在Labubu引发的全球哄抢潮背后，中国潮玩市场的竞争维度正在发生深刻变化。作为曾经几乎以一己之力打开潮玩市场认知的泡泡玛特，如今正面对新 阶段的挑战。而在它的强光之外，52TOYS这样少有的"非泡泡玛特系"选手，正在用一套截然不同的打法试图在夹缝中突围：它强调IP孵化的原创性、重 仓自有模型体系、构建深度垂直的兴趣社群，与泡泡玛特所擅长的大众化盲盒路径形成鲜明对比。 从我们的研究结论来看，这种"非典型"的潮玩逻辑，并非只是一个小而美公司的另类路径，而可能是潮玩行业在穿越红利期、迈入新阶段中的关键变量。 在潮玩的"内容资产化"逐渐浮现、盲盒经济遭遇信任门槛的当下，52TOYS代表着一种更接近"内容消费基础设施"的尝试，其成败关乎的不只是一个品牌 的突围，更是行业底层逻辑的一次自我更新。 但我们也需承认，潮玩不是一个轻巧的赛道。无论是IP生命周期的不确定性、线下零售模型的高成本，还是"内容+产品"的商业逻辑实现资本价值， 52TOYS所面对的挑战并不亚于泡泡玛特曾经走过的那条路。甚至可以说，它的路径更为艰难，因为它无法复制泡泡玛特那种"盲盒红利+快渠道投放"的 组合拳，只能靠内容深耕和产品耐性，一步步打磨信任。 ...

过去的工具产品，核心是满足功能性需求，核心是"解决问题"。它追求性价比，在过剩的制造业中高度同质化，陷入无止境的内卷。例如：普通充电宝、 基础款白T恤、工业量产的马克杯。 情绪经济的爆发并非偶然，其背后是现代社会中两种普遍且强烈的心理驱动力量。 首先，是追求"即时满足"的心理。在信息过载、节奏飞快的时代，用户的耐心阈值被不断拉低，以抖音为代表的平台成功揭示了这种偏好：用几十秒内提 供强烈情绪刺激的内容，替代了需要长时间沉浸才能获得满足的书籍或长视频。 这种心理映射到消费领域，催生了产品设计和营销的革新。消费品需要像设计抖音爆款视频一样，打造"连续性惊喜"与"不可能的高点"。例如，以戏剧性 冲突、极致性价比的错位或反常规的渠道出现，瞬间抓住用户注意力，提供强烈的即时情绪反馈。 消费中的玩具属性：提供即时乐趣、好奇与探索欲。如：泡泡玛特盲盒（过程即乐趣）、能种植的植物书签（互动与期待）、一款剧情类游戏（情感沉 浸）。 道具属性：充当社交货币或身份标签。如：观夏香薰（东方美学品味的道具）、老铺黄金（文化自信与新贵身份的道具）、一双限量球鞋（圈层归属的道 具）。 当中国制造让"拥有一件好工具"的成本变得极低，竞争的赛 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the home furnishing and light industry sectors, highlighting the impact of real estate downturns on furniture manufacturing and related businesses [1][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Revenue and Profit Decline**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the furniture manufacturing industry experienced a revenue decline of 6.7% and a profit drop of 19.1%, with 30% of companies reporting losses [1][5]. - **Government Support**: The Chinese government has allocated 150 billion yuan in 2024 for consumer goods replacement programs, with retail sales in the home furnishing sector expected to grow by 3.6% [1][5][6]. - **Market Adaptation**: Leading home furnishing companies are expanding their product offerings and services, focusing on comprehensive design and one-stop services, while also increasing their international presence [1][6]. - **Smart Mattress Market Growth**: The smart mattress market is projected to reach nearly 60 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15% [1][7]. - **Packaging Industry Dynamics**: The packaging sector is facing challenges due to raw material cost fluctuations and competition, but consolidation efforts are expected to improve profitability [3][8]. Additional Important Content - **Toy Market Growth**: The toy market in China is experiencing growth, driven by IP culture, with retail sales of licensed products reaching 140.4 billion yuan in 2023, a 0.8% increase year-on-year [3][11]. - **Durable Consumer Goods Export Outlook**: The export chain for durable consumer goods is expected to perform well due to recovering demand and depleted overseas inventories, with key companies to watch including Yongxin Co., Hengli Co., and Songlin Technology [3][14]. - **Market Performance Comparison**: From the beginning of 2025 to the present, the light manufacturing sector has seen a performance increase of 16.83%, closely mirroring the 16.85% increase of the CSI 300 index [4][13]. Investment Recommendations - **Focus on Leading Companies**: Investment recommendations include leading custom home furnishing companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhihong Home, as well as soft furniture companies like Kuka Home and Mousse [3][13]. - **Emerging Opportunities**: Companies with strong international growth potential in the toy industry, such as Pop Mart and Blukoo, are highlighted for their robust overseas performance [3][12].

Core Insights - Bubble Mart has significantly increased its market share from 8.5% to 14% over five years, while its market value has surpassed HKD 250 billion, indicating a strong competitive position in the collectible toy industry [1] - The company has built a robust ecosystem that attracts users, creators, and market attention through its platform model, which focuses on artist discovery, IP incubation, and omnichannel operations [1][8] - The current landscape of the collectible toy industry shows that competitors like TOP TOY and 52TOYS struggle with IP dependency and lack core competitive advantages, leading to a challenging environment for smaller brands [1][8] Market Position - Bubble Mart's CEO Wang Ning has projected that the company can easily achieve revenue of RMB 30 billion by 2025, highlighting its dominant market position with few real competitors [2] - The company has shifted the focus from artist value to operational efficiency, which has allowed it to capitalize on market trends and consumer demand [4][8] - The average inventory turnover for Bubble Mart is 83 days, significantly better than the industry average of 180 days, reinforcing its operational efficiency [9] IP Strategy - Bubble Mart's IP operation capabilities have been enhanced, allowing it to create a standardized pipeline for artist signing, user research, and supply chain response, which can turn creative ideas into potential bestsellers in as little as six months [8][9] - The company has secured 14 out of 32 hot-selling collectible toy IPs for 2024, representing a 43% market share in that segment [9] - Bubble Mart's approach to IP management resembles that of a talent agency, focusing on nurturing top-tier IPs while also identifying emerging artists early [8][11] Industry Trends - The collectible toy market in China is increasingly defined by marketing-driven strategies that prioritize consumer engagement over artistic integrity, contrasting with more established markets like Japan, where cultural depth and storytelling are key [12][14] - Smaller brands in the Chinese market face significant challenges in competing with Bubble Mart's scale and efficiency, leading to a trend of reliance on short-term marketing tactics [11][12] - The potential for new entrants exists, but they must navigate a landscape where replicating Bubble Mart's success is nearly impossible due to high barriers to entry and established market dominance [14]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 25,577.23, down by 51.65 points or 0.20% from the previous close [1] - The index reached a high of 25,757.83 and a low of 25,577.23 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 35.27 million [1] Major Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 117.167, up by 0.83% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 600.386, down by 0.43% compared to the Hong Kong close [2] Stock Price Movements - Tencent Holdings (00700) latest price is HKD 603.000, down by HKD 13.000 or 2.11% [3] - Alibaba Group (09988) latest price is HKD 148.600, down by HKD 5.500 or 3.57% [3] - HSBC Holdings (00005) latest price is HKD 116.200, down by HKD 1.100 or 0.94% [3] - AIA Group (01299) latest price is HKD 80.650, up by HKD 1.650 or 2.09% [3] - BYD Company (01211) latest price is HKD 96.000, down by HKD 2.500 or 2.54% [3] - Baidu Group (09888) latest price is HKD 118.700, down by HKD 7.300 or 5.79% [3] - JD.com (09618) latest price is HKD 113.500, down by HKD 2.100 or 1.82% [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media industry [3] Core Insights - The media sector outperformed the market in November, with the Shenwan Media Index rising by 1.69%, surpassing the CSI 300 Index by 4.14 percentage points, ranking 7th among 31 industries [4][20] - The number of game approvals reached a new high, with 178 domestic games and 6 imported games approved in November, contributing to a total of 1,625 game approvals from January to November, a year-on-year increase of 26.8% [4][28] - The gaming market revenue in October was 31.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, driven by strong product cycles from leading companies [4][32] Summary by Sections Market and Industry Review - The media sector's performance in November was strong, with a 1.69% increase in the Shenwan Media Index, outperforming the CSI 300 Index [4][20] - The current TTM-PE for the Shenwan Media Index is 42.6x, positioned at the 82.2% percentile over the past five years [20][26] Gaming - The number of game approvals in November was the highest in three years, with a total of 178 domestic and 6 imported games approved [28] - The gaming market revenue in October was 31.4 billion yuan, with mobile gaming revenue at 22.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.4% [32] - The overseas revenue for Chinese self-developed games reached 1.799 billion USD in October, marking an 11.9% year-on-year increase [41] Film and Television - The total box office in November reached 3.553 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 89.3%, primarily due to the success of "Zootopia 2" [49] - The top five films in November included "Zootopia 2," which grossed over 2.2 billion yuan within nine days of release [60] - The drama market saw high viewership, with "The Tang Dynasty Mysteries" leading with 1.5 billion views [67] AI Applications - The report highlights advancements in AI video models, including the launch of the O1 video model by Keling AI, which allows users to generate videos from text prompts [79] - PixVerse V5.5 was released, enabling the creation of multi-angle narrative videos [84] - Google's Gemini 3 Pro and Nano Banana Pro were launched, showcasing significant improvements in AI capabilities [91] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gaming sector's new product cycles and AI applications, recommending companies such as Giant Network, G-bits, and K-Game Network [96] - The December investment portfolio includes Giant Network, K-Game Network, Bilibili, and HuiLiang Technology [7]

今年10月，苹果CEO库克将访华的第一站放在了上海THE MONSTERS十周年巡展上，还收到了定制版Labubu。「苹果也是好起来了，蹭上泡泡玛特了」 网友在社交媒体上调侃道。 科技巨头「朝圣」潮玩IP的这一幕，也为中国消费史写下了一个极具象征意义的注脚。 然而，站在2025年12月的寒冬回望，这充满象征意义的一幕却充满了复杂的意味。就在库克「朝圣」的前后，泡泡玛特在资本市场却遭遇了惊心动魄的 「过山车」——虽然业绩单依然烫手，但股价却自8月高点回撤了近40%。 业绩赚疯了，海外杀疯了，但投资人却被「吓」跑了。 这就是泡泡玛特当下的魔幻现实。 走进线下的泡泡玛特门店，你依然能看到人头攒动的景象，但敏锐的玩家已经嗅到了风向的变化。 自8月底放开预售以来，曾经「一娃难求」的Labubu在二级市场开始显露疲态。与财报中「海外增速超1000%」的狂热相比，国内「闲鱼」等二级市场上 的Labubu隐藏款价格已较巅峰期腰斩。摩根士丹利等大行在年末纷纷下调目标价，理由很直接：担心热度见顶（Peak Growth）。 但这并不妨碍泡泡玛特交出一份「炸裂」的成绩单： ▲2020年上海国际潮玩展上Labubu就已成「门面担当」 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes on China IP Retailers and Toy Tracker Industry Overview - The report focuses on the China IP retail and toy industry, highlighting key players such as Pop Mart, Miniso, and Bloks, along with their sales performance and product launches during the holiday season [1][6][7][8]. Key Points Pop Mart - **Sales Growth**: Online sales growth in China accelerated in November, reaching 104% year-over-year, primarily due to increased supply on Tmall and Douyin [1][11]. - **Product Launches**: Introduced two new IPs, Hatti and SUPERTUTU, with Hatti's figure toys achieving over 2,000 sales on Tmall shortly after launch [9]. - **Secondary Market Prices**: Prices for most IPs remained stable, with Twinkle Twinkle's premium correcting to 20%-30% from a higher level in October [1][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Sufficient supply of plush toys was noted during the peak season, with a slight decline in app monthly active users (MAU) but a pickup in Google Trends towards the end of November [23][44]. Miniso - **Product Popularity**: Launched Zootopia products across various channels, with some items gaining popularity among IP fans [1][7]. - **Sales Performance**: US credit card sales growth was approximately 60% in November, slightly lower than 64% in October, but still ahead of management's guidance of 50%-55% for Q4 [24][27]. - **Local Procurement**: Increased local procurement mix noted as a potential headwind to gross profit margin (GPM), but it may help meet local demand and mitigate tariff risks [1][24]. Bloks - **New IP Launches**: Continued rapid pace of new IP launches, including female-focused products like the Powerpuff Girls and Zootopia [1][8]. - **Sales Feedback**: Mixed feedback on new products; while assembly vehicle toys received positive consumer feedback, female product performance was less impressive based on online sales [10][20]. Additional Insights - **US Market Trends**: Black Friday 2025 saw a growth of 3.7-4.2% year-over-year, with notable in-store traffic in toys and kids' apparel, although overall growth was slower compared to the previous year [22]. - **Marketing Efforts**: Miniso's marketing included celebrity appearances, such as Paris Hilton visiting a store, which may enhance brand visibility [1][7]. - **Regulatory Environment**: The Chinese government is supporting the development of local IPs and cultural products, which may benefit companies in the IP retail sector [46]. Conclusion - The China IP retail and toy industry is experiencing significant growth driven by new product launches and increased online sales. However, challenges such as local procurement impacts on margins and mixed product performance need to be monitored closely. The upcoming holiday season will be crucial for assessing the overall health and future prospects of these companies in the market [1][24][46].

Core Insights - The trend toy market is experiencing significant growth, driven by unique designs, aesthetic appeal, and the integration of popular culture, with a focus on collectible value and resale potential [3][5]. Market Overview - The global trend toy market has shown a consistent double-digit growth rate, with the market size increasing from $20.3 billion in 2020 to $41.8 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20% [3]. - In China, the trend toy market is booming, with the market size projected to grow from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 35% [5]. Product Categories - The trend toy market is diverse, with blind boxes representing the largest segment, accounting for over one-third of the market share in 2024. Additionally, assembly toys and building sets make up nearly one-fifth of the market [1]. Policy Support - Recent government initiatives, such as the measures issued by the State Council in January 2025, aim to promote the development of fashionable domestic products, including trend toys, by encouraging collaborations in various sectors [7][10]. - Policies emphasize the integration of traditional Chinese culture into product design and support the development of original intellectual property (IP) brands, which is expected to enhance the trend toy market [8][10]. Consumer Behavior - The trend toy market appeals to younger consumers as a means of self-expression and social interaction, with urbanization and rising disposable incomes contributing to increased consumer engagement [11]. - Innovative products like blind boxes create emotional connections with consumers, enhancing their willingness to purchase and increasing repurchase rates due to the anticipation of "hidden" and "popular" items [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][6]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference highlighted the optimization of the "two new" policies, with an expected increase in subsidy amounts for 2026, from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025. The support scope is expanding from physical consumption to service consumption, indicating a significant policy shift [6][7]. - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: emotional consumption, intelligent consumer goods, branded apparel, and manufacturing upgrades. It emphasizes the potential for increased concentration in the paper and textile manufacturing sectors due to manufacturing efficiency, innovation capabilities, and environmental standards [6][7]. - The report identifies specific companies with growth potential, such as Pop Mart, which has a replicable IP incubation capability, and Morning Glory, which is undergoing a transformation [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index decreased by 1.04%, ranking 16th among 28 industries, while the textile apparel index fell by 2.57%, ranking 26th [6][11]. - The report notes a mixed performance in sub-sectors, with packaging printing up by 1.45% and home goods down by 1.75% [11]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies like Sun Paper, Baiya Co., and Huali Group, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4][6]. - Specific attention is drawn to the outdoor retail expansion of Li Ning, which is seen as a positive operational change [6][7]. Raw Material and Pricing Trends - The report tracks raw material prices, noting increases in MDI and TDI, while soft foam polyether prices have decreased. The prices of various paper products are also monitored, with packaging paper continuing to rise [19][44]. - The report highlights the rebound in broadleaf pulp prices and the overall positive trend in the paper sector, suggesting potential profitability improvements for companies like Sun Paper [7][44]. Export and Domestic Market Dynamics - The report discusses the recovery of exports, particularly in the furniture sector, with a noted increase in non-wood furniture exports from Vietnam to the U.S. [6][7]. - It also highlights the challenges in the domestic real estate market, with significant declines in property sales and construction activity [69][89].