据新华社消息，国航、南航、东航1月26日发布公告称，根据外交部发布的出行提醒，为协助受影响旅客更好安排出行，针对1月26日12时前已购买、旅行 日期为3月29日至10月24日的上述航空公司日本航线进出港航班客票，可办理免费退改手续。 国航公告—— 南航公告—— 东航公告—— 来源：@新华社 据悉，上述航空公司已多次发布涉日本航线客票特殊处置方案，此前的免费退改政策执行至3月28日。 ...

据新华社消息，国航、南航、东航1月26日发布公告称，根据外交部发布的出行提醒，为协助受影响旅 客更好安排出行，针对1月26日12时前已购买、旅行日期为3月29日至10月24日的上述航空公司日本航线 进出港航班客票，可办理免费退改手续。 另据第一财经消息，航班管家数据显示，截至1月26日，2026年2月已有49条航线取消全部航班，比一月 进一步增加。2026年1月，中国大陆赴日本航班取消率达47.2%，较2025年12月增长7.8个百分点。 来源：长安街知事微信公众号 近段时间以来，日本社会治安不靖，针对中国公民违法犯罪案件多发。部分地区连续发生地震，造成人 员受伤，日本政府已就后续地震发出警告。中国公民在日本面临严重安全威胁。 农历春节临近，外交部和中国驻日本使领馆提醒中国公民近期避免前往日本，提醒已在日中国公民密切 关注当地治安形势，以及地震和次生灾害预警信息，提高安全防范意识，加强自我保护。如遇紧急情 况，请及时报警并联系驻日使领馆寻求协助。 据悉，上述航空公司已多次发布涉日本航线客票特殊处置方案，此前的免费退改政策执行至3月28日。 同日，外交部领事司发布消息，提醒中国公民春节期间避免前往日本： ...

Core Insights - The cancellation rate of flights from mainland China to Japan has significantly increased, with a reported 47.2% cancellation rate in January 2026, up by 7.8 percentage points from December 2025 [2] - As of January 26, 2026, a total of 49 flight routes have canceled all flights, indicating a worsening trend in flight operations [1] Flight Cancellations - The cancellation rates for specific routes from mainland China to Japan in February 2026 show that several routes have a 100% cancellation rate, including major cities such as Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai [3] - Notable routes with 100% cancellations include Beijing Daxing to Kansai (113 flights), Shanghai Pudong to Osaka Kobe (28 flights), and Shenzhen Baoan to New Chitose (13 flights [3] Airline Policies - Multiple airlines, including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, have announced extended free ticket change and cancellation policies for flights to Japan until October 24, 2026 [4][10] - Air China allows for free changes for tickets purchased before January 26, 2026, for flights scheduled between March 29 and October 24, 2026, with specific conditions for changes and refunds [4] - China Eastern's policy includes free changes for flights within three days of the original flight date and allows for non-voluntary refunds without fees for unused segments [5][7] Impact on Tourism and Retail - The number of visitors from mainland China to Japan dropped significantly, with December 2025 seeing a 45.3% decrease compared to the previous year, attributed to various factors including safety concerns and negative public sentiment [12][14] - Japan's retail sector is experiencing a downturn, with department store sales declining by 1.5% in 2025, marking the first negative growth in five years, largely due to weak inbound consumption [12][14] Safety Concerns - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued warnings to citizens regarding travel to Japan, citing safety threats and recent seismic activity, urging travelers to reconsider their plans [15]

Group 1 - Major Chinese airlines including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines announced a policy allowing free cancellations and changes for flights to and from Japan booked before January 26, with travel dates from March 29, 2026, to October 24, 2026 [1] - This policy indicates a contraction in the Japanese travel market for the year, with significant losses of Chinese tourists expected during major holidays such as Spring Festival, Qingming, May Day, summer vacation, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day [1] - Data shows that in 2025, the number of Chinese tourists to Japan reached 9.09 million, a 30% increase from 6.98 million in 2024, but there was a notable decline in tourist numbers in the last two months of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Since November 15 of the previous year, Chinese airlines have canceled a significant number of flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 47.2% for January 2026 flights compared to December 2025, an increase of 7.8 percentage points [1] - As of January 26, 2026, a total of 49 routes to Japan have had all flights canceled for February [1] - In December 2025, the number of Chinese citizens traveling to Japan was 348,700, a decrease of approximately 40% year-on-year and a 35% month-on-month decline from November 2025 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by major Chinese airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) regarding free cancellations and changes for flights to and from Japan from March 29 to October 24, 2026, indicates a significant contraction in the Japan travel market for Chinese tourists in 2026, especially during peak holiday seasons [1]. Summary by Sections Airline Policy Changes - Major Chinese airlines have collectively announced free cancellation and modification policies for flights to Japan, effective for tickets purchased before January 26, 2026, for travel between March 29 and October 24, 2026 [1]. - It is anticipated that other Chinese airlines will follow suit with similar policies [1]. Impact on Travel Market - The Japan travel market is expected to experience a significant decline in Chinese tourists, missing out on key holiday periods such as Spring Festival, Qingming, May Day, summer vacations, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day [1]. - Data indicates that in 2025, the number of Chinese tourists to Japan is projected to reach 9.09 million, a 30% increase from 6.98 million in 2024. However, this growth is primarily driven by the first ten months of 2025, with a monthly average of over 800,000 tourists [1]. Flight Cancellations - Since November 15, 2025, Chinese airlines have canceled a significant number of flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 47.2% for January 2026, an increase of 7.8 percentage points from December 2025 [1]. - As of January 26, 2026, there are 49 routes with all flights canceled for February 2026 [1]. Specific Route Cancellations - A detailed list shows that multiple routes from various cities in China to Japan have a 100% cancellation rate, including major routes from Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu [2][3]. - The cancellation of flights is expected to further impact the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan in 2026, with December 2025 statistics showing a significant drop in travelers compared to previous years [3].

Group 1 - Major airlines including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines announced a special policy for ticket refunds and changes for flights to and from Japan, applicable for tickets purchased or changed before January 26, 2026, 12:00 PM, for travel dates from March 29, 2026, to October 24, 2026 [1][2] - The policy aims to assist travelers in light of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs' warnings regarding travel to Japan, allowing for free changes and cancellations for affected flights [2][3] - As of January 26, 2026, the cancellation rate for flights from mainland China to Japan reached 47.2%, an increase of 7.8 percentage points compared to December 2025, with 49 routes already canceling all flights in February 2026 [3]

Market Overview - The aviation and airport sector declined by 1.1% on January 26, with CITIC Hainan Airlines leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Spring Airlines (601021) closed at 58.13, up 0.05% with a trading volume of 50,900 shares and a turnover of 297 million yuan - China Eastern Airlines (600115) closed at 5.81, down 1.19% with a trading volume of 2,620,300 shares and a turnover of 1.536 billion yuan - CITIC Hainan Airlines (000099) closed at 20.44, down 3.90% with a trading volume of 251,500 shares and a turnover of 518 million yuan [1][3] Capital Flow - The aviation and airport sector experienced a net outflow of 999.1 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 624.0 million yuan [3][4] - The capital flow for specific stocks shows: - Shenzhen Airport (000089) had a net outflow of 6.15 million yuan from retail investors - CITIC Hainan Airlines (000099) had a significant net outflow of 60.43 million yuan from institutional investors [4] ETF Performance - The Aerospace ETF (product code: 159227) tracked the National Aerospace Industry Index and saw a 6.64% increase over the past five days, with a net subscription of 190 million yuan [6] - The General Aviation ETF (product code: 159230) tracked the National General Aviation Industry Index and had a 5.15% increase, but saw a decrease of 10 million shares in its latest subscription [7]

Group 1 - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, announced free ticket changes and cancellations for flights to and from Japan scheduled between March 29, 2026, and October 24, 2026, for tickets purchased before January 26, 2026 [1][9] - The announcement indicates a contraction in the Japanese travel market, with significant losses of Chinese tourists expected during major holidays in 2026, including Qingming, Labor Day, summer vacation, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day [1] - Data shows that in 2025, the number of Chinese tourists to Japan reached 9.09 million, a 30% increase from 6.98 million in 2024, but there was a notable decline in November and December 2025, with visitor numbers dropping to 560,000 and 330,000 respectively [2][1] Group 2 - Since November 15, 2025, Chinese airlines have canceled a significant number of flights to Japan, with a cancellation rate of 47.2% in January 2026, an increase of 7.8 percentage points from December 2025 [1] - As of January 26, 2026, a total of 49 routes for February 2026 have had all flights canceled, indicating a severe reduction in flight availability [1]

Group 1 - Multiple Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and others, announced that tickets issued before January 26 for flights to and from Japan between March 29, 2026, and October 24, 2026, can be changed or refunded for free [1] - In November 2025, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and consulates in Japan advised Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan due to safety concerns, leading to special ticket handling for flights during that period [4] - Recent incidents in Japan have raised safety concerns, with reports of violent crimes and attacks against Chinese citizens, prompting the Chinese embassy in Japan to offer assistance and urge local authorities to ensure the safety of Chinese nationals [4][5] Group 2 - The Chinese embassy in Japan has reiterated the importance of safety for Chinese citizens traveling abroad, especially during the upcoming Spring Festival, and has advised them to stay informed about local security conditions [5] - Chinese citizens in Japan are encouraged to enhance their safety awareness and self-protection measures, and to report any discriminatory incidents to the authorities and the embassy [5]

Group 1 - Multiple airlines, including Air China, Eastern Airlines, and Southern Airlines, announced special handling policies for tickets related to flights to Japan, effective until January 26, 2026 [1][2] - Air China allows for one free change of tickets purchased before January 26, 2026, for travel dates between March 29, 2026, and October 24, 2026, with no change fee for the first change [1] - Eastern Airlines permits free changes for flights within three days before or after the original flight, with conditions for subsequent changes [2] Group 2 - The collective announcement extends the free cancellation and change policy for Japan routes through the summer and autumn seasons of 2026 [2] - Reports indicate that over 40% of planned flights from China to Japan in December 2025 were canceled, reflecting a significant reduction in travel demand [4] - The number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan in December 2025 dropped by 45.3% year-on-year, with a notable decline in shopping and consumption in Japanese department stores [3][4]