证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 百度集团-SW（09888.HK） 24Q1 业绩前瞻：广告业务承压，关注 AI 带 2024年 04月 30日 来云业务增量 证券分析师 张良卫 买入（维持） 执业证书：S0600516070001 021-60199793 [ 盈Ta 利bl 预e_ 测EP 与S] 估 值 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E zhanglw@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 郭若娜 营业总收入（百万元） 123,675 134,598 139,591 150,045 158,539 执业证书：S0600122080017 同比(%) (0.66) 8.83 3.71 7.49 5.66 guorn@dwzq.com.cn Non-Gaap归母净利润（百万元） 20,680 28,747 28,771 31,084 34,500 同比(%) 9.82 39.01 0.08 8.04 10.99 股价走势 EPS-最新摊薄（元/股，Non-Gaap） 7.37 10.25 10.26 11.08 12.30 百度集团-SW 恒生指数 P/E（现价&最新摊薄 ...

2024年4月28日 公司研究 24Q1 广告恢复预计较弱，Create 大会展示 AI 迭代进展 ——百度集团-SW（9888.HK）2024 年一季度业绩前瞻 要点 买入（维持） 当前价/目标价：100.9/165.0港元 事件：2024年一季度业绩前瞻：我们预计百度集团1Q24总收入同比增长0.2% 至312亿元，百度核心总收入同比增长2.2%至235.1亿元。我们预计百度集 团1Q24核心非GAAP下经营利润49.7亿，同比-7.4%，对应经营利润率 作者 21.1%；百度集团1Q24非GAAP下净利润57.1亿，对应净利率18.3%。 分析师：付天姿 点评：1）在线营销服务：部分行业广告主需求恢复较弱，广告增速预计缓慢。 执业证书编号：S0930517040002 我们预计1Q24百度在线营销服务收入为168.2亿元，同比增长1.3%。增速 021-52523692 放缓主要受制于房地产、线下招商加盟等部分行业恢复速度较慢，广告需求预 futz@ebscn.com 计较为疲软。受益于线下旅游的复苏和电商平台的竞争趋烈，旅游、电商等行 业的广告需求预计表现较好。我们认为，百度持续使用AI对产品进行改造 ...

证券研究报告 | 2024年04月09日 百度集团-SW（09888.HK） 增持 24Q1 业绩前瞻：广告和云业务暂时承压，关注 AI 进展  公司研究·海外公司快评  互联网·互联网Ⅱ  投资评级：增持（维持评级） 证券分析师： 张伦可 0755-81982651 zhanglunke@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980521120004 联系人： 刘子谭 liuzitan@guosen.com.cn 事项： 公司公告：百度集团-SW（9888.HK）即将发布2024年一季度财报。 国信互联网观点：1）预计24Q1收入同比增长1%，其中预计百度核心分部实现收入232亿元，同比增长 1%。收入增速放缓主要由于广告和云业务由于需求端疲弱而承压，预计百度核心分部实现经调整经营利润 49亿元，同比-9%，经调整经营利润率21%。2）预计核心广告和智能云在一季度承压，2024Q1核心在线营 销服务实现营收171亿元，同比增长3%。增速放缓主要由于一季度地产、家居、招商加盟、汽车等垂类广 告主需求略显疲软。3）预计百度智能云收入增长8%。智能云业务于本季度仍然以模型训练需求为主，推 理部分加速增长 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 03月 16日 百度集团-SW（09888.HK） 23Q4 业绩点评:业绩基本符合预期，AI 开启增长新篇章 财务指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 买入（维持评级） 营业收入（百万元） 123,675 134,598 146,202 156,863 166,768 股票信息 增长率yoy（%） -0.7 8.8 8.6 7.3 6.3 归母净利润（百万元） 7,559 20,315 23,090 26,043 29,011 行业 传媒 增长率yoy（%） -26.1 168.8 13.7 12.8 11.4 2024年3月15日收盘价（港元） 101.30 ROE（%） 3.4 8.3 8.7 8.9 9.0 总市值（百万港元） 288,318.70 EPS最新摊薄（元） 2.70 7.26 8.26 9.31 10.37 流通市值（百万港元） 283,313.59 P/E（倍） 36.8 13.7 12.1 10.7 9.6 总股本（百万股） 2,846.19 P/B（倍） 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 流通股本（百万 ...

Share Structure and Voting Rights - Baidu's total issued shares as of December 31, 2023, consist of 2,280,411,080 Class A ordinary shares and 524,780,320 Class B ordinary shares[3] - Each Class A ordinary share carries 1 vote, while each Class B ordinary share carries 10 votes for all matters presented at the company's shareholder meetings[1] - Baidu's American Depositary Shares (ADS), each representing 8 Class A ordinary shares, are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol BIDU[1] - The company's stock split in 2021 resulted in 1 share being divided into 80 shares, and the ratio of American Depositary Shares (ADS) to Class A ordinary shares changed from 10 ADS representing 1 Class A ordinary share to 1 ADS representing 8 Class A ordinary shares[6] Financial Reporting and Compliance - The company's annual report for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, is available on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website and Baidu's investor relations website[1] - Baidu is classified as a large accelerated filer under the SEC's rules[3] - The company has submitted all required reports under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 for the past 12 months[3] - Baidu's financial statements are prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP[3] - The company has filed the auditor's report on the effectiveness of internal control over financial reporting as required by Section 404(b) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act[3] - The company maintains effective internal controls over financial reporting as of December 31, 2023, but failure to sustain these controls could undermine investor confidence[117] - Compliance with the Sarbanes-Oxley Act Section 404 requires significant costs, management time, and resources, which the company expects to continue[118] Variable Interest Entities (VIEs) and Regulatory Risks - Variable Interest Entities (VIEs) contributed 44%, 47%, and 45% of total external revenue in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively[8] - The company operates primarily through subsidiaries and contractual arrangements with VIEs in China, with revenue mainly derived from China[11] - The company uses a series of contractual agreements to control VIEs, including voting rights transfer and exclusive purchase options[9] - The effectiveness of control over VIEs through contractual arrangements may not be as strong as direct ownership, and there are potential risks and costs associated with these arrangements[10] - There is significant uncertainty regarding the interpretation and application of Chinese laws and regulations related to the contractual arrangements between the company and its VIEs[11] - The company's variable interest entity (VIE) structure faces risks due to potential non-compliance with Chinese laws and regulations, which could lead to severe penalties or loss of control over the VIE, significantly impacting operations and the value of the company's securities[12] - The company's revenue and assets are heavily reliant on its VIE, which holds necessary licenses for operations in China, and any event causing the VIE to no longer be consolidated could drastically reduce the company's value[12] - Regulatory risks in China, including data security and antitrust regulations, could severely limit or prevent the company from issuing securities to investors, negatively impacting their value[13] - The company faces uncertainties under the Foreign Company Accountability Act (HFCAA), which could lead to the delisting or prohibition of trading of its American Depositary Shares (ADS) if PCAOB cannot inspect its auditor for two consecutive years[15] - The company was previously identified under HFCAA but was removed from the list after PCAOB's decision to allow inspections of auditors in China and Hong Kong, though future risks remain[15] - The company's subsidiaries and variable interest entities in China have obtained necessary licenses and permits, including value-added telecommunications business licenses, internet news information service licenses, and others[16][17] - The company may need to obtain additional licenses, permits, or approvals in the future due to uncertainties in the interpretation and enforcement of relevant laws and regulations[17] - The company's ability to pay dividends and repay debts depends on the dividends paid by its Chinese subsidiaries and the fees paid by its variable interest entities[18] - The company's Chinese subsidiaries and variable interest entities are subject to restrictions on transferring net assets and paying dividends, with restricted amounts totaling RMB 48 billion (USD 6.8 billion) as of December 31, 2023[19] - From 2021 to 2023, the company's Chinese subsidiaries declared and distributed profits of RMB 23.1 billion (USD 3.2 billion) to Baidu (Hong Kong) Limited, subject to withholding tax[19] - The company may face increased tax liabilities and reduced available cash if its Chinese subsidiaries declare and distribute profits earned after January 1, 2008[19] - The company can only provide funds to its Chinese subsidiaries through capital contributions or loans, and to its variable interest entities through loans, subject to applicable government registration and approval requirements[19] - Baidu Group provided loans to its subsidiaries with principal amounts of RMB 14.5 billion, RMB 11 billion, and RMB 24.4 billion (USD 3.4 billion) for the years ending December 31, 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively[20] - Subsidiaries repaid principal amounts of RMB 4.9 billion, RMB 12.6 billion, and RMB 27.1 billion (USD 3.8 billion) to Baidu Group for the years ending December 31, 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively[20] - Baidu Group's subsidiaries provided loans to Baidu Group with principal amounts of RMB 3.1 billion, RMB 22.3 billion, and RMB 21.4 billion (USD 3 billion) for the years ending December 31, 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively[20] - Baidu Group repaid principal amounts of RMB 3 billion, RMB 3.1 billion, and RMB 23.3 billion (USD 3.3 billion) to its subsidiaries for the years ending December 31, 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively[20] - The company's contractual arrangements with Variable Interest Entities (VIEs) in China may not provide control as effectively as direct ownership, potentially impacting operations and financial consolidation under US GAAP[129] - Potential adverse tax consequences may arise if Chinese tax authorities determine that transactions between the company's subsidiaries and VIEs do not comply with the arm's length principle, leading to increased tax liabilities and penalties[130] - The company has provided long-term loans totaling RMB 19.2 billion (USD 2.7 billion) to nominal shareholders of VIEs, with uncertainty regarding repayment due to the profitability and operational needs of the VIEs[132] - The company is currently registering equity pledges for some VIE nominal shareholders, and there is a risk of not being able to enforce these pledges against third parties who acquire equity in good faith before registration[133] - Improper handling, theft, or unauthorized use of company seals in China could severely impair corporate governance and disrupt normal business operations[134] Financial Performance and Revenue - Baidu Group's total revenue for 2023 was RMB 134.598 billion (USD 18.958 billion), with online marketing services contributing RMB 81.203 billion (USD 11.437 billion) and other services contributing RMB 53.395 billion (USD 7.521 billion)[23] - Baidu Group's operating profit for 2023 was RMB 21.856 billion (USD 3.078 billion), a significant increase from RMB 15.911 billion in 2022[23] - Baidu Group's net profit attributable to the company for 2023 was RMB 20.315 billion (USD 2.861 billion), compared to RMB 7.559 billion in 2022[23] - Baidu Group's total assets as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 406.759 billion (USD 57.291 billion), with cash and cash equivalents amounting to RMB 25.231 billion (USD 3.554 billion)[24] - Baidu Group's total liabilities as of December 31, 2023, were RMB 144.151 billion (USD 20.304 billion), with short-term borrowings of RMB 10.257 billion (USD 1.445 billion)[24] - Baidu Group's total equity as of December 31, 2023, was RMB 243.626 billion (USD 34.314 billion)[24] - Operating cash flow increased to RMB 36,615 million in 2023, up from RMB 26,170 million in 2022[25] - Net cash used in investing activities was RMB 50,397 million in 2023, compared to RMB 3,944 million in 2022[25] - Net cash used in financing activities was RMB 1,995 million in 2023, a decrease from RMB 14,162 million in 2022[25] - Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 134,598 million, up from RMB 123,675 million in 2022[28] - Net profit attributable to the company was RMB 21,549 million in 2023, compared to RMB 7,534 million in 2022[28] - Revenue from variable interest entities and their subsidiaries was RMB 92,326 million in 2023, up from RMB 82,471 million in 2022[28] - Net profit from variable interest entities and their subsidiaries was RMB 4,021 million in 2023, compared to a loss of RMB 158 million in 2022[28] - Revenue from other subsidiaries was RMB 67,001 million in 2023, up from RMB 62,121 million in 2022[28] - Net profit from other subsidiaries was RMB 19,235 million in 2023, compared to RMB 11,640 million in 2022[28] - Total net cash increase was RMB 17,565 million in 2023, compared to a decrease of RMB 27,662 million in 2022[25] - Cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 25,231 million[29] - Short-term investments net amounted to RMB 168,670 million[29] - Total current assets reached RMB 230,255 million[29] - Fixed assets net stood at RMB 27,960 million[29] - Long-term investments net were RMB 47,957 million[29] - Total non-current assets amounted to RMB 176,504 million[29] - Total assets were RMB 406,759 million[29] - Total current liabilities were RMB 76,451 million[29] - Total non-current liabilities amounted to RMB 67,700 million[29] - Total liabilities were RMB 144,151 million[29] - Cash and cash equivalents totaled RMB 53.156 billion, with short-term investments net amounting to RMB 120.839 billion[30] - Total current assets reached RMB 212.85 billion, while total non-current assets stood at RMB 178.123 billion[30] - Total liabilities amounted to RMB 153.168 billion, with total equity reaching RMB 229.412 billion[30] - Net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 36.615 billion, while net cash used in financing activities was RMB 14.162 billion[32] - Short-term loans to variable interest entities (VIEs) and their subsidiaries were RMB 9.9 billion, and long-term loans were RMB 3.4 billion as of December 31, 2023[31] - Loans provided to nominal shareholders amounted to RMB 19.2 billion, with maturities extending from 2027 to 2047[31] - Net cash used in investment activities was RMB 50.397 billion, primarily due to cash contributions to VIEs and their subsidiaries[32] - Total assets amounted to RMB 390.973 billion, with total liabilities and equity also at RMB 390.973 billion[30] - Operating activities generated a net cash flow of RMB 25,664 million in 2022, compared to RMB 18,080 million in 2021[33][34] - Investment activities used a net cash flow of RMB 2,418 million in 2022, compared to RMB 1,853 million in 2021[33][34] - Financing activities generated a net cash flow of RMB 6,480 million in 2022, compared to RMB 25,628 million in 2021[33][34] - The company provided RMB 65 million in loans to variable interest entities (VIEs) and their subsidiaries in 2022, down from RMB 409 million in 2021[34] - VIEs and their subsidiaries received RMB 5,313 million in loans from other subsidiaries in 2022, down from RMB 5,520 million in 2021[33][34] - VIEs and their subsidiaries repaid RMB 6,480 million in loans to other subsidiaries in 2022, compared to zero repayments in 2021[33][34] Regulatory and Legal Risks - The company faces risks related to the termination of the YY Live acquisition agreement[36] - The company is making significant investments in foundational models and generative AI, but faces uncertainties in commercialization and evolving regulations[36] - The company's business structure as a Cayman Islands holding company with VIEs in China poses regulatory risks[37] - Risks related to operations in China, including economic, political, and regulatory uncertainties, could adversely affect the company's business and operations[38] - Potential delisting or trading restrictions of the company's American Depositary Shares (ADS) in the U.S. due to PCAOB inspection challenges under the HFCAA[38][39] - Volatility in the trading prices of the company's ADS and Class A ordinary shares, regardless of operational performance[39] - Dependence on online marketing services for the majority of revenue, with risks of losing clients if advertising effectiveness declines[40] - Challenges in retaining or attracting new online marketing clients due to competition, user engagement issues, or content ecosystem limitations[40] - Potential negative impact on revenue and client relationships from removing problematic listings or ads to ensure search quality[40] - Regulatory changes in China's online marketing sector could significantly affect the company's business and financial performance[41] - Implementation of measures to comply with Chinese regulatory requirements, which may temporarily impact client numbers and revenue[40] - Uncertainty in interpreting and enforcing Chinese laws, rules, and regulations, particularly in the internet and corporate sectors[38] - Risks associated with the complexity and frequent changes in China's internet and business-related laws and regulations[38] - Online marketing service revenue increased in 2021 and 2023 but declined in 2020 and 2022 due to weak demand caused by the macroeconomic environment and the impact of COVID-19[42] - The company faces challenges in maintaining and expanding its user base, which is crucial for attracting online marketing clients and sustaining user engagement[42] - Intensified competition and potential reallocation of marketing budgets may lead to downward pressure on online marketing prices[42] - The company terminated the acquisition agreement for YY Live, resulting in a potential loss of $1.9 billion in payments and $1.6 billion in escrow accounts[45] - The company faces risks of claims, disputes, or legal actions related to the terminated YY Live acquisition, which could impact its business and financial performance[45] - The company's brand "Baidu" is critical for attracting users, clients, and partners, but negative publicity could harm its brand image and business performance[43][44] - The company competes with other internet companies, online marketing platforms, and search engines in China, particularly in user traffic and search result quality[46] - The company's subsidiary, iQiyi, competes with other media and entertainment services in acquiring popular content IP and attracting advertising clients[46] - The company faces intense competition in the search and information flow sectors, with potential significant declines in user traffic if competitors offer better experiences[47] - Vertical service providers are expanding and may reduce reliance on search engines, impacting the company's user retention and traffic[47] - The company has invested heavily in AI technology, with significant progress in AI product commercialization, including cloud services, smart driving, and smart devices[48] - Expansion into new markets such as generative AI, robotaxis, smart EVs, e-commerce, and healthcare verticals presents unpredictable risks and challenges[49] - The company's new business ventures, including smart driving and electric vehicles, may face significant losses if market conditions do not develop as expected[50] - Regulatory uncertainties in China, particularly around AI and autonomous driving, could impact the company's AI-related business development[50] - The company's ability to generate revenue from new products and services is uncertain, potentially affecting gross margins and operating profits[50] - Competition in the smart transportation industry is fierce, with established tech companies and startups potentially outpacing the company in innovation and market share[50] - The company may face challenges in managing costs, talent acquisition, and scaling new businesses, which could hinder the success of new ventures[51] - The company has made significant investments in foundational models and generative AI, but faces uncertainties in commercialization and evolving legal regulations[52] - Revenue growth has slowed from 2019 to 2023 due to macroeconomic factors, COVID-19, and changes in product/service mix, customer demographics, and market competition[53] - Operating profit margins and net profit margins have fluctuated significantly from 2019 to 2023, with potential downward pressure due to increased competition and rising costs[53] - The company may experience net losses due to investment impairments and foreign exchange fluctuations, with no guarantee of future profitability[54] - The adoption of AI in products may lead to reputational damage or legal liabilities due to potential defects, biased data, or intellectual property issues[55] - The company's success depends on continuous innovation and investment in R&D to attract and retain users, with potential risks if it fails to meet user preferences or market changes[56] - The company's business may be adversely affected if it fails to keep up with technological advancements, such as integrating ChatGPT-like technologies into its products and services[57] - The company anticipates continued growth in internet access via mobile devices and IoT, driven by 5G and advanced mobile communication technologies[57] - The company's content ecosystem, including products like Baijiahao, Baidu Knows, and iQIYI, relies on attracting high-quality content creators to maintain user engagement and traffic[58] - The company faces increasing competition for high-quality content in China, which may lead to higher content acquisition costs and impact financial performance[58] - The company has committed to future minimum payments for self-produced and licensed content, which may not be recoverable if the content underperforms[58] - The company is involved in ongoing legal disputes and investigations, including securities class action lawsuits, which could result in significant financial and reputational damage[60] - The company may face legal claims related to intellectual property, defamation, or other issues arising from user-generated content on platforms like Baidu Tieba and Baidu Knows[61] - The company's platforms and services could be shut down or penalized if they host content deemed inappropriate by government agencies[61] - Baidu's core business cloud service revenue reached RMB 18.7 billion ($

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 百度集团-SW（09888） 证券研究报告 2024年03月13日 投资评级 23Q4 点评：文心生态持续赋能，云服务提供新机遇 行业 资讯科技业/软件服务 6个月评级 买入（维持评级） 当前价格 104.2港元 百度23Q4业绩概览：百度Q4总收入350亿元，同比+5.7%；Non-GAAP净利 目标价格 133港元 润78亿元，同比+44%。百度全年总收入1346亿元，同比+9%；Non-GAAP净 利润287亿元，同比+39%。 基本数据 百度Core：23Q4百度Core收入为275亿元，同比+7%；其中在线营销收入192 港股总股本(百万股) 2,846.19 亿元，同比+6%；非在线营销收入83亿元，同比+9%，主要由于智能云服务需 港股总市值(百万港元) 296,572.65 求上升；爱奇艺收入77亿元，同比+2%。23年百度Core收入为1035亿元， 每股净资产(港元) 94.52 同比+8%；其中在线营销收入751亿元，同比+8%；非在线营销收入284亿元， 资产负债率(%) 35.44 同比+9%；爱奇艺收入为319亿元，同比+10%。我们认为，面对去年经济形 ...

公司研究 | 季报点评 百度集团-SW 09888.HK 买入（维持） AI 助力商业化效率提升，打造增长新动力 股价（2024年03月12日） 102港元 目标价格 162.23港元 52周最高价/最低价 159/94.3港元 ——百度2023Q4财报点评 总股本/流通H股（万股） 279,678/225,540 H股市值（百万港币） 285,271 核心观点 国家/地区 中国 行业 传媒 【事件】公司发布23Q4财报，实现收入349.5亿（yoy+6%），略低于彭博一致预期 报告发布日期 2024年03月13日 350.1亿，调整后净利润77.6亿元，non-gaap margin 为22.2%（彭博一致预期63.8 亿），利润增长超市场预期。 1周 1月 3月 12月 ⚫ 核心广告业务稳健，云业务达到双位数增长。23Q4百度收入349.5亿 绝对表现% 7.03 0.79 -7.69 -21.24 （yoy+6%），略低于彭博一致预期，百度核心实现收入274.88亿（yoy+7%，彭博 相对表现% 1.27 -7.76 -12.08 -9.72 一致预期6.45%）。23Q4广告营销实现收入192亿（y ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) with a target price of HKD 116.96, based on a current price of HKD 96.20 [1]. Core Insights - Baidu's core business remains robust, with AI becoming a new growth driver. In Q4 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 35 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 7.8 billion, up 44% year-on-year. For the full year 2023, total revenue reached RMB 134.6 billion, growing 9% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was RMB 28.7 billion, a 39% increase [2][3]. Summary by Sections Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, Baidu's online advertising revenue was RMB 19.2 billion, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth, driven by recovery in sectors like travel and healthcare. The monthly active users (MAU) of Baidu APP reached 667 million, a 3% increase year-on-year [2]. - Non-marketing revenue in Q4 2023 was RMB 8.3 billion, up 9% year-on-year, with significant growth in smart cloud and autonomous driving services. The number of developers on the PaddlePaddle platform reached 10.7 million, serving 235,000 enterprises [2]. AI Commercialization - The commercialization of AI is progressing, with the Wenxin large model seeing over 50 million daily calls in Q4 2023, a 190% quarter-on-quarter increase. By December 2023, 26,000 enterprises were using the Wenxin model, a 150% increase from the previous quarter [2][3]. Earnings Forecast - The report forecasts adjusted EPS for Baidu for 2024-2026 to be RMB 10.76, RMB 11.44, and RMB 12.13 respectively. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to continue growing, supported by increasing advertising demand and the ongoing application of AI large models [3][10].

百度集团-SW（9888） 更新报告 买入 2023年3月4日 宏观疲软导致广告业务承压，AI变现能力待验证 罗凡环  收入和利润持续超市场预期，股票回购力度不足：23Q4 公司营业总收入为 350 亿元人 852-25321962 民币（YoY+6%，QoQ+1%），符合市场预期；Non-GAAP 经营利润 71 亿元（YoY+9%）； Simon.luo@firstshanghai.com.hk Non-GAAP 净利润 78 亿元（YoY+44%），大幅超市场预期。分业务看，百度核心收入 李京霖 275 亿元（YoY+7%）。其中，在线营销收入 192 亿元（YoY+6%），非在线营销收入 83亿元（YoY+9%）。Non-GAAP核心经营利润62亿元，；Non-GAAP核心净利润75亿 852-25321539 元。爱奇艺收入 77 亿元（YoY+2%），归属百度的净利润 4.66 亿，总体经营稳健。 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 自 23Q4 起，百度回购股票 318 百万美元，目前股份回购计划项下的累计回购额达 669 百万美元，剩余授权股票额度 43 亿美元。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group with a target price of 115 HKD [4][8]. Core Insights - Baidu's revenue growth is steady, with AI contributing significantly to revenue increases in advertising and cloud services. The incremental revenue from AI is expected to reach several billion RMB in 2024, indicating substantial profit potential as the AI ecosystem develops [2][8]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,435 billion, 1,569 billion, and 1,715 billion RMB for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 9%, and 9%. Adjusted net profits are expected to be 331 billion, 383 billion, and 432 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 15%, 16%, and 13% [2][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - Baidu achieved a revenue of 350 billion RMB in Q4 2023, a 6% year-on-year increase. Core revenue grew by 7% to 275 billion RMB, driven by an 8% increase in online marketing revenue, primarily from AI cloud services. Monthly active users of the Baidu app reached 667 million, a 3% increase year-on-year [2][3]. 2. Business Segment Performance - AI cloud revenue increased by 11% to 57 billion RMB, with generative AI applications contributing 4.8% to AI cloud revenue. The company’s gross margin improved by 1.4 percentage points, while operating profit margin increased by 1.5 percentage points. Adjusted net profit rose by 51% to 81 billion RMB, corresponding to a net profit margin of 23% [2][3][11]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that while the mobile ecosystem business may face pressure due to macroeconomic factors affecting advertising demand, AI will provide new revenue streams. The integration of AI into core operations is expected to enhance product quality and reduce operational costs. The revenue estimates for FY2024E, FY2025E, and FY2026E have been slightly adjusted to 1,435 billion, 1,569 billion, and 1,715 billion RMB respectively [2][8][11].