型及花 机械设备 2025 年 11 月 06 日 研究 行业 证券分析师 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 王珂 A0230521120002 wangke@swsresearch.com 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 联系人 胡书捷 A0230524070007 husj@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 表 1: 重点公司估值表 | 公司代码 | 公司简称 | 2025/11/5 | | EPS (元/股) | | | | PE | | | PB (LF) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 收盘价（元/股） | 24A | 25E | 26E | 27E | 24A | 25E | 26E | 27E | | | 09868 | 小鹏汽车-W | 87.70 | -3.03 | ...

Core Insights - Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.US) shares rose by 5.37% to $22.96 in pre-market trading following announcements made during the 2025 Xiaopeng Technology Day [1] - The company plans to enter the Robotaxi, humanoid robot, and flying car sectors, with an L4 Robotaxi expected to launch in 2026, equipped with four Turing chips [1] - A partnership with Alibaba's ride-hailing platform, Gaode, will facilitate the operation of Robotaxi services [1] Financial Analysis - Citigroup's research report views the announcements as positive, suggesting that while the profitability of Xiaopeng's new business ventures is still in early stages, it could enhance market sentiment and elevate the stock's valuation from traditional new energy vehicle levels to higher premiums associated with AI, technology, and Robotaxi [1] - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on Xiaopeng Motors with a target price of $29.4 [1] Stock Performance - The closing price on November 5 was $21.79, with a decrease of 3.97% [1] - The pre-market price on November 6 was $22.96, reflecting an increase of $1.17 [1] - The stock has a market capitalization of $20.807 billion and a trading volume of 14.2982 million shares [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong technology stocks have shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising nearly 3% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC both increased by over 8% [1] - Alibaba, Tongcheng Travel, JD.com, and Midea Group all rose by more than 3% [1] - Other notable performers include Ctrip, Kuaishou, Tencent, BYD, Xpeng Motors, NIO, and BYD Electronics, which all saw increases of over 2% [1] Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - Hua Hong Semiconductor has surged 269.52% year-to-date, with a total market capitalization of 138.836 billion [2] - SMIC has increased by 143.55% year-to-date, with a market cap of 619.607 billion [2] - Alibaba has seen a year-to-date rise of 104.85%, with a market cap of 3.15 trillion [2] - Other companies like JD.com and Midea Group have had mixed year-to-date performances, with JD.com down 4.10% and Midea up 22.21% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is at a growth inflection point driven by "product iteration + leading smart driving," with its robot business providing long-term potential and range-extended models ensuring stable sales in the short to medium term [1] Group 1: Smart Driving and Long-term Growth - Xiaopeng Motors is positioned as a core player in smart driving, with a clear long-term growth logic [1] - The penetration rate of smart driving features (L2 and above) in China is expected to reach 82.6% by the first half of 2025 [1] - The company has developed its own Turing AI chip and VLA/VLM large models, achieving nationwide "map-free" smart driving, leading the industry [1] - Future expansion plans include Robotaxi and humanoid robots, creating a three-stage growth curve of "smart driving - Robotaxi - robots" to solidify its core advantages in intelligence and form a closed industrial chain [1] Group 2: Sales Growth Driven by Range-Extended Strategy - The company has proposed a dual strategy of "range-extended + pure electric" to drive sales growth amid declining purchase tax and diverse user demands [2] - At least five range-extended models are planned, covering sedans and SUVs, with the first X9 range-extended model expected to go into production within the year [2] - This strategy, combined with popular pure electric models like Mona M03 and P7, aims to create a more balanced product matrix, with range-extended models expected to support stable sales and market share over the next 1-2 years [2] Group 3: Shift in Product Design Logic - The company has established "design" and "intelligence" as its dual strengths, shifting the R&D process from "engineering constraints first" to "design first" [3] - The new P7 model showcases differentiated results, with plans to enhance design while leveraging self-developed Turing chips and large models for upgrades in smart driving and smart cabin experiences [3] - Organizational adjustments and modular design will improve cost control, aiming to create a "no weaknesses, multiple strengths" framework in design, intelligence, and cost, with expectations to continuously launch high-tech and cost-effective popular models [3]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is at a growth inflection point driven by "product iteration + leading smart driving," with its robot business providing long-term potential and range-extended models ensuring stable sales in the short to medium term [1] Group 1: Smart Driving and Long-term Growth - Xiaopeng Motors is positioned as a core player in smart driving, with a clear long-term growth logic. By H1 2025, the penetration rate of smart driving features (L2 and above) in China is expected to reach 82.6%. The company has focused on smart driving since its inception, developing its own Turing AI chip and VLA/VLM large models for end-to-end implementation, achieving nationwide "no-map" smart driving [2] - The company plans to expand into Robotaxi and humanoid robots, creating a three-stage growth curve of "smart driving - Robotaxi - robots," solidifying its core advantages in intelligence and forming a closed industrial chain [2] Group 2: Sales Growth Driven by Range-Extended Strategy - In response to the reduction of purchase tax and diverse user demands, the company has proposed a dual strategy of "range-extended + pure electric," planning at least five range-extended models covering sedans and SUVs. The first range-extended model, the X9, is expected to go into production within the year, complementing popular pure electric models like Mona M03 and P7 to create a more balanced product matrix [3] - The range-extended models are anticipated to become a crucial support for stable sales and market share over the next 1-2 years [3] Group 3: Product Design Logic Transformation - The company has established "design" and "intelligence" as its dual strengths, shifting its R&D process from "engineering constraints first" to "design first." The new P7 has showcased differentiated results. Future efforts will focus on enhancing design while leveraging self-developed Turing chips and large models to upgrade smart driving and smart cabin experiences [4] - Organizational adjustments and modular design will improve cost control, aiming to create a "no weaknesses, multiple strengths" framework in design, intelligence, and cost, with expectations to continuously launch high-tech and cost-effective popular models [4]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the humanoid robot industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [8]. Core Insights - Xiaopeng Technology officially launched the IRON robot, showcasing its walking capabilities and advanced features, exceeding expectations [2]. - The IRON robot features a human-like design with a flexible spine, bionic muscles, soft skin for tactile sensing, and advanced joint mobility [2]. - The robot integrates various high-tech components, including a dexterous hand with 22 degrees of freedom, a solid-state battery with a 30% weight reduction and 30% increased energy capacity, and a computing power of 2250 TOPs [2]. - The most feasible application scenarios for the robot are in guiding, shopping, and patrol functions, with expectations for deployment in stores and factories by next year [2]. - The report emphasizes that the development of humanoid robots is driven by software, suggesting that companies with full-stack self-research capabilities are likely to produce superior products [2]. - The mass production of the IRON robot is anticipated to begin in April 2026, with significant collaboration among over 1,000 team members across 10 R&D teams [2]. - The report highlights that domestic robot technology is globally competitive, with rapid advancements from various new energy vehicle companies, enhancing market confidence in domestic products [2]. Summary by Sections Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, showing projected EPS and PE ratios for Xiaopeng Motors and its supply chain partners, indicating varying levels of expected performance [3]. - Xiaopeng Motors is projected to have an EPS of 1.41 in 2026, with a PE ratio of 56.67 [3]. - Other companies such as Meih Lake and Wuzhou Xinchun show different EPS and PE ratios, reflecting their market positions and growth expectations [3].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup's report highlights XPeng Motors' announcement during the 2025 XPeng Technology Day about entering new business areas such as Robotaxi, humanoid robots, and flying cars, which is seen as an exciting development for the company [1] Summary by Categories New Business Initiatives - XPeng plans to launch L4 Robotaxi equipped with four Turing chips by 2026 [1] - The company will collaborate with Alibaba's ride-hailing platform, Gaode, to provide Robotaxi service operations [1] - Production and delivery of humanoid robots, named IRON, is expected to start by the end of 2026 [1] - Delivery of flying car units, referred to as terrestrial aircraft carriers, is also set to begin in 2026 [1] Market Sentiment and Valuation - Citigroup believes that while XPeng is in the early stages of quantifying the profitability of its new businesses, this will create positive market sentiment [1] - The report suggests that XPeng's valuation could gradually increase from its previous levels associated with new energy vehicles to a higher premium linked to AI, technology, and Robotaxi [1] - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on XPeng with a target price of $29.4 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xpeng Motors' stock experienced volatility, initially dropping over 5% before recovering to a 3.14% increase, attributed to the unveiling of their new humanoid robot, IRON, at the Technology Day event [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Xpeng Motors' stock rose by 3.14% to HKD 90.45, with a trading volume of HKD 30.82 billion [1] - The stock had previously seen a decline of over 5% during the early trading session [1] Group 2: Product Launch and Technology - The humanoid robot IRON was showcased at Xpeng's Technology Day on November 5, generating significant buzz on social media due to its lifelike walking capabilities [1] - In response to speculation about the robot's realism, CEO He Xiaopeng released an unedited video demonstrating the robot's mechanical structure, including visible components like fingers and microphones [1] - Xpeng's upcoming launch event for the X9 model, featuring the "Kunpeng" super-range technology, is scheduled for November 6 at 19:00 [1] - The X9 model is highlighted for its combination of a 63.3-degree fast-charging lithium iron phosphate battery and a 60L fuel tank, achieving a total range of 1,602 kilometers, making it the longest-range seven-seater vehicle globally [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors (09868) experienced significant stock volatility, with a rise of over 5% in the afternoon after an initial drop of more than 5% in the morning, currently trading at 90.45 HKD with a transaction volume of 3.082 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Product Launch and Innovations - At the Xiaopeng Technology Day on November 5, the company unveiled its new humanoid robot, IRON, which garnered attention on social media for its lifelike walking motion, leading to speculation about the presence of a real person inside the robot [1] - In response to the speculation, CEO He Xiaopeng released an unedited video demonstrating the robot's mechanical structure, including visible components in its fingers and back, as well as microphone arrays in its ears for auditory functions [1] Group 2: Upcoming Events - Xiaopeng Motors is set to hold a launch event for the Xiaopeng X9 on November 6 at 19:00, which will feature the "Kunpeng" super-range technology [1] - The Xiaopeng X9 will be the first vehicle to utilize the "Kunpeng" super-range technology, combining a 63.3-degree fast-charging lithium iron phosphate battery with a 60L fuel tank, achieving a total range of 1,602 kilometers, making it the longest-range 7-seater vehicle globally [1]

Group 1 - Xpeng Motors' Hong Kong stock price increased by over 5% on November 6 [1]