Core Viewpoint - An explosion occurred at the Baogang Steel Plant in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, on January 18, resulting in multiple casualties and injuries, highlighting safety concerns in the steel industry [2][34]. Group 1: Incident Details - The explosion took place at 15:03 on January 18, involving a 650m³ saturated water and steam tank in the steelmaking department [2]. - As of January 19, the incident resulted in 6 fatalities, 4 missing persons, and 84 injuries, with 5 individuals in critical condition [2]. - The Baogang Steel Group, established in 1954, is a significant player in China's steel industry, operating two publicly listed companies [2]. Group 2: Rescue Operations - Professional rescue teams are actively engaged in searching for the missing individuals and providing assistance to the injured [3][34]. - The rescue efforts are complicated by severe weather conditions, including a temperature drop of 8-10°C, with lows reaching -33°C [10][34].

Group 1 - Spot gold has surpassed the $4,700 mark, reaching a new historical high [1] - The performance of the non-ferrous mining sector is strong, with several companies reporting impressive earnings forecasts for 2025 [3] - North Rare Earth expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.176 billion to 2.356 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 116.67% to 134.60% [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum anticipates a net profit of 20 billion to 20.8 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 47.80% to 53.71% [3] Group 2 - The non-ferrous mining ETF is seen as a strategic asset under the restructuring of the international order, with long-term value and structural opportunities highlighted [4] - The ETF tracks the non-ferrous metal mining index, focusing on upstream resources, with key metals like gold, copper, and aluminum making up nearly 60% of its weight [4] - The index tracked by the ETF has seen a one-year increase of 119.65% and a ten-year cumulative increase of 206.51%, outperforming mainstream non-ferrous indices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, with the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) showing a net inflow of funds and a significant increase in its scale, indicating ongoing investor interest in this sector [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of 11:10 AM, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is down by 1.96%, but has seen a net subscription of 37 million units, amounting to over 68 million yuan [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF has recorded net inflows on four occasions, totaling 449 million yuan, with the latest fund size exceeding 5.8 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector is under pressure, with key stocks like Northern Rare Earth and Huayou Cobalt experiencing declines of over 3% and 2% respectively [5]. - The sector's performance is influenced by geopolitical tensions and market uncertainties, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which have recently reached new highs [2]. Group 3: Strategic Opportunities - Analysts from Dongfang Securities are focusing on strategic opportunities within the industrial metals sector, particularly copper, which is expected to benefit from supply constraints and improving smelting fees [3]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and the demand for strategic metals are expected to enhance copper's position as a critical asset in the current economic landscape [4]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its high "gold and copper content," with copper accounting for 34% and gold for 12% of its index, making it a leading choice among similar funds [8]. - The ETF's performance has been driven by earnings rather than valuation, with a significant increase in its index's cumulative return of 99.61% since 2022, while its price-to-earnings ratio has decreased by 52% over the same period [11].

稀有金属概念股早盘大幅走低，西部超导跌超5%，北方稀土、洛阳钼业、盛和资源跌超4%。 受盘面影响，稀有金属ETF跌超3%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 现价 | | 涨跌 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 562800 | 稀有金属ETF | 1.013 | -0.036 | -3.43% | | 561800 | 稀有金属ETF基金 | 1.081 | -0.038 | -3.40% | | 159671 | 稀有金属ETF基金 | 1.420 | -0.048 | -3.27% | | 159608 | 稀有金属ETF | 1.165 | -0.039 | -3.24% | 在券商看来，战略小金属储量有限、开采难度大且供给弹性不足，同时新能源、半导体、军工等下游需求快速增长，供需 矛盾加剧。在资源稀缺性持续凸显、需求结构升级及政策调控下，未来稀有金属价格有望延续上行趋势，具备资源储量优 势、技术壁垒及合规出口渠道的企业将持续受益。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a collective pullback in major indices, with significant declines in copper and gold prices, while emerging sectors like AI data centers are driving long-term demand for non-ferrous metals [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 20, 2026, major indices have collectively retreated, with copper prices experiencing a sharp drop and gold prices slightly declining [1]. - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), fell by 0.2%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 2.31%, and the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) dropped by 2.34% [1]. - The trading volume was active, with a turnover of 216 million yuan and a turnover rate of 1.49%, indicating potential fund accumulation [1]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Demand Drivers - Non-ferrous metal ETFs have seen continuous net inflows over the past 18 days, totaling 10.774 billion yuan [1]. - Emerging fields like AI data centers are becoming core demand drivers for non-ferrous metals, with significant reliance on copper and aluminum for power and cooling systems [1]. - The demand for copper and aluminum is expected to be supported in the long term due to "AI capital expenditure growth" and global energy transition trends [1]. Group 3: Industrial Product Price Dynamics - According to Dongfang Securities, market expectations for short-term interest rate cuts have been dampened following statements from Trump, leading to weakened financial support for industrial product prices [2]. - Increased domestic inventory and lower downstream processing rates have contributed to negative feedback for major industrial products like copper and aluminum [2]. - Despite short-term volatility, strong support for industrial products is anticipated due to internal and external policy expectations, with some inventories at historically low levels [2]. Group 4: ETF Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Non-ferrous Metal Industry Theme Index (000811) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 52.98% of the index [2].

1月16日晚，北方稀土披露2025年度业绩预增公告。公告显示，经公司财务部门初步测算，预计2025年 度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为21.76亿元到23.56亿元，同比增长116.67%至134.60%。公司预 计，2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为19.6亿元至21.4亿元，同比增长 117.46%到137.43%。作为全球最大的稀土企业集团和产业基地，北方稀土2025年业绩翻倍，成为稀土 行业高质量发展的缩影。 中信证券认为，全球稀土资源战略地位持续提升，稀土产业进入高质量发展新时代。供给层面，配额管 制叠加管制政策，刚性逻辑或持续加强；需求层面，新能源汽车、人形机器人和低空经济等新兴领域有 望成为需求长期高速增长的核心驱动，预计2026年起全球稀土供需缺口或持续扩大，稀土价格或稳中有 进，产业链盈利能力或持续提升。 截至2026年1月20日 10:18，有色金属ETF(512400)盘中换手3.28%，成交持续放量达11.47亿元。截至1月 19日，有色金属ETF(512400)近11天获得连续资金净流入。 消息面上，1月19日，国际黄金市场迎来历史性突破，现货黄金日内大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth market is experiencing high demand and prices, significantly boosting the performance of the industry leader, Northern Rare Earth (600111.SH) [1][4]. Financial Performance - Northern Rare Earth expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.176 billion to 2.356 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 116.67% to 134.60% [2]. - The company anticipates a non-net profit of 1.96 billion to 2.14 billion yuan, with a growth of 117.46% to 137.43% [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company projects revenues of 9.287 billion yuan, 9.579 billion yuan, and 11.43 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 61.19%, 32.52%, and 33.32% respectively [2]. - The net profit for the first three quarters is expected to be 431 million yuan, 501 million yuan, and 610 million yuan, with staggering growth rates of 727.3%, 7622.51%, and 69.48% respectively [2]. Market Dynamics - The company has raised the trading price of rare earth concentrates for six consecutive quarters, with the price set at 26,834 yuan per ton (excluding tax) for the first quarter of 2026, marking a cumulative increase of over 60% [1][4]. - The price of rare earth concentrates fell from 31,030 yuan per ton in Q2 2023 to 16,741 yuan per ton in Q1 2024, but has since entered a recovery phase [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Northern Rare Earth is focusing on multi-dimensional benchmarking to drive cost reduction across all processes, achieving significant cost savings [3]. - The company is advancing key project constructions and transitioning towards high-end, intelligent, and green operations [5]. - The company has successfully entered the CSI A50 Index and returned to the SSE 50 Index, maintaining its position as the market leader in the rare earth industry [5].

北方稀土2025年以来涨幅超过140%，公司是全球最大稀土企业集团和稀土产业基地，主要生产经营稀 土原料产品、稀土功能材料产品及部分稀土终端应用产品。 稀土价格上涨，与上游原材料现货供应紧张价格上调有很大关系。1月9日，国内两大稀土巨头北方稀土 与包钢股份双双公告，对2026年第一季度稀土精矿交易价格进行调涨，调整后的价格为不含税26834元/ 吨（干量，REO=50%）。这是自2024年三季度起，稀土精矿交易价格连续第6次上调。 近年来，上游稀土产业经历了集团整合，强化了国内稀土行业集中度，稀土开采和冶炼分离指标也在稳 步释放。根据工信部及中信证券的预测，2023年，我国稀土开采矿量为25.5万吨，冶炼分离产量24.4万 吨。预测2030年国内稀土开采量52.1万吨，冶炼分离产量51.9万吨。从全球来看，预计2030年全球稀土 供应量为68.1万吨。 从需求来看，中信建投表示，预计2026年全球新能源汽车产量将增长至超2600万辆，对应钕铁硼永磁材 料需求量将达到6.6万吨，汽车领域对钕铁硼总需求量接近8万吨。与此同时，包括汽车以及工业电机、 风力发电、工业机器人、人形机器人、节能电梯、变频空调、生活用品在 ...

Major Events - Hualing Cable announced the termination of the acquisition of control over Xingxin Aerospace due to failure to reach consensus on specific agreement terms, stating that this decision will not adversely affect its operations or financial status [1] - Xianglu Tungsten Industry expects a net profit of 125 million to 180 million yuan for 2025, driven by continuous price increases in tungsten raw materials and improved market conditions [1] Company Announcements - Zhongwei Semiconductor is set to launch its first non-volatile memory chip, a low-power SPI NOR Flash with a capacity of 4M bits, filling a product gap in the Flash sector [2] - Nanshan Aluminum plans to invest approximately 437 million USD in a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia [4] - Xinfengming intends to acquire a 35% stake in Dushan Port Development to enhance its supply chain capabilities [5] - Jiangxi Copper signed a cooperation framework agreement with China Ordnance Material Group for the purchase and sale of copper and nickel products [6] Performance Forecasts - Wan Tong Development expects a net loss of 500 million to 750 million yuan for 2025, attributed to strategic shifts and increased impairment losses [12] - Hunan YN anticipates a net profit of 1.15 billion to 1.4 billion yuan for 2025, driven by growth in lithium battery materials [13] - Tianjian Technology forecasts a net loss of 176 million to 250 million yuan for 2025, with potential delisting risk due to financial performance [14] - Leading companies like Guotou Securities and Xiangcai Securities project significant profit growth for 2025, with Guotou expecting 3.42 billion yuan, a 35.18% increase [27][28] Industry Trends - The tungsten market is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, benefiting companies like Xianglu Tungsten [1] - The photovoltaic industry continues to face challenges, with companies like Trina Solar projecting substantial losses due to market pressures [19] - The aluminum sector is seeing investment growth, particularly in overseas projects, as indicated by Nanshan Aluminum's plans [4] Stock Movements - Hualing Cable's stock will not be adversely affected by the termination of the acquisition [1] - Companies like Hunan YN and Guotou Securities are expected to see positive stock performance due to favorable profit forecasts [13][27]

Group 1 - The company, Northern Rare Earth, has confirmed its export business to EU member countries, primarily focusing on lanthanum and cerium products [2] - The sales method employed by the company is direct export [2]