有色、钢铁行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 对美出口环比大增，稀土价格有望回暖 ——稀土行业动态跟踪 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 风险提示 稀土磁材行业出口政策变化、下游需求不及预期、假设条件变化影响测算结果 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色、钢铁行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 09 日 看好（维持） | 刘洋 | 执业证书编号：S0860520010002 | | --- | --- | | | 香港证监会牌照：BTB487 | | | liuyang3@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 李一涛 | 执业证书编号：S0860124120001 | | --- | --- | | | liyitao@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 工业金属的超级周期或已来临：—有色钢 | 2025-12-08 | | --- | --- | | 铁行业周观点（2025 年第 49 周） | | | LME 仓单大幅注销推升供给担忧，继续看 | 2025-12-05 | | 好铜价与冶炼费齐升 | | | 金铜的跨年行情或将展开 ...

（来源：你好北方稀土） 年初以来，北方稀土磁材公司认真贯彻落实各级保密会议精神，持续推进保密管理体系建设，不断强化 全员保密意识，加强技术防范，筑牢企业安全防线，为企业生产经营工作有序开展提供坚实保障。 加强组织领导 压实保密责任体系 该公司坚持用制度管人、按规程办事，并通过严格的监督检查，确保各项保密规定不折不扣执行。加强 制度落实，根据国家最新保密法规和企业实际，对各级保密制度进行系统学习，并结合真实案例以及日 常工作中常见问题和注意事项进行系统梳理和风险提示；强化监督检查，在接受上级保密检查的基础 上，不定期对各部门进行保密检查，对发现的隐患问题在早例会进行通报，限期整改并跟踪复查，形成 管理闭环。 深化宣传教育 筑牢全员思想防线 该公司将"保密无小事"的理念内化于心、外化于行，通过多形式、分层次宣传教育，全面增强职工保密 意识和技能。深入学习保密知识，积极参加包钢（集团）公司组织的保密专题实践培训，内容涵盖保密 法律法规、网络安全知识和日常操作规范，确保涉密人员知悉保密要求，掌握防范技能；将保密学习纳 入党委理论学习中心组及党支部"三会一课"计划，重点解读《中华人民共和国保守国家秘密法实施条 例》及新 ...

日前，上海证券交易所发布《关于上证50、上证180、上证380等指数定期调整结果的公告》。公告显 示，根据指数规则，经指数专家委员会审议，上海证券交易所拟将北方稀土(600111.SH)等多只股票调 入上证50指数成分股，调整情况将于2025年12月12日收市后生效。值得注意的是，这是北方稀土在2025 年年内第二次跻身核心宽基指数——此前公司已成功纳入中证A50指数，成为年内同时斩获两大核心指 数"入场券"的稀缺战略资源标的，其投资价值与行业龙头地位得到资本市场高度认可。 在新质生产力加速发展的背景下，北方稀土的战略价值愈发凸显。作为全球稀土产业链的关键枢纽，公 司背靠白云鄂博矿这一国内稀土核心资源，原料供应稳定且成本可控。背靠资源优势，政策红利与技术 壁垒共同构筑起公司的双重护城河。2024年10月施行的《稀土管理条例》以行政立法形式覆盖稀土全产 业链，有效遏制稀土行业内的非法开采、无序竞争等乱象，推动稀土产业从"资源粗放输出"向"高质量 合规发展"转型;2025年10月商务部对稀土相关技术实施出口管制，11月稀土新政明确"合规即放行"原 则，既守住国家战略资源安全底线，又强化了中国在全球稀土市场的定价权 ...

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and rare earths, indicating high market activity and potential for growth [12][33][34]. Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton on LME, with domestic prices rising by 6.12% to 92,800 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and high demand [1][13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton on LME, with domestic prices up 3.4% to 22,300 yuan per ton, reflecting stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [2][14]. - Gold prices decreased by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical risks and market volatility, while SPDR gold holdings increased [3][15]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, rose by 2.79%, with expectations of increased demand due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][34]. - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the outlook remains positive due to anticipated recovery in exports [4][35]. - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, supported by low inventory levels and supply disruptions in Indonesia and Myanmar [4][36]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 4.38% to $11,665.00 per ton, with domestic prices at 92,800 yuan per ton [1][13]. - Supply constraints are evident with a decrease in copper inventory and processing fees [1][13]. - Downstream demand is weakening due to high prices, leading to a decline in new orders [1][13]. Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.24% to $2,900.50 per ton, with domestic prices at 22,300 yuan per ton [2][14]. - Inventory levels remain stable, but processing rates have decreased slightly [2][14]. - Demand is cautious due to high prices affecting transaction volumes [2][14]. Precious Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.87% to $4,227.7 per ounce, with geopolitical factors influencing market dynamics [3][15]. - SPDR gold holdings increased, indicating a slight uptick in investor interest [3][15]. Rare Earths - Praseodymium-neodymium oxide prices increased by 2.79%, with expectations of higher demand due to supply constraints [4][34]. - Export conditions are improving, contributing to a positive outlook for the sector [4][34]. Antimony - Antimony prices decreased by 1.79%, but the long-term outlook remains optimistic due to potential export recovery [4][35]. Tin - Tin prices increased by 4.70%, driven by low inventory levels and supply disruptions [4][36].

证券之星消息，12月5日，全指材料（000987）指数报收于4681.4点，涨2.13%，成交1256.67亿元，换手 率1.57%。当日该指数成份股中，上涨的有137家，国际复材以20.03%的涨幅领涨，下跌的有24家，多氟 多以2.46%的跌幅领跌。 全指材料（000987）指数十大成份股详情如下： | 证券代码 | 股票简称 | 权重 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | 总市值(亿元) | | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | sh601899 | 紫金矿业 | 11.36% | 31.32 | 2.05% | | 8324.09 | 有色金属 | | sh600309 | 万华化学 | 3.05% | 69.98 | 3.40% | | 2190.70 | 基础化工 | | sh603993 | 洛阳辑业 | 2.75% | 18.42 | 2.90% | | 3940.83 | 有色金属 | | sh600111 | 北方稀土 | 2.75% | 47.33 | 1.44% | | 1711.01 | 有色金属 | | sz ...

财达证券指出，铜铝期货价格在近期表现强势，新能源车、算力中心、美欧电网更新等因素，对铜铝需 求有望产生显著的增量。从实际经营看，相关板块的盈利能力也正在改善。工业金属板块可能正面临较 为长期的投资机会。 有色ETF基金紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色金属行业上市公 司的整体收益表现，向市场提供细分行业的指数化投资标的。 数据显示，截至2025年11月28日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业 (601899)、洛阳钼业(603993)、北方稀土(600111)、华友钴业(603799)、中国铝业(601600)、赣锋锂业 (002460)、中金黄金(600489)、山东黄金(600547)、天齐锂业(002466)、云铝股份(000807)，前十大权重 股合计占比52.34%。 截至2025年12月5日 10:37，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)强势上涨1.10%，成分股中孚实业(600595)上 涨8.21%，南山铝业(600219)上涨6.72%， ...

Market Overview - The Investment Clock Index (399391) closed at 3348.4 points, down 0.13%, with a trading volume of 67.987 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.74% [1] - Among the index constituents, 28 stocks rose while 71 stocks fell, with China High-Tech leading the gainers at an 8.25% increase and Xi'an Catering leading the decliners with a 5.74% drop [1] Top Constituents - The top ten constituents of the Investment Clock Index include: - Kweichow Moutai (16.68% weight) at 1423.98 yuan, down 0.36% [1] - China Merchants Bank (15.74% weight) at 43.22 yuan, up 0.49% [1] - Zijin Mining (7.34% weight) at 30.69 yuan, up 2.40% [1] - Wuliangye (5.26% weight) at 114.45 yuan, down 0.99% [1] - Hengrui Medicine (4.84% weight) at 61.25 yuan, up 0.46% [1] - Gree Electric Appliances (4.03% weight) at 40.94 yuan, up 0.32% [1] - Yili Industrial (3.04% weight) at 28.99 yuan, down 0.96% [1] - Northern Rare Earth (2.49% weight) at 46.66 yuan, down 1.19% [1] - Fuyao Glass (2.35% weight) at 63.82 yuan, down 1.25% [1] - Luzhou Laojiao (2.31% weight) at 127.71 yuan, down 3.76% [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the Investment Clock Index constituents totaled 3.827 billion yuan, while speculative funds saw a net inflow of 1.326 billion yuan and retail investors had a net inflow of 2.502 billion yuan [1] - Detailed capital flow for specific stocks includes: - China High-Tech with a net inflow of 1.30 billion yuan from main funds [2] - Yunnan Copper with a net inflow of 85.73 million yuan from main funds [2] - Weichai Power with a net inflow of 82.78 million yuan from main funds [2]

Wind数据显示，12月4日，当日主力资金净流出额排名前十个股包括道明光学、实达集团、贵州茅台、 华映科技、蓝色光标、北方稀土、长盈精密、工业富联、中国铝业、广和通。资金净流出额均超3亿 元，其中，道明光学资金净流出额最高，为8.47亿元。从申万二级行业分类来看，白酒、小金属、航海 装备板块资金净流出最多，分别为14.75亿元、10.41亿元、9.28亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to rise, driven by factors such as a weakening dollar, supply concerns, and tight supply in LME registered warehouses, leading to record high copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Non-ferrous metal stocks in the A-share market saw significant gains, with Xiyang Co. rising by 6% and Western Mining increasing by over 5% [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 1.3%, expanding its year-to-date increase to 82% [1] - The ETF has experienced a net inflow of 325 million yuan over the past five days [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - LME copper prices reached $11,540 per ton, the highest level since 2013, while Shanghai copper futures surpassed 90,000 yuan per ton, marking a historical peak [1] - The ongoing tight supply of refined copper globally, particularly in non-American regions, is contributing to upward price pressure [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metal ETF is the only one tracking the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index, with a current scale of 16.2 billion yuan, covering key sectors such as copper, aluminum, lithium, rare earths, and gold [1] - Key holdings in the ETF include leading companies in the non-ferrous sector such as Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and China Aluminum [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - With rising premiums for American copper and ongoing supply tightness in non-American regions, there is a bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The anticipated demand from the artificial intelligence sector is expected to provide a broad demand outlook for copper, suggesting potential upward price movement in the short term [1]

Group 1 - As of December 3, the margin trading balance in A-shares is 24,825.92 billion yuan, a decrease of 38.62 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.60% of the A-share circulating market value [1][2] - The margin trading transaction amount on the same day is 1,614.91 billion yuan, an increase of 53.15 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 9.58% of the total A-share transaction amount [1][2] Group 2 - Among the 31 primary industries in Shenwan, 10 industries experienced net financing inflows, with the communication industry leading with a net inflow of 9.27 billion yuan [2] - Other industries with significant net financing inflows include non-ferrous metals, banking, food and beverage, national defense and military industry, and light industry manufacturing [2] Group 3 - A total of 17 stocks received net financing inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with Industrial Fulian leading at 8.17 billion yuan [3] - Other notable stocks with high net financing inflows include China Uranium Industry, Tianfu Communication, ZTE Corporation, Shanghai Hanxun, Tongyu Communication, Huaying Technology, Northern Rare Earth, Jereh Holdings, and Cambridge Technology [3][4]