证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 波司登（03998.HK） FY2025H1 业绩点评：主品牌高质量增长，期 待旺季销售 2024 年 12 月 02 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 16774 | 23214 | 26428 | 30076 | 34180 | | 同比 (%) | 3.46 | 38.39 | 13.85 | 13.80 | 13.65 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2139 | 3074 | 3607 | 4100 | 4661 | | 同比 (%) | 3.70 | 43.74 | 17.35 | 13.66 | 13.68 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 0.19 | 0.28 | 0.33 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a net profit growth of 23% in the first half of the fiscal year, with a revenue increase of 18%. The brand's down jacket business performed particularly well, reflecting strong market leadership [2][8]. - Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, the company continues to show robust growth, with historical highs in performance for the first half of the fiscal year [32]. - The company maintains a stable gross margin, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points to 49.9%, attributed to changes in sales structure and product mix [8][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year ending September 30, the company reported a revenue of 8.8 billion yuan, up 17.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.13 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year [2][8]. - The revenue breakdown includes brand down jackets (6.06 billion yuan, +22.7%), OEM processing (2.32 billion yuan, +13.4%), women's wear (310 million yuan, -21.5%), and diversified clothing (170 million yuan, +21.3%) [8][9]. Profitability Metrics - The operating profit margin improved by 0.2 percentage points to 16.7%, while the net profit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points to 12.8% [8][15]. - The company’s gross margin for brand down jackets was 61.1%, with slight declines in OEM processing and women's wear margins [15][27]. Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory increased by 53.4% year-on-year, with inventory turnover days rising by 29 days to 189 days, primarily due to rising down prices and proactive inventory management [23][26]. - The company maintains a strong cash flow position and plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.06 HKD per share [2][8]. Growth Drivers - New product categories, such as sun protection clothing and functional jackets, are contributing to revenue growth, with online sales for brand down jackets increasing by 24% [26][32]. - The company is optimizing its offline channel quality, closing 29 stores to focus on enhancing the performance of top stores, resulting in significant revenue growth per store [26][32]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 3.6 billion, 4.1 billion, and 4.6 billion yuan for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 17.1%, 13.5%, and 11.6% [33][32]. - The target price is maintained at 5.1 to 5.5 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 15-16x for FY2025, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in the undervalued, high-growth, and high-dividend yielding sector of down jackets [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved high-quality growth in the first half of the fiscal year 2024/25, with revenue and net profit increasing by 17.8% and 23.0% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The company continues to focus on its main brand and product categories, enhancing its market position and operational efficiency [4] - The company is expected to perform well in the winter sales season, leveraging its leading position in the down jacket market [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for the first half of fiscal year 2024/25 reached 8.8 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 17.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.13 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23.0% [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for the period was 0.1 RMB, with a proposed interim dividend of 0.06 HKD per share [1] - Gross margin for the first half of the fiscal year was 49.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Operating profit margin improved by 0.2 percentage points to 16.7%, while net profit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points to 12.8% [1] Business Segment Performance - The main business segments include brand down jackets, OEM processing, women's wear, and diversified clothing, with revenue contributions of 68.9%, 26.3%, 3.5%, and 1.3%, respectively [1] - Revenue growth rates for these segments were +22.7%, +13.4%, -21.5%, and +21.3% year-on-year [1] - The brand down jacket segment saw revenue growth driven by the main brand Bosideng, which accounted for 87.1% of the down jacket business [1] Market Strategy and Outlook - The company is enhancing its product innovation and expanding its market presence, particularly in the high-end segment through acquisitions and strategic investments [4] - The focus remains on strengthening brand leadership, category management, channel operations, and customer experience [4] - The company anticipates continued strong sales performance as it enters the winter season, supported by its diversified product offerings [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong performance relative to the market [8][9]. Core Insights - The company reported record high mid-term revenue and net profit for FY25, with revenue increasing by 17.8% to 8.8 billion RMB and net profit rising by 23.0% to 1.13 billion RMB, aligning with expectations [8][13]. - The down jacket business saw over 20% growth, with revenue increasing by 23% to 6.06 billion RMB, while the gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points due to a shift in sales mix [8]. - The self-operated channel led growth, with revenue from this segment increasing by 37% to 2.26 billion RMB, showcasing the company's genuine growth capabilities [8]. - Effective cost control contributed to a steady improvement in profitability, with the operating profit margin rising by 0.2 percentage points to 16.7% [8][15]. - The company has a solid asset quality with ample cash reserves, enhancing its risk resilience, as cash net value increased to 6.4 billion RMB from 5.5 billion RMB year-on-year [8]. Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company expects revenue of 16.77 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 38% [7]. - The projected net profit for FY25E is 2.14 billion RMB, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be 0.20 RMB for FY25E, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 19 [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [15]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated high-quality growth in its down jacket business, with a focus on enhancing channel quality and expanding product categories to meet changing consumer demands [3][4]. - The financial forecasts predict significant revenue and profit growth, with expected net profits of 3.62 billion, 4.20 billion, and 4.78 billion RMB for FY25, FY26, and FY27 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11.5, 9.9, and 8.7 [2][4]. Financial Data and Valuation - Main revenue for 2023A was 16.77 billion RMB, with a projected increase to 23.21 billion RMB in 2024A, reflecting a growth rate of 38% [2]. - The net profit for 2023A was 2.14 billion RMB, expected to rise to 3.07 billion RMB in 2024A, marking a growth rate of 44% [2]. - The company’s gross margin for FY25H1 was 49.9%, with a slight decrease attributed to rising raw material costs and changes in product mix [3][4]. Operational Analysis - The down jacket segment led revenue growth with a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, while the women's clothing segment saw a decline of 21.5% [3]. - The company has optimized its store count, reducing the number of stores while enhancing the quality of its retail channels, resulting in improved operational efficiency [3][4]. - Inventory levels increased by 53.4% year-on-year, attributed to proactive raw material procurement and a slowdown in distributor shipments [4]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts net profits of 3.62 billion RMB, 4.20 billion RMB, and 4.78 billion RMB for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, maintaining the previous profit estimates [4]. - The company is expected to continue innovating its product lines, including functional apparel, to adapt to evolving consumer preferences [4].

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港股通 证券研究报告 波司登 (3998 HK) 品牌羽绒服增长亮眼，盈利能力稳健 华泰研究 中报点评 2024 年 11 月 29 日│中国香港 服装 公司公布 FY1H25 业绩情况：公司收入同比+17.8%至 88.04 亿元，归母净 利润同比+23.0%至 11.30 亿元。中期业绩的亮眼增长主要得益于核心业务 品牌羽绒服的优异表现，FY1H25 公司品牌羽绒服/OEM/女装/多元化服装业 务营收分别同比+22.7%/+13.4%/-21.5%/+21.8%至 60.63/23.16/3.08/1.17 亿。此外，公司宣派中期股息 6.0 港仙/股。考虑到公司新品类带来新增长 动力、渠道优化及精细化运营成效佳，市场竞争力提升，维持"买入"评级。 品类持续迭代创新，线上线下均实现快速增长 在公司坚持品牌引领、产品创新和渠道优化的策略下，主品牌波司登收入同 比+19.4%至 52.80 亿元。上半财年，主品牌打造了防晒衣、单壳冲锋衣、 冲锋衣鹅绒服系列等爆款产品，实现品类延申，给淡季销售带来突破。此外， 雪中飞/冰洁期内收入分别同比+47.1%/+61.5%至 3.90 和 0.21 亿元。雪中 飞得益于 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 8.804 billion and a net profit of 1.130 billion for FY24/25H1, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.8% and 23% respectively, driven by successful product category expansions such as sun-protective clothing and lightweight down jackets [1] - The company received government subsidies of 196 million, an increase from 110 million in the same period last year, and reported goodwill impairment losses of 70 million [1] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.06 HKD per share [1] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue breakdown for FY24/25H1 shows down jacket/OEM/women's wear/diversified clothing revenues of 6.063 billion, 2.316 billion, 308 million, and 117 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.7%, 13.4%, -21.5%, and 21.3% [2] - The down jacket segment saw revenue contributions from brands such as Bosideng, Xuezhongfei, and Bingjie, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.4%, 47.1%, and 61.5% respectively [2] - Direct sales and wholesale revenues were 2.262 billion and 3.429 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 36.7% and 12.6% [2] Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin for FY24/25H1 was stable at 49.9%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - Operating profit margin (OPM) and net profit margin were 16.7% and 12.8%, reflecting increases of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The sales expense ratio decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 25.8%, attributed to improved cost control [2] Inventory and Receivables - Inventory increased by 53.4% year-on-year to 5.939 billion, with raw materials accounting for 35% of the total [2] - The inventory turnover days rose to 189 days, an increase of 29 days year-on-year, indicating a strategic shift in supply chain management [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a flexible supply chain management approach, allowing for timely replenishment based on sales performance [6] - New product launches in sun-protective clothing and lightweight down jackets are anticipated to enhance seasonal product offerings [6] - The company maintains a cautious revenue forecast for FY25-27, projecting revenues of 26.5 billion, 30.1 billion, and 34.2 billion respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue increase of 18% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 23% for FY2025H1, exceeding expectations with revenues reaching 8.8 billion and net profits of 1.13 billion [2]. - The gross margin slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.9%, while the net profit margin improved by 0.5 percentage points to 12.8% [2]. - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.06 HKD per share [2]. Business Segments Summary 1. **Brand Down Jackets**: - Revenue increased by 22.7% to 6.06 billion, accounting for 68.9% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 61.1% [3]. - The main brand saw a 19% increase in sales to 5.28 billion, with a gross margin of 66.3% [3]. - The "Xuezhongfei" brand experienced a significant growth of 47% in sales to 390 million [3]. 2. **OEM Business**: - Sales grew by 13.4% to 2.32 billion, representing 26.3% of total sales, with a gross margin of 20.1% [3]. - The business is expected to grow by 15% to 20% for the full year [3]. 3. **Women's Wear**: - Sales decreased by 21.5% to 310 million, with a gross margin of 61.8% [3]. 4. **Diversified Clothing Business**: - Sales increased by 21.3% to 120 million, with a gross margin of 27.6% [3]. Inventory and Supply Chain Management - The company has maintained a low initial order ratio, with first orders not exceeding 40%, allowing for flexible replenishment based on sales [3]. - Inventory turnover days increased by 29 days to 189 days, with total inventory rising by 86% to 5.94 billion [3]. Financial Projections - The company expects stable growth in the brand down jacket business of over 10% and a 15% to 20% growth in OEM business for FY2025 [3]. - Revenue is projected to grow by approximately 15% for FY2025, with net profit growth expected to outpace revenue growth [3]. Financial Metrics - For FY2025, the company forecasts a net profit of 3.57 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12 times [4]. - The projected revenue for FY2025 is 26.62 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.7% [4].

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [4] Core Views - Bosideng's FY25 interim report shows strong performance with revenue of RMB 8.8 billion (YoY +17.8%), operating profit of RMB 1.47 billion (YoY +19.6%), and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.13 billion (YoY +23.0%), all reaching historical highs for the same period [2] - The down jacket business grew significantly, contributing RMB 6.06 billion (YoY +22.7%), with new functional products like sun-protective clothing and single-shell jackets driving growth during the off-season [2] - The OEM business continued to grow, with revenue of RMB 2.32 billion (YoY +13.4%), while the women's apparel segment faced pressure, with revenue declining by 21.5% to RMB 310 million [2] - Inventory and cash flow fluctuations were observed due to controlled shipment pace, with inventory reaching RMB 5.94 billion (YoY +53.4%) and operating cash flow at -RMB 3.48 billion [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 26.3 billion, RMB 29.7 billion, and RMB 33.5 billion for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders growing at a CAGR of 15% [2] Financial Highlights - Revenue for FY25 is projected to be RMB 26.3 billion (YoY +13%), with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.54 billion (YoY +15%) [2] - Gross margin for the down jacket business was 61.1% (YoY -0.1pp), with operating profit margin improving to 20.2% (YoY +1.2pp) [2] - The Bosideng brand contributed RMB 5.28 billion (YoY +19.4%) to the down jacket segment, with a gross margin of 66.3% (YoY +0.9pp) [2] - The Snow Flying brand saw revenue growth of 47.1% to RMB 390 million, with a gross margin of 50.1% (YoY +6.0pp) [2] - The company's PE ratio is projected to be 12.2X, 10.6X, and 9.3X for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, indicating attractive valuation [2] Business Segment Analysis - Down jacket business remains the core driver, with strong growth in both the Bosideng and Snow Flying brands [2] - New functional products, such as sun-protective clothing and single-shell jackets, are contributing to off-season growth [2] - The OEM business is expanding with stable core client orders and new high-quality clients [2] - The women's apparel segment is underperforming, with a 21.5% decline in revenue and an operating loss of RMB 50.42 million [2] Valuation and Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected payout ratio exceeding 80% for the next three fiscal years [2] - The stock is considered undervalued with a low PE ratio and strong growth prospects, supported by the development of functional outerwear and lightweight down products [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating, highlighting the company's low valuation, stable growth, and high dividend attributes [2]