Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Insights - The easing of the Israel-Iran conflict has led to a decline in oil tanker rates, with the VLCC market shifting from geopolitical influences to supply-demand fundamentals [3][14] - The establishment of the General Aviation and Low Altitude Economy Working Group by the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) aims to enhance the development of low-altitude economy and general aviation [3][16] - The price of unmanned logistics vehicles has dropped to around 20,000 yuan, contributing to a 5.3% year-on-year growth in national social logistics total in the first five months of 2025 [3][22] Industry Highlights - The VLCC market sentiment has transitioned to supply-demand fundamentals, with tanker rates under pressure due to increased competition among shipowners and no significant rise in cargo volumes [3][14] - As of July 4, 2025, the shipping rates from Shanghai to Europe increased by 3.5% to 2,101 USD/TEU, while rates to the US West and East coasts decreased by 19.0% and 12.6%, respectively [3][15] - In the first half of 2025, 117 new international air cargo routes were opened in China, with over 233 round-trip flights added weekly [3][16][18] - The logistics sector has seen a total of 138.7 trillion yuan in social logistics, reflecting a 5.3% year-on-year increase, with a slight deceleration in growth compared to previous months [3][24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - In June 2025, domestic cargo flights increased by 9.42% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 32.87% [26][33] - The express delivery sector experienced a 17.20% year-on-year increase in business volume in May 2025, with total express business volume reaching 173.2 billion pieces [56][58] - The national port cargo throughput reached 7.345 billion tons in the first five months of 2025, marking a 3.8% year-on-year growth [52]

Core Viewpoint - China Southern Airlines has recently canceled multiple direct flights to Japan due to intense competition in the market, leading to a significant adjustment in capacity and a strategic decision to prioritize profitability over maintaining certain routes [1][10][13]. Flight Cancellations - Several flights from Shanghai Pudong to Osaka (CZ8389, CZ8390), Shenzhen to Osaka (CZ8425, CZ8426), and Guangzhou to Nagoya (CZ6055, CZ6056) have been canceled, primarily affecting dates in August and September [3][4]. - Customers received cancellation notifications but were not informed of the reasons behind the cancellations, leading to confusion and inconvenience [3][8]. Market Competition - The competitive landscape includes Eastern Airlines dominating the Shanghai route with more flights and higher customer loyalty, while Hong Kong's lower prices and greater flight availability are diverting passengers from Southern Airlines [10][11]. - Data indicates that Eastern Airlines accounted for 19.6% of the planned flights on the Japan routes during the summer travel season, while Southern Airlines only held a 9.9% share [10]. Pricing Dynamics - Flight prices from Hong Kong to Osaka are significantly lower than those from Shenzhen and Guangzhou, with the lowest fares from Hong Kong around 588 yuan, compared to Shenzhen's minimum of 1099 yuan and Guangzhou's 800 yuan [11][13]. - Promotional activities by foreign airlines, such as "buy one get one free" offers, have further intensified market competition [13]. Capacity Adjustment - Southern Airlines has reduced its flight frequency on certain routes, canceling over 20 round trips weekly while still maintaining nearly 130 round trips, which represents a 55% year-on-year increase [9][10]. - The airline is reallocating its capacity to more profitable domestic routes in response to the competitive pressures and lower demand for Japan flights [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The aviation industry's profitability framework is influenced by capacity supply, travel demand, load factor, ticket price performance, fuel prices, and exchange rate fluctuations, which ultimately affect company profit performance [16][2] - Domestic travel demand is steadily increasing, while international routes have largely recovered to 2019 levels [3][31] - Supply chain disruptions are delaying aircraft deliveries, leading to a contraction in capacity supply [4][6] Summary by Sections Demand - Domestic air passenger traffic increased by 4.2% year-on-year from January to May 2025, with high load factors sustained [3] - International passenger traffic has nearly returned to 2019 levels, with recovery rates of 106.3% for passenger volume and 101.0% for turnover by May 2025 [31][33] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption are expected to enhance public leisure travel demand, thereby increasing aviation travel demand [3][37] Supply - The growth rate of capacity introduction is slowing, and aircraft leasing prices are rising due to ongoing supply chain issues [4] - The average fleet utilization rate is expected to have limited improvement during peak seasons, with a significant gap remaining compared to 2019 levels [5] - The number of grounded aircraft for maintenance has increased, exacerbating capacity constraints [6] Supply and Demand Balance - The industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with load factors returning to high levels, and ticket prices are expected to rise during peak seasons [6] - In 2023, ticket prices reached historical highs, but are projected to decline in 2024 before rebounding in 2025 [7] - Airlines are likely to benefit from rising ticket prices and declining fuel costs, leading to high earnings elasticity [8] Revenue and Cost Sensitivity - Airlines can maximize revenue through high load factors and unit revenue per route, with domestic capacity growth slowing and international capacity gradually recovering [8] - Fuel cost pressures are expected to ease, with average fuel prices declining year-on-year [8] - Sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1% increase in ticket prices could significantly boost profits for major airlines [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a positive outlook for the aviation industry, emphasizing the potential for improved supply-demand dynamics and ticket price recovery during peak seasons [8]

Group 1 - The civil aviation market in China is experiencing a peak as the summer travel season begins in 2025, with Southern Airlines' Xi'an branch enhancing its operational capabilities to provide efficient and comfortable travel experiences for passengers [1] - Southern Airlines plans to operate an average of 106 flights daily at Xi'an Xianyang International Airport, covering 23 destinations to support summer travel demand [1] - The airline's route network includes 20 key domestic cities and 3 international destinations, with a focus on routes from Xi'an to Guangzhou and Shenzhen, utilizing wide-body aircraft to accommodate increased passenger volume [1] Group 2 - There is a dual-direction travel trend from Xi'an this summer, with increased leisure travel to destinations like Urumqi and Sanya, alongside business travel to Guangzhou and Shenzhen [2] - Southern Airlines will increase the frequency of flights from Xi'an to Sanya from 2 to 3 daily flights during the peak season, providing more flexible travel options for families [2] - The airline has implemented a "summer travel weather warning mechanism" to anticipate the impact of extreme weather on flights and has advised passengers to check flight statuses through various channels [2] Group 3 - Southern Airlines is upgrading ground services at Xianyang Airport by establishing a "summer love channel" for elderly, children, and passengers with mobility issues, and increasing check-in counters and self-service check-in devices to reduce wait times [3] - The overall goal is to ensure a safe, comfortable, and warm travel experience for all passengers during the summer season [3]

2025年7月1日的那个夏日上午，刺耳的玻璃碎裂声撕破了南航长春基地的宁静。 31岁的机长李煜众，在刃伤两名公司领导之后，从高楼之巅纵身跃下，年轻的生命戛然而止，如同他所 驾驭的飞机突然从云端断线。留下的，是襁褓中不谙世事的孩子，和一位妻子泣血锥心的网络诘 问："我要知道真相！" 行凶暴力，法律不容，毋庸置疑。然而，一个拥有十年功勋、正值盛年、获誉无数并曾在疫情中主动请 缨的南航骨干，一个初尝人父喜悦、本应拥抱无尽可能的家庭顶梁柱，究竟被逼至何种绝境，才会选择 如此惨烈的方式告别蓝天与至亲？ 让我们先还原这场悲剧的脉络。 2025年6月27日，南航吉林分公司发生了一起"二级事件"——官方通报语焉不详，但据业内消息，这可 能涉及飞行操作失误或安全疏漏。机长李煜众，这位31岁的年轻飞行员，工作近十年，曾多次获得公司 表彰，是南航的骨干力量，疫情期间还曾主动请缨留守备飞。然而，事件发生后，公司迅速将他停飞。 两天后的6月30日，南航给出处理意见：将李煜众从机长降为"Z类机长"（实质是副驾驶）。这一降职， 不仅意味着收入锐减、职业尊严扫地，更可能终结他的飞行生涯。7月1日上午，李煜众前往公司申诉。 上午10点多，悲剧 ...

Core Points - China Southern Airlines (CSA) has launched a new service called "Pet in Cabin," allowing passengers to bring their pets into the cabin on flights, enhancing the travel experience for pet owners [1][2] - The service has expanded from 9 initial locations to include 10 additional airports, covering over 200 direct routes, thus increasing accessibility for pet travelers [1] - CSA has optimized the service standards by increasing the number of pets allowed per flight from 2 to 4, removing restrictions on short-nosed dogs and cats, and requiring dogs to wear muzzles during transport [1] Service Details - Passengers needing the "Pet in Cabin" service can purchase it through the China Southern Airlines app or mini-program at least 6 hours before departure, with options for pet placement under the seat or purchasing an additional seat [2] - CSA provides a range of services including pet cabin transport, dedicated service counters, pet boarding passes, protective nets for pet carriers, and pet transport insurance [2] - The airline has introduced personalized services such as "Pet Flies Alone," "Pet Flies Together," and "Pet in Cabin," along with dedicated pet service areas at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport [2]

（王姣姣 / 摄） 在党史知识问答环节，乘务员围绕"党的成立时间与地点""党徽构成""中共一大会址"等十多道题目展开 提问。旅客们积极参与抢答，在互动中重温党的光辉历史。其中，有着34年党龄的许先生感慨地 说："永远跟党走，此生无悔做华夏人！" 未来，南航上海分公司将继续以特色航班活动为载体，传承革命精神，弘扬文化自信，让红色文化在蓝 天之上熠熠生辉，为旅客提供更加丰富的出行体验，让更多人享受美好的飞行旅程。（编辑：张薇，校 对：张彤，审核：韩磊） （徐文佳 / 摄） 《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者胡夕姮 通讯员张媛杰、潘水花 报道：6月28日至6月30日，南航上海 分公司在CZ3678（昆明—上海浦东）、CZ6564（上海虹桥—乌鲁木齐）航班上开展"红心向党·木棉颂 歌"主题航班活动，通过知识问答、分享感悟等互动形式，带领旅客在万米高空回顾中国共产党自成立 至今的104年的光辉历程。 航班上，乘务组张贴主题贴纸，精心布置客舱，营造浓厚的红色客舱氛围。随着"木棉颂歌"特色广播词 的响起，活动正式拉开帷幕。党员乘务员身着整齐制服，佩戴党徽，邀请旅客参与互动活动。 "上海是党的诞生地，中共一大会址见证伟大开端。 ...

7月2日，长春市公安局二道区分局发布一则警情通报，全文如下： 来源：@新华社 长春市公安局二道区分局 2025年7月2日 责编：刘珺宇 校对：吕久彪 警 情 通 报 百万用户都在看 直线飙升！三重利好，集中来袭！ 午后，突发！直线飙升，发生了什么？ 集体大涨！特朗普，新计划曝光！ 美联储，突传重磅！ 10万亿，集体杀跌！发生了什么？ 2025年7月1日10时22分,长春市二道区吉林 大路与洋浦西街交汇处发生一起刑事案件。南航 吉林分公司员工李某某(男,31岁)因工作纠纷, 将同事黄某(男,52岁)、李某(男,47岁)扎伤后跳 楼身亡。黄某、李某经送医救治,无生命危险。 违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 目前,案件正在进一步侦办中。 65 @新华社 ...

据央视新闻，吉林省长春市公安局二道区分局发布警情通报： 2025年7月1日10时22分，长春市二道区吉林大路与洋浦西街交汇处发生一起刑事案件。南航吉林 分公司员工李某某（男，31岁）因工作纠纷，将同事黄某（男，52岁）、李某（男，47岁）扎伤后 跳楼身亡。黄某、李某经送医救治，无生命危险。 目前，案件正在进一步侦办中。 ...

7月2日， 长春市公安局二道区分局发布警情通报称，2025年7月1日10时22分，长春市二道 区吉林大路与洋浦西街交汇处发生一起刑事案件。南航吉林分公司员工 李某某（男，31岁） 因工作纠纷，将同事黄某（男，52岁）、李某（男，47岁）扎伤后跳楼身亡 。黄某、李某经 送医救治，无生命危险。 目前，案件正在进一步侦办中。 来源： 新华社 ...