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Vi e w p o i n t | 26 Mar 2026 19:18:47 ET │ 9 pages China Banks Our take on potential relaxation of China banks shareholding restriction CITI'S TAKE According to Reuters (Source, 26-Mar-2026), regulators are considering relaxing shareholding restrictions to allow some bank shareholders to become major investors in one to two additional banks (vs. can only either has controlling stake in one bank or hold >5% in no more than two banks currently), in order to broaden capital-raising options for China banks. S ...

Core Insights - China Bank is actively integrating its financial services into the national strategy, focusing on high-quality development that addresses multiple missions such as supporting the real economy, promoting technological self-reliance, facilitating green transformation, enhancing public welfare, and ensuring safety [2][18] Group 1: Technology Finance - China Bank aims to be a "full-cycle companion" for technology enterprises, providing support from early-stage financing to later-stage growth, exemplified by its involvement with the domestic GPU company, Moore Threads, which saw a stock price increase of 468.78% on its debut [3] - The bank has established a "five-in-one" strategic action framework to enhance its technology finance services, focusing on national strategic priorities and creating a seamless service system [4] - China Bank has launched the "Zhongyin Ketech Full-Cycle Customer Cultivation Plan," allocating 60 billion yuan for hard technology projects, aiming to provide integrated financial services throughout the enterprise growth cycle [4] Group 2: Green Finance - China Bank has deeply integrated green development concepts into its operations, with a commitment to supporting low-carbon transitions in key industries [5][6] - The bank has underwritten over 1.4 trillion yuan in domestic green bonds and over 130 billion USD in international green bonds during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6] - China Bank has implemented innovative financing models, such as supporting a waste recycling project in Wuxi with a loan of 120 million yuan, demonstrating its commitment to turning waste into resources [6] Group 3: Inclusive Finance - Inclusive finance is a priority for China Bank, focusing on bridging the gap for underserved populations, particularly in rural areas [9] - The bank introduced the "Kunyux Red Date Planting Loan" to facilitate financing for local farmers, resulting in 880,000 yuan in loans for 13 farmers within three months [10] - The bank has developed a digital system, "Chain Jietong," to streamline loan applications, significantly reducing processing time and enhancing accessibility for clients [11][12] Group 4: Pension Finance - China Bank has established a comprehensive personal pension service system, serving over 10 million clients and offering more than 270 investment products [13] - The bank is transitioning from a product-oriented approach to a demand-oriented strategy, focusing on holistic financial planning for retirement [15] - The launch of the "Zhongyin Silver Age" pension finance brand aims to provide a range of services that enhance the quality of life for elderly clients [15] Group 5: Digital Finance - China Bank is advancing its digital finance capabilities, moving from basic online services to a more intelligent and integrated digital infrastructure [16] - The bank has built a data lake with over 29 petabytes of storage and developed various technology platforms to support its digital transformation [16] - Digital finance initiatives have improved service efficiency and enhanced security measures, ensuring compliance and risk management in financial technology [17]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the impact of oil price shocks on liquidity, suggesting that the ability to transmit cost shocks downstream will be stronger than previous oil price impacts, with expectations of nominal price increases in Q2 2026 [19][20][21] - It highlights that while medium-term demand remains optimistic, caution is advised regarding the contraction of broad liquidity in Q2 2026, particularly due to cross-border liquidity constraints and rising long-term interest rates affecting investment returns [19][21] Section Summaries 1. Current Observation - The banking sector overall declined by 0.8% during the observation period from March 23 to March 27, 2026, underperforming the Wind All A index, which fell by 0.7% [17] - State-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks experienced declines of -1.29%, -0.42%, -0.85%, and -0.47% respectively [17] - In contrast, H-shares of banks outperformed, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.2% while H-share banks gained 0.5% [17] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the market's concerns regarding the demand side of the Chinese economy and cost transmission are overly pessimistic, given the supportive fiscal policies and stabilization in the real estate cycle [19] - It recommends caution regarding the contraction of liquidity in Q2 2026, emphasizing the importance of cross-border liquidity as a key variable for supporting Chinese asset liquidity [19][20] 3. Sector Performance - The banking sector's average price for convertible bonds fell by 0.67%, underperforming the convertible bond index by 1.95 percentage points [18] - The report notes that the profitability growth expectations for 2025 remain largely unchanged for seven banks, indicating stability in earnings forecasts [18] 4. Individual Stock Performance - Among A-share banks, Ping An Bank and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank saw increases of 2.32% and 1.25% respectively, while Chongqing Bank experienced a decline of 6.55% [17] - In H-shares, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Bank of China rose by 4.68% and 3.40%, while Bohai Bank and Jiangxi Bank fell by 3.45% and 1.49% respectively [17] 5. Valuation and Financial Analysis - As of March 27, 2026, the banking sector's latest price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 6.84X, and the price-to-book ratio is 0.67X, indicating that valuations are at historical average levels [45] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key banks, including expected earnings per share and return on equity for 2026 and 2027, supporting the investment recommendations [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The report indicates that large banks have limited net buying activity, with a monthly cumulative net purchase of 46.8 billion yuan as of March 26, which is a decrease of approximately 200 billion yuan month-on-month but an increase of about 50 billion yuan year-on-year. It is expected that credit issuance may slightly decline compared to March 2025, but the initial performance remains strong [7][20] - The central bank's operations included a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan through various monetary policy tools, with a focus on maintaining liquidity stability as the quarter-end approaches [16] - The report highlights that the liquidity environment is expected to tighten in April due to tax payments and annual settlement pressures, with potential increases in funding rates towards the end of the month [16][17] Summary by Sections Section 1: March Credit Performance - The data shows that the funding environment remains stable as the quarter-end approaches, with large banks gradually reducing their lending from 4.37 trillion yuan to 3.78 trillion yuan [16] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming PMI data and bank annual reports for insights into future liquidity trends [23] Section 2: Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted 4.742 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos, with a net injection of 281.9 billion yuan after accounting for maturing operations [16] - Market rates for various instruments, including treasury bonds and NCDs, have shown slight fluctuations, with the 1-year treasury yield at 1.25% and the average NCD issuance rate at 1.52% [17][18] Section 3: Bank Financing Tracking - The total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit (NCDs) is 18.19 trillion yuan, with a weighted average issuance rate of 1.65% [21] - The report notes that there were no new issuances of commercial bank bonds during the period, and the total outstanding amount of commercial bank bonds is 3.32 trillion yuan [22]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Views - The banking sector's performance is relatively stable compared to the market, with the banking index down by 0.71% this week, ranking 13th among 31 primary industries [1] - State-owned banks experienced a larger decline, with respective drops of -1.17% for state-owned banks, -0.30% for joint-stock banks, -0.88% for city commercial banks, and -0.57% for rural commercial banks [1] - The financial reports of 22 listed banks show a recovery in profitability, with average revenue and net profit growth of 2.1% and 4.9%, respectively, indicating a positive trend in earnings [3] - The average non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for these banks is 1.05%, down by 2 basis points, reflecting stable asset quality [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The banking sector's index decreased by 0.71%, while the overall market index fell by 0.73%, indicating a slight underperformance [1] - The top three gainers in the banking sector were CITIC Bank (+4.39%), Ping An Bank (+2.32%), and Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank (+1.25%), while the largest decliners included Chongqing Bank (-6.55%), Xiamen Bank (-4.26%), and Agricultural Bank (-4.14%) [1][10] Financial Reports - The financial reports indicate a clear recovery trend, with 22 listed banks showing an average revenue growth of 2.1% and net profit growth of 4.9% [3] - The average net interest margin for the banks is 1.50%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point, while some banks like Bank of Communications and China Construction Bank reported an increase in their margins [3] - The asset scale of these banks grew by 10.1% year-on-year, with a slight acceleration in growth rates [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks and certain high-dividend small and medium-sized banks, recommending major banks like Bank of Communications, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and China Construction Bank [7] - The report highlights the potential for a recovery in earnings growth for the banking sector in 2026, with an expected core revenue growth of 5% [6][7] - The average dividend yield for the banking sector is projected at 4.4%, making it an attractive investment option [6][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the establishment and initial project signings of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Venture Capital Guidance Fund, which aims to support early-stage and startup enterprises through a structured investment approach [1][4][5] Group 2 - On March 25, during the 2026 Investment Beijing Conference, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Fund completed its first batch of key project signings, including four sub-funds with total initial scales of 6.52 billion, 10 billion, 15 billion, and 10 billion yuan respectively [1] - The total scale of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Fund is reported to be 500 billion yuan, with over 80% of its funds allocated for sub-fund investments and no more than 20% for direct investments [4][5] - The fund's investment strategy focuses on early and small investments in "hard technology," targeting strategic emerging industries and future industries as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (20260323 - 20260327), there were no new issuances of secondary capital bonds in the inter - bank and exchange markets [1]. - The weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds this week was approximately 177.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5 billion yuan compared to last week. The top three most - traded bonds were 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 02BC, 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC), and 25 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 03BC [2]. - In terms of the regions of issuers, the top three regions in terms of trading volume were Guangdong Province, Guizhou Province, and Heilongjiang Province, with trading volumes of approximately 131.6 billion yuan, 13 billion yuan, and 8.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. - As of March 27, the changes in the yields to maturity of 5Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA compared to last week were - 3.21BP, - 3.87BP, and - 3.87BP respectively; for 7Y secondary capital bonds, the changes were - 6.06BP for all three ratings; for 10Y secondary capital bonds, the changes for ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA were - 4.25BP, - 4.24BP, and - 4.24BP respectively [2]. - This week, the overall deviation of the weekly average trading price valuation of secondary capital bonds was not large. The proportion of discount transactions was greater than that of premium transactions, and the discount amplitude was larger than the premium amplitude [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Primary Market Issuance - This week (20260323 - 20260327), there were no new issuances of secondary capital bonds in the inter - bank and exchange markets [1]. 3.2 Secondary Market Trading - **Trading Volume**: The weekly trading volume of secondary capital bonds this week was approximately 177.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.5 billion yuan compared to last week. The top three most - traded bonds were 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 02BC (13.259 billion yuan), 25 Bank of China Secondary Capital Bond 03A(BC) (10.928 billion yuan), and 25 China Construction Bank Secondary Capital Bond 03BC (7.651 billion yuan) [2]. - **Regional Trading Volume**: In terms of the regions of issuers, the top three regions in terms of trading volume were Guangdong Province, Guizhou Province, and Heilongjiang Province, with trading volumes of approximately 131.6 billion yuan, 13 billion yuan, and 8.1 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Yield to Maturity**: As of March 27, the changes in the yields to maturity of 5Y secondary capital bonds with ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA compared to last week were - 3.21BP, - 3.87BP, and - 3.87BP respectively; for 7Y secondary capital bonds, the changes were - 6.06BP for all three ratings; for 10Y secondary capital bonds, the changes for ratings of AAA -, AA +, and AA were - 4.25BP, - 4.24BP, and - 4.24BP respectively [2]. 3.3 Valuation Deviation of the Top 30 Individual Bonds - **Discount Bonds**: The top two bonds with the highest discount rates were 24 Mintai Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.6931%) and 25 Mintai Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (- 0.6400%), and the discount rates of the rest were within - 0.50%. The ChinaBond implicit ratings were mainly AAA -, AA +, and AA -, and the bonds were mainly distributed in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong [3]. - **Premium Bonds**: The top three bonds with the highest premium rates were 23 Mintai Commercial Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.2287%), 22 Xiamen Rural Commercial Secondary 01 (0.0991%), and 22 Ningbo Bank Secondary Capital Bond 01 (0.0701%), and the premium rates of the rest were within 0.07%. The ChinaBond implicit ratings were mainly AAA -, AA +, and AA, and the bonds were mainly distributed in Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of China is positioning itself as a leading bank in supporting the development of the artificial intelligence (AI) industry chain through technological finance initiatives and innovative services [1] Group 1: Event Overview - On March 27, the Bank of China held a promotional event for AI industry chain ecological cooperation in Beijing, attended by over 100 guests from government departments and enterprises [1] Group 2: Financial Support and Achievements - Since launching the "Action Plan to Support the Development of the AI Industry Chain" last year, the Bank of China has supported over 4,600 AI enterprises [1] - The total credit balance for these enterprises exceeds 550 billion yuan, with comprehensive financial support amounting to over 120 billion yuan [1] Group 3: Future Commitment - The Bank of China will continue to implement practical measures and provide superior services to promote the empowerment of AI across various industries and benefit numerous households [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Bank's Weihai Branch has successfully provided a 100 million yuan project loan to a local key seawater aquaculture enterprise, aiming to support the development of the marine economy and assist Rongcheng in establishing a national-level marine ranch demonstration area [1][2] Group 1: Loan Details - The loan amount is 100 million yuan, aimed at enhancing the marine economy and supporting the establishment of a national marine ranch demonstration area in Rongcheng [1][2] - The enterprise receiving the loan has extensive experience in seawater aquaculture, utilizing a shallow sea multi-nutrient ecological farming model, integrating seed breeding, ecological farming, and deep processing [2] Group 2: Industry Impact - Rongcheng, located at the easternmost tip of the Shandong Peninsula, has become a significant base for cultivating marine delicacies such as kelp, sea cucumbers, and abalones, with marine fisheries and ecological farming as pillar industries [2] - The project is expected to effectively boost local employment and promote collaborative development within the industry chain [2] Group 3: Financial Support Strategy - China Bank's Weihai Branch has formed a specialized service team to address the financing needs of the enterprise, customizing credit solutions and streamlining approval processes to ensure efficient project implementation [2] - The bank is committed to enhancing financial support in marine-related sectors and plans to innovate products and services such as marine usage rights mortgages and industry chain finance [2]