环球市场动态 美 国 通 胀 下 半 年 存 在 反 弹 隐 忧 股 票 固 定 收 益 美国国债收益率上涨，曲线趋平， 30 年期国债招标吸引稳健需求。亚 洲债市表现坚挺。中国投资级债券 利差收窄 1-3 个基点。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2025 年 7 月 11 日 123 ▪ 特朗普政府的关税措施已落地数月之久，我们认为美国进口商应是美国跨境贸易中关税升幅的主要承担者，中 国出口商目前可能承担了关税增量的 12%左右，其中服装出口商分担关税的步伐可能较快，未来跨境贸易中大 部分含税价格的涨幅可能仍需由美国买家承担。我们在将超六万条美国进口货物统计数据映射到投入产出表体 系后发现，进口含量高的美国终端消费品价格似乎已能显现关税影响的身影，其中 "中国含量" 较高的消费品 似乎已在所谓 "芬太尼关税" 落地后开始温和涨价，而进口来源主要是欧日等其它非美贸易伙伴的消费品则尚 未因"基准关税"生效而涨价，后者对应的美国零售商目前可能自行吸收了关税成本。白宫关税生效后美国通胀 的 "岁月静好" 还能维持多久，需看美国企业是否 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8][10]. Core Insights - The company, Xiaocaiyuan, is a representative brand of popular and affordable Chinese cuisine, focusing on providing home-style dishes and quality service. It has shown strong performance in core operating metrics and rapid store expansion, aligning with current consumer trends in the restaurant industry [3][5][16]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 703 million, 842 million, and 1,003 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a leader in the popular and affordable Chinese dining sector, dedicated to developing traditional and innovative Huizhou cuisine. The core team has extensive experience in the restaurant industry, and the company operates 667 stores as of 2024, primarily through a pure franchise model [5][16]. Industry Potential - The restaurant industry is experiencing a recovery, with the popular and affordable Chinese dining market showing significant growth potential. The market structure is fragmented, with a dominant share of products priced below 100 yuan, and the sector is expected to expand further due to innovation and a growing lower-tier market [6][48]. Operational Efficiency - The company employs standardized operations and a self-built supply chain to enhance product quality and control costs. The single-store model is highly competitive, and the company has significant room for expansion, particularly in high-tier cities [7][39]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated robust revenue and profit growth, with a revenue of 5.21 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.52%. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2021 to 2024 is 25.34%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders has a CAGR of 36.79% during the same period [39][43].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The company, Xiaocaiyuan, is a representative brand of popular and affordable home-style cuisine, focusing on providing high-quality service and dishes at reasonable prices. It has shown strong performance in core operating metrics and rapid store expansion, aligning well with current consumer trends in the restaurant industry [3][9][20]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 703 million, 842 million, and 1,003 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [3][12]. Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a leader in the popular and affordable Chinese dining sector, dedicated to developing traditional and innovative Huizhou cuisine. The core team has extensive experience in the restaurant industry, contributing to the company's strong market positioning [9][20]. - As of 2024, the company operates 667 stores in a pure franchise model, with a steady expansion trend. Its affordable delivery service has gained consumer recognition, becoming a significant driver of revenue growth [9][10][20]. Industry Analysis - The restaurant industry is experiencing a recovery, with the popular and affordable Chinese dining market showing significant growth potential. The market structure is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape, with a dominant share of products priced below 100 yuan [10][54]. - The industry has undergone significant changes, with a rise in capital and entrepreneurs entering the market, leading to increased competition and a higher chain rate. The market is expected to rebound in 2025 due to policy incentives and the deepening of delivery habits [10][54]. Operational Efficiency - The company has enhanced its operational capabilities through standardized processes and digital empowerment, which have improved management efficiency and cost optimization. The single-store model is highly competitive, and the company has significant room for expansion [11][12][21]. - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.34% in revenue from 2021 to 2024, with a CAGR of 36.79% in net profit attributable to shareholders during the same period [44][49].

齐鲁晚报·齐鲁壹点 张志恒 2025年5月8日，沪上阿姨（AUNTEA JENNY）正式在香港联合交易所主板挂牌上市，股票代码02589.HK。其发行价为每股113.12港元， 首日开盘价为190.6港元，较发行价上涨68.49%，总市值约200亿港元。是继霸王茶姬、蜜雪冰城等品牌后第六家上市的现制茶饮品牌。 （资料图） 同时，多家餐饮品牌也在竞逐IPO，时间回溯到4月23日，绿茶集团正式通过港交所主板上市聆讯，自2021年3月首次递交港交所上市申 请以来，绿茶集团已五次冲击IPO。中式快餐头部品牌老乡鸡也在今年1月3日向港交所递交招股书。西贝餐饮集团创始人贾国龙早在 2022年也表示，计划通过2023-2025年的持续发展，在2026年完成IPO上市，并设定了2030年营收超千亿的目标。2024年发布的文章也重 申了这一计划，强调2026年为IPO目标时间点。 餐饮品牌缘何扎堆港股 梳理发现，已上市的餐饮品牌中，选择在港股上市的占比达70%，而自2024年至今，已有超过15家餐饮企业递交上市申请，涵盖火锅、 正餐、快餐、茶饮等细分赛道，多数也选择在港股上市。资本市场对餐饮行业的关注度达到历史峰值，仅2025 ...

事件：公司发布2024年年报，2024年公司实现营业收入7.64亿元同比+5.64%：归母净利润1.86亿元，同 比+6.50%：扣非后归母净利润1.76亿元，同比+5.94%。毛利率50.21%，同比+0.59pct；净利率 24.33%， 同比+0.19pct 政策支持旅游提振，叠加数智能力提升运营效率。2025年4月，商务部等9部门联合印发《服务消费提质 惠民行动2025年工作方案》，提出48条具体任务举措，既涵盖了餐饮、住宿、文化娱乐旅游休闲等主要 行业领域，从供给端到消费端全方位支持文旅行业恢复与升级。公司加快会员系统建设、智慧停车场及 数字化营运系统建设，提升用户体验和后台管理效率。针对省内、江浙沪周边以及中远程客源地市场， 深化目的地旅行商业务合作，积极参加全域旅游推介活动，全力拓宽业务渠道。政策红利的释放利好旅 游企业业绩和市值提振，公司积极策划宣传活动提升景区吸引力，公司有望乘政策东风，打造新的业绩 增长曲线。 投资建议：公司基本面稳健，主业协同优势突出，叠加"等庙游"热度延续、政策扶持、交通改善及项目 升级等多重利好，公司成长动能持续释放。预计2025年业绩延续增长，估值有望修复，建议关注 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.931 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.09%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 317 million, a year-on-year decrease of 18.95%. The company is expected to benefit from improved transportation conditions and hotel project renovations, leading to stable revenue growth [2][6]. - The opening of the Chi-Huang high-speed railway in 2024, along with improved weather conditions, is anticipated to further increase visitor traffic to the mountains. Upgrades to hotels are expected to enhance both volume and pricing [2][6]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 377 million, 415 million, and 449 million, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23, 21, and 19 [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 519 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.93%, and a net profit of 45 million, marking a return to profitability [6]. - The total number of visitors to the scenic area reached 4.9224 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, while the cable car service transported 9.8149 million visitors, up 3.25% year-on-year [12]. - The decline in profit despite increased visitor numbers was attributed to a decrease in ticket prices, adverse weather conditions, and increased depreciation from new investments [12]. Cost and Profitability - Operating costs increased by 4.98% year-on-year, outpacing revenue growth, primarily due to new investment projects still in the cultivation phase, leading to a gross margin of 51.78%, down 2.24 percentage points [12]. - The company's net profit margin decreased by 6.03 percentage points to 17.61% due to rising costs and increased expense ratios [12]. Business Segments - Revenue from the scenic area business declined by 9.22%, while hotel and cable car businesses saw increases of 2.55% and 1.02%, respectively. The decline in scenic area revenue was mainly due to lower ticket prices [12]. - The company is undertaking several renovation and investment projects, including a 150 million upgrade to the Huangshan International Hotel and a joint venture to develop a cultural performance project [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from multiple favorable factors, including improved transportation and hotel renovations, leading to steady revenue growth. Visitor traffic is projected to increase with the opening of the Chi-Huang high-speed railway [2][12].

Core Viewpoint - Huangshan Tourism reported a revenue of 1.931 billion yuan and a net profit of 315 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25.51% in net profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1.931 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The net profit for the year was 315 million yuan, down 25.51% compared to the previous year [1] - The non-recurring net profit was reported at 317 million yuan [1] Group 2: Visitor Statistics - The Huangshan scenic area received a total of 4.9224 million visitors, an increase of 347,800 visitors or 7.60% year-on-year [1] - The cable car and gondola services transported 9.8149 million visitors, which is an increase of 308,800 visitors or 3.25% compared to the previous year [1] Group 3: Strategic Development - The company is focusing on developing a comprehensive tourism strategy, including launching the Yunlu Hotel brand and enhancing existing facilities [2] - Projects such as the Taiping Lake scenic area upgrade and the Huashan night tour brand are being actively promoted to enhance visitor experience [2] - The company aims to integrate cultural heritage with tourism, expanding its offerings and enhancing brand recognition [3]

美国三位共和党议员希望马斯克当众议院议长。 美国国会周二公布临时拨款法案，为联邦政府提供运营资金到明年 3 月。这项法案遭到埃隆·马斯 克（Elon Musk）反对，他在社交媒体上发布 20 多条帖子批评，比如不应该为国会议员加薪等。如 果这项方案在当地时间周五（20 日）没有通过，美国政府部门得不到资金支持，就会停摆。 同时有三位共和党议员在社交媒体上建议马斯克担任众议院议长，"众议院议长不必是国会议员"。 此前特朗普提议马斯克担任美国政府效率部门（DOGE）联合主席，但该部门主要负责提案。如果 马斯克成为众议院议长，他将拥有实权。众议院议长也是美国总统第二顺位继承人，但马斯克不是 美国原生公民，无法担任总统。 ChatGPT 早期奠基者全部离开 OpenAI。 据媒体报道，OpenAI 早期员工阿列克·拉德福德（Alec Radford）从 OpenAI 离职。他参与过 GPT-1 到 GPT-4o 的研发，在 2016 年加入 OpenAI，是最早把 Google 提出的 Transformer 架构用到大规模 语言训练的研究者之一，也是确立了当前大语言模型的训练模式的人之一。"只有阿列克·拉德福德 离 ...