2025年11月24日15时，网易旗下武侠MMORPG《射雕》正式终止运营。这款曾高调宣示"150年长线运 营"愿景的游戏，从2024年3月28日公测至停服，仅存续545天。其生命周期与宏大口号形成的巨大反 差，不仅折射出网易在IP改编赛道的困境，更成为观察游戏行业"长线叙事"与"短期现实"冲突的典型样 本。 为挽救颓势，网易于2024年10月启动"回炉计划"，更换制作团队并重制2.0版本。新版本虽转向写实风 格、简化战斗系统，并推出"全额返利"活动，但最高仅冲至畅销榜第63名，未能逆转颓势。 最终，官方将停运归因于"与明河社IP合作到期"及"运营策略调整"，但业内普遍认为，收入不及预期才 是核心原因。 从"十亿投入"到"停运止损" 《射雕》项目启动时承载着网易的厚望。官方资料显示，游戏研发历时6年，投入资金约10亿元，由600 人团队打造，并获得金庸"射雕三部曲"正版授权。 公测初期，游戏凭借IP号召力与"非线性叙事+开放世界"的创新设定，首月MAU突破800万，付费率达 18.7%。 然而，短暂的辉煌后危机迅速显现：公测版本因美术风格幼态、移动端优化不足、战斗系统设计割裂等 问题遭遇口碑滑坡，上线一个月后 ...

我们统计了今年（截至11月15日）全球手游发行商在海外市场的收入表现并进行排名。 | 45 | NCSUFI | 리니시M、리니시W | 40000 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 24 | SciPlay | Jackpot Party | 40000 | | ડર | Modern Times Group | RAID: Shadow Legends | 36000 | | 26 | CyberAgent | Umamusume: Pretty Derby | 34000 | | 27 | Sony | Fate/Grand Order | 33000 | | 28 | 网易 | 荒野行动、第五人格 | 31000 | | 29 | FunPlus | State of Survival, DC: Dark Legion | 31000 | | 30 | 三七互娱 | Puzzles & Survival | 31000 | | 31 | 海彼 | Archero 2. Capybara Go! | 29000 | | 32 | River Game | Top Heroes, ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a significant recovery on November 24, with all three major indices ending a streak of declines[9] - Large tech stocks performed strongly, with Kuaishou rising over 7%, and NetEase and Bilibili increasing over 5%[9] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,546, up 2.78% for the day and 24.11% year-to-date[3] Sector Performance - Innovative pharmaceuticals and outsourcing concepts saw notable gains, with companies like Innovent Biologics rising over 6%[9] - Military stocks also performed well, with China Shipbuilding Defense up over 13%[9] - Oil stocks were weak, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation and China Oilfield Services both declining over 1%[9] U.S. Market Insights - On the same day, U.S. markets saw all three major indices close higher, driven by increased bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut[9] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, including Google and Nvidia, all rose, with Google gaining over 6%[9] - The S&P 500 index is projected to achieve double-digit annual growth according to HSBC strategists[14] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in December, with market predictions showing a 70% probability[14] - The U.S. economy's third-quarter GDP report has been delayed due to a government shutdown, affecting economic analysis[14] Investment Trends - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 2.82%, indicating a positive trend for Chinese concept stocks[13] - Significant inflows into semiconductor stocks were noted, with companies like Broadcom surging 11%[13]

漫剧市场开出第一张罚单，高质量专业创作方将迎来更大机会 11月初，国家广电总局下发工作提示，即日起至2026年3月开展专项治理，将各类动画形式微短剧纳入 分类分层审核体系。11月20日，中国网络视听节目服务协会通报灵矩动漫漫剧《高考落榜，忽悠同学上 冥牌大学》因过度宣扬封建迷信，存在严重价值导向偏差，被全网下架。 智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，一众平台纷纷发力漫剧。11月初，国家广电总局下发工作提 示，即日起至2026年3月开展专项治理，将各类动画形式微短剧纳入分类分层审核体系。该行认为， Gemini 3为漫剧创作增添强力助手，大模型不断迭代让创作者以极低成本实现传统制作方式难以完成的 视觉效果。建议持续关注：漫画、网文等IP源头公司以及AI技术和平台优势公司。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 抖音单日播放破4亿，一众平台纷纷发力 11月16日，"漫剧有数"统计显示，抖音端原生单日新增播放已破4亿大关。11月18日，爱奇艺发布Q3财 报称正拓展漫剧业务，开发自制漫剧;11月19日，爱奇艺正式发布公告称平台已经上线漫剧专属频道。 11月21日，报道称腾讯正在测试"火星动漫""火星动漫社"两款漫剧微信小程序， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 28.4 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing an 8.2% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit of 18.2 billion yuan, up 10.3% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.6 billion yuan, which is a 31.8% increase year-on-year [1][2]. - The company has a strong cash position with net cash of 153.2 billion yuan and operating cash flow of 12.9 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 21.7% year-on-year growth [1]. - The classic games segment performed well, contributing to a revenue of 23.3 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, driven by self-developed games and several agency games [6][8]. - The company has a rich pipeline of upcoming games, including titles that have already gained traction in both domestic and international markets [6][8]. - The report anticipates that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will reach 35.1 billion yuan, 38.5 billion yuan, and 42.5 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - The total revenue forecast for the company is projected to grow from 103.5 billion yuan in 2023 to 130.1 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7% [2][9]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 29.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 42.5 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of around 10% [2][9]. - The report highlights a decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio from 20.6 in 2023 to 14.2 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation over the forecast period [2][9]. Shareholder Information - The company has a total share capital of 3.168 billion shares, with a market capitalization of 67.35 billion Hong Kong dollars [3][6]. - The major shareholder, Shining Globe International Limited, holds a 45.17% stake in the company [3].

美银发布研报称，网易-S(09999.HK)第三季业绩发布后，与网易集团副总裁Bill Pang及投资关系团队举 行电话会议，会后对《无限大(ANANTA)》的用户参与度及盈利潜力更为乐观，现预计上线后年化流水 可达100亿人民币。该行将网易2025-2027年经调整每股盈测上调0-4%，以反映《无限大(ANANTA)》上 线后的业绩贡献，同时抵消略高的销售及市场费用影响。因此重申网易"买入"评级及目标价259港元。 ...

该行指出该游戏正式上线或仍需数个季度，最早预计于2026年第三季末。美银预计，未来6-9个月网易 现有常青游戏、加上暴雪新游《暗黑破坏神IV(Diablo 4)》将支撑集团收入增长，预计2026年将增长 8%。其后《无限大(ANANTA)》与《遗忘之海(Sea of Remnants)》将接力贡献业绩。此外，网易剩余30 亿美元回购计划有望为股价提供下行支撑。 智通财经APP获悉，美银发布研报称，网易-S(09999)第三季业绩发布后，与网易集团副总裁Bill Pang及 投资关系团队举行电话会议，会后对《无限大(ANANTA)》的用户参与度及盈利潜力更为乐观，现预计 上线后年化流水可达100亿人民币。该行将网易2025-2027年经调整每股盈测上调0-4%，以反映《无限大 (ANANTA)》上线后的业绩贡献，同时抵消略高的销售及市场费用影响。因此重申网易"买入"评级及目 标价259港元。 ...

金吾财讯 | 网易(NTES)盘前股价上扬，暂升3.69%，报138.51美元。 开源证券研报指出，公司2025Q3实现营业收入284亿元（同比+8.2%，环比+1.7%），归母净利润86亿 元（同比+31.8%，环比+0.2%）。Q3毛利率为64.1%（同比+1.2pct），销售/管理/研发费率分别为 15.7%/4.1%/16.0%（同比+1.2/-0.1/-0.9pct），净利率为31.0%（同比+5.4pct），盈利能力提升主要得益 于股票投资公允价值变动收益及较低的净汇兑损失。 来源：金吾财讯 截至2025Q3末，公司合同负债达195亿元（同比+25%，环比+15%），递延收入逐步释放或驱动业绩延 续高增。基于Q3业绩，该机构下调2025-2027年业绩预测，预计2025-2027年归母净利润分别为 357/383/429（前值375/405/464）亿元，当前股价对应PE分别为16.6/15.5/13.8倍，该机构看好储备游戏 逐步上线、优质产品出海、AI赋能深化共同驱动公司业绩增长，维持"买入"评级。 ...

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review highlights that the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 in September, significantly above the expected 50,000, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.4% [7] Industry and Company - In the restaurant industry, the report recommends leading companies in the hot pot sector, noting that in October 2025, the A-share, H-share, and U.S. stock markets saw significant gains for several chain restaurants, particularly Guoquan, which projected a revenue increase of 13.6%-25.8% for Q3 2025 [3][8] - The report indicates that the overall restaurant revenue in China increased by 3.8% year-on-year in October, with the CPI showing a slight increase due to holiday effects and domestic demand policies [8] - The report tracks the expansion of coffee brands, with notable growth in the coffee sector, particularly for brands like Nuo Wa, which saw significant store openings [9] - For the home appliance industry, October sales were under pressure, with a 15% decline in retail sales of home appliances, and a 13% drop in export value [13][14] - The report notes that in October, air conditioning sales fell by 20.1%, with expectations of continued pressure on production in December [15] - In the automotive sector, XPeng Motors reported a 149% year-on-year increase in sales for Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 20.4 billion yuan, marking a 102% increase [19][20] - The report highlights that NVIDIA's revenue for Q3 reached $57 billion, a 62% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand in data centers and gaming [25][26] - NetEase's revenue for Q3 increased by 8% year-on-year, with deferred revenue growing by 25%, indicating strong long-term operational capabilities [28][30] - Huazhu Group's Q3 revenue grew by 17.5% year-on-year, with a focus on expanding its membership base and improving revenue management [31][32] - Ctrip's Q3 revenue increased by 15.5% year-on-year, with a significant contribution from the sale of Makemytrip, indicating strong performance in the travel sector [34]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming giant NetEase is undergoing a significant separation from major domestic Android phone manufacturers, leading to the removal of its games from various app stores, indicating a shift in the gaming distribution landscape in China [4][12]. Group 1: Industry Changes - A growing number of users are reporting the disappearance of NetEase games from app stores of major Android brands like OPPO, Xiaomi, and Vivo, starting with less popular titles and escalating to major games [2][4]. - The traditional revenue-sharing model, often referred to as "Android tax," where 50% of revenue goes to phone manufacturers, is becoming increasingly unsustainable for game developers due to rising development and marketing costs [8][9][12]. - The emergence of new platforms, particularly short video platforms, has diverted traffic away from traditional app stores, prompting developers to seek alternative distribution methods [12][18]. Group 2: Developer Strategies - In response to the changing landscape, major developers like NetEase and Tencent are moving away from channel servers, indicating a shift towards official game servers to retain user data and provide better service [14][20]. - Smaller developers may still rely on channel servers for exposure and user acquisition, but they face challenges as the market evolves [20][24]. Group 3: App Store Dynamics - The app store ecosystem is experiencing a crisis of relevance, with many popular games and applications becoming difficult to find, leading to a decline in user trust [16][18]. - Platforms like TapTap are gaining traction by offering a more authentic user experience, including community engagement and genuine player reviews, contrasting with traditional app stores [18][24]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The current revenue-sharing model is under scrutiny, with calls for a reduction in the high 50% cut taken by app stores to foster a healthier ecosystem for developers [24]. - There is a need for phone manufacturers to enhance their app store offerings by improving user experience and community engagement to remain competitive [22][24].