Summary of Pop Mart International Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Group - **Industry**: Art Toy Culture and Retail - **Listing**: Listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange in December 2020 - **Key IPs**: Labubu, Molly, Skullpanda, Crybaby, Dimoo - **Retail Presence**: Operates 401 stores in mainland China and 120 stores outside mainland China as of end-2024 [10][10] Key Points from the Conference Call Product Strategy - **Sales Performance**: Sales this year have significantly exceeded expectations, but management is focused on long-term development [2][2] - **Internal Optimization**: Management is addressing weaknesses from rapid growth by optimizing organizational structure, channel operations, IP management, and supply chain capabilities [2][2] - **New Product Launches**: Q4 is the peak season, with new product series for top IPs planned for gradual weekly releases. However, the launch of Labubu 4.0 has been postponed to next year due to challenges from its popularity [2][2][2] Marketing and Capital Allocation - **Experiential Marketing**: The company is enhancing IP influence through flagship stores and immersive marketing strategies, such as character performances at theme parks and events like Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade [3][3] - **Interactive Engagement**: Future marketing will explore more interactive forms of IP engagement to enhance consumer experience [3][3] Supply Chain Management - **Supply Chain Optimization**: The supply chain has been optimized to a high level, but management aims to improve delivery speed through enhanced logistics and local warehousing [4][4] - **Demand Forecasting**: Sales data will inform more accurate demand forecasting, and marketing plans will be prepared earlier for key festivals [4][4] Financial Projections and Valuation - **Price Target**: The updated price target is HK$380.0, down from HK$435 due to higher beta assumptions [5][5] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenues are expected to grow from Rmb4,617 million in 2022 to Rmb86,042 million by 2029 [6][6] - **Profitability Metrics**: EBIT margin is projected to increase from 14.8% in 2022 to 46.1% by 2029, with net earnings expected to rise from Rmb573 million to Rmb30,693 million over the same period [6][6] Risks and Challenges - **Industry Risks**: Key risks include a slowdown in China's economy, increased competition from internet firms, regulatory scrutiny of the blind box format, and fashion risk in existing IPs [11][11] - **Company-Specific Risks**: Risks include failure to attract consumers with new IPs, challenges in expanding into low-tier cities, and profitability pressures from investments in new initiatives [12][12] Market Metrics - **Current Stock Price**: HK$224.80 as of November 28, 2025 - **Market Capitalization**: HK$302 billion (approximately US$38.8 billion) [7][7] - **Forecast Stock Return**: Expected price appreciation of 69.0% and a dividend yield of 2.1%, leading to a total forecast stock return of 71.1% [9][9] Conclusion Pop Mart International Group is positioned for significant growth in the art toy market, with a strong focus on optimizing internal capabilities and enhancing consumer engagement through innovative marketing strategies. However, the company faces various risks that could impact its long-term success.

年内A股在科技板块的提振下开启了迈向4000点的征程，但亦有部分板块未能搭上车。 多只重仓消费股的基金净值迄今为止遗憾告负，在传统消费持续不景气的背景下，部分高位加仓新消费的基金 也在个股的回撤中折损净值。 多名基金经理认为，"旧消费"在经历了长达四年的回撤后，估值已回归合理区间；新消费面临的则是高景气 度与高估值并存的现状。此外，在个股遴选中，部分基金经理提及"出海"这一关键词，并认为国产消费品牌 在国际竞争中潜力巨大，海外营收若能放量，对应当前估值水平有不少增长空间。 多只消费主题基金"躲牛市" 年内的科技牛市中，五年前的"核心资产"多数缺席，白酒、家电以及银行等板块多数涨幅有限，其中消费类 个股更是表现平平。据Wind数据，年初至今"酒类指数"跌幅超过6%，"零售指数"跌超2%，成为为数不多的 下跌板块。 因此，在多只科技股催生的"翻倍基"榜单中，还有部分消费主题产品跌幅超过10%，占据跌幅靠前位置。 以 华东某公募旗下消费主题基金 为例，上半年的两个季度内，该基金重仓股中包括了贵州茅台、五粮液和美 的集团等传统消费股，上半年跌幅达17%，下半年虽转向了消费电子但依旧走势一般。 "旧消费"不景气的同时， ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of entrepreneurs from Henan province signifies a shift in China's consumption landscape, showcasing that success is achievable through grounded, practical approaches rather than traditional elite backgrounds [1][11]. Group 1: Entrepreneurs from Henan - Yu Donglai, founder of a retail chain, offers employees 150 to 180 days of annual leave with an average salary of 8,000, demonstrating a commitment to employee satisfaction that translates into business success, with annual sales nearing 17 billion [5][11]. - Zhang Hongchao and Zhang Hongfu, founders of Mixue Ice City, disrupted the beverage market by significantly lowering prices, establishing their brand as the world's largest restaurant chain by store count, surpassing even global giants like KFC and McDonald's [7][11]. - Wang Ning, founder of Pop Mart, capitalizes on emotional pricing, transforming toys into luxury items for young consumers, and has achieved a personal net worth surpassing that of prominent figures like Jack Ma [9][11]. Group 2: Economic and Social Context - Henan, with a population exceeding 100 million and a significant labor force, has historically faced economic challenges, including a stark wealth gap and limited educational opportunities, yet is now positioned to leverage its demographic advantages in the new economic landscape [3][11]. - The shift from an export-driven economy to a domestic consumption-focused model has allowed Henan to emerge as a key player, with its large population now serving as both a consumer base and a labor reserve [11][15]. - The character and mindset of Henan entrepreneurs, characterized by practicality and resilience, contrast with traditional business narratives, emphasizing a focus on supply chain efficiency and grounded business practices [13][17]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The rise of Henan entrepreneurs reflects a structural change in China's economy, moving towards a decentralized and diversified consumption model, challenging previous stereotypes associated with the region [15][19]. - The success stories from Henan illustrate that future consumption trends may prioritize accessibility, cost-effectiveness, and emotional connection over high-tech solutions, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [17][19]. - The emergence of Henan as a business hub symbolizes a broader transformation in Chinese commercial civilization, suggesting that growth can originate from traditionally overlooked areas [19].

Market Overview - Major blue-chip stocks mostly declined, with HSBC Holdings closing at HKD 110.541, down 0.41% from the previous close; Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 608.677, down 0.22% [2] Stock Performance Summary - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 610.000, down HKD 2.000 (-0.33%); ADR price HKD 608.677, down HKD 1.323 [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 111.000, down HKD 0.500 (-0.45%); ADR price HKD 110.541, down HKD 0.459 [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 155.000, up HKD 0.600 (0.39%); ADR price HKD 154.057, down HKD 0.943 [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 78.300, down HKD 0.700 (-0.89%); ADR price HKD 78.371, up HKD 0.071 [3] - Meituan: Latest price HKD 99.050, up HKD 0.950 (0.97%); ADR price HKD 98.981, down HKD 0.069 [3] - Ping An Insurance: Latest price HKD 60.450, up HKD 3.800 (6.71%); ADR price HKD 60.370, down HKD 0.080 [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 99.150, up HKD 0.750 (0.76%); ADR price HKD 98.086, down HKD 1.064 [3]

Group 1 - The potential for national income doubling is expected to open a "golden decade" for new consumption development, with a theoretical target of nearly doubling per capita GDP by 2035, from $13,300 in 2024 to approximately $20,000 [16][17][33] - The growth of the middle-income group is crucial for driving consumption, with a target of over 800 million middle-income individuals in the next 15 years, which will significantly influence the scale and quality of domestic consumption [42][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting common prosperity to activate domestic consumption potential, highlighting that increasing the income of low-income groups can effectively convert new income into consumption [20][23][49] Group 2 - The beauty and personal care sector is expected to see growth driven by new materials in the medical beauty segment, with companies like Lepu Medical focusing on innovative materials that fill market gaps [4][5][15] - The beauty industry is entering a low-growth phase, where brand group operations and market share enhancement will be critical for sustainable growth, with companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei Holdings being highlighted for their potential [4][5][15] - The pet care market is experiencing both consumption upgrades and intensified competition, with a focus on high-end, health-oriented products [4][5][15] Group 3 - The service consumption sector, particularly tourism and sports, is expected to benefit from policy encouragement, with companies like Sanxia Tourism and Lansi Co. being recommended for investment [4][5][15] - The report notes that the tourism sector is poised for growth due to increased interest in flexible vacations and the aging population, which is expected to drive demand for river cruises [4][5][15] - The sports service sector is highlighted as a core growth area, with event-driven economic activities expected to boost related industries [4][5][15] Group 4 - The IP and trendy toy market is entering a new phase with a surge in supply, and companies like Pop Mart are expected to maintain their leading positions through effective IP management [4][5][15] - The report indicates that the emergence of new designers and retail platforms is likely to sustain high demand for IP products, with a focus on companies that can effectively monetize potential IP [4][5][15] Group 5 - The gold and jewelry sector is facing short-term demand pressure due to tax reforms and seasonal fluctuations, with a focus on brands that can maintain pricing power amid these changes [5][15]

Core Viewpoint - The IPO of "Yujian Xiaomian," known as the "first stock of Chinese noodle restaurants," faced a disappointing debut on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opening significantly lower than its issue price, reflecting investor skepticism about the sustainability of rapid expansion in the restaurant sector [3][9]. Company Overview - Yujian Xiaomian officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 5, with the stock code "09992.HK" [3][9]. - The company, founded in 2014 and headquartered in Guangzhou, focuses on Chongqing noodles and operates a dual model of direct sales and franchising [11]. IPO Performance - The stock opened at 5 HKD, a drop of nearly 29% from the issue price of 7.04 HKD, and closed at 5.12 HKD, marking a total decline of 27.27% with a market capitalization of 36.39 billion HKD [3][9]. - The IPO raised approximately 617 million HKD, with the Hong Kong public offering being oversubscribed by 425.97 times and the international offering by 4.99 times [10][12]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 418 million CNY in 2022 to 1.154 billion CNY in 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 66.2% [6][12]. - The company turned a profit in 2023, with a projected profit of 60.7 million CNY in 2024, and reported a revenue of 703 million CNY in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33% [6][12]. Market Position and Strategy - Yujian Xiaomian has established 465 stores across 22 cities and Hong Kong, with plans to open 150 to 230 new stores annually from 2026 to 2028, including an expansion into Singapore [11][12]. - The Chinese fast-food market is nearing 300 billion CNY, with a focus on standardization and digitalization as key drivers for brand expansion [12].

Core Insights - The opening of POP MART's largest flagship store in Shanghai marks a significant expansion in the brand's presence, featuring a diverse IP-themed space and immersive experiences [1][5] - The store aims to create a "潮玩宇宙" (trendy toy universe) that caters to both seasoned collectors and newcomers, showcasing over 100 popular IP series and nearly 10,000 collectible items [5] Store Design and Experience - The store features an eye-catching entrance with dual-column IP art installations, enhancing the interactive experience and attracting visitors [6] - The second floor offers themed immersive scenes that provide a rich experience, quickly becoming a trending topic on social media [6] DIY Experience and Consumer Engagement - Unlike other stores that offer temporary DIY experiences, this flagship location features a permanent DIY workspace, allowing customers to create personalized collectibles, enhancing both emotional and collectible value [8] - The launch of this DIY experience has led to long queues of consumers eager to participate [8] Special Opening Events - From November 29 to December 3, the store will host special opening activities, including a limited edition commemorative coin vending machine themed around Shanghai [10] Strategic Location and Market Positioning - The store is strategically located in the core commercial area of Nanjing Road, reinforcing its position as a trendy hub [5][11] - The Shanghai Shimao Plaza, where the store is located, is designed as a "city theater," creating a dual-track model that combines "East District subculture economy" with "West District international trends" [11] Future Developments in the Area - The East District is accelerating the introduction of new subculture businesses, with upcoming openings of Youku Shopping and My Dream World, which will cater to fans of film and K-pop culture respectively [13] - The West District continues to enhance its high-end lifestyle offerings, featuring flagship stores from international brands like NIKE and LEGO, creating a complementary lifestyle circle [15] Transformation of Traditional Commercial Areas - Shanghai Shimao Plaza is redefining traditional commercial spaces by incorporating IP-driven events and first-store economies, enhancing its appeal to younger demographics [16] - This operational model of aggregating traffic through IP, enhancing experiences through scenes, and converting through diverse offerings serves as a replicable model for transforming traditional commercial districts nationwide [16]

Group 1 - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 72.75%, Green Power Environmental (01330) at 69.12%, and Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at 68.59% [1][2] - Alibaba-W (09988), Meituan-W (03690), and Pop Mart (09992) saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +3.691 billion, +1.948 billion, and +1.239 billion respectively [1][2] - The companies with the largest decreases in holding amounts over the last five trading days include Zijin Mining (02899) with a decrease of -1.162 billion, SMIC (00981) with -0.924 billion, and China Mobile (00941) with -0.458 billion [1][3] Group 2 - The latest holding ratios for the top 20 companies in Hong Kong Stock Connect show that China Telecom has 10.096 billion shares, Green Power Environmental has 0.280 billion shares, and Haotian International Construction Investment has 7.440 billion shares [2] - The top 10 companies with the largest increases in holdings over the last five trading days include ZTE Corporation (00763) with +0.860 billion, China Merchants Bank (03968) with +0.809 billion, and UBTECH (09880) with +0.557 billion [2] - The top 10 companies with the largest decreases in holdings over the last five trading days include China Construction Bank (00939) with -0.452 billion, Southern Hengtong Technology (03033) with -0.445 billion, and Lenovo Group (00992) with -0.403 billion [3]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the growing significance of IP (Intellectual Property) in the潮玩 (trendy toys) market, highlighting its appeal to adults and the emotional connection it fosters, driven by rising consumer spending and cultural consumption upgrades [1][2]. Group 1: Definition and Development - "IP潮玩" refers to trendy toys with high recognition and independent IP attributes, primarily targeting adults rather than children, focusing on artistic value and collectability [2]. - The潮玩 industry has evolved from its inception in the late 1990s to a mature phase, with significant growth driven by local designers and the emergence of original IPs [3]. Group 2: Industry Chain and Market Size - The IP潮玩 industry chain consists of upstream IP sources, midstream IP operation and production, and downstream sales channels, with some companies managing the entire chain for better control [5]. - The Chinese IP潮玩 market is projected to reach approximately 678 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of about 13.8% from 2020 to 2024, and is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2027 [6]. Group 3: Key Players - 泡泡玛特 has transformed from a trendy retail brand to a leader in IP commercialization, achieving significant growth through innovative product offerings and strategic expansions despite regulatory challenges [9][11]. - 万代南梦宫 has evolved from a toy wholesaler to a global entertainment giant, implementing an "IP axis strategy" to maximize IP value across various media [14][16]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior and Trends - The majority of consumers frequently purchase盲盒 (blind boxes) and手办 (figurines), with motivations centered around collection and stress relief, indicating a strong emotional connection to specific IPs [30]. - Social media platforms have become the primary source for consumers to obtain information about潮玩, with immersive unboxing videos and brand collaborations driving purchase decisions [33]. Group 5: Global Expansion and Digital Trends - The overseas market presents new growth opportunities for Chinese潮玩 brands, with varying challenges across regions like North America, Japan, and Southeast Asia [36]. - Digital潮玩, supported by blockchain technology and the rise of virtual identities, faces both opportunities and challenges, necessitating a balance between innovation and compliance for long-term value [38].

潮流性消费商业特点是产品火爆与否很难预测，火爆持续的时 间又通常很短。这种性质的生意适合怎样的经营逻辑？有没有 办法提高爆款出现的概率？如何尽量延长一款IP的生命周期？ 作者： 王高 张锐 封图：东方IC 在2025年的消费图景中，潮流性消费格外引人注目：泡泡玛特（POP MART）旗下LABUBU潮 玩引发全球抢购狂潮，线上店全线产品补货秒空，99元的盲盒在二手市场的溢价可以达10倍以 上。一款高131cm的薄荷色初代LABUBU潮玩，在拍卖会上卖出108万元的高价。 潮流性消费商业特点是产品火爆与否很难预测，火爆持续的时间又通常很短。这种性质的生意适合 怎样的经营逻辑？有没有办法提高爆款出现的概率？如何尽量延长一款IP的生命周期？ 值得注意的是，潮流性生意的核心特性和痛点是需求的不确定性和不可持续性，这都决定了这种生 意的关键运营逻辑：在产品走红后，最大化"榨取"流行价值。这与经典品牌营销范式中"保护品 牌，避免过度开发"的思路截然不同。潮流性品牌的经营逻辑未必适用于传统品牌的经营。 泡泡玛特的潮流生意 潮流玩具简称潮玩，又称艺术玩具（Art Toy）或设计师玩具（Designer Toy），是一种基于特 ...