Group 1 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 1.09% on January 8 [1] - Key Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with GDS Holdings rising over 8% and Bilibili increasing by more than 6% [1] - Tencent Music and Alibaba both rose by over 5%, while other companies like Kingsoft Cloud and Xpeng Motors saw increases of over 3% [1] Group 2 - JD.com and Vipshop experienced gains of over 2%, while ZTO Express and Futu Holdings rose by more than 1% [1] - Ctrip and NetEase had slight increases, indicating a generally positive market sentiment for these companies [1] - Conversely, Baidu and Bawang Tea House fell by over 3%, with Manbang and NIO also experiencing declines of more than 1% [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,310.99, up by 161.68 points or 0.62% as of January 8, 16:00 Eastern Time [1] - The index reached a high of 26,311.38 and a low of 25,998.12 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 50.328 million shares [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 125.439, up by 0.92% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 615.197, down by 0.13% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] Stock Price Movements - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 616.000, down by HKD 8.500 or 1.36%, with an ADR price of 615.197, reflecting a decrease of 0.13% [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 142.600, down by HKD 3.300 or 2.26%, with an ADR price of 150.458, reflecting an increase of 5.51% [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 124.300, down by HKD 2.900 or 2.28%, with an ADR price of 125.439, reflecting an increase of 0.92% [3] - Other notable movements include Meituan-W down by 3.35% and JD.com down by 2.02% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group has been selected as a core asset in the consumer tourism sector for 2026, reflecting its strong position in the recovering domestic consumption market and its structural transformation into a comprehensive tourism service provider [1] Company Analysis - Ctrip is transitioning from a "single booking platform" to a "full-domain tourism ecosystem service provider," leveraging its leadership in the online travel agency (OTA) sector [1] - The company reported a revenue of 47 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and an adjusted operating profit of 13.29 billion yuan, up 11.5%, showcasing its resilience in a challenging consumption environment [1] - Ctrip's unique model combines a stable domestic base, international business expansion, comprehensive supply chain coverage, and technological empowerment, resulting in a profit structure characterized by both cyclical resilience and growth certainty [1] Industry Trends - The tourism service industry is experiencing growth, benefiting from an increase in domestic tourism service share and a significant recovery in inbound tourism due to favorable policies aimed at stimulating consumption [3] - The domestic tourism market is showing steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 18% in tourist numbers and 11.5% in tourism revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 [8] - The OTA penetration rate in China reached 51.5% in 2024 and continues to rise, indicating a shift towards online booking as the mainstream mode of tourism consumption [8] Competitive Advantages - Ctrip has established significant barriers to entry through brand and traffic advantages, with a user repurchase rate exceeding 60% [4] - The company has a robust supply chain covering over 750,000 hotels in more than 600 cities domestically and 1.2 million hotels globally, providing a comprehensive one-stop service for diverse travel needs [4][5] - Ctrip's early global expansion through acquisitions has positioned it well in the international market, with substantial growth in international OTA bookings [5] Business Structure - Ctrip's domestic tourism business remains the core profit base, contributing over 80% of revenue in the first three quarters of 2025, supported by both high-end and budget travel segments [10] - The international tourism business is rapidly growing, with a significant increase in bookings for inbound and outbound travel, expected to become a core growth driver alongside domestic operations [10] - The company has diversified its service offerings beyond core travel bookings to include vacation products, scenic tickets, and business travel management, enhancing its revenue structure [11][12] Investment Outlook - Ctrip is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity due to its low valuation and strong growth potential, with expected revenue growth of 15%-17% in 2026 [13] - The company is anticipated to benefit from policy incentives, rising consumer income, and a recovering tourism market, positioning it as a key player in the consumption recovery cycle [14]

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities has initiated a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group-S (09961) with a target price of 660 HKD, citing manageable short-term impacts from public opinion and international political fluctuations on outbound tourism [5]. Financial Projections - The firm forecasts that by 2026, Trip.com Group's domestic revenue will grow by 9%, outbound revenue by 12%, and pure overseas revenue by 34%, leading to an overall revenue growth rate of 13% and an adjusted net profit of 22.58 billion RMB [5]. - The current valuation stands at approximately 16.5 times earnings, which is below the historical average of 18 times, suggesting a buying opportunity during price dips [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Citic Securities believes that the company's market share as a leading Online Travel Agency (OTA) is unlikely to decrease in the long term, with minimal impact on overall performance [5]. - The report anticipates that domestic hotel prices will stabilize and recover gradually, with a relatively stable competitive landscape, allowing Trip.com to maintain a leading growth rate in its domestic hotel business [5]. - Trip.com is expected to drive continued high growth in its overseas business, enabling the company to enhance its market share and profit release [5].

Core Insights - Ctrip's AI-driven "Smart Engine 3.0" has achieved large-scale application, resulting in over 10% order growth for merchants and a 38% GMV growth for core partners, indicating a strategic shift towards empowering ecosystem partners for efficiency and revenue growth [1][3] Group 1: AI Tools and Their Impact - The newly launched "CTRIPS Fusion Model" has provided over 10% order growth in group travel scenarios by making traffic allocation logic transparent, allowing merchants to optimize specific factors for increased exposure [3] - The AI dual-mode shopping guide system handles 80% of pre-sales inquiries, enabling customer service to focus on high-value transactions, thus significantly freeing up human resources for partners [3] - AI video generation tools for team travel routes have drastically reduced traditional video production costs, allowing partners to create a large volume of personalized marketing materials at near-zero marginal costs [3] Group 2: Addressing Service and Experience Challenges - Ctrip has improved the Net Promoter Score (NPS) for team travel services by over 20 percentage points through the "fitting NPS" mechanism and AI interventions, enhancing customer repurchase rates and word-of-mouth recommendations [3] - The company aims to solve fundamental operational challenges for partners, thereby increasing customer loyalty and continuous traffic flow [3] Group 3: Strategic Market Positioning - In the car rental sector, Ctrip is avoiding price wars by implementing "Worry-Free Rental" standards and directing traffic towards quality products and merchants, demonstrating that empowering good products can yield higher conversion returns [4] - Ctrip's CEO emphasizes that innovation is about creating incremental value for the industry, with all AI investments and model upgrades aimed at enhancing partner efficiency and revenue growth [4]

该行预计，2026年携程集团境内收入增9%、出境增12%、纯海外增34%，整体收入增速13%，经调整净 利润225.8亿人民币。当前估值约16.5倍，低于历史估值中枢的18倍，建议逢低布局。展望2026年，该行 预计境内酒店价格逐步企稳回升、竞争格局相对稳定的背景下公司境内酒店业务增速有望持续领先行 业，同时Trip.com有望驱动海外业务延续高增长，携程有望持续实现份额提升与利润释放。 智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，首予携程集团-S(09961)"买入"评级，对应目标价660港元。 报告表示，近期携程集团因自身舆论及国际政治波动对出境旅游造成的潜在负面影响，股价波动。该行 认为，短期舆论影响可控，长期而言，集团作为OTA龙头份额大概率不会降低，且对整体业绩影响较 小。 ...

Market Overview - The tourism market is experiencing a comprehensive recovery during the 2026 New Year's holiday, with a surge in demand for staggered travel, significant growth in both hotel and flight bookings, and a strong rebound in the inbound market [1][11] - The domestic market is stimulated by the "take 3 days off and rest 8" holiday mode, leading to over 100% year-on-year increase in hotel search volume and over 50% increase in flight search volume [1][8] - The inbound market benefits from visa-free policies, with hotel search volume increasing by over 150% year-on-year, and popular destinations include Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing, Sanya, and Shenzhen [1][11] User Behavior Changes - There is a notable change in user behavior, with an expected over 50% share of hotel stays being cross-province, and the demand for stays of 2 days or more increasing [2][17] - The majority of travelers are from major cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, with a north-south travel preference emerging [2][20] - Emerging destinations like Kaifeng and Jingdezhen are gaining popularity due to rich New Year activities, with the top 10 hotel destinations including major cities from both northern and southern China [2][21] Thematic Consumption Trends - The focus on thematic consumption is driving the growth of related hotel categories, with keywords like hot springs, private baths, and skiing becoming top search terms [2] - Hotel night volume for hot spring hotels has increased by over 600% year-on-year, while ski hotels have seen a 200% increase [2] - Events such as New Year concerts and music festivals significantly boost hotel bookings, with surrounding hotel search volume increasing by over 800% during specific events [2] Operational Strategies for Hotels - Hotels need to optimize operations from multiple dimensions, particularly in OTA operations by leveraging booking peaks around December 31 [3] - Marketing strategies should include participation in EBK seasonal coverage activities to gain exclusive traffic and enhance sales through online travel photography campaigns [3] - Product design should focus on early booking discounts and multi-night stay packages, integrating New Year activities, attraction tickets, and dining services to meet the needs of staggered travel and long-term stays [3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,526.37, down by 184.08 points or 0.69% from the previous close [1] - The index opened at 26,762.67 and reached a low of 26,524.46 during the trading session [1] - The trading volume was 44.585 million shares, with an average price of 26,644.01 [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 127.849, down 0.74% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 630.832, down 0.26% from the Hong Kong close [2] - Alibaba Group (W) saw a decline of 1.31%, closing at HKD 150.800 [3] - China Ping An increased by 4.96%, closing at HKD 72.000 [3] - Meituan (W) had a slight increase of 0.66%, closing at HKD 106.100 [3] ADR Performance - Tencent's ADR price was USD 630.832, reflecting a decrease of 0.26% compared to its Hong Kong stock price [3] - Alibaba's ADR was USD 146.902, down 2.58% from its Hong Kong counterpart [3] - HSBC's ADR closed at USD 127.849, down 0.74% compared to its Hong Kong price [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the social services industry [4] Core Insights - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism data aligns with expectations, highlighting strong performance in duty-free shopping, inbound tourism, and leading mountain scenic spots. The upcoming long Spring Festival holiday and supportive tourism policies are expected to boost domestic consumption, leading to a favorable outlook for the social services industry in 2026 [3][7] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism Demand - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, with 142 million domestic trips taken during the New Year holiday, a 5.2% increase compared to 2024. Total domestic travel expenditure reached 84.79 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year, with per capita spending increasing by 1.1% [7] Duty-Free Shopping - Duty-free sales in Hainan during the New Year holiday showed significant growth, with 442,000 items sold, a 52.4% increase year-on-year. The number of shoppers reached 83,500, up 60.6%, and total spending was 712 million yuan, a 128.9% increase. This growth is attributed to the official launch of duty-free operations, new policies, and promotional activities [7] Scenic Spots - Leading mountain scenic spots demonstrated strong visitor elasticity, with Huangshan receiving over 75,000 visitors (up 76.5% year-on-year), Emei Mountain hosting 126,200 visitors (up 20.9%), and Changbai Mountain seeing a 41% increase in visitors compared to 2025. The expansion of high-speed rail and airports contributed to this growth [7] Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) - Inbound tourism and winter sports are emerging as key growth drivers, with a 110% year-on-year increase in inbound ticket bookings and a more than 30-fold increase in experiential product bookings. Domestic winter sports continue to be a central theme for growth in 2026 [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the inbound tourism market in China is entering a "golden window period," with inbound group travel becoming a new growth engine for tourism companies [1] - Policies such as visa exemptions and transit visa waivers are continuously optimized, facilitating foreign tourists' travel to China [1] - The inbound tourism market in China is expected to reach a scale of $180 billion by 2030, but its current contribution to GDP is still less than 0.5%, indicating significant growth potential [1] Group 2 - The tourism platform is becoming a key hub connecting domestic travel agencies with international customers by building a global product matrix and implementing refined scenario operations and cross-border integrated marketing [1] - Ctrip's inbound team travel has seen a fivefold increase in visitor numbers since May 2025, with daily order volume increasing eightfold, demonstrating strong momentum [1] - The tourism industry is undergoing a profound transformation from "traffic-driven" to "experience-driven" due to the deep application of AI technology and the rapid growth of the inbound tourism market [1] Group 3 - Personalized travel demands are being captured and responded to more accurately through multimodal AI technology, which can understand text, voice, images, and videos [2] - AI has improved recommendation effectiveness by 8%, significantly enhancing product recommendation rates for merchants, with a 20-fold increase in efficiency compared to previous manual operations [2] - Ctrip's AI-driven "Smart Engine 3.0" has achieved large-scale application, bringing over 10% order growth to merchants and enabling core partners to achieve a GMV growth rate that outpaces the market by 38% [2]