有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 与其为过去防守，不如向未来布局 ——有色钢铁行业周观点（2025 年第 42 周） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 宏观经济增速放缓；关税影响需求与产业链稳定性；原料价格波动；中美关系变化。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | --- | --- | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | ⚫ 部分投资者的观点：为保护今年盈利，仓位配置与板块选择偏向保守。上周（2025 年 10 月 13 日-17 日）由于中美关系短期持续紧张，以及今年是过去四年权益投资 收益较为显著的一年，部分投资者为保护全年投资收益，计划在今年剩余的时间内 仓位配置与板 ...

资金流向方面，业绩预计翻倍股中，近5日主力资金净流入较多的有光库科技、远大智能、雅化集团， 资金净流入金额分别为25612.48万元、15579.42万元、10800.03万元。主力资金净流出金额较高的有北 方稀土、长川科技、瑞芯微，资金净流出金额分别为485708.01万元、165195.76万元、86067.27万元。 （数据宝） 前三季度业绩预计暴增股名单 已有133家公司公布了前三季度业绩预告，业绩预增公司有107家，占比80.45%。 证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至10月21日，已经有133家公司公布了前三季度业绩预告。业绩预告类型 显示，预增公司107家、预盈8家，合计报喜公司比例为86.47%；业绩预降、预亏公司分别有12家、3 家。 业绩预喜公司中，以预计净利润增幅中值统计，共有48家公司净利润增幅超100%；净利润增幅在 50%~100%的有42家。具体到个股看，先达股份预计净利润增幅最高。公司预计前三季度实现净利润增 幅中值为3009.81%；楚江新材、英联股份预计前三季度净利润同比增幅中值分别为2150.09%、 1602.05%，增幅位列第二、第三。 分行业看，前三季度业绩增幅预计翻倍 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in various sectors, with growth in technology and healthcare industries while traditional sectors face challenges [4][5][12] - The macroeconomic environment shows a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters, indicating a stable economic backdrop [7] - The report suggests that the A-share market is experiencing a phase of consolidation with structural opportunities emerging, particularly in technology and consumer sectors [6][8] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,863.89, with a slight increase of 0.63%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.98% to 12,813.21 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 15.74 and 46.77, respectively, indicating a favorable long-term investment environment [6][10] - Trading volume in the A-share market remains robust, with a daily average exceeding 17,000 billion, suggesting strong investor interest [6][10] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, with a notable decline in certain sub-sectors such as prepared foods and health products [12][14] - The semiconductor industry is on an upward trajectory, with a 13.86% increase in September, driven by strong demand for AI-related hardware [19][20] - The telecommunications sector is seeing growth in 5G services, with a significant increase in mobile data usage and a focus on digital transformation in key industries [23][24] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as soft drinks, health products, and baked goods within the food and beverage industry for potential investment opportunities [14][39] - In the semiconductor space, companies involved in AI infrastructure and storage solutions are highlighted as key areas for investment due to rising demand [21][26] - The telecommunications sector is advised for investment, particularly in companies that are leveraging AI and digital technologies to enhance service offerings [26][27]

进入 阿波罗 长廊后，窃贼们用 角磨机威胁了警卫 ，并开始切割两个装有拿破仑时期和王室珠宝的陈列柜，劫掠了包括一枚属于拿破仑三世 (Napoleon III)之妻欧仁妮王后(Empress Eugénie)的大型镶钻蝴蝶结胸针在内的多件珠宝。然后，窃贼们以与闯入时同样快的速度离开，骑 着 两辆摩托车 沿塞纳河(Seine River)畔的道路逃离。 他们进出该长廊的时间不到七分钟。 好了，说正事，今天公布了9月经济数据，其中三季度GDP同比增长4.8%放缓至一年低点。前三季度累计GDP同比增长达5.2%，表现稳 健。若第四季度维持约4.5%的同比增速，则足以确保全年实现"5%左右"的增长目标。 鉴于此， 花旗认为四季度不会再有政策利率下调或 降准操作，政策重点预计将转向财政与准财政政策的落实。 A股复盘 | 风格切换基础尚不牢固 / 2025.10.20 市场好无聊啊，一句话总结：高开必卖！光通信是因为海外大客户上修2026年1.6T光模块采购计划，部分客户提前锁定明年产能。 这个我 周报里没写到， 我跪键盘 先来说说这个卢浮宫被抢事件吧！我仔细看了WSJ的报道，深感"国外比较乱套"这句话的预言性！ 当地时间 ...

| 证券代 | 证券简称 | 主力资金净流出 | 主力资金净流出金额 | 主力资金净流出比例 | 累计涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 码 | | 天数 | （亿元） | （%） | （%） | | 300059 | 东方财富 | 9 | 92.21 | 9.59 | -9.28 | | 600111 | 北方稀土 | 5 | 48.57 | 7.15 | -9.54 | | 688981 | 中芯国际 | 5 | 47.77 | 9.08 | -10.14 | | 002460 | 赣锋锂业 | 7 | 39.42 | 7.41 | -9.38 | | 601727 | 上海电气 | 7 | 36.69 | 7.73 | -11.75 | | 300803 | 指南针 | 9 | 35.02 | 7.45 | -14.69 | | 002602 | ST华通 | 11 | 33.16 | 9.88 | -21.17 | | 600010 | 包钢股份 | 5 | 25.56 | 6.31 | -4.66 | | 603799 | 华友钴业 | 5 | ...

长沙晚报掌上长沙10月19日讯（全媒体记者 刘军）截至19日，A股市场稀土永磁板块上已有8家公司发 布三季报预告且全部预喜，多家公司前三季度净利润增幅在100%以上。记者发现，该板块上有3只湘 股，虽然目前都没有发布三季报预告，但3只个股的股价今年以来都已经大涨。 发布了三季报业绩预告的8只个股分别为中科三环、盛和资源、北方稀土、广晟有色、领益智造、横店 东磁、金力永磁、有研新材。 北方稀土预计今年前三季度实现净利润15.1亿元到15.7亿元，同比增长272.54%到287.34%。公司全力保 障原料产品供应，以市场需求为导向，深化营销模式创新，强化营销运作，多措并举积极消化库存，冶 炼分离、稀土金属、稀土功能材料、永磁电机等主要产品产销量同比实现不同幅度增长。 中科三环预计今年前三季度净利润为8000万元—1亿元，同比增长290.24%～337.79%。公司采取稳中求 进、以进促稳的经营方针，积极应对各类突发事件和风险，持续开展技术创新和管理优化，采取降本增 效、降费增率等有效措施，努力开拓市场。通过全体员工的共同努力，公司经营业绩同比取得了较大幅 度的增长。 盛和资源预计今年前三季度实现归属于上市公司股东 ...

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price increased by 2.41% to $10,624.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% to 84,400 yuan per ton [1][12] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 0.55 thousand tons to 17.75 thousand tons due to weak downstream consumption and replenishment of imported sources [1][12] - The operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises rose to 62.5%, up 19.06% week-on-week, but down 16.39% year-on-year, indicating a recovery post-holiday but still below pre-holiday levels [1][12] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.82% to $2,796.00 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.33% to 20,900 yuan per ton [2][13] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 2.3 thousand tons, indicating a slight recovery in demand [2][13] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises remained stable at 62.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% [2][13] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 7.65% to $4,344.30 per ounce, influenced by U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical risks [3][14] - SPDR gold holdings increased by 17.46 tons to 1,034.62 tons, reflecting increased demand amid market uncertainties [3][14] - The U.S. government shutdown has led to delays in key economic data releases, impacting the economy and the dollar's position [3][14] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 9.01% to 507,100 yuan per ton, with expectations of price recovery due to overseas replenishment [4][32] - The strategic importance of rare earths has increased due to regulatory changes, with a positive outlook for major companies in the sector [4][32] - The implementation of new regulations is expected to gradually show positive effects on supply and pricing [4][32] Group 5: Antimony - Antimony price decreased by 4.08%, but demand is expected to recover due to the stabilization of photovoltaic glass production [4][33] - The implementation of stricter standards for flame-retardant cables may provide a demand boost for antimony [4][33] - Global antimony prices are expected to trend upward due to resource scarcity and reduced supply from major mines [4][33] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.63% to 73,100 yuan per ton, while lithium hydroxide decreased by 0.43% to 78,200 yuan per ton [5][60] - Total lithium carbonate production increased to 21,100 tons, reflecting a slight recovery in supply [5][60] - Strong demand from the energy storage sector is expected to support lithium prices despite recent supply increases [5][60] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price increased by 9% to 381,000 yuan per ton, driven by tight supply conditions [5][61] - The market is characterized by a "price without market" phenomenon, with strong upward pressure on prices due to raw material shortages [5][61] - Future price increases are anticipated as supply constraints from Congo continue to affect the market [5][61] Group 8: Nickel - LME nickel price increased by 0.1% to $15,200 per ton, while Shanghai nickel price decreased by 0.6% to 121,200 yuan per ton [5][62] - Concerns over the stability of nickel ore supply due to regulatory changes in Indonesia are providing short-term support for prices [5][62] - The market is expected to remain volatile due to the interplay between supply disruptions and weak fundamentals [5][62]

Core Points - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47% this week, with only four industries showing gains, notably banking and coal, which rose by 4.89% and 4.17% respectively [1] - The electronic and media sectors experienced the largest declines, with drops of 7.14% and 6.27% respectively [1] - The total net outflow of capital from the two markets reached 301.74 billion yuan, with only two sectors seeing net inflows: banking (24.19 billion yuan) and coal (2.67 billion yuan) [1] Industry Performance - The banking sector had a weekly increase of 4.89% with a net inflow of 24.19 billion yuan [2] - The coal industry also performed well, increasing by 4.17% with a net inflow of 2.67 billion yuan [2] - The electronic industry faced the largest capital outflow, totaling 700.79 billion yuan, followed by the power equipment sector with 416.92 billion yuan [2] Non-Metal Industry Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline of 3.07% this week, with a net outflow of 326.17 billion yuan [2] - Within this sector, 30 out of 137 stocks increased, with notable gains from Xinlaifu (49.84%), Baiyin Nonferrous (28.54%), and Antai Technology (19.20%) [2] - Conversely, 107 stocks declined, with Jiangnan New Materials, Bowei Alloys, and Huaxi Nonferrous experiencing the largest drops of 15.31%, 13.34%, and 12.71% respectively [2] Capital Flow in Non-Ferrous Metals - In the non-ferrous metals sector, 15 stocks had net inflows, with China Aluminum leading at 2.12 billion yuan, followed by Shanjin International and Western Gold with 1.58 billion yuan and 1.48 billion yuan respectively [3] - A total of 59 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with North Rare Earth, Ganfeng Lithium, and Zijin Mining seeing the largest outflows of 3.756 billion yuan, 2.747 billion yuan, and 2.100 billion yuan respectively [3][4]

2020-2025年1-4月中国十种有色金属产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：紫金矿业（601899）,洛阳钼业（603993）,中国铝业（601600）,北方稀土（600111）,江西铜 业（600362）,云南铜业（000878）,驰宏锌锗（600497）,中金黄金（600489）,西部矿业（601168）,盛 和资源（600392） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国有色金属冶炼和压延加工行业市场动态分析及未来趋势 研判报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年4月中国十种有色金属产量为676万吨，同比增长3.1%；2025年1-4月 中国十种有色金属累计产量为2660万吨，累计增长2.3%。 ...

行业人士认为，作为高端制造与战略性新兴产业的核心资源，稀土资源安全正上升至国家安全体系的核 心维度，主要产品市场需求整体向好、产品价格持续上涨，稀土产业链有望进入高质量发展新时代。 来源：@究竟视频微博 #稀土产业链公司业绩爆发#【#多家稀土产业链公司业绩将翻倍#】稀土产业链公司业绩正迎来爆发增 长。继北方稀土（600111.SH）、盛和资源（600392.SH）、金力永磁（300748.SZ）等龙头企业预告前 三季度净利润翻倍后，广晟有色（600259.SH）昨晚也加入报喜队列，预计前三季度净利润扭亏为盈。 ...