Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adjusted the profit forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) down by 2% for 2025 due to the extended export ban in Congo, while increasing the profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 5% and 8% respectively [1] Group 1: Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum in 2025 has been reduced by 2% [1] - Profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 5% and 8% respectively [1] Group 2: Target Price Changes - The A-share target price has been raised from 10 RMB to 14 RMB [1] - The H-share target price has been increased from 8.2 HKD to 13.5 HKD [1] Group 3: Market Performance and Influencing Factors - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price rose on the previous day, driven by strong performance in the first half of the year and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts in the US [1] - The company is experiencing strong growth in copper and cobalt production, approaching the upper limit of its annual guidance [1] - The export ban in Congo may negatively impact the gross profit of the cobalt business in the third quarter, but investors are likely to overlook this factor as copper prices are seen as the key driver for the stock price [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adjusted the profit forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH, 03993) for 2025 down by 2% due to the extended export ban in Congo, while increasing the profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 5% and 8% respectively [1] Group 1: Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 2% to reflect the impact of the extended export ban in Congo [1] - Profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 5% and 8% respectively [1] Group 2: Target Price Changes - The A-share target price has been raised from 10 RMB to 14 RMB [1] - The H-share target price has been increased from 8.2 HKD to 13.5 HKD [1] Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Factors - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price rose on the previous day, driven by strong performance in the first half of the year and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts in the US [1] - The company is experiencing strong growth in copper and cobalt production, which is gradually reaching the upper limit of annual guidance [1] - The export ban in Congo may negatively impact the gross profit of the cobalt business in the third quarter, but investors are likely to overlook this factor as copper prices are seen as the key driver for stock performance [1]

两融数据显示，该股最新（8月25日）两融余额为19.50亿元，其中，融资余额为19.29亿元，近10日增加 1565.81万元，环比增长0.82%。 洛阳钼业股价再创历史新高，该股近期呈不断突破新高之势，近一个月累计有12个交易日股价刷新历史 纪录。截至09:56，该股目前上涨0.08%，股价报12.09元，成交7063.08万股，成交金额8.44亿元，换手 率0.40%，该股最新A股总市值达2111.02亿元，该股A股流通市值2111.02亿元。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，洛阳钼业所属的有色金属行业，目前整体跌幅为0.37%，行业内，目前股价 上涨的有55只，涨幅居前的有中色股份、华钰矿业、云铝股份等，涨幅分别为5.50%、5.40%、4.43%。 股价下跌的有82只，跌幅居前的有翔鹭钨业、章源钨业、天工股份等，跌幅分别为8.00%、7.32%、 5.23%。 公司发布的半年报数据显示，上半年公司共实现营业收入947.73亿元，同比下降7.83%，实现净利润 86.71亿元，同比增长60.07%，基本每股收益为0.4100元，加权平均净资产收益率11.70%。（数据宝） （文章来源：证券时报网） 机构评级来 ...

该行将洛阳钼业2025年盈利预测下调2%，以反映刚果出口禁令延长的影响，同时将2026及27年盈利预 测分别上调5%及8%；A股目标价由10元上调至14元，H股目标价由8.2港元上调至13.5港元，维持"增 持"评级。 摩根大通发表研报指，洛阳钼业A股股价昨日上升，主要受上半年稳健业绩及美国降息预期升温推动。 该行认为铜及钴产量强劲增长，正逐步达至全年指引上限。刚果的出口禁令或对第三季钴业务毛利构成 负面影响，但投资者倾向忽略有关因素，因铜价才是推动股价更关键的因素。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Minsheng Securities has given a recommendation rating to Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) based on strong financial performance projections for 2025 [1] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by 60.07% year-on-year, reaching a historical high [1] - In the second quarter of 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is anticipated to increase by 41% year-on-year and by 20% quarter-on-quarter [1]

Group 1 - Recent price increases in various chemical and industrial products have raised market concerns about the drivers behind this surge, its sustainability, and the potential for performance recovery among upstream and downstream companies in the industry [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as indicated by Chairman Powell, has positively impacted the international commodity market, suggesting a potential revaluation of commodities [1][3] - On August 25, copper futures in the Shanghai market closed at 79,690 yuan per ton, nearing the 80,000 yuan mark, while precious metals also saw price increases [1] Group 2 - The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen significantly, with traders betting on an 87.2% chance of a cut in September and two additional cuts by the end of the year [3] - The "dovish" stance of the Federal Reserve is expected to weaken the dollar, leading to an increase in prices for dollar-denominated commodities [3] - The recent rebound in prices of cyclical assets, including commodities, is attributed to supportive policies aimed at addressing issues like weak terminal consumption and structural oversupply in the commodity industry [5] Group 3 - The current commodity market is undergoing a reconfiguration of global supply and demand dynamics, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply chain restructuring, which may lead to a revaluation of raw materials [6] - Copper is identified as a key industrial metal, with its price expected to remain strong due to tight supply and increasing demand from emerging sectors such as AI infrastructure and electric transportation [6] - For September, copper prices are projected to fluctuate between 78,000 yuan and 83,000 yuan per ton, indicating a resilient price trend [6]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's performance in the first half of 2025 reached new heights, with a significant increase in net profit driven by rising prices and production of key products like copper and cobalt [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 94.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.83%, while net profit reached 8.671 billion yuan, marking a 60.07% increase compared to the previous year, setting a record for the same period [1][2]. - Operating costs decreased by 10.96% year-on-year, contributing to improved profitability [4]. Production and Sales - Copper production increased by 12.68% year-on-year, totaling 353,600 tons, with copper mining revenue reaching 25.718 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 65% of the mining segment's total revenue [2][3]. - The mining segment's revenue hit a historical high of 39.402 billion yuan, up 25.64% year-on-year, representing about 42% of total revenue [2]. Product Diversification - In addition to copper, the company saw positive trends in cobalt, tungsten, and molybdenum production, with cobalt production at 61,100 tons and revenue of 5.728 billion yuan, a 31.94% increase [3]. - The company is expanding its resource portfolio by acquiring the Cangrejos Project in Ecuador for approximately 5.81 million Canadian dollars (about 307.6 million yuan), which is expected to produce around 11.5 tons of gold annually starting in 2028 [6]. Asset Growth - The total asset scale of the company increased to 178.6 billion yuan by the end of the first half of 2025, reflecting a steady growth trend [1][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) is rated as a "buy" by Open Source Securities due to strong projected growth and stable production plans [1] - The forecast for H1 2025 indicates a year-on-year increase of 60.07% in net profit attributable to shareholders, setting a new historical high for the same period [1] - The company's annual production plan is progressing steadily, with major product output meeting the targets set for the first half of the year [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum is expanding its footprint in gold resources, positioning itself for significant growth opportunities [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a record high net profit attributable to shareholders in H1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 60.07% [4] - The company is expected to benefit from stable production releases from TFM and KFM, alongside a long-term upward trend in copper prices, leading to an upward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] - The acquisition of Lumina Gold is anticipated to enhance the company's resource diversity and position gold as a potential second growth driver [6] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 94.773 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.83% year-on-year, while operating costs fell by 10.96% to 74.727 billion yuan [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached approximately 8.671 billion yuan, marking a historical high for the same period [4] - Operating cash flow remained robust, increasing by 11.40% year-on-year to 12.009 billion yuan [4] Production and Operations - The company exceeded its production targets for various products in H1 2025, with copper production reaching 353,600 tons (up 12.68% year-on-year) and cobalt production at 61,100 tons (up 13.05% year-on-year) [5] - The TFM and KFM mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo performed particularly well, contributing to the overall production success [5] Future Outlook - The company has completed the acquisition of Lumina Gold, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador, which is expected to significantly enhance its gold resource base [6] - The Cangrejos mine has an estimated gold resource of 638 tons, with a projected mine life of 26 years, indicating strong future growth potential [6] Financial Projections - The revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 16.63 billion yuan, 19.52 billion yuan, and 21.53 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 0.91, and 1.01 yuan per share [4] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 15.5, 13.2, and 12.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

Summary of Luoyang Molybdenum Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Luoyang Molybdenum Co. - **Industry**: Mining and Metals Key Financial Performance - **Revenue**: 947.73 billion CNY in H1 2025, a slight decrease year-on-year due to lower trading revenue, while mining revenue increased by 25.64% [2][3] - **EBITDA**: 198 billion CNY, up 23.8% year-on-year [2][3] - **Net Profit**: 87 billion CNY, a 60% increase year-on-year [2][3] - **Operating Cash Flow**: 120 billion CNY, an 11.4% increase year-on-year [2][3] - **Debt Ratios**: Asset-liability ratio decreased to 50.15%, with a return on equity of 11.7%, up nearly 3 percentage points year-on-year [3][9] Mining Segment Performance - **Copper and Cobalt Contribution**: Copper and cobalt segments contributed 84% and 61.8% gross margin respectively, with copper production at 354,000 tons (up 12.7%) and cobalt production at 61,000 tons (up 13.1%) [4][5] - **Future Production Goals**: Targeting 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons of copper production by 2028 [4][14] - **Geographic Focus**: Strategic acquisitions planned in Africa and South America, focusing on copper and gold resources [4][10][11] Project Developments - **Ecuador Gold Project**: Completed acquisition for 581 million CAD, aiming for production by 2029 [2][6] - **Operational Improvements**: Ongoing site work and optimization for the Ecuador project [6] ESG and Social Responsibility - **ESG Ratings**: MSCI rating of AA for three consecutive years, gold level in Ecovadis sustainability rating [2][7] - **Community Initiatives**: Building educational institutions and providing agricultural support in the Democratic Republic of Congo [7][8] - **Carbon Neutrality Goals**: Commitment to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, with an investment of at least 1.5 billion USD for emission reductions [2][8] Strategic Outlook - **Acquisition Strategy**: Transitioning to a platform mining company with a focus on copper and gold, while also expanding into smaller metals like molybdenum and tungsten [10][17] - **Market Positioning**: Leveraging early acquisition of major mines to maintain a competitive edge in the copper market [22] - **Response to Geopolitical Challenges**: Monitoring changes in policies, especially in cobalt production in the DRC, to adapt strategies accordingly [12][23] Financial Management and Future Plans - **Capital Expenditure**: Expected capital expenditure of 30 to 40 billion CNY in H2 2025, with long-term plans for 4 billion CNY and 2 billion USD for expansion and optimization [24][25] - **Dividend Policy**: Committed to distributing 40% of net profit as dividends, balancing shareholder returns with reinvestment needs [25][26] Conclusion - **Future Focus**: Continued development of existing mining resources, effective resource acquisition in a competitive market, and management upgrades to transform into a platform-based enterprise [26]