张颐武 现代生活节奏越是加快，人们对于情感沟通和心理慰藉的需求就越强烈。换成近年来流行的一个词汇， 就是大家普遍渴望"情绪价值"。于是，以情感满足为核心的新消费形态迅速发展壮大，尤其是在年轻群 体中。在追求自我表达与情感认同的过程中，人们愿意为文化归属、身份认同等精神价值买单，进而推 动着消费从"实用"向"悦己"转变。加之社交媒体、算法推荐等重构着当今社会的消费体验，很多商品通 过精准触达情绪，激发新的消费需求。这就解释了为何"谷子经济"持续火热，潮玩IP产品供不应求，热 门歌手演唱会门票开票秒光……相关调查显示，2013年以来，我国情绪消费相关产业的年均复合增长率 高达12％，预计2025年市场规模将突破2万亿元，成为消费升级的重要推动力。在年轻一代中，"情绪价 值"更是成为精神刚需，超九成青年认可"情绪价值"，近六成青年愿意为情绪价值买单。 不过，情绪价值的满足显然不只是通过花钱消费来"犒劳自己"或"悦己"，年轻一代在情感层面一直没有 停止向内"求诸于己"以及向外寻求共鸣。比如，今年以来网上流行的一些热梗，从"发疯文学"到"勇敢 小羊"，追求的基本都是情感表达与共鸣。作为2025年年末收官热梗的"爱你老己 ...

证券研究报告 商贸零售 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 29 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 蜜雪冰城美国首店在好莱坞开业，花西子入驻美国最大美妆零售平台 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——新消费行业周报（2025.12.22-2025.12.26） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 蜜雪冰城美国首店在好莱坞开业，打开美洲拓店版图。近日蜜雪冰城洛杉矶好莱坞 店正式营业。该店位于星光大道"中国剧院"正对面，所在商圈消费成熟。作为蜜 雪冰城在美洲市场开出的首家门店，标志着其全球化战略再迈出关键一步，根据郑 州晚报，目前蜜雪冰城在美国的多家新店正在紧张筹备当中，巴西、墨西哥等美洲 国家的门店也在稳步推进，持续深化品牌全球化战略。美国首店延续品牌经典菜单 设计，涵盖冰淇淋、纯茶、果茶、奶茶、现磨咖啡等多个产品系列，同时结合美国 消费者的饮食偏好，提供多种小料、糖度选项，门店菜单信息显示，招牌冰淇淋售 价 1.19 美元，冰鲜柠檬水售价 1.99 美元，拿铁咖啡售价 2.99 ...

图片来源：Wind 2025年第三季度，泡泡玛特整体收益同比增长245%-250%。具体来看，中国收益同比增长185%-190%， 海外收益同比增长365%-370%，其中亚太同比增长170%-175%；美洲同比增长1265%-1270%；欧洲及其 他地区同比增长735%-740%。同期，泡泡玛特线下渠道收益同比增长130%-135%，线上渠道收益同比增 长300%-305%。 然而，业绩上涨股价却下跌。财报发布当日，泡泡玛特股价报收250.4港元/股，跌幅8.08%，市值一天 内蒸发295.46亿港元，缩水至3362.73亿港元。 国海证券针对泡泡玛特所发布的研报中指出，其多维度运营IP并变现。且产品品类扩张逻辑持续验证， 海外市场表现持续超预期。但需警惕"IP续约不及预期""单一IP依赖"的风险，此外，还包括供应链供货 及质量控制、人力/租金/营销成本增加、市场竞争加剧、估值中枢下移、海外扩张不及预期等。 12月8日，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）股价单日跌幅超8%，创近8个交易日新低。截至收盘，股价报200.4港 元，较8月高位以来跌近40%，市值蒸发逾1600亿港元。 值得注意的是，市场看空情绪持续升温 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market showed structural differentiation on October 16, 2025, with the Hang Seng Index slightly declining by 0.09% to 25,888.51, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 1.18% to 6,003.56. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.09% to 9,259.46, and the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index increased by 1.13% [2][5][8] - The coal sector outperformed with a rise of 3.29%, supported by domestic "anti-involution" policies and strong coal consumption demand. The Wind Hong Kong Coal II Index continued to show strength [5][8] - The durable consumer goods sector also performed well, driven by expectations of overseas expansion for Hong Kong's trendy toy companies, bolstered by the presence of overseas tech giants at a recent event [2][8] Market Performance - On October 16, 2025, the total turnover of the Hong Kong stock market reached HKD 275.43 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 15.822 billion [2][8] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index increase by 0.10%, and the CSI 300 rose by 0.26%, while the Wind All A Index declined by 0.44%. The dividend index increased by 1.03% [5][8] Sector Analysis - In the sector performance, coal (+3.29%), pharmaceuticals (+1.31%), and transportation (+1.12%) led the gains, while steel (-2.81%), electronics (-1.99%), and basic chemicals (-1.43%) faced declines [5][8] - Concept indices showed significant movements, with the online education index rising by 7.49%, the education index by 5.48%, and the Chinese education index by 4.64%. Conversely, the medical beauty index fell by 8.74%, the security monitoring index by 5.21%, and the smart home index by 3.60% [5][8] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that trade frictions will not alter the slow bull market in Hong Kong stocks, with potential for new highs driven by three main directions: AI technology and new consumption, continued inflows from southbound funds, and improved global liquidity from potential U.S. interest rate cuts [8]

Market Overview - On September 18, 2025, the Hong Kong stock market recorded a total trading volume of HKD 413.31 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 6.288 billion [2][7] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.35% at 26,544.85, while the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 0.99% to 6,271.22 [5][7] Industry Insights - The recent announcement by Huawei regarding the evolution and goals of its Ascend chips over the next three years has positively impacted the semiconductor sector, leading to a significant rise in the Wind Hong Kong Semiconductor Index [2][7] - The performance of leading toy companies in Hong Kong has driven the Wind Hong Kong Durable Consumer Goods Index upward, attributed to the strengthening of their IP matrix, expectations of a consumption peak season, and a technical rebound from previous declines [2][7] Sector Performance - Among the major sectors, basic chemicals (+2.10%), pharmaceuticals (+0.31%), and defense industry (+0.10%) led the gains, while the comprehensive sector (-6.98%), coal (-2.47%), and media (-2.42%) faced declines [5][7] - Concept indices such as online education (+11.61%), financial IC (+8.49%), and Foxconn (+6.14%) showed strong performance, while local brokerage (-5.65%), liquor (-3.16%), and Wanda shares (-2.96%) lagged [5][7] Future Outlook - The report suggests three potential directions for the Hong Kong stock market to reach new highs: 1) AI technology and new consumption are expected to drive market growth, 2) continued inflows from southbound funds will enhance pricing power, and 3) improvements in global liquidity due to potential further rate cuts by the US could support market growth [2][7]

Core Viewpoint - Jingji Zhinong is expanding into the IP industry to create a second growth curve for profitability while maintaining its core modern agriculture business [1][3] Group 1: Company Developments - Jingji Zhinong established an IP operation company, Shenzhen Yingyunzhidi Cultural Technology Co., Ltd., to explore new business opportunities in digital cultural creativity [1][3] - The company aims to diversify its revenue streams and enhance its risk resistance through this new venture [3][4] - The company has achieved significant success in modern agriculture, with per capita profit levels entering the industry's top tier [3][4] Group 2: Market Insights - The IP industry is experiencing a golden development period, with a market size reaching trillions of yuan [2][4] - The global IP licensing market reached $356.5 billion in 2023, with China's market expected to exceed 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, showing a 40% year-on-year growth [3][4] Group 3: Strategic Focus - Jingji Zhinong's long-term vision for Yingyunzhidi is to become a global top-tier fashion and art brand, focusing on trendy art and cultural products [4][6] - The company plans to accelerate the development of its new business and strategically allocate funds based on market performance [4][6] - The company is adopting a differentiated strategy by focusing on post-link operations in the IP market, enhancing user engagement and monetization [5][6] Group 4: Competitive Advantages - Jingji Zhinong's unique joint operation model aims to deeply bind with IP partners, providing comprehensive services from derivative product development to user engagement [6][7] - The company has made substantial progress in forming strategic partnerships with emerging artists and leading game IPs, indicating strong growth momentum [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expanding its business into digital cultural creativity through the establishment of a new subsidiary, aiming to diversify its revenue streams and enhance its risk resilience [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Shenzhen Jiankai Zhino Agricultural Technology Co., Ltd. has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Shenzhen Jiutian Zhishang Technology Media Co., Ltd., which focuses on digital cultural creative businesses, including the development, operation, and sales of trendy IP products [2] - The registered capital of Shenzhen Yingyun Zhidai Cultural Technology Co., Ltd. is 1 million yuan, with Jiutian Zhishang holding 51% and a professional team holding 49% [2] Group 2: Market Positioning - The company differentiates itself from other IP operators by focusing on the back-end operations of IP, targeting existing user bases for precise engagement and differentiated monetization strategies [2] - The cultural consumption market is evolving, with younger generations seeking personalized experiences, leading to a shift in focus from front-end IP incubation to back-end operational capabilities [2] Group 3: Future Plans - The company currently has over 50 IPs available for collaboration and plans to sign and incubate more than 10 new IPs in the coming year [2] - The new IP operation business will adopt a light asset model, allowing for quicker business cycles and potentially creating a significant profit stream as a second growth curve for the company [2]