Group 1 - The rise in risk aversion has driven precious metals higher, with spot gold surpassing $4870 per ounce, showing a daily increase of over 2.3%. UBS strategist Joni Teves expects gold prices to have upward momentum in the first half of the year, potentially reaching $5000 per ounce if concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence persist [1] - Silver is benefiting from the rise in gold prices and a narrowing supply-demand gap, with expectations to challenge $100 per ounce this year [1] - The copper market is tightening due to demand from energy transition, leading to an expected increase in price levels [1] Group 2 - As of November, the U.S. unemployment rate has dropped to 4.4%, indicating a temporarily stable labor market, with market expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate cuts from January to April [1] - In the medium to long term, risks related to U.S. federal government debt remain, and the dollar's status is facing challenges, suggesting continued opportunities for gold in the context of a global monetary system restructuring [1] Group 3 - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has risen by 1.76%, with component stocks such as silver and tungsten companies showing significant gains, including a 10.01% increase for silver companies and 9.92% for tungsten companies [1] - The CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index tracks 50 prominent securities in the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 51.65% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Molybdenum [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong upward trend, particularly in the non-ferrous metal sector, with significant gains in related ETFs and stocks [1][5]. Market Performance - As of January 21, the non-ferrous metal sector is showing robust performance, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rising over 2% [1]. - Key stocks in the sector include: - Shandong Gold up 4.54% - Ganfeng Lithium up 3.10% - Northern Rare Earth up 1.63% [2][5]. Commodity Prices - On January 21, COMEX gold and spot gold both surpassed the $4800 mark, each increasing by over 1%, reaching historical highs [3]. - LME copper is also on the rise, currently up by 0.6% [3]. Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Geopolitical tensions are heightening, leading to increased risk aversion in the market [3]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve's political independence is under scrutiny, particularly with Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony [3]. Policy Developments - On January 20, multiple departments introduced an action plan to enhance the linkage between futures and spot markets for non-ferrous metals, aiming to improve the international competitiveness of the "Shanghai price" [3]. Investment Opportunities - Oriental Securities emphasizes the importance of focusing on industrial metals, predicting a strategic opportunity in the copper sector due to supply constraints and improving smelting fees [4]. - The report suggests that the copper market is expected to benefit from a recovery in production from major mines, which could enhance profit margins for smelting companies [4]. Strategic Insights - The current economic climate is characterized by a "spiral down" phase, highlighting copper's strategic importance as a key metal amid global economic shifts [6]. - The demand for copper is expected to surge due to the AI revolution, with projections indicating an additional demand of approximately 79-170 thousand tons by 2030 from data center expansions alone [6]. ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is noted for its high copper content (34%) and gold content (12%), making it a leading choice in the sector [8]. - The ETF has shown superior performance with a cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases [10].

Core Viewpoint - Northern Rare Earth's stock price has shown a significant increase, with a year-to-date rise of 9.80% and a notable net inflow of funds, indicating strong market interest and potential growth in the rare earth sector [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of January 21, Northern Rare Earth's stock price rose by 2.06% to 50.64 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 15.15 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.84%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 1830.67 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 1.63% over the last five trading days and by 11.17% over the past 20 days, while it has decreased by 5.01% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Northern Rare Earth reported a revenue of 302.92 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.41 billion CNY, which is a substantial increase of 280.27% [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of January 10, 2025, the number of shareholders for Northern Rare Earth reached 667,200, an increase of 2.12% from the previous period, with an average of 5,418 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 2.07% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 53.58 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 9.94 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 80.36 million shares, a decrease of 58.33 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Other notable institutional shareholders include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, both of which have seen changes in their holdings, indicating active management and potential shifts in investment strategies [3].

紫金矿业：布局全球黄金、铜等多金属矿产资源开发，核心业务涵盖矿产资源勘查、采选冶炼及深加 工。2025年前三季度营业收入与归母净利润实现同比增长，完成多项海外矿山项目收购交割。 全球"去美元化"趋势深化，各国央行持续增持黄金等贵金属以分散储备风险，中国央行已连续14个月增 持黄金。全球货币宽松预期升温，美元走弱使得以美元计价的贵金属与有色金属吸引力提升。新兴产业 的刚性需求不断释放，光伏、新能源汽车、AI服务器等领域对白银、铜、铝等金属的需求持续增长， 叠加供应端存在的刚性约束，相关金属品种的市场格局正在发生变化。2026年开年，贵金属及有色金属 市场迎来普涨行情，呈现出"金融属性与工业属性共振"的特征，贵金属既受益于全球央行购金与美元信 用质疑引发的金融需求，白银又凭借新兴产业的工业刚需获得额外支撑；有色金属则在传统基建需求平 稳增长的基础上，叠加新能源汽车、储能等新兴产业的刚性需求，形成双重驱动力。 广发证券2026年1月19日发布研报称，当前商品市场多空博弈激烈，看多理由包括全球货币宽松和财政 扩张推动世界主要经济体经济景气度回暖，去美元化背景下商品金融属性重估提速，AI等新产业趋势 带来强劲边际需求， ...

近期，贵金属价格不断走强， 当地时间1月20日，受美国最新的关税威胁影响，美股三大指数大幅下挫。 截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌1.76%；标普500指数跌2.06%；纳斯达克指数跌2.39%。科技股普跌，英伟达 和特斯拉均跌超4%，亚马逊和苹果均跌超3%。 多个金属品种强势上涨 1月20日，全球贵金属市场延续强势，黄金、白银价格再度双双刷新历史纪录。伦敦金现货盘中最高达 到4766.23美元/盎司，年初以来上涨超9%；伦敦银现货盘中最高达到95.457美元/盎司，年初以来上涨超 33%。 国内期货市场同样表现强劲。1月20日，沪金期货主力合约上涨1.99%，收报1060.16元/克；沪银期货主 力合约上涨3.62%，收报23062元/千克。此外，钯金、铂金等其他贵金属品种也普遍收涨。 除了贵金属，工业金属与小金属今年以来亦多数走强。1月20日，碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘涨停，年初 以来累计上涨33.04%；沪锡期货主力合约年初以来累计上涨23.56%，不锈钢与镍期货主力合约累计涨 幅也分别录得8.2%和6.41%。 近期，贵金属价格不断走强，主要受外围市场影响。日前，美国威胁对欧洲多国加征关税，使全球市场 情绪恶化，推 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Performance - The global precious metals market continues to show strength, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs, with gold hitting $4,730.09 per ounce and silver reaching $95.457 per ounce, marking increases of over 9% and 33% respectively since the beginning of the year [1][2] - Domestic futures market also performed strongly, with Shanghai gold futures rising by 1.99% to 1,060.16 yuan per gram and Shanghai silver futures increasing by 3.62% to 23,062 yuan per kilogram [2] - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to external market influences, including U.S. threats of tariffs on European countries, which have heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets [2] Group 2: Performance of Non-Ferrous Metals - Various non-ferrous metals have also seen significant price increases, with lithium carbonate futures reaching a limit-up close and a cumulative increase of 33.04% since the beginning of the year [2] - Other metals such as tin and nickel have recorded increases of 23.56% and 6.41% respectively [2] Group 3: Company Earnings Forecasts - As of January 20, 2025, 16 non-ferrous metal companies have reported earnings forecasts, with 12 companies expecting year-on-year profit growth, and 8 companies showing a profit increase of over 100% [3][4] - Northern Rare Earth, a leading company in the rare earth sector, anticipates a net profit of 2.176 billion to 2.356 billion yuan, representing a growth of 116.67% to 134.6% [3] Group 4: Institutional Interest and Research - 17 non-ferrous metal stocks have attracted institutional attention, with 8 stocks receiving over 10 institutional research visits [5] - Companies like Shengda Resources and Yunnan Geology have outlined future resource acquisition plans during investor meetings, indicating a focus on capital expenditure for mining projects [6] - The total net buy amount from financing for these 17 stocks has reached 1.238 billion yuan, with significant contributions from companies like Zhongjin Lingnan and Yunnan Geology [6]

Core Viewpoint - Several listed companies in the non-ferrous metals industry have released optimistic performance forecasts for 2025, driven by product price increases and production growth, reflecting a positive outlook for the sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - Zijin Mining Group expects a net profit of 51 billion to 52 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 59% to 62%, supported by increased production and sales prices of gold, copper, and silver [1]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining anticipates a net profit of 3 billion to 3.2 billion yuan for 2025, representing a growth of 70% to 81%, with gold production expected to be approximately 14.4 tons and sales prices rising by about 49% [2]. - Northern Rare Earth forecasts a net profit of 2.176 billion to 2.356 billion yuan for 2025, a significant increase of 116.67% to 134.60%, driven by new technologies and products [2]. - Jinchuan Magnetics expects a net profit of 660 million to 760 million yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 127% to 161%, attributed to record high product sales in various applications [2]. - Xianglu Tungsten Industry predicts a net profit of 125 million to 180 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses, supported by rising tungsten prices and increased sales orders [3]. - Huayou Cobalt anticipates a net profit of 5.85 billion to 6.45 billion yuan for 2025, a growth of 40.80% to 55.24%, benefiting from improved production and cost management [3]. - Luoyang Molybdenum expects a net profit of 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth of 47.80% to 53.71%, driven by increased production and effective cost control [4]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The positive performance forecasts are attributed to multiple factors, including government policy support, improved supply-demand dynamics, and strategic upgrades by companies [4]. - Emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles, power batteries, energy storage, and artificial intelligence are expected to drive sustained demand for non-ferrous metals, particularly lithium, nickel, rare earths, and tungsten [4].

格隆汇1月20日｜西部证券研报指出，25年北方稀土预计实现归母净利润21.76-23.56亿元，同比 +116.67%-134.60%，25Q4预计实现归母净利润6.35-8.15亿元，同比+6.01%-36.06%，环比 +4.10%-33.61%。Q4业绩同环比高增主要来自稀土价格大幅上涨。行业方面，25年全年稀土行业景气度 大幅提升，氧化镨钕价格走高。公司方面，25年北方稀土依托国内稳定的市场需求，积极推进创新、人 才、产业升级和管理改革，整体经营质量稳步提升，为业绩大幅增长打下了坚实基础。稀土行业景气度 提升，预计下游订单需求持续增长，公司业绩有望受益，故维持"增持"评级。 ...

Price Trends - The latest price of praseodymium oxide as of January 19 is 672,500 million yuan per ton [2][4] - The price has increased by 8.03% over the last 10 days [2][4] - The price has risen by 13.50% over the last 15 days [2][4] - The price has grown by 14.96% over the last 30 days [2][4] - The price has surged by 19.56% over the last 60 days [2][4] Related Companies - Key producers in the praseodymium oxide market include Northern Rare Earth (600111), China Minmetals Rare Earth (000758), China Rare Earth (000831), and Shenghe Resources (600392) [2][4]

Core Viewpoint - The data indicates significant outflows of main funds from various stocks, particularly in the communication equipment and renewable energy sectors, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Fund Outflows - The top stock with the largest fund outflow is Xinye Technology, with a decrease of 20.21 billion yuan and a drop of 5.01% [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang follows with an outflow of 18.09 billion yuan and a decline of 3.22% [2] - Yangguang Electric Power experienced an outflow of 15.07 billion yuan, with a decrease of 5.25% [2] - Shenghong Technology saw a fund outflow of 14.52 billion yuan and a drop of 5.02% [2] - China Satellite had an outflow of 13.92 billion yuan, with a significant decline of 7.84% [2] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The communication equipment sector is notably affected, with multiple companies like Xinye Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Fenghuo Communication experiencing substantial fund outflows [2][3] - The photovoltaic equipment sector, represented by Yangguang Electric Power and Longi Green Energy, also shows significant outflows, indicating potential challenges in this industry [2][3] - The electronic components sector, including Shenghong Technology and Huadian Co., is facing similar trends with notable fund withdrawals [2][3]