Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group-SW is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Baidu's AI advancements are impressive, with the AI features of Baidu Wenku surpassing 90 million MAU in January, showing a year-on-year growth of 230% in DAU. The paid user base has exceeded 40 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 60% [3] - The company's revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to be 33.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5%, with core revenue projected at 26.8 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit is anticipated to reach 3.87 billion yuan [10] - The cloud business is expected to maintain rapid growth, driven by increasing demand for AI applications and the gradual recovery of the advertising business in 2025 [10][11] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for Baidu Group is projected to be 132.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decline of 1.78% year-on-year, and is expected to grow by 3.57% to 139.9 billion yuan by 2026 [1][14] - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 24.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 1.82% from 2024 [1][14] - The Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 is expected to be 25.9 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 8.2 times [11][14]

Investment Rating - Maintained "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888 HK) [1] Core Views - Baidu's AI progress is impressive, with Baidu Wenku and Baidu Netdisk showing significant growth in AI-related metrics [3] - Baidu Wenku's AI MAU reached 90 million in January 2024, with AI DAU growing 230% YoY [3] - Baidu Netdisk's AI DAU increased 90% YoY in January 2024, with AI-driven revenue growing 120% YoY [3] - Baidu's cloud business is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2025, driven by increasing demand for AI agent development and applications [10] - The company's advertising business is expected to improve quarter by quarter in 2025, supported by economic policies and AI product commercialization [10] Financial Forecasts - 2024Q4 revenue is expected to be 33 2 billion yuan, down 5% YoY [10] - 2024Q4 adjusted operating profit is forecasted at 4 5 billion yuan, with a 15 5% margin for Baidu Core [10] - 2024Q4 adjusted net profit is projected at 3 87 billion yuan [10] - 2024-2026 Non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been revised downward to 24 2/26 0/28 3 billion yuan [11] - 2025 Non-GAAP PE is estimated at 8 2x [11] AI Progress - Baidu Wenku has launched over 100 AI features, including intelligent PPT creation, AI writing assistant, and AI search [3] - Baidu Netdisk has integrated AI features such as scanning, doodling, voice transcription, and meeting minutes [3] - The "Free Canvas" feature, jointly developed by Baidu Wenku and Baidu Netdisk, is in public testing and expected to boost user engagement and monetization [3] Financial Metrics - 2024E revenue is projected at 132 2 billion yuan, with a 1 78% YoY decline [1] - 2025E revenue is forecasted at 135 1 billion yuan, with a 2 19% YoY growth [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 23 67 billion yuan, up 16 5% YoY [1] - 2025E net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 24 1 billion yuan, with a 1 82% YoY increase [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) with a target price of HKD 128.7, compared to the current price of HKD 80.15 [3]. Core Views - Baidu Group is expected to experience a revenue decline of 4.5% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with total revenue projected at RMB 33.37 billion. The core revenue is anticipated to decrease by 2.5% to RMB 26.79 billion. The non-GAAP operating profit is expected to drop by 28.9% to RMB 4.41 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 16.5% [1]. - The online marketing business remains under pressure, but there are expectations for stabilization and gradual recovery in 2025, driven by AI commercialization efforts [1]. - Non-online marketing business, particularly cloud services, is showing promising growth, with Baidu's AI features attracting a significant number of paid users [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - For Q4 2024, Baidu's total revenue is projected at RMB 33.37 billion, a 4.5% decline year-on-year. The core revenue is expected to be RMB 26.79 billion, down 2.5% [1][11]. - The online marketing services revenue is forecasted to decrease by 8.9% to RMB 17.48 billion, influenced by a weak macro environment and the ongoing transformation of user search through generative AI [1]. Profitability - The non-GAAP net profit for Q4 2024 is expected to be RMB 3.99 billion, with a net profit margin of 12.0% [1]. - The report revises the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 24.3 billion, RMB 25.6 billion, and RMB 28.0 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 8.3%, 7.8%, and 4.6% from previous estimates [1][12]. Business Segments - The non-online marketing business is projected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024, reaching RMB 9.32 billion. This growth is attributed to the increasing demand for Baidu's cloud services and the successful monetization of Baidu Wenku's AI features, which have seen paid user numbers exceed 40 million [1]. - Baidu's AI capabilities continue to strengthen, with significant user engagement in AI applications and the introduction of innovative products like AI glasses [1][10]. Valuation - The report assigns a valuation multiple below the industry average for 2025, with advertising, smart cloud, and other businesses valued at 10.0x PE, 2.5x PS, and 3.0x PS, respectively. The target price is adjusted to HKD 128.7 [1][3].

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888 HK/BIDU US) [6] Core Views - Baidu's revenue growth in 4Q24 is expected to face short-term pressure due to a mild macroeconomic environment, AI-driven business transformation, and the exit of the Jiyue business [1] - Baidu Core 4Q24 revenue is projected to decline by 5.1% YoY to RMB 26.08 billion, with non-GAAP operating profit at RMB 4.15 billion, reflecting a 6.6pp YoY decline in non-GAAP operating margin [1] - Key catalysts for future valuation include: 1) AI-driven improvements in search advertising, 2) strong growth in AI cloud revenue, 3) faster-than-expected expansion of the Apollo Go business, and 4) stronger-than-expected shareholder return initiatives [1] Financial Forecasts - Baidu Core 4Q24 advertising revenue is expected to decline by 8.6% YoY to RMB 17.51 billion, driven by reduced ad spending in sectors like real estate, transportation, and healthcare [2] - AI cloud revenue is projected to grow 14.0% YoY to RMB 6.48 billion, driven by increased demand for GPU-related AI cloud services [2] - The exit of the Jiyue business is expected to negatively impact Baidu Core's revenue and adjusted operating profit by RMB 3 billion and RMB 900 million, respectively, in 4Q24 [2] - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024/2025/2026 are revised to RMB 24.6/27.2/30.0 billion, reflecting downward adjustments in iQiyi and Jiyue-related revenue forecasts [3][11] Valuation and Target Price - The SOTP-based target price for Baidu's US shares is adjusted to USD 115.4 (from USD 119.8), and for HK shares to HKD 112.3 (from HKD 116.4) [3][16] - The new target price implies 11.3x and 10.3x 2025/2026E non-GAAP PE, respectively [3] Segment Valuation - Baidu Core advertising business is valued at USD 78.1 per ADS (HKD 76.0 per share), based on 8.0x 2025E PE, reflecting slower-than-expected AI-driven ad revenue growth [16] - Baidu AI Cloud is valued at USD 27.7 per ADS (HKD 27.0 per share), based on 3.0x 2025E PS, reflecting slower-than-expected demand for AI cloud services [16] - iQiyi and other investments are valued at USD 9.6 per ADS (HKD 9.3 per share), with a 30% holding discount applied [16] Key Financial Metrics - Baidu's 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 131.5 billion, a 2.3% YoY decline, with adjusted net profit of RMB 24.6 billion, down 14.3% YoY [5][11] - Non-GAAP operating margin for Baidu Core is expected to decline to 15.9% in 4Q24, down from 22.5% in 4Q23 [14] - Baidu's 2024E adjusted ROE is forecasted at 9.25%, down from 11.86% in 2023 [5] Industry Comparison - Baidu's 2025E PE of 11.3x is below the average of 12.9x for online advertising peers like Alibaba, Tencent, and Google [18] - Baidu AI Cloud's 2025E PS of 3.0x is significantly lower than the average of 7.4x for cloud and AI peers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google [18]

12月20日23:00，任泽平年终秀" 点燃希望·再出发——2025中国经济十大预测 "圆满收官。 精彩回看路径："泽平宏观"视频号——直播回放 *以下为任泽平博士在12月20日点燃希望年终秀的演讲精华整理： 尊敬的各位来宾，女士们，先生们，大家好！我是任泽平！ 今天，我演讲的题目是： 点燃希望·再出发——2025中国经济十大预测 。 为什么再出发？因为时代变了，我们需要看到变化，顺势而为，重新出发。 为了今天的这场演讲，我调研了上百家企业，看了几十本书，希望对你看清时代的趋势、把握未来的机遇有帮助。在这里，我要感谢深圳人 才集团、深圳广播电影电视集团、洋河梦之蓝·手工班等合作伙伴对本次活动的大力支持！ 2024年即将过去，展望2025，未来将有哪些新趋势？发生什么大事件？诞生哪些新机遇？让我们一起点燃希望，勇敢出发！ 第一大预测 所以，我希望今天这场演讲能达到两个目的，一是讲些干货，能帮大家解决现实问题，二是年底给大家打打气，让我们振奋精神迎接新的一 年！ 朋友们，我们这个时代，不仅是变化，堪称巨变。 百年未有之大变局，旧秩序开始瓦解，逆全球化、民粹主义、地缘冲突、国际秩序调整等现 象涌现。 新秩序正在重建 ...

电商运营已步入3.0时代，AI必将成电商发展最大引擎。 本文为IPO早知道原创 作者｜Stone Jin 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，百度副总裁、百度电商总经理平晓黎在12月19日的2024百度电商生态大会上表 示，"AI必将成电商发展最大引擎，AI技术的应用深度将决定电商生意的增长速度。" 平晓黎认为，电商运营已经进入到3.0时代，电商商家必须带着AI的思维去思考生意的逻辑，升级自 己的运营模式。"智能电商时代，AI应用将成为最大的增量系数。在同等投入下，AI技术应用程度越 高，GMV的增速就越快，收益就越大。" 据百度电商商业业务部负责人吴晨霞介绍，慧播星可使直播运营成本下降超80%，GMV平均提升 62%，转化率平均提升83%，降本增效优势显著。她表示，在2025年百度优选将发放20万个慧播 星数字人免费名额，提供首个数字人直播基地及专业丰富的运营活动，并为商家提供价值亿元的数字 人直播消费补贴，让每一位百度优选商家都能拥有数字人直播能力。 除了慧播星之外，百度优选还为商家提供了整套的全域智能营销帮手百斗天枢。 通过百斗天枢，商 家可以实现在百度的信息流、搜索、百青藤的全域 ...

晚点Auto . 以下文章来源于晚点Auto ，作者晚点团队 从制造到创造，从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 两大巨头联手打造的车企，如何一夜之间深陷危机？ 文丨李梓楠 贺乾明 邱豪 魏冰 编辑丨 宋玮 龚方毅 夏一平和 5000 多名极越员工的一天 "公司最艰难的时候，没人承担，两个股东（百度和吉利）都没站出来。" 12 月 12 日下午两点半，极越 CEO 夏一平已经被数百名员工围在上海嘉定的极越总部会议室附近四个小时。 他反复强调自己是来解决问题的，绝对不会跑路。 极越员工陆续来到办公室，一部分人想搬走公司的固定资产抵扣拖欠的工资，另一些人来拿自己的物品， 以防被情绪激动的前同事顺走。当时办公室的微波炉已被人搬走，有人在群里提醒 "那是保洁公司的物 品。" 还有人想搬走冰箱，但被物业拦住， 要求出具购买证明。 晚上七点半，有员工发朋友圈称，"微波炉还在，兄弟们"。 直到晚上十点多，现场所有人都在等百度的人出现——百度确实有人来了，但不是管理层，而是买了极越 的普通员工，他们也想来维权，但被拦在大门外。门内是担心第二天人去楼空的供应商们，"这个点，饿 坏了"。 昨日夜里，极越员工内部 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888) with a target price of HKD 137 [1] Core Views - Baidu's Q3 2024 total revenue was RMB 33.6 billion, down 3% YoY, with Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 5.9 billion, down 19% YoY [1] - Baidu Core revenue was RMB 26.5 billion, with online marketing revenue at RMB 18.8 billion, down 4% YoY due to macroeconomic challenges [1] - Non-online marketing revenue grew 12% YoY to RMB 7.7 billion, driven by AI Cloud, which contributed RMB 4.9 billion, up 11% YoY [1] - AI revenue accounted for 11% of total AI Cloud revenue, with iQIYI revenue at RMB 7.2 billion, down 10% YoY [1] - The company's strong technical advantages in AI infrastructure are expected to drive further growth in AI Cloud revenue [1] AI Cloud & ERNIE - Baidu expanded its ERNIE series with two enhanced lightweight models, Speed Pro and Lite Pro [1] - ERNIE processed approximately 1.5 billion API calls daily in November, up from 600 million in August, indicating strong market adoption [1] - ERNIE Agent's daily conversations reached 15 million, with monthly active users at 704 million, up 6% YoY [1] - AI-generated content in search results increased from 18% to 20%, with AI features covering nearly 70% of Baidu App's monthly active users [1] Profitability - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 7 billion, with an operating margin of 26% [1] - The company expects continued improvement in operating margins as user behavior on Baidu Search improves [1] Autonomous Driving - Baidu's autonomous driving service, Apollo Go, provided approximately 988,000 rides in Q3 2024, up 20% YoY [1] - As of October 28, 2024, Apollo Go has completed over 8 million rides, with the sixth-generation autonomous vehicle, Apollo RT6, priced competitively below USD 30,000 [1] Investment Recommendation - The report adjusts revenue forecasts for FY2024-2026 to RMB 1338/1476/1641 billion, with Non-GAAP operating profit adjusted to RMB 274/308/342 billion [1] - The target price of HKD 137 is based on a SOTP valuation, assigning 8x P/E for advertising, 3x P/S for cloud business, and 14x P/E for iQIYI's non-advertising revenue [1] - The "Buy" rating is maintained due to Baidu's ongoing AI transformation and investments in AI Cloud and autonomous driving [1]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Baidu Group-SW (09888) with a target price of HKD 90 per share, implying a 12% upside potential [10] Core Views - Baidu's AI-driven intelligent cloud business is experiencing high growth, with AI applications and autonomous driving accelerating their market penetration [3] - The domestic internet cloud business has passed its low point, and AI is driving revenue growth in both cloud and advertising sectors [3] - Baidu's AI capabilities, particularly in natural language processing (NLP), are leading in the Chinese market, with daily calls to the Wenxin large model exceeding 1.5 billion, a 30x increase from a year ago [4] - Autonomous driving services, such as "Luobo Kuaipao," are expanding, with 100% unmanned services now available in Wuhan and other cities [5] - Despite macroeconomic pressures, Baidu's core online marketing revenue remains stable, supported by a robust user base, with Baidu APP's MAU reaching 704 million in 3Q24 [5] Financial Projections - Baidu Group's revenue is expected to be RMB 133.9 billion, RMB 140.6 billion, and RMB 148.9 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of -1%, 5%, and 6% [6] - Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be RMB 26.4 billion, RMB 28.1 billion, and RMB 31.5 billion for the same periods, with growth rates of -8%, 6%, and 12% [6] - The intelligent cloud business is expected to grow rapidly, with revenues of RMB 21.9 billion, RMB 25.2 billion, and RMB 29.0 billion for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of 17%, 15%, and 15% [11] AI and Cloud Business - Baidu's AI framework is robust, with significant advancements in NLP and generative AI, driving the intelligent cloud business [4] - The intelligent cloud business accounted for 19% of Baidu's core revenue in 3Q24, up from 4% in 2018, with AI-related revenue contributing 11% in 3Q24 [4][5] - Baidu's AI applications are accelerating, with the 2024 Baidu World Conference focusing on AI application deployment, including the release of iRAG technology, a no-code tool "Miaoda," and AI-powered glasses [4] Autonomous Driving - Baidu's autonomous driving business, including "Luobo Kuaipao" and Apollo ADFM, is making significant progress, with full unmanned services now operational in multiple cities [5] - The company has partnered with Geely to produce smart electric vehicles, with the JiYue 001 and JiYue 007 models showing strong sales growth [5] Online Marketing - Baidu's core online marketing revenue is under pressure due to macroeconomic factors and increased competition in the online advertising space, with a projected revenue decline of 2% in 2024 [5][11] - Despite these challenges, Baidu's user base remains strong, with Baidu APP's MAU reaching 704 million in 3Q24, up 6% year-on-year [5] Industry Context - The domestic public cloud market has slowed since 2021, but AI is expected to be a key driver for growth in the cloud business for internet companies [34] - Baidu's AI capabilities, including its large models and generative AI, are positioning it as a leader in the AI cloud era, with significant advantages in data, algorithms, and computing power [34]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - 2024Q3 revenue met market expectations, while adjusted net profit fell short of expectations [2] - Advertising business remains under pressure, but generative AI continues to transform the ecosystem [3] - Non-advertising business: Generative AI drives growth in cloud computing [4] - Increased customer acquisition and cloud-related costs were partially offset by expense control [5] Financial Performance - 2024Q3 revenue was RMB 33.6 billion, down 3% YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit was RMB 7 billion, down 8% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus [2] - Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 5.9 billion, down 19% YoY, below Bloomberg consensus [2] - Share repurchase amount since 2024Q3 was USD 161 million, with cumulative repurchase under the 2023 plan reaching approximately USD 1.4 billion [2] Advertising Business - 2024Q3 Baidu Core revenue was RMB 26.5 billion, flat YoY, in line with Bloomberg consensus [3] - Online marketing revenue was RMB 18.8 billion, down 4% YoY [3] - Over 20% of search results now include generative AI content, up from 18% in Q2 [3] - Advertising business is expected to remain weak in Q4, but generative AI is expected to have a positive impact in the medium to long term [3] Non-Advertising Business - Cloud revenue grew 11% YoY in 2024Q3, driven by generative AI [4] - Daily API calls for the Wenxin series models reached 1.5 billion in November 2024, up from 600 million in August [4] - AI accounted for 11% of cloud revenue in 2024Q3, up from 4.8% in 23Q4 [4] - Autonomous driving service "Luobo Kuaipao" provided 988,000 orders in Q3, up 20% YoY [4] - Fully autonomous orders accounted for over 70% of total orders nationwide, increasing to 80% in October 2024 [4] Cost and Expense Management - Baidu Core non-GAAP gross margin was 59.1% in 2024Q3, down 1.4 percentage points YoY [5] - Baidu Core non-GAAP sales and administrative expenses were RMB 4.7 billion, accounting for 17.8% of Baidu Core revenue, up 0.8 percentage points YoY [5] - Baidu Core non-GAAP R&D expenses were RMB 4.3 billion, accounting for 16.4% of Baidu Core revenue, down 2.1 percentage points YoY [5] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue is forecasted at RMB 132.4 billion, down 1.67% YoY [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company is forecasted at RMB 24.4 billion, up 20.17% YoY [1] - 2024E Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted at RMB 27.1 billion, down 5.78% YoY [1] - 2024E EPS is forecasted at RMB 8.70, with a P/E ratio of 8.60 [1] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 80.45 [8] - 52-week low/high (HKD): 75.20/119.90 [8] - Price-to-book ratio: 0.87 [8] - Market capitalization (HKD million): 183,461.35 [8] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E Non-GAAP EPS (RMB): 8.70 [18] - 2024E ROE: 9.13% [18] - 2024E gross margin: 50.16% [18] - 2024E net profit margin: 18.45% [18] - 2024E debt-to-asset ratio: 31.84% [18]