Asia Pacific Equity Research 26 January 2026 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Zijin-A/H Key beneficiary with gold at 5k; Recent call takeaways reaffirming our constructive view We hosted Zijin Mining's IR representative for a call last Friday ...

January 28, 2026 09:29 AM GMT Zijin Mining Group | Asia Pacific What's in the price? Our analysis implies that Zijin Mining stock currently prices in gold at only US$4.1k/t (vs. spot US$50.8k/t) and copper at only $10k/t (vs. spot US $13.1k/t). Based on our increased estimates, 2026e P/E is 12x and EV/EBITDA is 7.9x. With its outlook for growth in both gold and copper production volume in the next few years, we view valuation as very attractive. High Growth with Very Attractive Valuation | What's Changed | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a remarkable performance from the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, which has surged over 35% in less than a month since the beginning of 2026, showcasing its strong momentum and dominance in the market [1][6]. Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index has outperformed other major non-ferrous indices, achieving a return of 159.49% since the beginning of 2025, compared to 145.36% for industrial non-ferrous, 141.56% for segmented non-ferrous, and 129.97% for non-ferrous metals overall [3]. - The index's unique "hardcore" compilation logic focuses on companies that own non-ferrous metal resources, allowing them to maximize profit margins during price increases, thus demonstrating higher profit elasticity compared to downstream sectors [3][4]. Group 2: Index Composition and Strategy - The index employs a balanced industry approach, covering all core metal categories such as copper, gold, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths, while ensuring that the top three companies by market capitalization in each segment are included, which helps capture various metal price movements and diversifies risk [4]. - The index is concentrated on leading companies, with a maximum of 40 constituent stocks, where the top ten account for over 55% of the total weight, ensuring strong offensive capability and elasticity during market rallies [4][5]. Group 3: Key Metal Allocations - The index's composition is strategically aligned with national priorities and future industry trends, with copper (31.48%) benefiting from global energy transitions and AI infrastructure, gold (14.33%) serving as a hedge against currency fluctuations, and aluminum (11.56%) supporting green transitions in the automotive and construction sectors [5]. - Other metals like silver (0.75%), rare earths (9.97%), lithium (8.17%), and cobalt (5.69%) are also included, reflecting a comprehensive approach to capturing cyclical fluctuations and participating in industrial transformations [5]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The current market environment presents a historic opportunity for the non-ferrous sector, driven by monetary easing, supply-demand dynamics, and global order changes, making the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Theme Index and its corresponding ETF products an efficient and transparent tool for investors to gain exposure to leading companies in the upstream non-ferrous mining sector [6].

Core Viewpoint - The continuous rise in gold prices has led to significant profit increases for gold mining companies, with a collective net profit forecast of 602 billion to 625 billion yuan for six companies in 2025, reflecting an average growth rate of at least 84% [3][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - Zijin Mining, holding the largest gold reserves, expects a net profit of 510 billion to 520 billion yuan for 2025, accounting for about 80% of the total among the six companies, with a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [5]. - China National Gold anticipates a net profit of 48 billion to 54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.76% to 59.48% [5]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold expects a net profit of 30 billion to 32 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 70% to 81% [6]. - Zhaojin Mining has the highest net profit growth rate at 242%, expecting a profit of 1.22 billion to 1.82 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 1.27 billion yuan in the previous year [5][6]. Group 2: Market Trends - As of January 29, international gold prices have risen for nine consecutive trading days, reaching a historical high of 5598 USD per ounce [8]. - The macroeconomic environment, including statements from the Federal Reserve regarding inflation and central bank independence, has catalyzed the demand for gold as a safe haven [8]. - Analysts predict that the upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and inflation expectations, with a systematic resonance in market behavior towards gold [8][10]. Group 3: Global Gold Demand - According to the World Gold Council, global gold investment demand reached 2175 tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 84%, with significant contributions from gold bars and coins [10]. - The demand for gold ETFs also saw a net increase of 801 tons for the year, indicating strong investor interest amid ongoing economic and geopolitical risks [10].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Zijin Mining (601899) will continue to increase its gold and copper production, with current valuation levels being highly attractive. The target price for H-shares has been raised from HKD 46.1 to HKD 59, and for A-shares from RMB 56, maintaining an "overweight" rating for both H-shares and A-shares [1] Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have surpassed Morgan Stanley's previous forecast of USD 4,750 per ounce for the second half of the year, with geopolitical risks, central bank signals, and ETF buying contributing to this trend. The bank emphasizes that under a bullish scenario, gold prices could reach USD 5,700 per ounce in the latter half of the year [1] Group 2: Copper Market Insights - Although Morgan Stanley had a positive outlook for metals, including copper, at the beginning of the year, prices have already exceeded the forecast of USD 12,200 per ton for the second quarter. The bank believes that supply tightness and a strong macroeconomic backdrop will continue to support copper prices, although short-term fluctuations may occur due to uncertainties in U.S. import trends and limited data from China before March [1] - The bank anticipates a supply deficit of approximately 600,000 tons in the copper market by 2026, with limited growth in mine supply being offset by new demand driven by data centers and energy storage systems [1]

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，紫金矿业(02899,601899.SH)将持续增加黄金与铜产量，当 前估值水平极具吸引力，H股目标价由46.1港元上调至59港元，A股目标价上调至56元人民币，并重申 对其H股及A股的"增持"评级。 金价已超越该行商品团队此前对下半年每盎司4,750美元的预测，但考虑到地缘政治风险、央行积极信 号及ETF买盘等因素，金价可能尚未见顶。该行强调其看涨情境下，金价有望于下半年触及每盎司 5,700美元。铜价方面，尽管年初已对包括铜在内的金属持正面展望，但价格已提前突破该行对第二季 度每吨12,200美元的预测。该行认为，供应紧张及强劲的宏观背景将继续支撑铜价，但受美国进口走势 不确定性及中国3月前数据有限影响，短期可能出现波动。预计2026年铜市将出现约60万吨的供应缺 口，有限的矿山供应增长将被数据中心及储能系统等新需求驱动所抵消。 ...

编辑丨张桔 1月28日，现货黄金价格首次站上5200美元/盎司关口，黄金亦斩获近6年最佳单周表现。从过去12个月 的价格表现看，国际金价飙升85%，而金价持续上涨的背后是地缘政治风险与通胀预期的支撑。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 文丨谢长艳 随着国际金价持续攀升，黄金板块迎来业绩与估值的双重驱动，尤其是黄金矿业股。以赛道龙头紫金矿 业为例，公司预告2025年归母净利润510亿元至520亿元，同比增幅近60%。此外，黄金零售企业与矿业 企业出现分化，但也凸显出黄金零售结构性的机会。以中国黄金为代表的零售企业因终端消费疲软业绩 预减，凸显出行业结构性机会。 1月27日，黄金板块再度走强，港股紫金矿业股价创出历史新高45.18港元。根据其最新公告显示，公司 控股子公司紫金黄金国际计划以44加元/股的现金价格，收购Allied Gold Corporation（"联合黄金"）全部 已发行的普通股，收购对价共计约55亿加元（约合人民币280亿元）。 美债遭减持 各国央行增持黄金 2026年以来，地缘事件纷至沓来，美国总统特朗普对于全球秩序的挑战加剧政治经济前景不确定性，国 ...

Group 1 - The company Zijin Mining plans to raise $1.5 billion through convertible bonds [1] - The funds raised will be used for various strategic initiatives, including potential acquisitions and expansion projects [1] - This move indicates the company's confidence in its growth prospects and the mining sector's recovery [1] Group 2 - The issuance of convertible bonds reflects a trend in the mining industry where companies seek alternative financing methods to support growth [1] - The mining sector is experiencing increased investor interest due to rising commodity prices and demand [1] - Zijin Mining's decision aligns with broader market trends where companies are leveraging capital markets to strengthen their financial positions [1]

文件：紫金矿业拟通过可转债筹集15亿美元资金。 ...

截至1月29日，已披露2025年业绩预告的6家金矿公司，净利润合计602亿元～625亿元。其中净利润增速 平均值至少达到84%。 随着金价的连续上涨，"家中有矿"的黄金股业绩继续大幅预增。 截至1月29日，已披露2025年业绩预告的6家金矿公司，净利润合计602亿元～625亿元。其中净利润增速 平均值至少达到84%。 今年以来，黄金价格继续"狂飙"，29日先冲上5400美元/盎司，不到半小时再突破5500美元/盎司， COMEX黄金盘中一度突破5600美元，最高触及5626.8美元/盎司，伦敦金现逼近5600美元，再创历史新 高。 紫金矿业是黄金公司中，拥有黄金储量最多的公司。该公司预计2025全年净利润区间为510亿元～520亿 元，在6家公司中净利润额占比约八成。净利润同比增幅达59%～62%。 中金黄金紧随其后，预计报告期内净利润为48亿元～54亿元，同比增长41.76%～59.48%；赤峰黄金预 计全年净利润30亿元～32亿元，同比增幅达70%～81%。 净利润增速方面，招金黄金净利同比增长率最高达到242%。该公司称，业绩变动原因为主营业务扭 亏，预计为1.22亿元～1.82亿元，上年同期亏损1.2 ...