Core Viewpoint - Cathay Securities expects GCL-Poly Energy (03800) to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 306 million yuan and 1.37 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027 respectively, with EPS of 0.01 yuan and 0.05 yuan per share, and BPS of 1.24 yuan and 1.29 yuan per share for the same years [1] Financial Projections - The company is projected to have a significant performance recovery in the second half of 2025, supported by favorable price trends [1] - The cash costs of granular silicon (including R&D) for Q1 and Q2 of 2025 are expected to be 27.07 yuan/kg and 25.31 yuan/kg respectively, showing a continuous downward trend [1] Product Quality and Market Position - Continuous process optimization, technological improvements, and material iterations have led to stable quality enhancements in granular silicon products, increasing customer adhesion to the company's products [1] - According to Infolink, the transaction price of granular silicon is expected to exceed traditional N-type dense block materials for the first time in July 2025 [1] Price Trends and Industry Regulations - The average price of N-type granular silicon increased from 33,500 yuan/ton on June 25 to 48,000 yuan/ton on September 3, marking a 43% increase [1] - A meeting held by six departments on August 19 aimed to further regulate the photovoltaic industry, combatting illegal practices such as selling below cost and false marketing, which is expected to support stable price increases for silicon materials [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Junan expects GCL-Poly Energy (03800) to achieve net profits of 306 million and 1.37 billion yuan for the years 2026 and 2027 respectively, with EPS of 0.01 and 0.05 yuan per share, and BPS of 1.24 and 1.29 yuan per share [1] Financial Projections - The company is projected to have a cash cost for granular silicon of 27.07 yuan/kg in Q1 2025 and 25.31 yuan/kg in Q2 2025, indicating a continuous decline [1] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, assigning a 1.2x PB for 2025 based on comparable companies [1] Market Trends - The average price of N-type granular silicon increased from 33,500 yuan/ton on June 25 to 48,000 yuan/ton on September 3, marking a 43% increase [1] - The price of granular silicon is expected to rise due to regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing the photovoltaic industry and combating illegal practices such as selling below cost [1] Product Quality and Customer Demand - Continuous optimization of processes and technological advancements have led to improved quality of granular silicon products, enhancing customer adhesion to the company's products [1] - The transaction price of granular silicon is expected to surpass that of traditional N-type dense block materials by July 2025, reflecting the superior purity and stability of the company's products [1]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution bull" is seen as a crucial opportunity for the market to switch between the two halves of the bull market, with the first half driven by financial re-inflation and the second half by real asset re-inflation, leading to a return of blue-chip stocks driven by both valuation and performance [2][11][12] - The recent policy shift from the central government marks a significant turning point for "anti-involution," which is expected to drive inflation recovery and facilitate the transition between the two halves of the bull market [2][11][14] - The improvement in local government finances has provided the central government with the confidence to implement policies effectively, as evidenced by the recovery in land auction activities and the narrowing decline in land transfer revenues [2][11][14] Group 2 - The recent two months have seen a strengthening of policy determination from the top down, alongside an increase in corporate willingness to cooperate from the bottom up, alleviating previous market concerns regarding the execution of "anti-involution" policies [3][28][29] - The central government's intervention has shifted from industry association-led self-regulation to more direct involvement, with significant policy announcements aimed at curbing irrational competition in key sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles [3][29][32] - Corporations, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, have begun to respond positively to "anti-involution" initiatives, with major companies committing to production cuts and inventory control to align with industry-wide efforts [3][33][34] Group 3 - Industries that are expected to benefit from "anti-involution" include glass fiber, coal, energy metals, cement, commercial vehicles, and wind power equipment, identified through various criteria such as state-owned enterprise ratios and industry concentration [3][38] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price elasticity and tax implications in identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" strategy, with a focus on cyclical resource products [3][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "B" for the new materials sector, indicating a leading position in the market [2]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has experienced a decline, with the new materials index falling by 0.31%, underperforming compared to the ChiNext index which dropped by 2.67% [4]. - The report highlights the potential of Direct Air Capture (DAC) technology, which has been recognized by the Shanghai government as a key technology for 2025, suggesting significant market opportunities in domestic adsorption materials and equipment [7]. Market Performance - The new materials sector saw varied performance across sub-sectors: - Synthetic biology index decreased by 0.51% - Semiconductor materials fell by 4.74% - Electronic chemicals dropped by 1.54% - Biodegradable plastics increased slightly by 0.02% - Industrial gases decreased by 1.20% - Battery chemicals surged by 13.36% [4][19]. Price Tracking - Weekly price changes for key chemical products include: - Valine: 12,750 CNY/ton (-1.92%) - Arginine: 22,900 CNY/ton (-1.08%) - Tryptophan: 39,500 CNY/ton (-4.82%) - Methionine: 22,050 CNY/ton (-0.68%) - PLA (injection grade): 17,800 CNY/ton (unchanged) - PLA (blown film grade): 17,200 CNY/ton (unchanged) [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on DAC technology and related materials and equipment, highlighting companies such as Blue Sky Technology, Jianlong Micro-Nano, and Xizhuang Co., among others, as potential investment opportunities [8].

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy reported a significant decline in revenue and a net loss for the first half of 2025, indicating challenges in the current market environment [1] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.735 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 35.30% [1] - The net loss for the period was 1.776 billion yuan [1] - Financial asset impairment losses amounted to 264 million yuan, an increase from 196 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The company recognized losses from joint ventures totaling 250 million yuan, primarily from Kunshan GCL (69 million yuan), Zhonghuan GCL (66 million yuan), and Xuzhou Risen (83 million yuan) [1] - Administrative expenses were 625 million yuan, reflecting an 8.5% year-on-year reduction, indicating effective cost control [1] Product and Market Performance - The market share of granular silicon reached 24.32% in H1 2025, up from 14.58% in 2024, showing significant improvement [1] - The average selling price of granular silicon decreased to 32,900 yuan per ton in Q2 2025 from 35,700 yuan per ton in Q1 2025 due to domestic installation pullback [1] - The cash cost of granular silicon was optimized to 25,300 yuan per ton in Q2 2025, down from 27,100 yuan per ton in Q1 2025 [1] - The company’s granular silicon production capacity stood at 480,000 tons by the end of H1 2025 [1] Product Quality and Future Outlook - The quality of products is steadily improving, with 95% of products meeting the impurity content standard of ≤0.5 ppbw [1] - In June, the company initiated a new impurity detection standard for products with ≤0.3 ppbw, achieving over 75% compliance in the first month [1] - The turbidity of products has reached over 98% for ≤100 NTU and improved to over 57% for ≤70 NTU [1] - With the recent recovery in polysilicon prices and ongoing cost optimization, the company is expected to be among the first to achieve a turnaround in performance [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology by leading companies such as EVE Energy, Putailai, and Xiamen Tungsten, benefiting from advancements in the energy storage sector [1][3] - A new supply-demand cycle is anticipated in the industry, emphasizing the importance of leading companies and flexible strategies [2] Group 1: Solid-State Battery Developments - EVE Energy's solid-state battery research institute in Chengdu has unveiled the "Longquan No. 2" all-solid-state battery, featuring a capacity of 10Ah and an energy density of 300Wh/kg, aimed at humanoid robots [1][3] - The Chengdu facility is being constructed in two phases, with the first phase expected to be completed by December 2025, achieving a manufacturing capacity of 60Ah batteries [3] - The solid-state battery industry aims to reach an energy density of 400Wh/kg and 1000Wh/L by 2025, accelerating the industrialization process [3] Group 2: Energy Storage Market Growth - Global energy storage battery shipments are projected to reach 258GWh in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 106% [1][4] - Chinese companies dominate the global energy cell shipment rankings, holding all top ten positions and accounting for 91.2% of the global market share [1][4] - Emerging overseas markets, such as Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Chile, have seen Chinese companies secure 199 new overseas energy storage orders, totaling over 160GWh, a year-on-year growth of 220.28% [4] Group 3: Photovoltaic and Silicon Industry Insights - The Chinese energy storage sector continues to gain global market share, with companies like CATL, Sungrow, EVE Energy, and others benefiting from this trend [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan to eliminate "involution" competition in the photovoltaic sector, promoting orderly development and capacity management [4][5] - China's polysilicon production reached 596,000 tons in the first half of 2025, with GCL-Poly's granular silicon cash cost dropping to 25.31 yuan/kg, potentially leading to profitability by August-September [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide specific ratings for sub-industries such as power station equipment, electrical equipment, power supply equipment, and new energy power [3]. Core Viewpoints - The overall industry strategy indicates that a new supply-demand cycle is expected to begin, emphasizing the importance of leading companies and flexible directions. The report suggests a continued focus on leading new energy companies during this layout window, with supply-side innovations like "anti-involution" and solid-state batteries, and demand-side growth in areas like energy storage [4][8]. - The core viewpoint of the new energy vehicle supply chain indicates that a new cycle has begun in the mid and downstream sectors, with leading companies making breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology [4][5]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain - Leading companies such as EVE Energy, Peking University, and Xiamen Tungsten Industry are benefiting from advancements in solid-state batteries. EVE Energy's solid-state battery production base in Chengdu is set to achieve a manufacturing capacity of 60Ah by December 2025, with a target energy density of 400Wh/kg by 2025 [4][5]. Energy Storage Industry - Chinese energy storage companies are gaining a significant share of the global market, with a 106% year-on-year increase in global energy storage battery shipments, reaching 258GWh in the first half of 2025. Chinese companies dominate the top ten global energy storage cell shipments, holding a combined market share of 91.2% [5]. - The "anti-involution" strategy is yielding results, with companies like GCL-Poly, Aiko, and LONGi benefiting from government policies aimed at reducing low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector [5][8]. Photovoltaic Supply and Demand - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in photovoltaic supply and demand, with an expected increase in the operating rate of components in September by 2.45% [6][8]. AI and New Energy - The integration of AI and new energy sectors is highlighted, with companies like Zhenyu Technology and Keda Li benefiting from the upward trend in humanoid robots. Tesla's fourth "Master Plan" emphasizes that 80% of its future value will come from robots [8][23].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.735 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 35.30%, and a net loss of 1.776 billion yuan [2][7]. - The company's market share in granular silicon has significantly increased to 24.32% in the first half of 2025, up from 14.58% in 2024 [11]. - The average selling price of granular silicon decreased to 32,900 yuan per ton in Q2 2025 from 35,700 yuan per ton in Q1 2025, while cash costs improved to 25,300 yuan per ton from 27,100 yuan per ton [11]. - The company has successfully completed a threefold IEC stability test for its perovskite commercial components and established a GW-level perovskite industrial base in June [11]. - Financially, the company recognized a financial asset impairment loss of 264 million yuan in the first half of 2025, which is an increase compared to 196 million yuan in the same period last year [11]. - The company has effectively reduced administrative expenses by 8.5% year-on-year to 625 million yuan, reflecting strong cost control [11]. - The quality of the company's products is steadily improving, with the total metal impurity content of five elements maintained at approximately 95% for products meeting the ≤0.5 ppbw standard [11]. - The company anticipates a potential turnaround in performance due to the recovery of polysilicon prices and ongoing optimization of cash costs and expense control [11].

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly is a leading global producer of granular silicon with significant cost advantages, recently recognized for its green and low-carbon innovations. The company faced short-term performance pressure due to supply-demand mismatches in the industry, resulting in a revenue decline of 35.3% year-on-year to 5.73 billion yuan and a net loss of 1.78 billion yuan, an increase of 20.0% year-on-year [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - In H1 2025, GCL-Poly's cash cost for granular silicon was 26.22 yuan/kg, maintaining industry leadership, with a Q2 cost of 25.31 yuan/kg, a decrease of 6.5% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company achieved a market share of 24.3% in H1 2025, an increase of 7.2 percentage points from H2 2024, with the top five customers accounting for 71% of shipments [1]. - The average transaction price for N-type granular silicon increased significantly to 48.0 yuan/kg, up 43.3% since early July 2025, indicating a potential return to profitability in August-September [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - GCL-Poly's GW-level perovskite production line commenced operations in June 2025, marking a significant step towards commercial-scale production, with a C-round financing of nearly 200 million yuan completed in July [2]. - The company achieved a single-junction module efficiency of 19.04% and a tandem module efficiency of 26.36%, with plans to complete the first product by November 2025 and projected shipments of 100 MW, GW, and 3-5 GW in the following years [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The Chinese government is actively promoting the "anti-involution" initiative in the photovoltaic sector, with multiple ministries holding meetings to drive this agenda, which is expected to boost downstream demand and support price transmission in the photovoltaic industry chain [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a plan to address low-price competition in the photovoltaic sector, which is anticipated to facilitate orderly adjustments in industry scale and promote supply-side reforms [2]. Group 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to a decline in demand following Q2's rush for installations, GCL-Poly has adjusted its sales assumptions for silicon materials and wafers, projecting net profits of -2.30 billion, 1.28 billion, and 2.14 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3]. - The company is expected to return to normal profitability by 2026, with a target price of 2.22 HKD based on a 45x PE ratio for 2026, reflecting the anticipated recovery in industry pricing driven by the "anti-involution" measures [3].

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector has shown clear signs of a cyclical reversal, with significant stock price increases across the board, indicating a potential recovery in the industry [2][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On September 5, the photovoltaic equipment sector surged by 8.15%, with all 74 constituent stocks closing in the green, and eight stocks rising over 10% [2]. - Notable stock performances included JinkoSolar (19.99%), Changsheng Electric (18.24%), and Sungrow Power (16.67%) [2]. - From April to September, several photovoltaic stocks have doubled in value, with Sungrow Power increasing from 51.90 CNY to 137.66 CNY, a rise of 165%, and JinkoSolar from 43.24 CNY to 89.24 CNY, a rise of 106% [2]. Group 2: Market Capitalization - Tongwei Co., Ltd. has reached a total market capitalization of 109.8 billion CNY, making it the third photovoltaic stock in A-shares to surpass the 100 billion CNY mark [3]. - The top 12 photovoltaic companies by market capitalization include Sungrow Power (280.59 billion CNY), Jiangxi Green Energy (137.16 billion CNY), and Tongwei Co., Ltd. (109.80 billion CNY) [4]. Group 3: Silicon Material Sector - The leading silicon material companies have also seen significant stock price increases, with Tongwei Co., New Special Energy, GCL-Poly Energy, and Daqo New Energy all experiencing gains between 6.18% and 17.28% [6]. - The price of silicon materials has risen for ten consecutive weeks, with n-type polysilicon prices increasing by 42% and 43% respectively [8][9]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized the importance of addressing overcapacity in the photovoltaic sector, indicating that "anti-involution" has become a national strategic focus [10]. - Major silicon material companies are planning to consolidate smaller producers by September 22, which is expected to stabilize the market [10][11]. - The anticipated recovery in silicon material prices is expected to positively impact the entire photovoltaic supply chain, leading to a healthier industry environment [11].