Core Insights - The trend toy market is experiencing significant growth, driven by unique designs, aesthetic appeal, and the integration of popular culture, with a focus on collectible value and resale potential [3][5]. Market Overview - The global trend toy market has shown a consistent double-digit growth rate, with the market size increasing from $20.3 billion in 2020 to $41.8 billion in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20% [3]. - In China, the trend toy market is booming, with the market size projected to grow from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a CAGR of 35% [5]. Product Categories - The trend toy market is diverse, with blind boxes representing the largest segment, accounting for over one-third of the market share in 2024. Additionally, assembly toys and building sets make up nearly one-fifth of the market [1]. Policy Support - Recent government initiatives, such as the measures issued by the State Council in January 2025, aim to promote the development of fashionable domestic products, including trend toys, by encouraging collaborations in various sectors [7][10]. - Policies emphasize the integration of traditional Chinese culture into product design and support the development of original intellectual property (IP) brands, which is expected to enhance the trend toy market [8][10]. Consumer Behavior - The trend toy market appeals to younger consumers as a means of self-expression and social interaction, with urbanization and rising disposable incomes contributing to increased consumer engagement [11]. - Innovative products like blind boxes create emotional connections with consumers, enhancing their willingness to purchase and increasing repurchase rates due to the anticipation of "hidden" and "popular" items [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][6]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference highlighted the optimization of the "two new" policies, with an expected increase in subsidy amounts for 2026, from 150 billion yuan in 2024 to 300 billion yuan in 2025. The support scope is expanding from physical consumption to service consumption, indicating a significant policy shift [6][7]. - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: emotional consumption, intelligent consumer goods, branded apparel, and manufacturing upgrades. It emphasizes the potential for increased concentration in the paper and textile manufacturing sectors due to manufacturing efficiency, innovation capabilities, and environmental standards [6][7]. - The report identifies specific companies with growth potential, such as Pop Mart, which has a replicable IP incubation capability, and Morning Glory, which is undergoing a transformation [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The light industry manufacturing index decreased by 1.04%, ranking 16th among 28 industries, while the textile apparel index fell by 2.57%, ranking 26th [6][11]. - The report notes a mixed performance in sub-sectors, with packaging printing up by 1.45% and home goods down by 1.75% [11]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies like Sun Paper, Baiya Co., and Huali Group, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [4][6]. - Specific attention is drawn to the outdoor retail expansion of Li Ning, which is seen as a positive operational change [6][7]. Raw Material and Pricing Trends - The report tracks raw material prices, noting increases in MDI and TDI, while soft foam polyether prices have decreased. The prices of various paper products are also monitored, with packaging paper continuing to rise [19][44]. - The report highlights the rebound in broadleaf pulp prices and the overall positive trend in the paper sector, suggesting potential profitability improvements for companies like Sun Paper [7][44]. Export and Domestic Market Dynamics - The report discusses the recovery of exports, particularly in the furniture sector, with a noted increase in non-wood furniture exports from Vietnam to the U.S. [6][7]. - It also highlights the challenges in the domestic real estate market, with significant declines in property sales and construction activity [69][89].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant rise of the "Starry Person" IP within Pop Mart, showcasing its impact on revenue and customer engagement in the company's theme park operations [4][5][6]. Group 1: Starry Person IP Performance - The "Starry Person" character has become a major attraction at Pop Mart's city park, leading to an 80% increase in related merchandise sales following its introduction [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the total revenue from the Starry Person IP exceeded 390 million yuan, accounting for 2.8% of Pop Mart's total revenue for that period [4]. - Morgan Stanley's report predicts that by 2025, the Starry Person IP could represent 8% of Pop Mart's total revenue [4]. Group 2: Development and Strategy - The Starry Person IP was officially signed by Pop Mart in 2023, and within 10 months, it generated nearly 400 million yuan in revenue, marking it as one of the fastest-growing IPs post-pandemic [5]. - Unlike previous IPs that thrived primarily through toys, the Starry Person's growth has been significantly influenced by the offline theme park, which has become a new channel for IP development [5][6]. - Pop Mart's strategy includes customizing music, MV materials, and stage performances for the Starry Person, akin to idol culture, enhancing consumer interaction and emotional connection with the IP [6]. Group 3: Future Plans and Market Positioning - Pop Mart's theme park is viewed as a strategic direction for the company, with plans to expand to more cities and enhance the overall experience by focusing on adult aesthetics and storytelling [7][8]. - Data indicates that 59% of visitors to the Pop Mart theme park are non-family groups, and 57% are non-local tourists, prompting a shift in focus from solely family-oriented attractions to a broader audience [8]. - The success of the revamped theme park model could lead to increased investment in offline parks, incorporating more diverse offerings such as desserts, performances, and IP derivatives [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that emerging demand is leading the way, while traditional consumption is breaking through. The year 2026, as the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is expected to see continued implementation of consumption stimulus policies, effectively releasing residents' consumption willingness and promoting a steady recovery in consumption demand [4][11] - The report suggests that the traditional consumption industry is likely to experience a rebound, while new demands such as "new products, new channels, and new business formats" will continue to drive the rapid development of new consumption [4][11] - The report highlights the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes the need to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [11][12] Group 2 - In the textile and media sectors, new demand is leading to new supply, and new supply is creating new demand. The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in three segments: outdoor sports, gold jewelry, and cultural and trendy IP in 2026 [4][30] - The outdoor sports segment is identified as a growing trend, with social aspects becoming increasingly important for young consumers. The report notes that outdoor activities such as cycling, hiking, and climbing are gaining popularity [32][33] - The gold jewelry market is expected to see continued growth in consumer spending, with a positive outlook for retail sales in 2026. The report suggests focusing on leading gold jewelry brands [32][33] Group 3 - The social services sector is evolving, with a focus on leading companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand. The report indicates that tourism and beauty industries are experiencing changes, with a shift towards rational consumption and a focus on value for money [4][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize, with signs of recovery emerging. The report notes that the industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and consumer income expectations [4][30] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are experiencing a cyclical upturn, particularly in the pig farming segment, which is expected to stabilize due to policy-driven transformations [4][5] Group 4 - The home appliance industry is characterized by resilience in demand, with policies such as "trade-in for new" supporting consumption. The report suggests looking for structural highlights within the home appliance sector, particularly in high-dividend white goods and rapidly growing new consumption categories [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new consumption trends and adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic recovery [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry rating but emphasizes a positive outlook for the food and beverage sector based on the central economic work conference's focus on domestic demand and consumption opportunities [5][6]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand, aiming to boost consumption through various initiatives, including income distribution reforms and the removal of unreasonable consumption restrictions, which is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector [6][7]. - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry could see structural opportunities in 2026, driven by high-growth companies and favorable policy directions [7]. Sub-industry Ratings - No specific ratings are provided for sub-industries such as liquor, beverages, and food [3]. - Recommended companies include: - Guizhou Moutai: Buy - Shanxi Fenjiu: Hold - Guming: Buy - Mixue Group: Hold - Ximai Food: Buy - Dongpeng Beverage: Buy - Wancheng Group: Buy - Pop Mart: Buy - Yanjing Beer: Hold - Dashihua: Buy [3][11]. Recommended Companies and Earnings Forecast - The report includes earnings forecasts for recommended companies, indicating expected growth in EPS from 2024 to 2027 for each company, with Guizhou Moutai projected to have an EPS of 80.79 in 2027 [11].

Core Insights - Pop Mart has appointed Wu Yue, the President of LVMH Greater China, as a new non-executive director, effective December 10, signaling the company's intent to strengthen its presence in the luxury market [1][2] Group 1: Leadership and Strategy - Wu Yue brings over 20 years of experience from LVMH, which will aid Pop Mart in talent acquisition, fashion jewelry, and global store location strategies [2] - The company is offering a competitive compensation package of HKD 1.2 million in cash and HKD 1.8 million in stock-based remuneration to attract Wu Yue, indicating a commitment to a mutually beneficial relationship [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the MEGA COLLECTION series is expected to generate over CNY 1 billion in revenue, accounting for 7.3% of total revenue [3] - In the first half of the year, Pop Mart reported revenue of CNY 13.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 204.4%, with adjusted net profit rising 362.8% to CNY 4.71 billion and a gross margin of 70.3% [3] Group 3: Market Expansion - Pop Mart's international strategy has shown significant growth, with revenue from the Asia-Pacific region increasing by 257.8% to CNY 2.85 billion, and revenue from the Americas soaring by 1142.3% to CNY 2.26 billion [4] - The company anticipates strong sales growth in the fourth quarter due to seasonal demand from Halloween, Black Friday, and Christmas, particularly in the overseas markets [5]

近日，铜质工艺品龙头杭州铜师傅文创（集团）股份有限公司（以下简称"铜师傅"） 再度递表港交 所。 中经记者 黎竹 孙吉正 北京报道 公开资料显示，铜师傅的主要消费人群为30岁至55岁的男性，因此也被业内称为"中年男人的泡泡玛 特"，其上市动作颇受市场关注。根据最新招股书，铜师傅目前的年营收体量超5亿元，铜质财神、关 公、葫芦等铜质文创产品为其产品矩阵中的核心品类，其中，自有IP产品的营收占总收入的九成左右。 业内专家认为，当前资本对金铜工艺品领域的关注，主要是因为该市场在国内或将迎来规模化发展，具 备高成长潜力。艾媒咨询CEO兼首席分析师张毅表示："由于这个市场目前仍相对空白，处于起步阶 段，最近几年还是会有比较大的发展空间；但铜师傅的价格和生产成本偏高，年轻消费群体的面相对 窄，因此天花板也会相对低一些。" 工艺品龙头上市路艰 铜师傅的资本市场之路并不顺利，四年间辗转两大交易所。 据公开资料，铜师傅曾在2022年启动A股创业板上市辅导，后在2024年终止。今年5月，铜师傅首次在 港交所递交招股书，招股书失效后，铜师傅于近期再度递表。对于此前没有成功上市的原因，截至发 稿，铜师傅方面暂未回应。 然而，晶捷品牌 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：上市之家 请来LV总裁，泡泡玛特的投资者们，似乎并不买账。 12月10日，潮玩巨头泡泡玛特（09992.HK）发布董事会人事调整公告，宣布LVMH大中华区总裁吴越 获任非执行董事，任期三年，而黑蚁资本管理合伙人何愚因工作安排辞任。公告披露，吴越将获每年 120万港元固定现金薪酬及180万港元股份基础薪酬，合计300万港元的年薪规模引发市场关注。 然而，这场被外界视为"奢侈品基因注入潮玩赛道"的重磅委任，并未获得投资者积极响应。12月11日， 泡泡玛特股价微涨1.58%；12月12日收涨0.36%，收盘价维持在190港元区间。相较于8月历史高点，公 司股价累计跌幅已超40%，市值蒸发逾2500亿港元，市场情绪与高管委任的热度形成鲜明反差。 现年69岁的吴越堪称中国奢侈品行业"元老级人物"。公开履历显示，他1993年加入LVMH集团，成为该 集团首位华裔高管，一手搭建Dior香水化妆品中国业务体系；2005年重返LVMH担任大中华区总裁后， 带领旗下70余个奢侈品牌完成在中国市场的规模化扩张，见证并推动了奢侈品在中国的消费升级浪潮。 ...

近日，《疯狂动物城2》不仅凭借超30亿元的票房创下中国影史进口动画片票房纪录，也引爆了各种IP 衍生的周边消费市场。根据得物App数据显示，"疯狂动物城"上映首日关键词搜索量环比前一天增长 60%，联名盲盒、"痛金"、家居等产品备受消费者追捧。 疯狂动物城联名手办"再续系列"隐藏款"芬尼克"价格趋势图 值得一提的是，《疯狂动物城2》最贵的联名当属周大福的"痛金"，本次周大福推出了4个系列产品，朱 迪联名款胡萝卜黄金吊坠售价3275元，周大福尼克朱迪联名款转运珠售价2575元，刷新了联名价格上 限。同时，泡泡玛特成为最大赢家，推出的多款联名产品，包括盲盒手办、可动人偶、钥匙扣等，其中 MOLLY与《疯狂动物城2》的联名系列盲盒手办隐藏款"芬尼克小推车"在得物App成交价由69元增长至 247元，最高溢价3.5倍；联名手办"再续系列"隐藏款"芬尼克"成交价由69元增长至291元，最高溢价4.2 倍。 《疯狂动物城2》主角朱迪和尼克作为新一代流量明星不止吸引了消费者，更吸引了一大波品牌的入 局，纷纷推出了联名周边产品。得物App数据显示，迪斯尼推出《疯狂动物城》联名保温杯，已狂卖2.6 万份，有5.5万用户"想要" ...

除此之外，"星星人""哭娃"等IP在二手市场也出现了不同程度的涨价。 不过，随着泡泡玛特产能的扩大，部分IP的热度正在降温，毕竟物以稀为贵。今年8月，泡泡玛特 供应链中心总裁袁俊杰表示，以毛绒玩具为例，现在一个月的产能是去年同期的十倍以上，现在是3000 万只左右。目前还处于"追产能"的阶段。 近日，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）股价持续下跌，12月8日股价跌超8%，12月9日跌超5%。自今年8月 高点339.8港元/股以来，其累计跌幅约40%，总市值蒸发超过2000亿港元（约合人民币1800亿元）。 在此前的17个月内（2024年3月-2025年8月），泡泡玛特的股价翻了接近15倍，创下了港股消费股 的神话。 在股价一路高歌猛进的时间段里，泡泡玛特的业绩也在逐步上涨。2024年上半年，泡泡玛特的净利 润为9.2亿元，2024年全年则斩获了31.3亿元的净利润。进入2025年，单是上半年泡泡玛特就赚了45.7亿 元。 股价的暴增一定程度上与泡泡玛特旗下的头部IP——LABUBU爆火有关。虽然LABUBU诞生于 2015年，但直至2025年，这个有着九颗牙齿和尖尖长耳朵的形象才成为"流量密码"。 随着一些外国明星 ...