随后更具代表性的是阿里磐久AL128超节点，该产品刷新了单柜支持128张加速卡的纪录，算力集成度达到384超节点的4倍。并且，阿里在软硬件协同优 化方面进展迅速，其自研的通义千问模型，可基于磐久AL128超节点实现训练端到端加速比3倍提升，展现出独到的落地应用能力。 最新公布的则是曙光scaleX640超节点，作为世界首个单机柜级640卡超节点，算力集成度达到了昇腾384的20倍。并且，scaleX640完全基于AI计算开放 架构设计，可以兼容主流智算生态，支持不同类型的加速卡，进而实现AI模型、业务应用快速无缝迁移与深度优化。 2025年是国产超节点爆发元年，浪潮、中兴、华为、阿里、中科曙光等厂商纷纷加入计算集群建设，不仅将算力集成规模推向新高度，更在算力密度、 生态兼容方面接连取得突破，开辟出国产智算基础设施系统化升级更优路径。 根据产品发布节奏来看，华为昇腾率先打破AI算力互联瓶颈，构建出彼时业界最大规模高速总线互联超节点——昇腾384（单机柜32卡，共12个机 柜），这也几乎代表了华为在通信、计算等领域的集大成之作，为国产超节点引来巨大声量。 以超节点最前沿的scaleX640为例，数据显示，在冷却技 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts Alibaba's revenue for the quarter ending September will grow by 5% year-on-year, while adjusted profit is expected to decline by 70% to 11 billion RMB [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is forecasted to increase by 5% year-on-year [1] - Adjusted profit is anticipated to drop by 70% to 11 billion RMB [1] - Cloud business revenue growth is expected to accelerate to 30% year-on-year [1] - Customer management revenue growth is projected to remain above 10% year-on-year [1] Investment Insights - The decline in adjusted profit may be driven by aggressive investments in AI and instant retail, which are expected to solidify long-term growth prospects [1] - Alibaba's H-shares target price is adjusted from 240 HKD to 235 HKD, and the US stock target price is revised from 245 USD to 240 USD, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1] Loss Projections - Significant investments in various business segments, including Tongyi Qianwen model, DingTalk, Quark, and Amap, are expected to lead to increased losses outside of e-commerce, cloud, and international business [1] - Anticipated losses for the quarter ending September are projected to reach 5 billion RMB, widening from a loss of 1.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter [1] - Losses in the instant retail segment are expected to expand to 35 billion RMB for the upcoming quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts Alibaba's revenue for the quarter ending September will grow by 5% year-on-year, while adjusted profit is expected to decline by 70% to 11 billion RMB [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted profit is forecasted to drop significantly due to investments in AI and instant retail, leading to a loss of 5 billion RMB for the quarter, compared to a loss of 1.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter [1] - Cloud business revenue is expected to accelerate with a year-on-year growth of 30%, while customer management revenue is projected to maintain a growth rate of over 10% [1] Investment Outlook - The report indicates that investments in various business models, including Tongyi Qianwen, DingTalk, Quark, and Amap, will contribute to increased losses in e-commerce, cloud, and international business outside of core operations [1] - The target price for Alibaba's H-shares has been adjusted from 240 HKD to 235 HKD, and the target price for US shares has been revised from 245 USD to 240 USD, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] Loss Projections - The forecast for instant retail indicates that losses will expand to 35 billion RMB for the quarter [1] - It is anticipated that losses in other business segments will remain at similar levels in the coming quarters, with gradual improvement expected as AI monetization accelerates over the next 2 to 3 years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba-W (09988) is experiencing a decline of over 3% in stock price ahead of its upcoming quarterly earnings report, with expectations of mixed financial performance [1] Financial Performance - The company is projected to report a 5% year-on-year revenue growth for the quarter ending September, with adjusted profits expected to drop by 70% to 11 billion RMB [1] - Cloud business revenue is anticipated to accelerate with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%, while customer management revenue is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10% [1] Investment Impact - The adjusted profit decline is attributed to significant investments in AI and instant retail, which are expected to negatively impact short-term profitability but strengthen long-term growth prospects [1] - The company is predicted to incur a loss of 5 billion RMB for the quarter, a significant increase from a loss of 1.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter, with losses in other business segments expected to remain at similar levels in the coming quarters [1] Specific Business Losses - The forecast for instant retail indicates an expected loss of 35 billion RMB for the upcoming quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba-W (09988) is experiencing a decline in stock price, dropping over 3% ahead of its upcoming quarterly earnings report, with a current price of 167.3 HKD and a trading volume of 12.741 billion HKD [1] Financial Performance Summary - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show a 5% year-on-year revenue growth, while adjusted profit is projected to decline by 70% to 11 billion RMB [1] - Cloud business revenue is anticipated to accelerate with a year-on-year growth rate of 30%, and customer management revenue is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 10% [1] Investment and Loss Projections - The adjusted profit decline is attributed to significant investments in AI and instant retail, which are expected to lead to a larger-than-expected drop in profits [1] - The company is projected to incur a loss of 5 billion RMB in the upcoming quarter, a significant increase from a loss of 1.4 billion RMB in the previous quarter, with losses in other business segments expected to remain at similar levels in the coming quarters [1] - For instant retail, losses are forecasted to expand to 35 billion RMB in the next quarter [1]

Group 1 - Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has significantly increased its holdings in Chinese tech stocks, notably Alibaba and Baidu, indicating a strong belief in the potential of these companies amidst a global AI boom [1][2] - ARK Invest purchased approximately $16.3 million worth of Alibaba shares and raised its total holdings in Baidu to $47 million, reflecting a strategic move to capitalize on the perceived undervaluation of Chinese tech firms [1][2] - The investment decisions are seen as a signal that international capital is reassessing the intrinsic value of previously overlooked Chinese tech giants in light of the AI revolution [1][2] Group 2 - The recent surge in generative AI has prompted a reevaluation of Chinese tech companies, with Alibaba and Baidu being early adopters of large language models, enhancing their competitive edge in the AI landscape [2][3] - Cathie Wood's investment philosophy emphasizes disruptive innovation, suggesting that the narrative around Chinese stocks is shifting from business model innovation to fundamental technological advancements [3] - Despite a rebound in stock prices, many Chinese tech companies still exhibit historically low valuation metrics compared to their U.S. counterparts, presenting an attractive investment opportunity for growth-focused funds [3] Group 3 - The ongoing revaluation driven by AI is just beginning, and while it may face challenges from macroeconomic fluctuations and geopolitical tensions, overlooking the potential of Chinese AI players could result in significant opportunity costs for global investors [4]

过去数年，中概股经历了一段估值下修周期，其市值与其在全球科技版图中的实际地位严重不符。然 而，随着生成式AI的爆发式增长，正成为改写叙事的关键变量。当英伟达的市值因其在AI算力领域的 绝对垄断而屡创新高，微软、谷歌等美国科技巨头凭借AI应用重塑业务边界时，全球投资者都在寻找 下一个能够分享时代红利的价值洼地。在这样的全球视野下，中国科技公司所展现出的AI潜力，出现 价值的重估也是情理之中。 特约评论员 陈白 被誉为"女版巴菲特"的知名投资人"木头姐"凯茜·伍德（Catherine Wood），其执掌的方舟投资（ARK Invest）近日对中国科技股进行了引人注目的增持操作。 据方舟投资发布的每日交易报告，尽管阿里巴巴股价近期持续走高，创下自2021年底以来的新高， 但"木头姐"依然选择果断出手。报告披露，方舟投资通过旗下两只不同的ETF基金，共计买入了价值约 1630万美元的阿里巴巴股票。除了阿里巴巴，方舟投资同日还大幅增持了另一家中国科技公司百度的股 票，将其持仓总额提升至4700万美元。这一系列举动，被外界理解为其加码中国科技概念股意图明显。 在全球市场情绪多变的背景下，这位华尔街风向标人物的投资决策，无 ...

Group 1 - The core idea presented by Wu Yongming at the Yunqi Conference is the development framework of ASI (Artificial Superintelligence), which consists of three stages: emergent intelligence, autonomous action, and autonomous learning. Currently, the industry is in the second stage [1][4][7] - Wu emphasizes that the future AI era will involve numerous agents and robots in homes, factories, and companies, suggesting that individuals may need to utilize 100 GPU chips for their tasks [1][12] - Alibaba Cloud aims to become the computer of the AI era, with the Qwen model serving as the operating system on this supercomputer. The company plans to invest significantly in AI infrastructure, adding to its existing budget of 380 billion yuan over three years [1][9][12] Group 2 - In the capital market, Alibaba has demonstrated that ideas can be more valuable than results. Following the release of its Q2 2025 financial report, Alibaba's stock rose by 12.9% after executives provided insights into the company's strategy in local services [2][4] - Wu's speech at the Yunqi Conference led to a 9.16% increase in Alibaba's stock price, adding approximately 278.5 billion HKD (about 254.6 billion RMB) to the company's market value [4][12] - The Omdia report indicates that over 70% of the Fortune China 500 companies have adopted Generative AI, with Alibaba Cloud and the Qwen model having the highest penetration rate at 53% [15] Group 3 - The AI landscape is evolving, with Wu noting that AI's coding capabilities are crucial for achieving AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). Current AI agents primarily handle standardized and short-cycle tasks [7][8] - Wu highlights the need for models to autonomously learn and iterate to surpass human capabilities, although he does not provide a clear path for achieving this self-iteration [7][8] - The competition in AI and cloud computing is becoming inseparable, with Alibaba Cloud positioned as one of the few companies capable of full-stack self-research and joint innovation in both areas [21][23] Group 4 - Alibaba Cloud's market share in the AI cloud market is reported to be 35.8%, surpassing the combined share of its closest competitors, including Volcano Engine, Huawei Cloud, and Tencent Cloud [23] - However, in terms of token consumption, Volcano Engine has surpassed Alibaba Cloud, holding a 49.2% market share in the public cloud model usage [25]

2025 年 9 月 25 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 行业点评 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,519 | -0.10 | 32.20 | | 恒生国企 | 9,443 | -0.31 | 29.54 | | 恒生科技 | 6,323 | 0.46 | 41.52 | | 上证综指 | 3,854 | 0.88 | 14.97 | | 深证综指 | 2,506 | 1.33 | 28.00 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,186 | 3.06 | 48.75 | | 美国道琼斯 | 46,121 | -0.42 | 8.41 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,638 | -0.40 | 12.86 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,498 | -0.59 | 16.50 | | 德国 DAX | 23,667 | 0.12 | 18.87 | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [26]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing growth and demand in the AI and cloud sectors in China, particularly highlighted during Alibaba's 2025 Cloud Conference, where the company announced significant infrastructure expansion and a focus on AI capabilities [1][4]. - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth is expected to accelerate due to the release of seven new AI models, which enhance various capabilities and support the company's strategic goals [5][6]. - The report suggests a positive long-term investment outlook for the Chinese internet and software sectors, driven by advancements in AI and cloud infrastructure [1]. Summary by Sections AI Model Developments - Alibaba introduced seven new AI models at the Cloud Conference, including Qwen3-Max, which ranks third in the Chatbot Arena and demonstrates strong coding and agent tool capabilities [4][6]. - The Qwen3-Next model series is designed for scalability, reducing training costs by over 90% and improving long-text reasoning throughput by more than ten times [13]. - The Qwen3-Coder model has shown significant improvements in programming tasks, while the Qwen3-VL model excels in visual understanding and multimodal reasoning [15][16]. Infrastructure Enhancements - Alibaba Cloud's AI computing power has increased over five times in the past year, with storage capacity growing by over four times [16]. - The introduction of the Panjiu 128 super-node AI server supports various AI chips and enhances performance by 50% compared to traditional architectures [21]. - The new high-performance network HPN 8.0 supports efficient interconnection of up to 100,000 GPUs, significantly boosting storage network bandwidth [21]. Market Outlook - The report highlights structural opportunities in the Chinese internet software sector, with Alibaba's stock expected to see a potential upside of over 15% in the next 12 months [25]. - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of continued growth in AI and cloud services, positioning Alibaba and similar companies favorably for future investments [1][4].