Summary of Pop Mart International Limited Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart International Limited - **Ticker**: 9992.HK - **Rating**: Underperform - **Price Target**: 225.00 HKD - **Market Cap**: 293,836 million HKD - **Annual Dividend Yield**: 0.4% Key Industry Insights - **Customer Base**: Approximately 59 million reported members, with divided investor perspectives on sustainability - **Survey Sample**: ~850 respondents across China to analyze purchasing behavior and engagement Core Findings 1. **Customer Engagement**: - The customer base shows shallow engagement, with 39% of respondents starting purchases within the past year and only 12% having purchased for over two years, indicating minimal sustainable collector development [1][15][16] 2. **Buyer Segmentation**: - Casual and impulse buyers represent 68% of the customer base, while collectors account for only ~6% [2][18] - 60% of respondents own fewer than 5 items, and 80% own under 11 items, confirming that Pop Mart functions as occasional discretionary spending rather than routine purchases [2][18] 3. **Acquisition and Portfolio Risk**: - LABUBU drives 38% of customer acquisition, indicating a heavy reliance on a single character, which poses a risk if its popularity declines [3][19][78] - 29% of respondents never purchased other IPs, suggesting vulnerability to abandonment if LABUBU's appeal wanes [3][19] 4. **Spending Intentions**: - 61% of respondents expect to increase spending, but 26% plan to decrease, with 13% intending to stop purchasing entirely within 12 months [11][23][100] - Growth expectations are modest, with 47% projecting a 10-20% increase, indicating reliance on Pop Mart's execution of new releases [11][23][100] 5. **Scarcity Strategy**: - 18% abandon purchases when items are unavailable, while 45% substitute within the ecosystem, indicating a reliance on cross-IP substitution rather than developing multi-IP preferences [12][24][118] - The blind box format retains 65% positive sentiment, but many find it "fun but frustrating," suggesting a need for improvement in customer experience [12][24] Financial Metrics - **Reported EPS**: - F24A: 2.36 RMB - F25E: 7.91 RMB - F26E: 10.21 RMB - **EPS Growth**: - F24A: 191.4% - F25E: 235.1% - F26E: 29.1% [8] Purchase Behavior Insights 1. **Purchase Frequency**: - 21% of respondents have made only a single purchase, indicating low habitual purchasing [56][58] - Only 16.55% purchase monthly or more frequently, suggesting limited engagement [56][58] 2. **Annual Spending**: - 68.80% of customers spend less than ¥500 annually, translating to around 6-7 items yearly [61][65] - This aligns with low ownership levels and infrequent purchases, indicating shallow customer engagement [61][65] 3. **Influence of Channels**: - In-store browsing (64.18%) and social media content (54.96%) are the top drivers for purchasing decisions, highlighting the importance of product discovery [68][71] Future Considerations - **Churn Risk**: The data suggests Pop Mart operates with a "leaky bucket," requiring continuous new customer acquisition to offset attrition [100][101] - **Product Development**: Success hinges on the ability to innovate and maintain a strong IP pipeline to drive customer engagement and spending [106][107] Conclusion - Pop Mart's current customer base is characterized by shallow engagement and a heavy reliance on a single IP, LABUBU. The company faces significant challenges in converting casual buyers into committed collectors and must focus on product innovation and customer retention strategies to ensure sustainable growth.

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are China Telecom (00728) at 72.68%, Green Power Environmental (01330) at 69.12%, and Da Zhong Public Utilities (01635) at 69.03% [1] - Alibaba-W (09988), Meituan-W (03690), and Pop Mart (09992) saw the largest increases in holding amounts over the last five trading days, with increases of +3.329 billion, +1.319 billion, and +1.060 billion respectively [1] - The largest decreases in holding amounts were observed in Zijin Mining (02899) at -861 million, SMIC (00981) at -815 million, and Lenovo Group (00992) at -430 million [1][2] Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - China Telecom (00728): 100.87 billion shares, 72.68% holding ratio [1] - Green Power Environmental (01330): 2.80 billion shares, 69.12% holding ratio [1] - Da Zhong Public Utilities (01635): 3.68 billion shares, 69.03% holding ratio [1] - Other notable companies include Haotian International Construction Investment (01341) at 68.75% and China Shenhua (01088) at 67.00% [1] Recent Increases in Holdings (Last 5 Trading Days) - Alibaba-W (09988): +3.329 billion, +21.6752 million shares [1] - Meituan-W (03690): +1.319 billion, +13.7526 million shares [1] - Pop Mart (09992): +1.060 billion, +4.9058 million shares [1] - Other companies with significant increases include ZTE Corporation (00763) and China Merchants Bank (03968) [2] Recent Decreases in Holdings (Last 5 Trading Days) - Zijin Mining (02899): -861 million, -26.2640 million shares [2] - SMIC (00981): -815 million, -12.1252 million shares [2] - Lenovo Group (00992): -430 million, -43.6821 million shares [2] - Other companies with notable decreases include China Mobile (00941) and China Pacific Insurance (02328) [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the light industry manufacturing sector is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The global IP toy market is projected to reach 525.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.7%, and is expected to grow to 771.7 billion yuan by 2029 [3][12] - The Chinese IP toy market is anticipated to reach 75.6 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a year-on-year rate of 29.2%, and is expected to reach 167.5 billion yuan by 2029 [3][13] - Generation Z is becoming the main consumer group, accounting for over 70% of the market, driven by emotional attachment, social needs, and companionship attributes [3][18] - The core competitiveness of the trendy toy industry lies in IP, with the highest cumulative revenue IP, Pokémon, reaching 98.9 billion USD [3][29] - The industry is witnessing a diversification of competition, with domestic IP gradually rising, and the market is still in a rapid development phase [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Expansion and Consumer Demographics - The trendy toy market is expanding, with Generation Z becoming the primary consumer group [3][12] - The market structure is becoming more balanced, with static and movable dolls experiencing the fastest growth [3][13] 2. Value Transformation and Industry Trends - Leading IPs are enriching their cultural content through various media, creating a cross-media IP content ecosystem [3][4] - Companies are actively expanding their IP value transformation paths, achieving multi-category expansion and full ecosystem construction [3][4] 3. Full Industry Chain Coverage - The trend indicates that trendy toy companies are evolving from single-point breakthroughs to full industry chain layouts [3][4] - Companies like Disney and LEGO have achieved full chain layouts, while others are still working on their weaknesses [3][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with full industry chain layouts such as Pop Mart, and those transforming retail into IP like Miniso and Morning Glory [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) has experienced significant growth in both share volume and fund size in 2023, despite a recent decline in market performance [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of December 2, 2023, the Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) has a total share volume of 926 million and a total fund size of 779 million yuan, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 140.06% in share volume and 198.09% in fund size compared to the end of 2022 [1]. - The fund's management fee is set at 0.50% annually, while the custody fee is 0.10% annually [1]. - The fund manager, Li Yixuan, has managed the ETF since its inception on May 25, 2021, with a performance return of -15.87% during the management period [1]. Group 2: Trading Activity - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (159735) recorded a total trading volume of 1.143 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days, averaging 57.17 million yuan per day [1]. - Year-to-date, the ETF has accumulated a total trading volume of 22.285 billion yuan over 223 trading days, with an average daily trading volume of 99.93 million yuan [1]. Group 3: Top Holdings - The ETF's top holdings include Alibaba-W (19.54%), Tencent Holdings (16.59%), and Pop Mart (7.99%), among others, with their respective market values and share counts detailed [2]. - The fund's significant positions reflect a diversified exposure to major players in the Hong Kong consumer market, indicating a strategic focus on high-growth companies [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from交银国际 indicates that the mainland consumer market is expected to continue a moderate growth trend towards 2026, with slow overall demand growth but structural differentiation driven by rational consumption and demand upgrading [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The consumer market is undergoing a multi-dimensional transformation, evolving to be more consumer-centric [1] - There is a gradual construction of a new balance in the market, focusing on consumer demand and emphasizing operational efficiency improvements [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy in the consumer sector, combining defensive sectors with stable cash flow and resilient demand as a foundation, while also actively seeking high-growth structural opportunities [1] - Close attention should be paid to new consumption trends and the potential for industry reshaping brought about by technological changes [1] Group 3: Focus Areas - Three categories of companies are highlighted for investment focus: 1. Companies benefiting from supply-demand improvements and expected to release profit elasticity through efficiency gains, such as申洲国际 and伊利 [1] 2. Segment leaders that are quick to capture consumption trends and have rapid growth potential, such as泡泡玛特 and名创优品 [1] 3. Industry leaders with solid growth foundations, strong moats, and cyclical resilience, such as安踏 and华润啤酒 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company Copper Master is attempting a second listing in Hong Kong after its initial prospectus failed, capitalizing on the recovering sentiment in the Hong Kong consumer stock market [2][13]. Group 1: Business Performance - Copper Master has seen its revenue growth slow to single digits, with profits also declining, contrasting sharply with competitors like Pop Mart, which reported over 200% revenue growth and nearly 400% net profit growth [3][19]. - In the first half of 2025, Copper Master reported a main business revenue of 308 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of less than 10%, while net profit fell from 39.76 million yuan in the first half of 2024 to 30.24 million yuan [19][22]. - The average transaction price for Copper Master has significantly decreased, with online prices dropping from 958 yuan to 556 yuan and offline prices from 1918 yuan to 659 yuan from 2022 to the first half of 2025 [22]. Group 2: Market Positioning - Copper Master is often labeled as "the Pop Mart for middle-aged people," but this comparison is superficial as the two companies operate under fundamentally different business models [4][15]. - While Pop Mart focuses on emotional value and IP-driven products, Copper Master emphasizes tangible copper craftsmanship, leading to a lower gross margin of around 35% compared to Pop Mart's gross margin of approximately 70% [16][18]. - The target demographic for Copper Master includes middle-aged consumers who prioritize functional value and social status over emotional appeal, contrasting with the younger audience of Pop Mart [18][29]. Group 3: Growth Challenges - The company faces significant challenges in proving its growth potential, especially as it approaches its IPO, with concerns about its ability to meet investor expectations [21][25]. - Rising copper prices pose a threat to Copper Master's profit margins, as the company relies on raw material costs that are subject to market fluctuations [23][24]. - Copper Master is attempting to diversify its product offerings and target demographics by expanding into plastic and other materials, as well as collaborating with popular IPs to attract younger consumers [26][28]. Group 4: International Expansion - The company is exploring international markets, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and the United States, to leverage the appeal of Eastern aesthetics and craftsmanship [32][33]. - However, establishing a presence in overseas markets requires significant time and investment in brand education and channel development, making immediate financial returns unlikely [33].

Core Insights - The article highlights the booming trend of trendy consumption, particularly focusing on the success of Pop Mart's LABUBU toys, which have seen global demand and significant price appreciation in the secondary market [2][3][4] - The nature of trendy consumption is characterized by unpredictable demand and short-lived popularity, necessitating a different operational logic compared to traditional brand marketing [2][11][23] Group 1: Trendy Consumption Characteristics - Trendy toys, or "Art Toys," originated in the late 1990s and are designed for adult collectors, distinguishing them from traditional children's toys [3][4] - Pop Mart transitioned from a general trendy goods retailer to a focused trendy toy company, leveraging industrialization to scale production and reach millions in sales [4][5] - The company has developed a closed-loop business model encompassing IP incubation, design, production, and sales, while continuously attracting influential artists [5][12] Group 2: Operational Strategies - Pop Mart's success is attributed to its ability to convert artistic creativity into marketable products, while also adhering to the operational logic of trendy brands to manage demand uncertainty [12][16] - The company employs a flexible, responsive business model that allows for rapid adjustments based on market feedback and consumer preferences [16][17] - Pop Mart has established a comprehensive sales system, including physical stores, online platforms, and social media engagement, to maximize product visibility and consumer interaction [18] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The demand for trendy products is highly unpredictable, often influenced by social trends and peer behavior, leading to a "winner-takes-all" market dynamic [8][23] - The company has successfully capitalized on the viral nature of trendy products, with significant sales spikes driven by social media exposure and celebrity endorsements [19][20] - Despite the potential for high sales, the transient nature of consumer interest necessitates continuous product innovation and brand refreshment to maintain relevance [22][24]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a slight recovery in consumption in 2025, with moderate growth expected to continue into 2026. The current consumer market is undergoing multi-dimensional changes, primarily shifting towards a consumer-centric approach. The key drivers of current consumption decisions are value for money and emotional value, which provide important directions for companies in product innovation and brand establishment [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company suggests adopting a balanced strategy focusing on three types of enterprises: - The first category includes companies benefiting from supply-demand improvements and expected to release profit elasticity through efficiency enhancements, such as Shenzhou International (02313), rated "Buy" [1]. - The second category consists of nimble companies that capture consumer trends and possess rapid growth potential, such as Pop Mart (09992) and Miniso (09896), both rated "Buy" [1]. - The third category includes industry leaders with a solid growth foundation, strong competitive advantages, and cyclical resilience, such as Anta Sports (02020) and China Resources Beer (00291), both rated "Buy" [1].

Key Points - The top three companies with net inflows from southbound funds are Alibaba-W (09988) with 1.093 billion, Pop Mart (09992) with 0.551 billion, and Xiaomi Group-W (01810) with 0.471 billion [1] - The top three companies with net outflows are Lenovo Group (00992) with -0.363 billion, Zijin Mining (02899) with -0.303 billion, and SMIC (00981) with -0.301 billion [1] - In terms of net inflow ratios, China National Freight (00598) leads with 76.27%, followed by CITIC International Telecom (01883) at 75.55%, and Shenzhen Expressway (00548) at 73.87% [1] - The companies with the highest net outflow ratios include 361 Degrees (01361) at -66.47%, Zhongyu Energy (03633) at -58.68%, and Andeli Juice (02218) at -55.47% [1] Top 10 Net Inflows - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net inflow of 1.093 billion, representing a 10.81% increase in closing price to 151.500 [2] - Pop Mart (09992) saw a net inflow of 0.551 billion, with a closing price increase of 2.84% to 224.800 [2] - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net inflow of 0.471 billion, with a slight decrease in closing price of 0.19% to 41.020 [2] Top 10 Net Outflows - Lenovo Group (00992) experienced a net outflow of -0.363 billion, with a closing price decrease of 0.92% to 9.680 [2] - Zijin Mining (02899) had a net outflow of -0.303 billion, maintaining a stable closing price of 30.700 [2] - SMIC (00981) faced a net outflow of -0.301 billion, with a closing price increase of 0.66% to 68.800 [2] Net Inflow Ratios - China National Freight (00598) achieved a net inflow ratio of 76.27% with a net inflow of 12.9113 million, closing at 5.200 [3] - CITIC International Telecom (01883) had a net inflow ratio of 75.55% with a net inflow of 6.5979 million, closing at 2.570 [3] - Shenzhen Expressway (00548) recorded a net inflow ratio of 73.87% with a net inflow of 4.1251 million, closing at 7.420 [3] Net Outflow Ratios - 361 Degrees (01361) had a net outflow ratio of -66.47% with a net outflow of -6.9484 million, closing at 6.000 [3] - Zhongyu Energy (03633) recorded a net outflow ratio of -58.68% with a net outflow of -3.0169 million, closing at 2.940 [3] - Andeli Juice (02218) faced a net outflow ratio of -55.47% with a net outflow of -1.0273 million, closing at 14.080 [3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,076.46, down by 18.59 points or 0.07% on March 10 [1] - The index reached a high of 26,088.08 and a low of 25,955.53 during the trading session, with a trading volume of 33.66 million [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings closed at HKD 112.111, up by 1% compared to the previous close [2] - Tencent Holdings closed at HKD 616.297, down by 0.11% compared to the previous close [2] Individual Stock Movements - Tencent Holdings: Latest price HKD 617.000, down by HKD 2.500 or 0.40% [3] - Alibaba Group: Latest price HKD 157.000, up by HKD 2.100 or 1.36% [3] - China Construction Bank: Latest price HKD 8.160, up by HKD 0.010 or 0.12% [3] - HSBC Holdings: Latest price HKD 111.000, up by HKD 0.500 or 0.45% [3] - Xiaomi Group: Latest price HKD 40.700, up by HKD 0.400 or 0.99% [3] - AIA Group: Latest price HKD 80.800, up by HKD 0.300 or 0.37% [3] - NetEase: Latest price HKD 224.400, up by HKD 2.000 or 0.90% [3] - BYD Company: Latest price HKD 100.100, up by HKD 2.150 or 2.19% [3] - Ctrip Group: Latest price HKD 543.000, down by HKD 1.000 or 0.18% [3] - JD Group: Latest price HKD 116.000, down by HKD 1.100 or 0.94% [3]