2025 年 12 月 01 日 | H70420@capitalcom.tw | | | --- | --- | | 顾向君 目标价(HKD) | 5.7 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | 纺织服饰 | | --- | --- | | H 股价(2025/11/28) | 4.96 | | 恒生指数(2025/11/28) | 25,858.9 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 5.2/3.41 | | 总发行股数(百万) | 11,629.75 | | H 股数(百万) | 11,629.75 | | H 市值(亿元) | 414.99 | | 主要股东 | 高德康 (60.92%) | | 每股净值(元) | 1.38 | | 股价/账面净值 | 3.59 | | | 一个月 三个月 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 18.73% 10.47% 4.20% | 近期评等 | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-26 | 4.62 | 买进 | | 2024-12-02 | 4.05 | 买进 | | 2024-06-27 | 4.33 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [3][9] Core Views - The brand down jacket segment leads to steady revenue growth, with inventory turnover significantly improving [4][9] - For the first half of FY2025/26, the company achieved revenue of 8.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.189 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year [3][4] Revenue Breakdown - The brand down jacket business generated revenue of 6.568 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year, with the Bosideng main brand contributing 5.719 billion yuan, also up 8.3% [4][5] - The OEM processing business saw revenue decline to 2.044 billion yuan, down 11.7% year-on-year [4] - Women's clothing revenue decreased by 18.6% to 251 million yuan, while diversified clothing revenue fell by 45.3% to 64 million yuan [4] Channel Performance - Self-operated channels generated revenue of 2.411 billion yuan, up 6.6%, while wholesale channels achieved 3.701 billion yuan, up 7.9% [5] - The company added 88 retail stores, bringing the total to 3,558, with a net increase of 3 self-operated stores [5] Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for FY2025/26 H1 slightly increased by 0.1 percentage points to 50.0%, while the brand down jacket business gross margin decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% [6][8] - The net profit margin increased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.3% due to various factors including reduced financial expenses and stable goodwill impairment in women's clothing [8] Cash Flow and Inventory Management - The average inventory turnover days decreased by 11 days to 178 days, attributed to a slowdown in raw material procurement and inventory reduction efforts [8] - The net cash flow from operating activities improved significantly to -1.084 billion yuan from -3.483 billion yuan in the previous year [8] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.931 billion yuan, 4.382 billion yuan, and 4.786 billion yuan for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [9][11] - The projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 13.5, 12.1, and 11.1 times respectively [9][11]

光大证券发布研报称，维持波司登(03998)"买入"评级，上半财年公司在波动的外部环境下，仍实现了 收入的平稳增长和净利润率的同比提升，核心业务品牌羽绒服业务和主品牌波司登收入均实现高个位数 增长，反映了公司较为扎实和持续提升的经营质量。进入下半财年，秋冬季为羽绒服品类传统销售旺 季，期待公司龙头品牌优势凸显、销售端得到提振。 光大证券主要观点如下： 波司登发布截至2025年9月末的2025/2026财年中期业绩 2025/2026上半财年公司实现营业收入89.3亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长1.4%，归母净利润11.9亿元， 同比增长5.3%，EPS为0.1元人民币，拟每股派中期股息6.3港仙。利润率指标方面，上半财年毛利率同 比提升0.1PCT至50%，经营利润率同比提升0.3PCT至17%，归母净利率同比提升0.5PCT至13.3%。 羽绒服业务收入稳健增长 3)分线上线下（300959）来看，公司全品牌线上销售收入为14.3亿元，同比增长2.2%，其中品牌羽绒服 线上渠道实现收入13.8亿元，同比增长2.4%，在羽绒服业务收入中占比为21.1%;女装业务线上收入0.4亿 元，在女装业务中占比为17.2 ...

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng (03998), highlighting stable revenue growth and an increase in net profit margin despite a volatile external environment [1][2] Financial Performance - For the first half of the 2025/2026 fiscal year, Bosideng reported revenue of 8.93 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 1.19 billion RMB, up 5.3% year-on-year [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) stood at 0.1 RMB, with a proposed interim dividend of 0.063 HKD per share [2] - Gross margin improved by 0.1 percentage points to 50%, operating margin increased by 0.3 percentage points to 17%, and net profit margin rose by 0.5 percentage points to 13.3% [2] Business Segmentation - The revenue breakdown for the first half of the fiscal year shows that the brand down jacket business accounted for 73.6% of total revenue, with OEM management at 22.9%, women's wear at 2.8%, and diversified clothing at 0.7% [3] - Within the down jacket segment, the main brand Bosideng contributed 87.1% of revenue, with other brands like Xuezhongfei and Bingjie contributing 5.8% and 0.2% respectively [3] - Revenue from self-operated and wholesale channels in the down jacket business grew by 6.6% and 7.9% respectively, while online sales reached 1.43 billion RMB, a 2.2% increase year-on-year [3] Store Expansion - As of September 2025, Bosideng operated 3,558 down jacket stores, a net increase of 88 stores (+2.5%) since the beginning of the fiscal year [4] - The breakdown of stores shows 1,239 self-operated and 2,319 franchised stores, with increases of 3 and 85 stores respectively [4] Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin for the brand down jacket business was 59.1%, with Bosideng and Xuezhongfei at 64.8% and 47.9% respectively [5] - The overall expense ratio decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 32.4% [5] - As of September 2025, inventory was 4.74 billion RMB, a 19.9% increase from the beginning of the fiscal year but a 20.3% decrease year-on-year [5] Long-term Strategy - The company is focused on long-term development, investing in brand building and launching new products, including collaborations with top designers and flagship store renovations [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bosideng has established itself as the leading down jacket brand in China, achieving significant revenue growth while facing challenges related to market competition and succession planning [1][6]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the fiscal year 2025/2026, Bosideng reported a revenue of 8.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.19 billion yuan, up 5.3% [1][6]. - The company's revenue reached 23.21 billion yuan in 2023, with a net profit of 3.074 billion yuan, and is projected to grow to 25.9 billion yuan and 3.514 billion yuan in 2024 [5]. Business Strategy - High-end positioning has allowed Bosideng to achieve a gross margin of approximately 60%, significantly higher than the 46.4% recorded in 2017 [7]. - The company has attempted diversification into other clothing segments, including men's and women's apparel, but these efforts have largely failed [8]. Market Challenges - The brand faces increased competition from international high-end brands such as Canada Goose and Moncler, which has intensified market pressure [7]. - Consumer complaints about high prices have emerged, with average prices for Bosideng's down jackets rising from 1,000 yuan in 2017 to between 1,800 and 3,000 yuan in 2024 [7]. Leadership and Succession - The founder, Gao Dekang, is currently 73 years old and has not yet identified a suitable successor, raising concerns about the company's future leadership [1][9]. - Gao's son, Gao Xiaodong, has been involved in the business since 2002, but his performance has not met expectations, particularly in the diversified business segments [9].

We came back from Bosideng's 1HFY26 result briefing with a slightly more constructive view. Company reiterated the outlook of 10% topline growth coupled with NPM expansion in view of QTD encouraging run-rate: Oct-to-Nov offline-channel delivered DD% yoy growth boost by new products, and management view Double-11 performance as satisfactory, likely consistent with market expectations as evidenced by recent share price rally. Additionally, we are also encouraged to hear of the company's solid results from col ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Views - The company reported FY26H1 results that met expectations, with revenue of 89.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 11.89 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year. The interim dividend declared is 0.063 HKD per share [7]. - The main brand, Bosideng, showed steady growth with a revenue of 57.19 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year increase, while the overall brand down jacket business accounted for 73.6% of total revenue [7]. - The report anticipates that the cold winter and extended Spring Festival sales will drive performance in the second half of the fiscal year, supporting high-quality growth in earnings [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A at 23,214 million yuan, 2025A at 25,902 million yuan, 2026E at 28,512 million yuan, 2027E at 31,420 million yuan, and 2028E at 34,626 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.39%, 11.58%, 10.08%, 10.20%, and 10.20% respectively [1]. - Net profit forecasts are: 2024A at 3,074 million yuan, 2025A at 3,514 million yuan, 2026E at 3,938 million yuan, 2027E at 4,393 million yuan, and 2028E at 4,897 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 43.74%, 14.31%, 12.06%, 11.57%, and 11.45% respectively [1]. - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.26 yuan for 2024A, increasing to 0.42 yuan by 2028E [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its brand, products, and channels to sustain high-quality growth, with a net increase of 88 retail outlets in the down jacket business, bringing the total to 3,558 [7]. - The OEM business saw a decline in revenue due to order front-loading, while the women's clothing segment experienced a strategic contraction, closing inefficient stores and focusing on core categories [7]. Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for FY26H1 was 50.0%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the higher revenue share from the high-margin down jacket business [7]. - The report highlights improvements in inventory turnover days, which decreased by 11 days to 178 days, indicating better inventory management and preparation for peak sales [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-woven fabric industry chain, recommending continued investment opportunities in this sector [2][7]. Core Insights - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with the SW textile and apparel index rising by 2.8%, lagging behind the SW All A index by 0.2 percentage points [2][3]. - Recent industry data indicates a 3.5% year-on-year growth in retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles, totaling 1,205.3 billion yuan from January to October [20][25]. - Exports of textiles and apparel saw a significant decline, with October figures showing a 12.6% year-on-year drop, amounting to 22.26 billion USD [24][27]. - Cotton prices have shown a slight increase, with the national cotton price B index at 14,858 yuan per ton, up 0.8% [29]. - Australian wool prices have stabilized and increased, with the index at 978 cents per kilogram, reflecting a 32.0% year-on-year rise [31]. Summary by Sections Textile Sector - The report highlights the strong performance of Yanjiang, which reached a new high in stock price, and continues to recommend investment in the non-woven fabric industry chain [7][9]. - Yanjiang's deep ties with major international brands are expected to drive significant growth, with a potential market size exceeding 500 billion yuan for heat-resistant non-woven fabrics [7]. - Other companies like Noble and Jieya are also noted for their strong market positions and growth potential [7]. Apparel Sector - Bosideng's mid-term performance met expectations, with a 1.4% increase in revenue to 8.93 billion yuan and a 5.3% rise in net profit to 1.19 billion yuan [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the women's clothing sector, which has seen a turnaround in market expectations [10]. Market Trends - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in domestic demand, particularly in new consumption areas such as outdoor sports and discount retail [2][8]. - The global tariff situation is stabilizing, which is expected to maintain the competitive edge of core manufacturing [2][8]. Key Data Points - Retail sales for clothing, shoes, and textiles from January to October reached 1,205.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [20][25]. - Textile and apparel exports in October were 22.26 billion USD, down 12.6% year-on-year, with specific declines in textile and clothing categories [24][27]. - Cotton prices have increased slightly, with the national cotton price B index at 14,858 yuan per ton [29]. - Australian wool prices have shown significant year-on-year increases, with the index at 978 cents per kilogram [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [6]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated consistent profit growth exceeding revenue growth for eight consecutive years, showcasing its operational excellence and resilience [6]. - For the first half of FY2025/26, the company reported a revenue increase of 1.4% to 8.93 billion RMB and a net profit increase of 5.3% to 1.19 billion RMB, aligning with expectations [6][10]. - The company continues to focus on its core business of down jackets, with the main brand experiencing an 8.3% revenue growth, contributing significantly to total revenue [6]. - The company is actively expanding its retail network, with a net increase of 88 stores, bringing the total to 3,558 [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: - FY2024: 23.214 billion RMB - FY2025: 25.902 billion RMB - FY2026E: 28.465 billion RMB - FY2027E: 31.272 billion RMB - FY2028E: 34.210 billion RMB - The expected net profit for the same period is: - FY2024: 3.074 billion RMB - FY2025: 3.514 billion RMB - FY2026E: 3.899 billion RMB - FY2027E: 4.340 billion RMB - FY2028E: 4.754 billion RMB - The company’s gross margin is projected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations, and the net profit margin is expected to improve gradually [5][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The company reported a 1.4% year-on-year increase in revenue to 8.93 billion RMB for the first half of FY2025/26, with a net profit growth of 5.3% to 1.19 billion RMB, indicating a consistent high-quality growth trend [7] - The company has achieved eight consecutive years of profit growth outpacing revenue growth since its strategic transformation in 2018, showcasing strong operational quality and resilience [7] - The main business segment, down jackets, showed robust growth with an 8.3% increase in revenue to 6.57 billion RMB, accounting for 73.6% of total revenue [7] - The company has a strong retail network expansion, with self-operated and franchise revenues growing by 6.6% and 7.9% respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2024 to FY2028 are as follows: 23.21 billion RMB, 25.90 billion RMB, 28.47 billion RMB, 31.27 billion RMB, and 34.21 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 38%, 12%, 10%, 10%, and 9% [6] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: 3.07 billion RMB, 3.51 billion RMB, 3.90 billion RMB, 4.34 billion RMB, and 4.75 billion RMB, with growth rates of 44%, 14%, 11%, 11%, and 10% [6] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be around 57.5% to 59.6% over the forecast period [6] Operational Efficiency - The company has significantly improved its operational efficiency, with inventory turnover days reduced by 11 days to 178 days compared to the previous year [7] - Cash and cash equivalents reached approximately 3 billion RMB, with net cash increasing by 38.8% year-on-year to about 10.3 billion RMB [7]