Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks are experiencing significant declines, with major companies like China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy reporting drops in their stock prices amid a backdrop of falling coal prices and mixed quarterly performance [1] Company Performance - China Coal Energy reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.86 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year decrease of 21.9%, but the decline is less severe compared to a 31.5% drop in the first half of the year [1] - China Shenhua Energy's net profit for Q3 was 14.411 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [1] Market Trends - Coal prices are expected to continue to decline year-on-year through the first three quarters of 2025, although there has been a noticeable recovery in Q3 compared to previous quarters [1] - The current coal prices are nearing short-term peaks, with expectations of a slight decline as winter approaches, although the overall decline space is limited [1] - The fundamental shift in the supply-demand dynamics of the coal industry since May is identified as the core reason for the recent price increases, indicating a long-term upward trend in coal prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the coal economy is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance. It is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels [11]. - The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged. The coal price has established a bottom and its central level has reached a new platform. High - quality coal enterprises maintain their core asset attributes, and coal assets are still undervalued with potential for valuation improvement. The coal sector has both dividend characteristics and pro - cyclical elasticity [3]. - In the context of energy inflation, the pattern of tight coal supply and demand in the next 3 - 5 years remains unchanged. High - quality coal enterprises have high - barrier, high - cash, high - dividend, and high - dividend - yield attributes. After a short - term correction, the coal sector has shown high investment value [3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Core Viewpoints and Key Concerns - **Core Viewpoints**: In the short - term, coal supply and demand are basically balanced, but there is a long - term gap. Coal prices are expected to rise further due to tight supply and upcoming seasonal demand. Coal assets are cost - effective, with high win - rate and high odds. The report continues to be bullish on coal and suggests allocation at low levels [11]. - **Key Concerns**: From January to October 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 11.0% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, coal and coking coal imports in India decreased by 1.0% year - on - year, and in Japan decreased by 2.3% year - on - year [13] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 4.43% this week, outperforming the market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.82% [14]. - The thermal coal sector rose 4.60%, the coking coal sector rose 2.46%, and the coke sector rose 6.42% [15]. - The top three stocks in terms of gains and losses in the coal mining and washing sector were Huayang Co., Ltd. (11.50%), Jinkong Coal Industry (10.11%), and China National Coal Group Corporation (8.54%) [18] 3.3 Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of November 7, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 703.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 694.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term contract price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 684.0 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [23]. - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of November 8, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) from Shanxi was 808 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. International thermal coal FOB prices also increased [29]. - **Coking Coal Price**: As of November 7, the ex - warehouse price of primary coking coal from Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1800 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CIF price of Australian Peak View Mine hard coking coal in China was 212.3 US dollars/ton, up 0.6 US dollars/ton week - on - week [31]. - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: As of November 7, the wagon - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite was 1020.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The wagon - loading prices of pulverized coal in Changzhi Lucheng and Yangquan increased [39] 3.4 Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 91.1%, up 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 83.76%, down 1.0 percentage points week - on - week [46]. - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of November 7, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal thermal coal was - 79.1 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price difference for 4000 - kcal thermal coal was - 75.2 yuan/ton, down 20.1 yuan/ton week - on - week [42]. - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces' coal inventory increased, while daily consumption decreased. Coastal 8 provinces' coal inventory decreased, while daily consumption increased [45]. - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of November 7, the Myspic comprehensive steel price index decreased, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke increased, the blast furnace operating rate increased, and the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises increased [64][65]. - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of November 7, the prices of urea in some regions decreased, the national methanol, ethylene glycol, and acetic acid price indices decreased, the synthetic ammonia price index increased, the cement price index increased slightly, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry increased [70][74][76] 3.5 Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of November 7, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased to 577.0 tons. The 55 - port thermal coal inventory decreased to 6148.7 tons as of October 31, and the production - area inventory decreased to 292.0 tons [91]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of November 7, the production - area coking coal inventory increased to 165.6 tons, the six - port coking coal inventory increased to 304.3 tons, the coking enterprise inventory increased to 923.8 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased to 787.3 tons [92]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of November 7, the total coke inventory of coking plants, four - port coke inventory, and the total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills all decreased [94] 3.6 Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of November 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2104.0 points, up 138.0 points week - on - week. As of November 6, the average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway increased slightly week - on - week [108]. - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of November 7, the inventory of four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1449.0 tons, the number of anchored ships was 106, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 13.7, down 4.03 week - on - week [106] 3.7 Weather Conditions - As of November 7, the Three Gorges outflow was 10200 cubic meters per second, down 23.88% week - on - week. - In the next 10 days (November 9 - 18), there will be precipitation in some areas, with high - impact weather including cooling in Xinjiang and central - eastern regions. - In the next 11 - 14 days (November 19 - 22), there will be light precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some regions will be different from the normal level [113] 3.8 Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table provides the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratios of key listed coal companies from 2024A to 2027E [114]. - **Key Announcements**: Companies such as Meijin Energy, China Shenhua, and Hengyuan Coal and Electricity have made announcements regarding project terminations, asset acquisitions, and corporate restructurings [115][116][118]

FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 03668 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | | 1,320,439,437 | | 0 | | 1,320,439,437 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | 0 | | 0 | | | | 本月底結存 | | | | 1,320,439,437 | | 0 | | 1,320,439,437 | 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年10月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: Yancoal Australia Lt ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that coal stocks in the Hong Kong market are experiencing a continued upward trend, driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints due to safety inspections and production policies [1] - Recent extreme cold weather in northern China has led to a significant drop in temperatures, with Heilongjiang's Mohe reaching -25°C, marking a historical low for late October, and parts of Inner Mongolia dropping below -30°C, indicating the start of the coal consumption peak season [1] - Demand for coal is expected to remain high as steel mills and thermal power companies continue to have strong needs, which, combined with supply-side constraints, is likely to stabilize and push coal prices upward [1] Group 2 - According to Guoxin Securities, while coal prices declined in early 2024 leading to poor profits for coal companies, a rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025, which could improve profitability for coal enterprises [1] - The coal sector has underperformed compared to other sectors, but there is a clear bottoming out, and a rebound in the fourth quarter is expected [1] - Specific coal stocks have shown notable price increases, with Hengding Industrial rising nearly 8%, and China Coal Energy reaching its highest price since 2011, indicating strong market performance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a recovery phase driven by seasonal demand and supply-side policies that restrict overproduction, leading to a stabilization and potential increase in coal prices [1][6][10]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - A significant drop in temperatures across northern regions has initiated the heating season, increasing coal demand from steel mills and thermal power plants [1]. - The coal price has been rising due to high demand and supply-side policies aimed at reducing overproduction, with the Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal price increasing from 621 RMB/ton to 699 RMB/ton from June to September 2025, a rise of 12.6% [6][10]. - The coal market is expected to benefit from seasonal demand as heating needs rise, with predictions of a colder winter potentially boosting coal procurement [10][11]. Group 2: Company Performance - Major coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy have shown signs of improvement in their financial metrics, with China Shenhua's Q3 revenue decline narrowing to 12.56% year-on-year, compared to a 16.05% decline in the first half of the year [2][5]. - China Shenhua's coal business gross margin improved from 29.4% to 30.5% due to effective cost control, while China Coal Energy's net profit rebounded by 28.3% quarter-on-quarter despite a slight year-on-year decline [2][3]. - Yanzhou Coal Mining Company reported a 4.92% increase in coal production year-on-year for Q3 2025, indicating stable operational performance amidst industry challenges [9]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - The coal sector has seen a significant influx of capital, with over 2 billion RMB net inflow into coal stocks in October, making it one of the hottest sectors in the secondary market [1]. - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the coal sector is currently at 14.82, indicating that the sector is undervalued compared to historical standards, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [12]. - High dividend payouts from major coal companies, such as China Shenhua's interim dividend of 0.98 RMB per share, reflect strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns, enhancing the sector's attractiveness [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong Dividend ETF, which has seen a 20.92% increase in net value over the past six months, with an average daily trading volume of 17.52 million HKD [2] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF closely tracks the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index, which selects 30 high-dividend, liquid stocks from Hong Kong listed companies [2] - The current policy environment encourages companies to distribute dividends, creating favorable conditions for dividend investments, especially as risk-free interest rates decline [2] Group 2 - According to Zhongtai Securities, the future performance of the Hong Kong stock market will heavily depend on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and international relations, with a continued flow of funds into high-dividend, low-valuation defensive sectors expected [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index account for 46.3% of the index, indicating a concentration in specific high-dividend stocks [3] - The top ten stocks include China COSCO Shipping, Yancoal Australia, and China Petroleum, with varying weightings and recent performance [5]

Group 1 - The coal stocks in the Hong Kong market experienced a collective surge, with notable increases in smaller coal companies such as Feishang Non-Smoking Coal, which saw a price increase of 108.33% [1][2] - Major coal companies also reported gains, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company which rose over 5%, and China Qinfa Group which increased by 4.8% [1][2] - The recent extreme cold weather in northern China, with temperatures dropping to historical lows, has triggered the seasonal demand for coal, marking the beginning of the peak consumption period [1] Group 2 - The coal market faced a generally loose supply and insufficient demand in the first half of 2025, leading to a downward trend in coal prices [1] - However, the current seasonal demand and policy-driven supply reductions may create a shift in the supply-demand balance, potentially providing an opportunity for the coal sector to recover from its low valuation [1]

Group 1 - The coal sector in Hong Kong has seen a general increase, with China Shenhua reaching a new high price, rising by 6% [1] - According to Guotai Junan's research report, the coal sector has confirmed a cyclical bottom expected in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics and sufficient release of downside risks [1] - Coal prices have exceeded 770 RMB/ton since the upward trend began on September 15, showing an unexpected increase driven by multiple favorable factors [1] Group 2 - Guosen Securities reports that while coal prices declined and profits for coal companies were poor in early 2024, a rebound in coal prices is expected in the second half of 2025, leading to improved profits for coal companies [1] - The coal sector has underperformed compared to other sectors, but a clear bottom has been established, and a rebound in Q4 is anticipated [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong Dividend Low Volatility ETF (520890) closed down 0.89% with a trading volume of 37.99 million yuan on October 28, 2024 [1] - The fund was established on September 4, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10% [1] - As of October 27, 2024, the fund's latest share count was 74.008 million, with a total size of 108 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 39.83% in shares and 26.31% in size year-to-date [1] Fund Performance - The current fund manager, Li Qian, has managed the fund since its inception, achieving a return of 45.70% during her tenure [2] - The fund's performance benchmark is the Hang Seng Stock Connect High Dividend Low Volatility Index [1] Holdings and Liquidity - The top holdings of the fund include Shougang Resources, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy, with respective weightings of 3.76%, 2.94%, and 2.17% [2] - Over the last 20 trading days, the fund's cumulative trading amount reached 1.311 billion yuan, with an average daily trading amount of 65.55 million yuan [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco Great Wall National Index Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Low Volatility ETF (159569) has shown significant growth in both share volume and fund size in 2024, indicating strong investor interest and performance [1][2]. Fund Overview - The fund was established on August 14, 2024, with an annual management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.08% [1]. - As of October 24, 2024, the fund's share volume reached 243 million, with a total size of 334 million yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, the fund's share volume has increased by 114.89%, and its size has grown by 158.55% compared to December 31, 2024 [1]. Liquidity Analysis - Over the last 20 trading days, the ETF has accumulated a total trading volume of 807 million yuan, averaging 40.34 million yuan per day [1]. - Since the beginning of the year, the total trading volume has reached 7.729 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 39.43 million yuan over 196 trading days [1]. Fund Management - The current fund managers are Gong Lili and Wang Yang, with Gong managing the fund since August 29, 2024, achieving a return of 40.59%, while Wang has managed it since August 13, 2025, with a return of 0.07% [2]. Top Holdings - The ETF's top holdings include: - Orient Overseas International: 9.65% [3] - China COSCO Shipping: 7.14% [3] - Yancoal Australia: 5.43% [3] - Yanzhou Coal Mining: 4.73% [3] - Seaspan Corporation: 4.36% [3] - China Hongqiao Group: 3.10% [3] - Sinopec: 3.08% [3] - CNOOC: 3.03% [3] - Minsheng Bank: 3.01% [3] - China Everbright Bank: 3.01% [3]