Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses global market outlook and investment strategies, focusing on the implications of a weakening US dollar and its effects on various asset classes. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Stock Overweight**: The company is overweight on global stocks, particularly in Asia (excluding Japan), due to supportive monetary policies and a favorable economic outlook for the US, which is expected to experience a soft landing. [15][19][23] 2. **Weakening US Dollar**: A forecast of a weakening US dollar is made, which is expected to benefit the euro, yen, and pound. Historical data suggests that a weak dollar supports stock performance, especially for non-US equities. [15][18][19] 3. **Emerging Market Currency Bonds**: The company has upgraded emerging market local currency bonds to overweight, anticipating benefits from a weaker dollar and limited inflation risks in emerging markets. [15][24][50] 4. **Risks Identified**: Key risks include potential tariff increases, inflation, and weak economic data. The company highlights the importance of alternative investments like gold to mitigate temporary volatility. [15][26] 5. **Sector Preferences**: Specific sectors such as US software, major banks, and high-dividend stocks in Korea and China are favored. European stocks are also seen as attractive due to low valuations and expected fiscal support. [14][19] 6. **Geopolitical Risks**: Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are noted as potential risks that could impact energy prices and overall market stability. [13][26] 7. **Investment Strategy**: The company maintains a balanced approach between income-generating stocks and traditional growth stocks, with a focus on capturing capital gains while providing income to buffer against market volatility. [41][47] 8. **Gold as a Core Holding**: Gold is viewed as a core investment due to expected central bank demand and its role as a diversification tool when bonds underperform. [25][66] 9. **US Economic Outlook**: The US economy is expected to achieve a soft landing, supported by fiscal and monetary policies, despite some short-term volatility. [13][23] 10. **Investor Sentiment on Dollar Dominance**: There is a growing sentiment that the dominance of the US dollar may be challenged due to geopolitical shifts and trade diversification, although no credible alternative currency has emerged. [55][56][63] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Tariff Policy Uncertainty**: The potential extension of a tariff pause is discussed, with implications for trade negotiations and market sentiment. [13][29] 2. **Investor Behavior Changes**: There is an observed increase in foreign investors hedging against dollar risk, which may exert downward pressure on the dollar. [64] 3. **Long-term Debt Concerns**: The US federal debt is projected to reach 99% of GDP by 2024, raising concerns about the long-term attractiveness of US Treasuries as a safe asset. [63] 4. **Emerging Market Dynamics**: Emerging markets are expected to benefit from a weaker dollar and improving macroeconomic conditions, making them attractive for investment. [50][62] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the company's investment strategies and the broader economic landscape.

港交所文件显示，渣打集团(02888.HK)于7月10日在其他交易所耗资980万英镑回购了760,500股。 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 渣打集團有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年7月11日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02888 | 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | 佔有關事件前的 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 渣打集團有限公司 呈交日期： 2025年7月10日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02888 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存 ...

Core Viewpoint - The notion that the dollar's status as a global reserve currency is ending may be inaccurate, as reserve managers appear to be intentionally increasing their dollar holdings [1] Group 1: Global Forex Reserves - The total global foreign exchange reserves increased by $168 billion in the first quarter, with 54% of these reserves held in dollars [1] Group 2: Reserve Managers' Behavior - Reserve managers seem to be deliberately accumulating dollars during times of pressure to prevent larger appreciation of their local currencies [1] - There is a tendency for reserve managers to buy dollars when they are relatively cheap, anticipating potential market volatility in the future [1]

Group 1 - The ICE dollar index has experienced a significant decline of nearly 11% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest drop since the Nixon era in 1973 [1] - Experts predict that the dollar index is likely to continue its downward trend for the next 6 to 7 years, with potential lows below 71.3 or stabilizing around 80, depending on the performance of other economies [1] - The weakening dollar is expected to lead to a "stable but rising" trend in the RMB to USD exchange rate, which could attract more cross-border capital inflows and support the internationalization of the RMB [2][3] Group 2 - There is a noticeable trend of capital flowing out of the U.S., with many international stock markets outperforming U.S. markets this year, indicating a structural shift away from dollar assets [2] - The current global investment environment is characterized by uncertainty, with a focus on "de-dollarization" leading to increased capital inflows into emerging markets, particularly in Asia [3] - The outlook for Chinese assets remains positive, supported by favorable fiscal policies and a low-interest-rate environment, which is expected to attract more capital into the stock market [3]

Core Insights - The Standard Chartered Bank and the Hong Kong Trade Development Council released the latest GBA Business Sentiment Index, indicating that businesses in the Greater Bay Area remain resilient despite the impact of U.S. tariffs following the "Liberation Day" [1][2] - Approximately 75% to 80% of businesses in the Greater Bay Area reported negative impacts from U.S. tariffs, primarily due to delays in business plans and logistics disruptions [1][2] - The overall outlook for businesses has become more cautious, with the expectation index dropping from 54.3 in Q1 to 52.0 in Q2, marking the lowest level since Q4 2022, although still above the neutral level of 50 [2] Business Impact - 41% of respondents indicated they would delay business plans due to U.S. tariffs, while 35% reported severe disruptions in logistics or customs processes [2] - 30% of businesses experienced customer loss as clients shifted to markets less affected by tariffs, and 32% planned to increase domestic sales as a common response to the tariff impacts [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has accelerated order fulfillment and production in Q2, alongside advancements in artificial intelligence [2] Economic Outlook - The cautious sentiment among Greater Bay Area businesses is attributed to unclear overall business prospects, especially regarding trade policy developments after the expiration of tariff exemptions [2] - Hong Kong's economy showed steady expansion in Q1, highlighting the significant impact of international trade and tariff policies on the local economy [2] - The largest declines in the expectation sub-indices were seen in financing scale (-5.1 points), finished goods/service prices (-4.8 points), and production/sales (-2.6 points) [2]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's report emphasizes a positive outlook on global equities while being cautious about the US dollar's strength, suggesting a shift towards risk assets due to expected dollar weakness [2][3]. Global Stock Outlook - The bank continues to favor global stocks, particularly increasing the allocation to Asian equities (excluding Japan) due to the anticipated weakening of the dollar, which is expected to attract more capital into emerging markets [3][11]. - The chief investment officer for North Asia at Standard Chartered highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the global investment environment, with a structural risk of "de-dollarization" gaining attention [4]. Fixed Income Strategy - Standard Chartered expects the dollar's decline to enhance the appeal of emerging market local currency bonds, maintaining an overweight position in these assets [7]. - The bank views global bonds as a core portfolio component, favoring emerging market local currency government bonds while underweighting developed market investment-grade corporate bonds due to high valuations and economic uncertainty [9]. Currency Perspective - The bank predicts that cyclical factors will lead to a weaker dollar over the next 6-12 months, with the euro and yen likely benefiting from this trend [13]. - Despite the dollar's ongoing dominance, there are signs of a gradual erosion of its position due to changing trade flows and structural debt concerns [14][15]. Gold and Diversification - The report notes that gold is becoming increasingly attractive as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, with central banks, especially in emerging markets, increasing their gold purchases [18][19]. - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks believe that gold's share in global reserves will rise over the next five years, up from 69% in the previous year [18].

（原标题：渣打银行展望下半年全球市场：美元走弱或推动新兴市场资产配置） 在美国经济"软着陆"的基本情境下，渣打认为股票仍有进一步上行空间，因此对股市的看好程度略超固 定收益。在固定收益方面，美元走弱预期有助于增加对新兴市场本币债的配置。渣打还预计，美国机构 按揭抵押证券的表现将持续优于发达市场投资级政府债。 针对中国市场，得益于财政政策支持及美元可能走弱，渣打看好科技、通信服务和非必需消费品行业， 并维持超配中国股票的建议。渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰表示，相较于A股，港股（H 股）更具吸引力，主要受益于更低的估值、外资回流预期及与全球市场的更高联动性。 渣打对关键资产的观点具体如下： 债券：收益率存在"拉锯战"，对美联储减息的预期抵消了对美国预算赤字的担忧。渣打将全球债券作为 投资组合核心配置，超配新兴市场本币政府债。基于估值高企及美国经济增长不确定性导致收益率溢价 扩大风险，渣打低配发达市场投资级公司债。同时，看好新兴市场亚洲本币债、未对冲外汇风险的英国 国债和美国国库抗通胀债券。 股票：渣打维持超配全球股票的建议。贸易紧张局势缓和且盈利增长稳健，尽管关税带来影响，但通胀 仍受控。渣打将亚洲（除 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02888 | 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數 目 | | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 行股份（不包括庫存股 份）數目百分比 (註3) | 庫存股份數目 | | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) | 已發行股份總數 | | 於下列日期開始時的結存(註1) | 2025年7月7日 | | 2,332,695,051 | | | 0 | | 2,332,695,051 | | 1). 購回股份 (股份購回並註銷) | ...