Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a target price of HKD 64 for Kuaishou (01024.HK), with Q1 2025 performance meeting expectations, showing a year-on-year revenue increase of 11% and adjusted net profit growth of 4% [1] Financial Performance - Kuaishou's total revenue and adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 increased by 11% and 4% year-on-year, respectively, aligning with expectations [1] - The adjusted net profit margin stands at 14% [1] - E-commerce GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) grew by 15% year-on-year, also meeting expectations [1] Future Projections - For Q2 2025, e-commerce GMV is projected to increase by 14%, with influencer distribution potentially leading to a slight improvement in commission rates [1] - Advertising revenue is expected to see double-digit year-on-year growth, driven by improved infrastructure and local consumption [1] - The company anticipates that Kuaishou's revenue will exceed USD 100 million for the year [1] Valuation and Rating - CMB International maintains a profit forecast of RMB 20.3 billion for 2025 [1] - Given Kuaishou's advanced video generation capabilities and commercialization potential, a valuation premium is applied, resulting in a target price based on a 13x P/E ratio for 2025 [1] - The rating remains "Buy" with a target price of HKD 64 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a downward adjustment of Baidu's target price to HKD 96, while maintaining a "Buy" rating, due to the anticipated time required for AI monetization [1] Financial Performance - Baidu's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with strong results from its cloud business [1] - The company is expected to see a decline in advertising revenue by 11% and 12% year-on-year in Q2 and Q3 respectively, with an overall decrease of 9% to RMB 66 billion for the full year of 2025 [1] Business Segments - The report highlights a projected revenue growth rate of 30% for Baidu's cloud business by 2025 [1] - The AI search content coverage is expected to rapidly advance to over 50% due to cost optimization [1] Strategic Developments - Baidu's Robotaxi initiative is anticipated to accelerate its global expansion, with the number of vehicles expected to exceed 1,000 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International raises the target price for Tencent Holdings to HKD 604, citing stable performance and the development of its AI ecosystem as key factors for this adjustment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Tencent's first-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with profit growth continuing to outpace revenue growth [1] - The company is expected to see a 10% increase in total revenue for the second quarter, reaching RMB 1,778 billion, and a 9.6% increase for the full year, totaling RMB 7,235 billion [1] Group 2: AI Investment Impact - The report highlights that Tencent's investments in AI are beginning to show results, contributing to growth across various business ecosystems [1] - Increased capital expenditure and AI investments are anticipated to narrow the gap between operating profit and revenue, with profit growth still expected to outpace revenue growth [1] Group 3: Gaming Sector Outlook - The introduction of new games is expected to alleviate market concerns regarding high comparatives in the gaming sector for the second half of the year [1]

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The focus is on the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and its recovery following recent changes in global tariff policies, particularly between the US and China [1][5][34]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Policy Changes**: - The US has suspended a 24% "reciprocal tariff" on China and canceled all tariffs effective after April 8, 2025. This has reduced the US tariff level on China from a peak of 145% to 30%, while China's tariffs on the US have decreased from 125% to 10% [1][5][34]. - This development has significantly improved global risk sentiment, leading to a recovery in major stock indices, including the MSCI Global Index and the Hang Seng Index [1][20]. 2. **Market Recovery**: - The Hong Kong stock market has shown a continuous recovery since the announcement of the tariff changes, surpassing levels prior to the tariff announcement and exceeding the high point of October 2024 [1][6][34]. - The recovery is attributed mainly to a significant decline in risk premiums, while risk-free rates and corporate earnings expectations have remained relatively stable [15][34]. 3. **Sector Performance**: - Most sectors in the Hong Kong market have fully recovered in terms of price and valuation since the tariff announcement. Notably, sectors such as information technology, semiconductors, and consumer goods have shown strong performance [2][34]. - Defensive sectors like utilities and materials have also surpassed previous highs, indicating robust demand driven by domestic consumption [2][34]. 4. **Earnings Expectations**: - Overall, corporate earnings expectations have been minimally impacted by tariff policies, with most sectors maintaining stable earnings forecasts. Some cyclical sectors have seen slight downgrades, but the majority remain positive [2][42][34]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: - **Technology Innovation**: Emphasizing sectors like semiconductors and internet technology, which are expected to benefit from policy support and demand growth [3][58]. - **High Dividend Stocks**: In a low-interest environment, high dividend-paying stocks in banking, utilities, and telecommunications are recommended [3][58]. - **Policy Benefits**: Financial services firms like brokerages and insurance companies are expected to benefit from increased market activity and consumer support policies [3][58]. 6. **Market Sentiment and Risks**: - Despite the positive developments, investor sentiment remains cautious due to ongoing uncertainties regarding future tariff policies and the potential impact of US economic policies [26][51]. - The report highlights the need to monitor the market's response to these uncertainties, particularly in relation to retail investor sentiment and credit risk in the US [26][30]. Additional Important Content - The report emphasizes the importance of ongoing monitoring of global economic conditions and their potential impact on the Hong Kong market, particularly in light of the recent tariff negotiations and domestic policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and investment [51][52]. - The analysis includes various charts and data points illustrating the recovery of different sectors and the overall market sentiment, providing a comprehensive view of the current investment landscape in Hong Kong [37][39][57].

Core Viewpoint - The current wait-and-see approach of the Federal Reserve is deemed reasonable due to the potential impacts of tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the third consecutive meeting without changes [2]. - Economic indicators show a divergence, with the first quarter of 2025 experiencing a contraction in GDP for the first time in three years, primarily due to businesses rushing to import goods to avoid tariffs [2]. - The unemployment rate remains low at 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market that has yet to reflect the impacts of tariffs [2]. Inflation Concerns - Although CPI and PCE data have not yet shown upward trends, soft indicators such as consumer inflation expectations and price indices in manufacturing and services have significantly increased, indicating future inflation risks [3]. - The large-scale "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump have been paused for 90 days, but the outlook remains unclear, negatively affecting business and consumer confidence [3]. Federal Reserve's Strategy - Jerome Powell emphasized a "wait and see" approach, stating that the cost of waiting is currently the lowest, and highlighted the challenges posed by tariffs to the Fed's dual mandate of maximum employment and a 2% inflation target [3][4]. - The Fed's independence is under threat, with external pressures from the Trump administration potentially impacting the credibility of the dollar [4]. - Market expectations for the timing of the first rate cut have shifted from June to July, with projections for a total of three rate cuts remaining intact for the year [4].

Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a loss attributable to shareholders of HKD 1,231 million, compared to a loss of HKD 1,469 million in 2023, indicating a reduction in losses[11]. - Total revenue and other income for 2024 was HKD 613 million, a significant decrease from HKD 1,797 million in 2023[11]. - The company’s total assets decreased to HKD 14,515 million in 2024 from HKD 18,211 million in 2023, reflecting a decline of approximately 20%[15]. - The company’s total liabilities decreased to HKD 13,632 million in 2024 from HKD 16,414 million in 2023, showing a reduction of approximately 17%[15]. - The company’s basic/diluted loss per share for 2024 was HKD 0.66, compared to HKD 0.32 in 2023, indicating a worsening in per-share performance[13]. - The company’s total equity attributable to shareholders was HKD 387,514 million in 2024, down from HKD 1,231 million in 2023[15]. - The company reported a loss of HKD 1,231.4 million for 2024, an improvement from a loss of HKD 1,469.5 million in 2023[21]. - The company’s total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was HKD 387.5 million, down from HKD 613.2 million in 2023[39]. - The operating expenses and financing costs for the year ended December 31, 2024, were HKD 1,622.8 million, a decrease of 23.0% from HKD 2,075.3 million in 2023[40]. Business Operations and Strategy - The company aims to enhance its business product system and expand new revenue streams in 2025, focusing on sustainable development and supporting national strategies[19]. - The company is focusing on strategic transformation and improving internal control management to reduce operational losses and enhance business capabilities[18]. - The company is actively responding to the Hong Kong government's innovation and technology development blueprint, collaborating with Taiping Financial Holdings to manage a USD innovation fund[18]. - The company aims to enhance its financial services by focusing on technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance[63]. - The company has been actively involved in various subsidiaries, indicating a strategy of diversification and growth through multiple business avenues[72][74]. Client and Revenue Insights - Commission and fee income from the securities brokerage business reached HKD 91.2 million in 2024, an increase of HKD 9.6 million or 11.7% compared to 2023[23]. - The number of margin accounts increased to 9,741 in 2024, while the interest income from margin loans decreased to HKD 60.1 million, down HKD 49.0 million or 44.9% from 2023[25]. - The average monthly balance of margin loans decreased to HKD 1,067.4 million in 2024 from HKD 1,727.0 million in 2023[26]. - Major clients accounted for less than 30% of total revenue, suggesting a diversified client base[92]. - Major suppliers accounted for less than 30% of total procurement, indicating a stable supply chain[93]. Investments and Financial Assets - The company’s investment fund, the "Jiaoyin International Longteng Core Growth Fund," achieved a return of 17.34%, ranking in the top third of similar products in the Hong Kong market[31]. - The company established 18 QFLP funds and one QDIE fund, with the QFLP funds being the first of their kind set up in Hainan and Qingdao[31]. - The company holds a significant investment in Amber Leading Fund, L.P. with a commitment amount of HKD 232 million, representing 4.92% of Amber's total commitment[57]. - The initial cost of the investment in Amber was HKD 230 million, with a current fair value assessment of HKD 785 million, accounting for 5.4% of the group's total assets[57]. - The investment generated an unrealized gain of HKD 3 million during the year, classified as financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss[57]. Risk Management and Governance - The company has implemented sufficient internal approval and supervision procedures regarding related party transactions to protect shareholders' interests[111]. - The company has a commitment to maintaining high standards of corporate governance, as evidenced by the diverse backgrounds of its board members[77][78][80]. - The company has established a three-tier risk management framework, including the Board, Risk Management Committee, and relevant middle and back office[180]. - The company is committed to maintaining effective risk management and internal control procedures to monitor and manage key risks[180]. - The board confirmed the effectiveness and adequacy of the group's risk management and internal control systems[184]. Leadership and Management - The company appointed Xie Jie as the CEO and Executive Director in March 2024, succeeding Zhu Chen who served as CEO from July 2022 to March 2024[72]. - Wang Xianjia was promoted to Executive Director and Vice President in December 2023, having previously served as a Non-Executive Director since June 2022[74]. - The company has a strong leadership team with extensive experience in the banking and finance sectors, including key positions held at major financial institutions[72][74]. - The leadership transition aims to strengthen the company's strategic direction and operational efficiency in the competitive financial market[72][74]. - The board's composition reflects a balance of experience and independence, which is crucial for effective decision-making and risk management[77][78][80]. Corporate Social Responsibility and Sustainability - The company is committed to sustainable development and has established an ESG management framework to integrate sustainability into daily operations[135]. - The corporate social responsibility report for the fiscal year 2024 is the eighth report issued by the company, focusing on sustainability and stakeholder concerns[197]. - The reporting scope of the corporate social responsibility report is primarily based in Hong Kong, covering the period from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2024[198]. - The report was prepared in accordance with the principles of importance, quantification, balance, and consistency as outlined in the Environmental, Social, and Governance Reporting Guidelines[199]. Shareholder Engagement and Communication - The company has adopted a dividend policy aimed at providing stable and sustainable returns to shareholders[189]. - Shareholders can communicate with the board through the company secretary and submit written inquiries at any time[192]. - The company encourages shareholder participation in the annual general meeting, providing opportunities for direct communication with the board[187]. - The company utilizes various communication channels, including its website and investor meetings, to keep shareholders informed[186].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that domestic brands continue to dominate the Chinese passenger car market, with a projected market share of approximately 60% in 2024, showcasing strong capabilities in smart driving, intelligent cockpits, and high-speed charging technologies [1][2] - The upcoming Shanghai Auto Show will feature 97 models, with 41 new models, and domestic brands will account for 46% of the exhibits, highlighting their leading role [2] - The competition in the mid-to-large SUV segment is intensifying, with a significant increase in retail sales projected for 2024, particularly in the large and mid-large SUV market, which is expected to see a 52.5% year-on-year growth [3] Group 2 - The acceleration of smart technology adoption is evident, with companies like Lynk & Co and Leap Motor introducing advanced driving systems and high-performance chips into their vehicles, indicating a trend towards greater accessibility of smart driving features [4] - The introduction of high-voltage fast charging systems by multiple manufacturers, including BYD and NIO, reflects a shift towards more efficient charging solutions in the electric vehicle market [4] - The presence of key component suppliers at the auto show, such as CATL, emphasizes the importance of partnerships in driving innovation and expanding the electric vehicle infrastructure [4]

根据国家统计局公布的70大中城市商品住宅价格指数，2025年2月新建商品住宅价格同比/环比分别下跌 5.2%/0.1%(2025年1月：-5.4%/-0.1%)，二手商品住宅价格同比/环比跌幅也有所好转，分别下跌 7.5%/0.3%(2025年1月：-7.8%/-0.3%)。 政府工作报告再提明确行业止跌回稳目标，料后续楼市持续修复 3月国务院政府工作报告首次将"稳住楼市股市"写入年度经济工作要求，并再次强调要"持续用力推动房 地产市场止跌回稳"。交银国际认为，当前国家的整体政策重心已从短期救市逐渐转向长效机制建设， 通过存量盘活、金融支持和需求松绑等推动行业转型。尽管3月的销售情况同比仍略有承压，但在低基 数的背景下，预计"银四"市场或将持续修复，应持续关注各线城市之间、国企与民企之间的分化情况。 投资启示 智通财经APP获悉，交银国际发布研报称，根据克而瑞的初步数据，2025年3月前百开发商的全口径销 售总额由2月的1,981亿元环比提升73.9%至3,445亿元。据跟踪的23家主要上市开发商3月销售额也明显 复苏，环比提升67.6%，其中多数开发商同比跌幅均有所收窄。尽管3月的销售情况同比仍略有承压， ...

Financial Performance - For the year ending December 31, 2024, the company reported total revenue of HKD 387,514,000, a decrease of 36.8% compared to HKD 613,177,000 in 2023[3] - The company recorded a total operating loss of HKD 1,235,239,000, an improvement from a loss of HKD 1,462,144,000 in 2023[4] - The net loss attributable to shareholders for the year was HKD 1,231,356,000, compared to a loss of HKD 1,469,500,000 in the previous year, reflecting a 16.2% improvement[4] - Total revenue for the year ended December 31, 2024, was HKD 387,514,000, a decrease from HKD 613,177,000 for the year ended December 31, 2023, representing a decline of approximately 37%[19] - The total expenses for the year ended December 31, 2024, amounted to HKD 1,622,753,000, compared to HKD 2,075,321,000 for the previous year, indicating a reduction of approximately 22%[19][21] - The pre-tax loss for the year ended December 31, 2024, was HKD 1,233,368,000, compared to a loss of HKD 1,444,717,000 for the year ended December 31, 2023[19][21] Revenue Breakdown - Commission and fee income increased to HKD 179,446,000, up 25.7% from HKD 142,704,000 in the previous year[3] - The brokerage segment generated external commission and fee income of HKD 91,155,000, while the corporate finance and underwriting segment contributed HKD 51,478,000 for the year ended December 31, 2024[19] - Interest income from external sources for the investment and loan segment was HKD 258,464,000, contributing to a total interest income of HKD 318,570,000[19] - The company reported a significant decrease in revenue from external customers in Hong Kong, which fell to HKD 206,166,000 in 2024 from HKD 333,818,000 in 2023[21] - The revenue from external customers in mainland China also decreased to HKD 181,348,000 in 2024 from HKD 279,359,000 in 2023[21] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets decreased to HKD 14,515,167,000 from HKD 18,211,046,000, representing a decline of 20.2%[8] - The company's total liabilities decreased to HKD 13,632,419,000, down from HKD 16,414,406,000, a reduction of 17.1%[9] - The company’s equity attributable to shareholders decreased to HKD 882,748,000 from HKD 1,796,640,000, a decline of 50.1%[8] - The net amount of loans and advances decreased to HKD 674,989,000 in 2024 from HKD 1,040,443,000 in 2023, a decline of 35.0%[33] - As of December 31, 2024, the group's total borrowings amounted to HKD 11,649.0 million, down from HKD 14,149.0 million in 2023[68] Cash Flow and Financing - The company's cash and bank balances increased to HKD 1,577,935,000, up from HKD 1,299,438,000, indicating a growth of 21.5%[8] - Total financing costs decreased to HKD 552,387,000 in 2024 from HKD 717,671,000 in 2023, a reduction of 23.0%[25] - The group's cash and bank balances increased by HKD 278.5 million to HKD 1,577.9 million as of December 31, 2024[68] - The group's leverage ratio, calculated as total borrowings divided by total equity, was 1,319.6% as of December 31, 2024, compared to 787.5% in 2023[69] Employee and Operational Costs - Employee costs increased to HKD 410,853,000 in 2024 from HKD 397,982,000 in 2023, an increase of 3.2%[27] - The total employee cost for the year ending December 31, 2024, reached approximately HKD 410.9 million, with a total of 541 employees[82] - The group's operating expenses and financing costs for the year ended December 31, 2024, were HKD 1,622.8 million, a decrease of 21.9% from HKD 2,075.3 million in 2023[62] Risk Management and Governance - The group faces significant risks including currency risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk, which require thorough assessment and mitigation strategies[72][73][74][75][76] - The company has strengthened its risk management for margin financing in response to rising credit risks and market volatility[45] - The company has adopted the Corporate Governance Code and has complied with all relevant provisions during the reporting year[89] Future Outlook and Strategy - The global economic outlook for 2025 indicates a mix of monetary policy easing and structural challenges, with expectations of continued moderate growth in Hong Kong's economy[84] - The company plans to focus on five key areas: technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, to enhance its service offerings and risk management capabilities[85] Miscellaneous - The company did not have any customer contributing more than 10% to total revenue[17] - The company has no major capital commitments or contingent liabilities as of December 31, 2024[81][83] - The company does not recommend a final dividend for the year[87] - There were no significant acquisitions or disposals of subsidiaries, associates, or joint ventures during the reporting period[78] - The annual general meeting is scheduled for June 2025, with further details to be announced[94] - The board of directors includes non-executive directors Mr. Xiao Ting, Mr. Shan Zengjian, and Ms. Zhu Chen; executive directors Mr. Xie Jie, Mr. Wang Xianjia, and Mr. Tan Yueheng; and independent non-executive directors Mr. Xie Yonghai, Mr. Ma Ning, and Mr. Lin Zhijun[97]

3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议开幕，国务院总理李强作政府工作报告。全国政协委员、香港立法会 议员、交银国际董事谭岳衡表示，今天上午列席了全国人大开幕会，聆听了李强总理的政府工作报告， 感触比较深的一点是关于2025年主要发展目标的预期指标，国内生产总值增长定在5%左右。 第四，要达成5%目标，宏观政策上今年要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，扎实推动高质量发展，扩大高水 平对外开放，建设现代产业体系，特别是实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，推动科技创新和产业融合。要 尽快充实完善政策工具箱，实施更加积极的财政政策，财政赤字提升1个百分点到4%，财政政策持续用 力、更加给力。按时间节奏，尽早安排发行特别国债，安排地方政府专项债，新增政府债务总规模。同 时实施适度宽松的货币政策，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，保持社会融资规模、货币供应量的合理 增长。在经济政策配套上，还要下大力气促消费，以消费提振和畅通经济循环，以消费升级引领产业升 级，打好政策的组合拳，使财政货币政策、就业政策、产业政策、区域政策方方面面协同配合起来，增 强政策的合力，用好用足这些宏观经济政策，紧紧抓住高质量发展这个主题，坚持以质取胜和发挥规模 效应相统一， ...