Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q4 2024 was 341 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit reaching 67 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year [1][7] - The core advertising revenue declined by 7%, while the AI-driven cloud business showed significant growth, with a 26% increase in revenue [2][17] - The company is focusing on AI technology to enhance search advertising and cloud services, with expectations of adjusted net profits of 272 billion yuan in 2025 and 301 billion yuan in 2026 [21] Financial Performance Summary - For Q4 2024, Baidu's core revenue remained stable year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue fell by 14% [12] - The online marketing revenue for Q4 2024 was 179 billion yuan, down 7% year-on-year, primarily due to economic pressures on small and medium enterprises [14] - The adjusted net profit margin for Baidu's core business was 24% in Q4 2024, with operating expenses remaining stable at 122 billion yuan [7][14] Business Segment Analysis - The non-marketing revenue for Baidu's core business reached 98 billion yuan in Q4 2024, a 43% increase, driven by the intelligent cloud business [17] - The AI cloud business revenue was 71 billion yuan, reflecting a 26% year-on-year growth, with significant increases in API call volumes [2][17] - Apollo Go achieved 100% fully autonomous driving operations in China, providing over 1.1 million rides in Q4 2024, a 36% increase year-on-year [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group-SW is "Buy" (maintained) [6][13]. Core Views - The growth of intelligent cloud services is accelerating due to AI, and the advertising business is expected to gradually recover with the macroeconomic environment and AI search commercialization [6]. - The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted to 27.1 billion and 29.4 billion CNY respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 32 billion CNY, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 8.7%, and 8.7% [6]. - The current stock price of 88.35 HKD corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.7, 8.0, and 7.4 for 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 was 134.6 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly by 1.1% to 133.1 billion CNY, followed by a growth of 3.2% in 2025 [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was 28.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 39.0%. The forecast for 2024 is a decline of 6.1% to 27.0 billion CNY, with a slight recovery in 2025 [9]. - The gross margin for 2025 is projected to be 51.3%, while the net margin is expected to be 19.7% [9]. - The diluted EPS for 2025 is estimated at 9.4 CNY, with a PE ratio of 8.7 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group-SW is "Buy" (maintained) [6][13]. Core Views - The growth of intelligent cloud services is accelerating due to AI, and the advertising business is expected to gradually recover with the macroeconomic environment and AI search commercialization [6]. - The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted to 27.1 billion and 29.4 billion CNY respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 32 billion CNY, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 8.7%, and 8.7% [6]. - The current stock price of 88.35 HKD corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 8.7, 8.0, and 7.4 for the years 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 134.6 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly to 133.1 billion CNY, a decrease of 1.1% [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 is 28.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 39.0%. The forecast for 2024 is a decline to 27.0 billion CNY, a decrease of 6.1% [9]. - The gross margin is projected to be 52.6% in 2023, slightly improving to 52.9% in 2024, while the net margin is expected to decrease from 21.4% in 2023 to 20.3% in 2024 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group-SW is "Buy" (maintained) [6][13]. Core Views - The growth of intelligent cloud services is accelerating due to AI, and the advertising business is expected to gradually recover with the macroeconomic environment and AI search commercialization [6]. - The non-GAAP net profit forecast for 2025-2026 has been slightly adjusted to 27.1 billion and 29.4 billion CNY respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 32 billion CNY, corresponding to year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 8.7%, and 8.7% [6]. - The current stock price of 88.35 HKD corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 8.7, 8.0, and 7.4 for the years 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 was 134.6 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. For 2024, revenue is expected to decline slightly to 133.1 billion CNY [9]. - Non-GAAP net profit for 2023 was 28.7 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 39.0%. The forecast for 2024 is a decline to 27.0 billion CNY [9]. - The gross margin for 2025 is projected to be 51.3%, with a net margin of 19.7% [9]. - The diluted EPS for 2025 is expected to be 9.4 CNY, with a PE ratio of 8.7 [9].

Financial Performance - Baidu's total revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 34.951 billion (USD 4.675 billion), a decrease of 2% year-over-year[6]. - Operating profit for Q4 2024 was RMB 5.392 billion (USD 537 million), down 27% year-over-year[6]. - Net profit attributable to Baidu for Q4 2024 was RMB 2.599 billion (USD 711 million), a 100% increase year-over-year[6]. - Total revenue for the fiscal year 2024 was RMB 133.1 billion (USD 18.2 billion), a year-on-year decrease of 1%[20]. - Net profit attributable to Baidu for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 20,315 million, an increase from RMB 23,760 million in the previous year[36]. - Baidu's net profit margin for the twelve months ending December 31, 2023, was 15%[46]. - Baidu's total revenue for the twelve months ending December 31, 2023, was RMB 55.83 billion, with a projected increase to RMB 66.40 billion for 2024[37]. - The company expects total revenue for the twelve months ending December 31, 2024, to be approximately RMB 133,125 million, indicating a slight decrease of 1%[46]. Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's core revenue for Q4 2024 was RMB 27.7 billion (USD 3.8 billion), a year-on-year increase of 1%[4]. - Online marketing revenue decreased by 7% year-on-year to RMB 17.9 billion (USD 2.5 billion) in Q4 2024[4]. - Non-online marketing revenue increased by 18% year-on-year to RMB 9.8 billion (USD 1.3 billion), primarily driven by the smart cloud business[4]. - Total revenue for Baidu Group was RMB 27,488 million for the three months ended December 31, 2023, representing a year-over-year increase of 1% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4%[42]. - Baidu's core business generated RMB 103,465 million in revenue, while iQIYI contributed RMB 31,873 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 8%[46]. Expenses and Profitability - Research and development expenses for Q4 2024 were RMB 5.5 billion (USD 756 million), a decrease of 12% year-over-year[14]. - Sales and management expenses for Q4 2024 were RMB 6.7 billion (USD 915 million), an increase of 14% year-over-year[14]. - Operating profit for Baidu Group was RMB 21,856 million, with an operating margin of 16% for the same period, reflecting a 3% decrease year-over-year[46]. - The company reported a total cost and expenses of RMB 112,742 million, which is a 1% decrease year-over-year[46]. - Baidu's adjusted EBITDA for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 31,863 million, with an expected increase to RMB 30,587 million for the twelve months ending December 31, 2024[58]. User Engagement and Growth - The average daily API calls for the Wenxin series models reached 1.65 billion in December 2024, with external API calls increasing by 178% quarter-over-quarter[11]. - Monthly active users of Baidu Wenku's AI features reached 94 million in December 2024, a year-over-year increase of 216%[11]. - As of December 2024, Baidu's monthly active users reached 679 million, a year-on-year growth of 2%[4]. - The company anticipates continued growth in user data and market expansion, supported by new product developments and technological advancements[54]. Investments and Cash Flow - Free cash flow for the fiscal year 2024 was RMB 13.1 billion (USD 1.8 billion), while free cash flow excluding iQIYI was RMB 11.1 billion (USD 1.5 billion)[24]. - The net cash used in investing activities for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, was RMB 48,657 million, indicating a significant investment outflow[52]. - Baidu's capital expenditures for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, amounted to RMB 11,154 million, indicating ongoing investments in infrastructure[52]. - The company experienced a net cash outflow from financing activities of RMB 9,876 million for the twelve months ended December 31, 2023, reflecting changes in capital structure[52]. Market Position and Recognition - Baidu was included in the S&P Global Sustainability Yearbook 2024, highlighting its progress in ESG practices[11]. - The company is focusing on market expansion and new product development, as indicated by increased R&D spending and asset growth[37].

撰 文 / 路 行 设 计 / 赵昊然 2025年春节期间，DeepSeek横空出世，国人狂喜，美股轰动——彼时周一开盘，纳斯达克市值前十 的科技公司总市值亏损近1万亿美元。2月6日，OpenAI宣布向所有用户开放ChatGPT搜索，无需注 册。 此后，吉利、岚图、东风、智己、奇瑞、长城、比亚迪、长安等车企相继宣布与DeepSeek AI大模 型深度合作，这场围绕着智能驾驶算法、车载AI系统、用户生态构建的"技术联姻"，将中国汽车产 业在智能化下半场的生态级竞争推向新的阶段。 而从年初就打响的智驾之战，正迅速蔓延到整个汽车市场。2月9日，长安汽车发布"北斗天枢 2.0"智能化战略，深蓝汽车将高阶智驾下探到10万元车型；次日，比亚迪发布"天神之眼"智驾系 统，7.88万元的海鸥将搭载，号称开启全民智驾时代。 尽管业内对于高阶智驾的定义尚未形成统一定论，但无论如何，从辅助驾驶的普及到高阶自动驾驶 的突破，从单一技术迭代到全产业链协同革新，一场以人工智能为核心的变革浪潮已势不可挡。 中国在这一领域正在实现领跑。L2级自动驾驶功能渗透率增速迅猛，城区NOA功能从高端车型下 沉至10万元级市场，端到端大模型的落地让"全 ...

作者｜C叔 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据IPO早知道消息，百度智能云日前成功点亮昆仑芯三代万卡集群，这也是国内首个正式点亮的自研 万卡集群。据悉，百度智能云将进一步点亮3万卡集群。 将于近日点亮3万卡集群。 本文为IPO早知道原创 这一重大突破标志着百度在人工智能算力领域迈出了坚实的一步，不仅为百度自身的技术发展提供了 强大动力，也为整个中国科技界、互联网行业和AI行业带来了新的发展机遇。 万卡集群的建成不仅为百度带来了强大的算力支持，还推动了模型降本的趋势。在过去一年中，整个 行业都在努力降低大模型的使用成本，而算力紧张是导致成本居高不下的重要因素之一。百度通过自 研芯片和大规模集群的建设，不仅解决了自身算力供应的问题，还为整个行业提供了新的思路和方向 。 从算力上看，超大规模并行计算能力可实现训练效率跃升，万卡集群可将千亿参数模型的训练周期大 幅降低，满足AI原生应用快速迭代的需求。同时也能支持更大模型与复杂任务和多模态数据，支撑 Sora类应用的开发。此外，万卡集群能够支持多任务并发能力，通过动态资源切分，单集群可同时 训练多个轻量化模型，通过通信优化与容错机制减少算力浪费，实现训练成本指数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group-SW is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Baidu's AI advancements are impressive, with the AI features of Baidu Wenku surpassing 90 million MAU in January, showing a year-on-year growth of 230% in DAU. The paid user base has exceeded 40 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 60% [3] - The company's revenue for Q4 2024 is expected to be 33.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5%, with core revenue projected at 26.8 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit is anticipated to reach 3.87 billion yuan [10] - The cloud business is expected to maintain rapid growth, driven by increasing demand for AI applications and the gradual recovery of the advertising business in 2025 [10][11] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for Baidu Group is projected to be 132.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight decline of 1.78% year-on-year, and is expected to grow by 3.57% to 139.9 billion yuan by 2026 [1][14] - The adjusted net profit is forecasted to be 24.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 1.82% from 2024 [1][14] - The Non-GAAP net profit for 2025 is expected to be 25.9 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 8.2 times [11][14]

Investment Rating - Maintained "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (09888 HK) [1] Core Views - Baidu's AI progress is impressive, with Baidu Wenku and Baidu Netdisk showing significant growth in AI-related metrics [3] - Baidu Wenku's AI MAU reached 90 million in January 2024, with AI DAU growing 230% YoY [3] - Baidu Netdisk's AI DAU increased 90% YoY in January 2024, with AI-driven revenue growing 120% YoY [3] - Baidu's cloud business is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2025, driven by increasing demand for AI agent development and applications [10] - The company's advertising business is expected to improve quarter by quarter in 2025, supported by economic policies and AI product commercialization [10] Financial Forecasts - 2024Q4 revenue is expected to be 33 2 billion yuan, down 5% YoY [10] - 2024Q4 adjusted operating profit is forecasted at 4 5 billion yuan, with a 15 5% margin for Baidu Core [10] - 2024Q4 adjusted net profit is projected at 3 87 billion yuan [10] - 2024-2026 Non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been revised downward to 24 2/26 0/28 3 billion yuan [11] - 2025 Non-GAAP PE is estimated at 8 2x [11] AI Progress - Baidu Wenku has launched over 100 AI features, including intelligent PPT creation, AI writing assistant, and AI search [3] - Baidu Netdisk has integrated AI features such as scanning, doodling, voice transcription, and meeting minutes [3] - The "Free Canvas" feature, jointly developed by Baidu Wenku and Baidu Netdisk, is in public testing and expected to boost user engagement and monetization [3] Financial Metrics - 2024E revenue is projected at 132 2 billion yuan, with a 1 78% YoY decline [1] - 2025E revenue is forecasted at 135 1 billion yuan, with a 2 19% YoY growth [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 23 67 billion yuan, up 16 5% YoY [1] - 2025E net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 24 1 billion yuan, with a 1 82% YoY increase [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baidu Group-SW (9888.HK) with a target price of HKD 128.7, compared to the current price of HKD 80.15 [3]. Core Views - Baidu Group is expected to experience a revenue decline of 4.5% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with total revenue projected at RMB 33.37 billion. The core revenue is anticipated to decrease by 2.5% to RMB 26.79 billion. The non-GAAP operating profit is expected to drop by 28.9% to RMB 4.41 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 16.5% [1]. - The online marketing business remains under pressure, but there are expectations for stabilization and gradual recovery in 2025, driven by AI commercialization efforts [1]. - Non-online marketing business, particularly cloud services, is showing promising growth, with Baidu's AI features attracting a significant number of paid users [1]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - For Q4 2024, Baidu's total revenue is projected at RMB 33.37 billion, a 4.5% decline year-on-year. The core revenue is expected to be RMB 26.79 billion, down 2.5% [1][11]. - The online marketing services revenue is forecasted to decrease by 8.9% to RMB 17.48 billion, influenced by a weak macro environment and the ongoing transformation of user search through generative AI [1]. Profitability - The non-GAAP net profit for Q4 2024 is expected to be RMB 3.99 billion, with a net profit margin of 12.0% [1]. - The report revises the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 24.3 billion, RMB 25.6 billion, and RMB 28.0 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 8.3%, 7.8%, and 4.6% from previous estimates [1][12]. Business Segments - The non-online marketing business is projected to grow by 12.3% year-on-year in Q4 2024, reaching RMB 9.32 billion. This growth is attributed to the increasing demand for Baidu's cloud services and the successful monetization of Baidu Wenku's AI features, which have seen paid user numbers exceed 40 million [1]. - Baidu's AI capabilities continue to strengthen, with significant user engagement in AI applications and the introduction of innovative products like AI glasses [1][10]. Valuation - The report assigns a valuation multiple below the industry average for 2025, with advertising, smart cloud, and other businesses valued at 10.0x PE, 2.5x PS, and 3.0x PS, respectively. The target price is adjusted to HKD 128.7 [1][3].