分地区和业务模式来看： 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 05 11 年 月 日 纺织服饰 周专题：Puma 发布 2025Q1 季报，表现符合公司预期 【本周专题】 Puma 2025Q1 业绩发布，整体表现符合预期。Puma 披露 2025Q1 季报，货币 中性基础上公司营收同比增长 0.1%至 20.76 亿欧元，毛利率同比略下降 0.6pcts 至 47%，经营利润同比下降 63.7%至 0.6 亿欧元，经营利润率同比下降 4.8pcts 至 2.8%，净利润同比下降 99.5%至 50 万欧元，根据公司披露期内由于全球经 济环境的波动（尤其是美国与中国市场），公司营收表现同比持平，与此同时随 着公司推动 DTC 业务的增长，公司期内费用率提升。从营运层面来看，截止 2025 年 3 月末公司库存同比增长 16.3%至 20.8 亿欧元，主要系在途库存增加所 致。2025Q1 的表现整体符合公司预期，当前公司预计 2025 年营收同比增长低 到中单位数。 ➢ 2025Q1 美国/中国销售低迷，公司持续跟进关税政策变化。货币中性基础 上 2025Q1 公司 EMEA 地区营 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies such as Anta Sports, Tabo, and others, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [10][29]. Core Insights - Puma's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue growth of 0.1% year-on-year to €2.076 billion, while net profit saw a significant decline of 99.5% to €500,000 due to global economic fluctuations, particularly in the US and China [1][15]. - The report emphasizes a focus on robust fundamentals and high-quality brands in the apparel and home textiles sector, anticipating performance recovery and valuation improvement in 2025 [4][26]. - The sportswear segment is expected to benefit from national policy support and increased participation in sports, with a projected revenue growth of 8.7% for key companies in 2024 [4][26]. Summary by Sections Regional and Business Model Analysis - In Q1 2025, EMEA region revenue grew by 5.1% to €890 million, while the Americas saw a decline of 2.7% to €750 million, primarily due to an 11.1% drop in North America [2][20]. - The Asia-Pacific region experienced a 4.7% revenue decline to €430 million, largely attributed to a 17.7% drop in Greater China sales [2][20]. Business Performance - Wholesale revenue decreased by 3.6% to €1.53 billion, while Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue increased by 12% to €550 million, with e-commerce growing by 17.3% [3][22]. - DTC revenue now accounts for 26.3% of total revenue, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [3][22]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, such as Anta Sports and Tabo, which have shown significant revenue growth in Q1 2025 [28]. - Other recommended companies include Hailan Home, which is expanding its business successfully, and Bosideng, which is expected to achieve good performance in FY2025 [28][29]. - In the home textiles sector, Luolai Life is highlighted for its strong performance, with a projected net profit growth of 20% in 2025 [28][29].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Add" [6] Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel industry is expected to recover in 2024, with a focus on quality brands in 2025. The apparel brands are projected to face profit pressure in 2024, with a slight improvement anticipated in Q1 2025 [1][4] - The textile manufacturing sector shows stable growth, with a significant profit increase driven by improved capacity utilization. The impact of recent tariff changes may accelerate industry optimization in the medium to long term [2][4] - The gold and jewelry sector exhibits performance divergence, with brands that focus on store expansion and product differentiation outperforming the industry average [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Apparel Brands - In 2024, the revenue of key apparel companies (A-shares only) is expected to decline by 2.2%, with a net profit drop of 24.1%. The decline in profit is more significant than revenue due to negative operating leverage and increased expense ratios [1][21] - The gross margin for key apparel companies is projected to increase by 0.4 percentage points to 56.8% in 2024, with a further increase of 1.1 percentage points to 57.4% in Q1 2025 [1][33] - Cash flow for most brands in 2024 is expected to align with performance, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [1][49] 2. Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is projected to see a revenue increase of 6.4% and a net profit growth of 26.9% in 2024, with leading companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group showing revenue growth rates of 15% and 19% respectively [2][4] - The revenue growth for key textile manufacturing companies is expected to slow down in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 due to high base effects, but overall performance remains stable [2][4] - The sector is expected to benefit from a more integrated and internationalized supply chain, particularly for leading companies [2][4] 3. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector is expected to see a revenue decline of 1.7% in 2024, with a net profit increase of 3.6%. Companies with strong product differentiation and store expansion strategies are likely to outperform [3][4] - The consumption of gold jewelry is projected to decrease by 25% in 2024, while the demand for gold bars and coins is expected to rise by 25% [3][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, recommended stocks include Anta Sports, with a projected PE of 18 times for 2025, and other companies like Tabo, Weigao Medical, and Hailan Home, with varying PE ratios [4][9] - In textile manufacturing, recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with projected PE ratios of 11 and 15 times respectively for 2025 [4][9] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chaohongji are highlighted, with projected PE ratios of 16 and 18 times for 2025 [4][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][12]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on brand innovation to drive growth, with expectations for strong performance in the Spring/Summer collection [3][8]. - The company has been recognized for its sustainable practices, being included in the "Sustainable Development Yearbook (China Edition) 2025" by S&P Global, highlighting its leadership in ESG [5][8]. - The company is actively upgrading its channels and innovating its products, which is expected to enhance brand growth and sales performance [8][11]. Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 255.6 billion, RMB 288.3 billion, and RMB 325.0 billion for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 34.98 billion, RMB 39.88 billion, and RMB 45.20 billion [10][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from RMB 0.30 in FY2025 to RMB 0.39 in FY2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [10][11]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 23% in FY2025 to 24% in FY2026 and FY2027 [10][11]. Market Performance - As of April 23, 2025, the company's stock price is HKD 3.95, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 45.57 billion [4][12]. - The stock has shown a relative performance of -1.0% over the last month, 7.6% over the last three months, and -6.0% over the last year compared to the Hang Seng Index [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its product offerings with the launch of the 2025 Spring/Summer collection, which includes innovative materials and designs aimed at meeting diverse consumer needs [8][11]. - The company has initiated a stock buyback program, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's future prospects, with a total of 69.21 million shares repurchased, representing 0.6% of total shares [9][11].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Bosideng has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strong commitment to enhancing shareholder value and confidence in its market position [2][3]. Group 1: Share Buyback Details - On April 17, Bosideng repurchased 5 million shares at a price range of HKD 3.850 to HKD 3.930, totaling HKD 19.4771 million [2]. - The stock closed at HKD 3.900 on the same day, reflecting a 1.56% increase with a total trading volume of HKD 97.5225 million [2]. - Year-to-date, Bosideng has conducted 23 buybacks, acquiring a total of 69.206 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 260 million [2]. Group 2: Buyback Breakdown - The buyback details include various dates, share quantities, and price ranges, showcasing a consistent strategy to repurchase shares at varying prices [2][3]. - For instance, on March 25, 2025, the company bought back 4 million shares at a maximum price of HKD 3.900, amounting to HKD 15.4883 million [2]. - The buyback activity reflects a strategic approach to manage share supply and potentially support stock price stability [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company is actively enhancing brand exposure through various strategic initiatives, including collaborations and fashion week events, which are expected to sustain robust growth during peak seasons [2][4]. - The acquisition of Moose Knuckles is aimed at creating a multi-brand matrix, leveraging group brand resources for accelerated growth in the Greater China region [6]. - The company is expected to achieve steady growth despite a high base in FY2025, with a projected net profit of 35 billion, 41 billion, and 46 billion for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 13, 11, and 10 [6][8]. Summary by Sections Brand Strategy - The company has launched several brand-building activities, including the "Tribute to Ice and Snow" strategy, which aims to enhance brand strength and visibility [2][4]. - The introduction of advanced sun protection clothing and stylish designs is expected to boost brand power and sales during the spring and summer off-season [6]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue growth from 23.214 billion in FY2024 to 31.778 billion in FY2027, with corresponding net profits increasing from 3.074 billion to 4.595 billion [8]. - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 38% and 44% for FY2024, followed by 11% and 15% for FY2025, indicating a strong financial outlook [8]. Market Position - The company is adjusting its product structure flexibly to maintain growth in a warm winter scenario, with a focus on quick response to sales performance [6]. - The competitive landscape is expected to improve due to conservative order placements by many domestic down jacket brands amid uncertain consumer demand [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth against a backdrop of a warm winter, with active share buybacks reflecting management's confidence [3][5] - Adjustments to earnings forecasts for FY25-27 have been made, with EPS projected at 0.30, 0.35, and 0.40 RMB respectively [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY23A was 16,774 million RMB, with a projected increase to 25,545 million RMB in FY25E, reflecting a 10.0% year-on-year growth [4][8] - Operating profit is expected to rise from 2,826 million RMB in FY23A to 4,762 million RMB in FY25E, indicating an 8.3% growth [4][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 2,139 million RMB in FY23A to 3,515 million RMB in FY25E, a 14.3% increase [4][8] - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable around 59% over the forecast period [4][8] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its brand presence in Northeast China through strategic collaborations, such as the partnership with Harbin [4][5] - The opening of a new flagship store in Beijing aims to elevate brand visibility and consumer engagement [4][5] - The introduction of AI-driven product designs is expected to improve operational efficiency significantly [4][5] Valuation Metrics - The target price is set at 5.26 HKD, based on a 14x PE valuation for FY26 [1][5] - The company’s current market capitalization is approximately 48,913 million HKD [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in the context of a warm winter, with a focus on brand strength and market expansion [3][4] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for FY25-27 have been slightly adjusted to 0.30, 0.35, and 0.40 RMB respectively, reflecting changes in revenue and expense rates [4][5] - The target price is set at 5.26 HKD, based on a 14x PE valuation for FY26 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY23A was 16,774 million RMB, with a projected growth of 10.0% for FY25E, reaching 25,545 million RMB [4][8] - Operating profit for FY23A was 2,826 million RMB, with an expected increase of 8.3% for FY25E, totaling 4,762 million RMB [4][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for FY23A was 2,139 million RMB, with a forecasted growth of 14.3% for FY25E, amounting to 3,515 million RMB [4][8] - The company has a gross margin of 59.0% and a net margin of 13.8% for FY25E [4][8] Market Strategy and Initiatives - The company is deepening its collaboration with Harbin to enhance its market presence in Northeast China [4][5] - A new concept store was opened in Beijing to elevate brand visibility and consumer engagement [4][5] - The company is leveraging digital innovations, including AI in product design, to improve operational efficiency [4][5] - The management has shown confidence through active share buybacks, totaling 5,621 million shares since January 15, 2025, amounting to 209 million HKD [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve steady growth despite a warm winter, with a projected close to 10% growth in its down jacket business for FY25 [4][5] - The target price is set at 5.26 HKD, based on a 14x PE valuation for FY26 [4][5] - The company has actively repurchased shares, reflecting management's confidence, with a total of 56.21 million shares repurchased since January 15, amounting to 209 million HKD [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY23A was 16,774 million HKD, with a projected increase to 25,545 million HKD in FY25E, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [4][8] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 2,139 million HKD in FY23A to 3,515 million HKD in FY25E, representing a 14.3% increase [4][8] - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 0.30, 0.35, and 0.40 HKD for FY25E, FY26E, and FY27E respectively [4][5] Market Position and Strategy - The company is deepening its strategic cooperation with Harbin to enhance its brand presence in Northeast China [4][5] - A new concept store was opened in Beijing, aimed at boosting brand visibility and consumer engagement [4][5] - The company is leveraging digital innovations such as AI in product design, significantly reducing development time [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth rate of 10%+ in the second half of FY2025, despite challenges in the overall consumption environment [5]. - The company has shown resilience in its operations, with a focus on product innovation and brand upgrades, which are anticipated to drive sales during the off-season [5]. - The company's strategic transformation has solidified its position as an expert in down jackets, with a continued emphasis on enhancing product quality and expanding product categories [5]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 16,774 million - 2024A: 23,214 million (growth rate: 38%) - 2025E: 25,681 million (growth rate: 11%) - 2026E: 28,930 million (growth rate: 13%) - 2027E: 32,426 million (growth rate: 12%) [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 2,139 million - 2024A: 3,074 million (growth rate: 44%) - 2025E: 3,521 million (growth rate: 15%) - 2026E: 4,041 million (growth rate: 15%) - 2027E: 4,562 million (growth rate: 13%) [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.18 - 2024A: 0.27 - 2025E: 0.30 - 2026E: 0.35 - 2027E: 0.39 [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E: - 2024A: 14.0 - 2025E: 12.3 - 2026E: 10.7 - 2027E: 9.5 - P/B: - 2024A: 3.1 - 2025E: 2.5 - 2026E: 2.0 - 2027E: 1.7 [2][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively integrating new digital technologies with traditional business models to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making accuracy [5]. - The introduction of AI-designed products has significantly reduced the development time for new designs, showcasing the company's commitment to innovation [5]. - The company is focusing on sustainable development across its entire supply chain, achieving a leading ESG rating [5].