招商银行(600036) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 30 日 核心营收改善 ——招商银行 2025 年一季报点评 投资要点 招商银行核心营收改善，息差降幅收窄，不良生成稳定。 数据概览 25Q1 营收同比负增 3.1%，增速较 24A 放缓 2.6pc；25Q1 归母净利润同比负增 2.1%，增速较 24A 放缓 3.3pc。25Q1 末不良率环比下降 2bp 至 0.94%；25Q1 末拨 备覆盖率环比下降 2pc 至 410%。 核心营收改善 招行 25Q1 利润表现略低于市场预期，25Q1 招商银行营收同比负增 3.1%，增速 较 24A 放缓 2.6pc；归母净利润同比负增 2.1%，增速较 24A 放缓 3.3pc。招行业 绩放缓主要受其他非息收入波动影响。 扣除其他非息影响，招商银行核心营收环比改善：①利息净收入表现好于预期， 25Q1 利息净收入增速转正（同比增长 2%）。招行利息净收入增速改善，主要得 益于息差同比降幅收窄，25Q1 息差同比降幅为 11bp，降幅较 24A 收窄 6bp。② 中收降幅收窄，其中财富管理中收恢复正增，25Q1 财富管理手续费收入同比增 长 10%，主要得 ...

招商银行：自5月8日起 黄金账户活期及黄金账户定投按金额认购的起点由800元调整为1000元 金十数据4月30日讯，招商银行晚间发布关于调整黄金账户认购起点金额及风险提示的通告，自北京时 间2025年5月8日9：10起，黄金账户活期及黄金账户定投按金额认购的起点由800元调整为1000元。调整 前已设置成功的定投计划（含普通定投与智能定投）将继续执行，不受影响。调整后新发起的定投计划 金额须满足我行最新起点要求。 ...

A 股简称：招商银行 A 股代码：600036 公告编号：2025-021 经国家金融监督管理总局批准，招商银行股份有限公司（简称本公 司）近日在全国银行间债券市场发行了"2025年招商银行股份有限公司 无固定期限资本债券（第一期）（债券通）"（简称本期债券）。 本期债券于2025年4月25日簿记建档，并于2025年4月29日完成发行。 本期债券发行规模为人民币200亿元，前5年票面利率为2.13%，每5年调 整一次，在第5年及之后的每个付息日附发行人有条件赎回权。 本期债券募集的资金将依据适用法律和监管部门的批准，补充本公 司的其他一级资本。 特此公告。 招商银行股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 4 月 30 日 招商银行股份有限公司 关于无固定期限资本债券发行完毕的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Merchants Bank (招商银行) with a target price of 52.9 CNY [2][9]. Core Views - The bank's customer base is solid, and the decline in net interest margin has narrowed quarter-on-quarter. The first quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 83.751 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 3.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.286 billion CNY, down 2.08% year-on-year [2][9]. - The bank's non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.94%, with a provision coverage ratio of 410.03% [2][9]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in net interest income, which turned positive after five consecutive quarters of decline, driven by asset growth [8][9]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit**: In Q1 2025, the bank's revenue was 83.751 billion CNY, down 3.09% year-on-year, while net profit was 37.286 billion CNY, down 2.08% year-on-year [2][9]. - **Net Interest Income**: The net interest income increased by 1.92% year-on-year, supported by a growth in average daily interest-earning assets by 8.7% year-on-year [8][9]. - **Non-Interest Income**: Non-interest income decreased by 10.64% year-on-year, with wealth management fees showing a positive growth of 10.45% [8][9]. Asset and Liability Management - **Asset Growth**: Total assets grew by 3.11% to 12.53 trillion CNY, with loans and advances increasing by 3.44% to 7.13 trillion CNY [8][9]. - **Liability Management**: Total liabilities increased by 3.27%, with customer deposits growing by 2.45% to 9.32 trillion CNY [8][9]. - **Deposit Structure**: The proportion of demand deposits is 51.80%, slightly down from the end of the previous year, indicating a trend towards term deposits [8][9]. Risk and Quality Indicators - **Asset Quality**: The non-performing loan ratio is stable at 0.94%, with a slight increase in non-performing loans by 11.33 billion CNY year-to-date [8][9]. - **Forward-Looking Indicators**: The report notes an increase in the attention loan ratio to 1.36% and overdue loan ratio to 1.38% [8][9]. Long-term Outlook - The report anticipates that despite some challenges in non-interest income, revenue growth will remain resilient, with a long-term positive outlook for the bank's fundamentals and strategic execution [9]. - The projected net profit growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 0.7%, 3.7%, and 4.9% respectively [9].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed signs of recovery with the Hang Seng Index closing at 22,119.41 points, up 0.51% or 111.3 points, with a total turnover of HKD 201.55 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 1.35%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.1% [1] - For the month, the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.33%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 5.17%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 5.7% [1] Blue Chip Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) saw a significant increase of 5.27%, closing at HKD 49.95, contributing 72.58 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue chip performances included Chow Tai Fook (01929) up 8.46%, AIA Group (01299) up 6.51%, while China Merchants Bank (03968) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (01398) experienced declines of 4.61% and 2.92% respectively [2] Sector Highlights AI Sector - The AI sector showed strong performance, with Kingsoft Cloud (03896) rising by 14.2% and other AI-related stocks like Meitu (01357) and Fourth Paradigm (06682) also seeing significant gains [3][4] - Recent advancements in AI models, such as Alibaba's Qwen3 and Xiaomi's MiMo, indicate a competitive edge in the domestic AI landscape [4] Robotics Sector - Robotics stocks also performed well, with MicroPort Robotics (02252) increasing by 11.01% and other companies like SUTENG (02498) and UBTECH (09880) also showing gains [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the role of humanoid robots in driving innovation in the AI industry [5] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector saw a collective rise, with companies like New China Life (01336) and China Pacific Insurance (02328) reporting increases in stock prices [5] - The five major listed insurance companies reported a total net profit of CNY 84.176 billion for Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.4% [6] Banking Sector - The banking sector faced challenges, with major banks reporting mixed results for Q1 2025, where only Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China showed profit growth [7] - The total operating income for the six major banks reached CNY 910.184 billion, with a combined net profit of CNY 344.42 billion [7] Notable Stock Movements - Disen Creation (00113) surged by 43.1% following a privatization proposal at a premium price [8] - AIA Group (01299) reported a 13% increase in new business value for Q1 2025, indicating strong growth in the insurance sector [9] - SUTENG (02498) continued its upward trend, supported by new automotive standards promoting intelligent connected vehicles [10] - BeiGene (06160) saw a rise of 6.04% after a favorable patent ruling [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The company reported a slight decline in performance with a revenue of 83.75 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 37.29 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year. The annualized ROAA and ROAE were 1.21% and 14.13%, respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [1][2] - Net interest income showed positive growth at 1.9% year-on-year, while other non-interest income decreased significantly, impacting overall revenue [1] - The net interest margin was reported at 1.91%, with a year-on-year decline of 11 basis points. The total assets reached 12.53 trillion yuan, with loans and deposits growing by 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively [2] - The wealth management segment showed strong growth, with retail AUM reaching 15.57 trillion yuan, up 4.3% year-to-date, and wealth management fee income increasing by 10.5% year-on-year [3] - Asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% and a provision coverage ratio of 410% [3][4] Financial Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 150.8 billion yuan, 158.1 billion yuan, and 169.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating growth rates of 1.6%, 4.9%, and 7.0% [4][5] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 5.76 yuan, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.92x [5][11] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 11.03 trillion yuan in 2023 to 15.52 trillion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [11]

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in both Hong Kong and A-shares has experienced a collective decline after reaching continuous highs, with significant drops in major banks' stock prices and disappointing first-quarter earnings reports for 2025 [1][4][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The A-share banking sector index fell by 1.69%, with notable declines including Huaxia Bank down over 8%, and other banks like Beijing Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Agricultural Bank of China dropping more than 3% [1][2]. - In the Hong Kong market, Shengjing Bank fell over 5%, while China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and Postal Savings Bank of China dropped more than 4% [1][3]. Group 2: Earnings Reports - Multiple banks reported disappointing earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with Huaxia Bank's net profit at 5.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.04% [6][8]. - Other banks such as Guizhou Bank, Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and China Bank also reported declines in net profit, with decreases ranging from 2.90% to 14.04% [6][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts noted that the reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in 2024 suggests that banks may face pressure on asset yields in 2025, with expectations of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [9]. - Despite some banks showing profit growth, the overall performance did not meet market expectations, leading to diminished investor confidence [8]. - Passive funds have increased their holdings in bank stocks, while active funds have reduced their exposure, indicating a shift in investment strategy [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Merchants Bank [1] Core Views - The report highlights that non-interest income pressure has negatively impacted revenue, while interest income continues to show positive growth. The bank's provisioning advantage remains solid, helping to mitigate profit declines [6][8] - In Q1 2025, China Merchants Bank reported revenue of 83.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.3 billion yuan, down 2.1% year-on-year [4][6] - The report emphasizes the bank's ability to manage credit risk effectively, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.94% and a provisioning coverage ratio of 410% [4][9] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 338.02 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 0.16% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 149.69 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 0.88% [5] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in performance, with net profit growth rates of 0.9%, 3%, and 5.4% for 2025-2027 [9] Revenue Composition - Non-interest income decreased by 10.6% in Q1 2025, significantly impacting overall revenue growth [6][8] - Interest income showed a positive growth of 1.9% in Q1 2025, contributing positively to revenue despite the decline in non-interest income [6][8] Loan Growth and Credit Quality - Total loans increased by 5.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with corporate loans remaining stable while retail loan growth slowed [6][10] - The report notes a shift in retail lending focus towards lower-risk products, with a significant reduction in credit card lending [6][10] Cost of Deposits and Interest Margin - The bank's net interest margin was reported at 1.91% in Q1 2025, with a slight quarter-on-quarter decline of 3 basis points [9][11] - Deposit costs decreased significantly, supporting the bank's interest margin stability [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant adjustments made by fund manager Guo Fei of China Jianyin Investment in his fund portfolios during the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a shift towards value-style investments and increased holdings in banking and consumer-related stocks [2][3][6]. Fund Performance and Adjustments - Guo Fei's funds have seen a notable shift in their investment strategy, moving away from previously held growth stocks like Dongfang Yuhong and Guizhou Moutai, and instead focusing on banks and industrial stocks [3][6]. - The fund "Jianyin Growth 30" has outperformed its benchmark over the past year, indicating a successful strategy shift that has led to positive returns for investors [3][4]. Asset Allocation Changes - As of the end of Q1 2025, Guo Fei's managed funds totaled 70.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24 billion yuan from the previous quarter [4]. - The equity asset allocation in "Jianyin Growth 30" increased to 80.59%, up over 11% from the previous quarter, reflecting a significant increase in stock holdings [5]. Stock Selection and Concentration - Guo Fei's recent adjustments include adding four new stocks to his portfolio, specifically two bank stocks and two industrial stocks, while reducing positions in previously held stocks like Agricultural Bank of China [6][8]. - The concentration of holdings in "Jianyin Growth 30" reached a three-year high of 70.66%, indicating a more focused investment strategy [7]. Investment Philosophy and Market Outlook - Guo Fei emphasizes a belief in the cyclical nature of the market, stating that while the timing of economic recovery is uncertain, he remains confident in the eventual return of cycles and shareholder returns [16][17]. - For Q2 2025, Guo Fei plans to maintain a focus on stable assets with sustainable returns while temporarily avoiding overseas companies due to concerns about the inventory cycle [16][17].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong banking stocks have continued to decline, with China Merchants Bank and Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) dropping over 5% [1] - Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank fell more than 4% [1] - Bank of Communications and Agricultural Bank of China decreased by over 3% [1]