Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to Chongqing Beer, with a target price of 62.04 CNY, compared to the last closing price of 58.85 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that Chongqing Beer is experiencing weak demand and a slowdown in structural upgrades, with expectations for volume and price recovery [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.063 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.332 billion CNY, a decrease of 0.9% [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 4.202 billion CNY, down 7.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 431 million CNY, down 10.1% year-on-year [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Chongqing Beer are as follows: 2023A: 14,815 million CNY, 2024E: 14,794 million CNY, 2025E: 15,141 million CNY, and 2026E: 15,478 million CNY, with growth rates of 5.53%, -0.14%, 2.35%, and 2.23% respectively [2]. - The net profit forecasts are: 2023A: 1,337 million CNY, 2024E: 1,321 million CNY, 2025E: 1,366 million CNY, and 2026E: 1,423 million CNY, with growth rates of 5.78%, -1.20%, 3.46%, and 4.14% respectively [2]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.76 CNY in 2023, 2.73 CNY in 2024, 2.82 CNY in 2025, and 2.94 CNY in 2026 [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin is expected to be 50.48% in 2022, decreasing to 49.15% in 2023, and projected to recover to 50.33% by 2026 [3]. - The net profit margin is projected to be 9.00% in 2023, slightly increasing to 9.19% by 2026 [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 61.45% in 2022 to 55.36% in 2026 [3]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to be 3,753 million CNY in 2022, decreasing to 3,097 million CNY in 2023, with a recovery to 3,572 million CNY in 2024 [3]. - The cash increase is projected to be 1,231 million CNY in 2022, with a decrease to -697 million CNY in 2023, and a recovery to 1,542 million CNY in 2024 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer (600132) [1] Core Views - The company reported a slight increase in revenue of 0.3% year-on-year for the first three quarters, totaling 13.06 billion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 0.9% to 1.33 billion yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue fell by 7.1% year-on-year to 4.2 billion yuan, and net profit dropped by 10.1% to 430 million yuan, slightly below market expectations [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the gross margin was 49.2%, remaining stable year-on-year. However, in Q3, the gross margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.2%. The decline in high-margin premium beer sales and increased depreciation costs from the new factory contributed to this pressure [3][4] - The company’s sales expense ratio in Q3 was 14.7%, down by 0.9 percentage points, while the management expense ratio increased by 1 percentage point to 3.2%. Overall, the net profit margin in Q3 decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 20.6% [3] Market Demand and Sales - Consumer demand remains weak, with Q3 sales volume down by 5.6% year-on-year to 873,000 tons. The decline is attributed to a weak beer consumption environment and a high base from the previous year. Revenue growth rates for different beer segments in Q3 were -9.2% for premium, -7.6% for mainstream, and +20% for economy beers [2][4] - The average selling price per ton in Q3 fell by 2.4% year-on-year to 4,677 yuan, influenced by the decline in mid-to-high-end beer sales [2] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see a recovery in sales as consumer spending gradually improves. The introduction of new products and the expansion of existing brands are anticipated to enhance revenue and profit margins in the future. The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 2.80 yuan, 2.95 yuan, and 3.14 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 21, 20, and 19 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chongqing Beer (600132) is maintained as "Buy" [3]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's revenue for Q1-Q3 2024 reached 13.063 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.332 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 7.1% year-on-year, with sales volume down by 5.6% to 870,000 kiloliters and average price per ton down by 1.6% to 4,813 yuan, primarily due to weakened consumer spending affecting high-end beer sales [2]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong brand matrix and product innovation capabilities, which are expected to support long-term growth despite current macroeconomic challenges [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a net profit of 431 million yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 10.2%, a decrease of 0.34 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The cost per kiloliter of beer increased by 1.1% year-on-year to 2,446 yuan, but this was an improvement from the previous quarter's increase of 2.1% [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.17%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased depreciation from the new factory in Foshan [2]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for Chongqing Beer to be 2.83 yuan, 2.91 yuan, and 3.03 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 22, 21, and 20 times based on the closing price of 61.99 yuan per share on November 5, 2024 [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for 2024 is estimated at 14.806 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, followed by a projected growth of 4.1% and 4.4% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 1.367 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.465 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4% [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Beer [2][5] Core Views - The company's total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 13.063 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.26% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.332 billion yuan, down 0.90% year-on-year [2] - The report highlights that the company's economic product growth is leading, with a significant increase in revenue from economic products by 14.84% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] - The gross margin remains stable at 49.20% for the first three quarters of 2024, despite a slight decline in Q3 due to rising raw material prices and depreciation from new capacity [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 4.202 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.11% year-on-year, and a net profit of 431 million yuan, down 10.10% year-on-year [2] - The beer sales volume for the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.657 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 0.20%, with an average price of 4.78 yuan per liter, down 0.62% year-on-year [3] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.17%, a decrease of 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to raw material price increases [4] Regional Performance - Revenue from different regions in the first three quarters of 2024 showed varied performance, with the Northwest region down 2.50%, the Central region flat, and the South region up 1.13% year-on-year [3] Future Projections - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.325 billion yuan, 1.400 billion yuan, and 1.472 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of -0.85%, 5.66%, and 5.10% [5]

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Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 13.063 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.332 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 4.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, with a net profit of 431 million yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year [3] - The weak demand has put pressure on both volume and price, with Q3 2024 beer revenue down 7.9% to 4.084 billion yuan, and beer sales and average price down 5.6% and 2.4% respectively [3] - The company’s gross margin slightly decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.2% in Q3 2024, with a net profit margin of 10.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company expects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 2.75, 2.85, and 2.93 yuan per share respectively, and maintains a target PE of 20-25 times for 2024, corresponding to a fair value range of 54.94-68.67 yuan [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 13.063 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.332 billion yuan, down 0.9% [3] - Q3 2024 saw a revenue of 4.202 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 431 million yuan, down 10.1% [3] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.2%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [4] Revenue Breakdown - In Q3 2024, revenue from high-end, mainstream, and economy beers decreased by 5.8%, 7.7%, and 12.6% respectively [3] - Revenue from different regions in Q3 2024 showed declines, with the Northwest region down 10.5%, Central region down 5.2%, and Southern region down 9.3% [3] Cost and Profitability - The company’s operating expenses remained stable, with a slight fluctuation in sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios [4] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 10.3%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - The company forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 2.75, 2.85, and 2.93 yuan per share, with a maintained investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a decline in revenue and profit in Q3 2024, with revenue at 4.202 billion yuan, down 7.11% year-on-year, and net profit at 431 million yuan, down 10.10% year-on-year. The decrease is attributed to high base effects from the previous year and weaker demand in the restaurant and nightlife sectors [3][7]. - Despite the current challenges, the company is expected to achieve stable growth in the future, supported by a leading dividend payout ratio in the industry [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 13.063 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.26% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.332 billion yuan, down 0.90% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2024, the company’s sales volume and average price per ton decreased by 5.59% and 1.61% respectively, indicating pressure on both volume and pricing [7]. - The product sales breakdown for Q3 2024 shows high-end, mainstream, and economic products generating sales of 2.362 billion yuan, 1.590 billion yuan, and 132 million yuan respectively, with economic products showing a year-on-year increase of 19.97% [7]. - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 49.17%, a decrease of 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by changes in product mix and increased depreciation from new factory operations [7]. - The company forecasts revenues of 14.878 billion yuan, 15.180 billion yuan, and 15.485 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.324 billion yuan, 1.361 billion yuan, and 1.445 billion yuan [7][8].

国泰君安版权所有发送给上海东方财富金融数据服务有限公司.东财接收研报邮箱.ybjieshou@eastmoney.com p1 股 票 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——3Q24 三季度业绩点评 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2024.11.02 [table_Authors]訾猛(分析师) 021-38676442 zimeng@gtjas.com 登记编号S0880513120002 | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------| | | | | 姚世佳 ( 分析师 ) | | | 021-38676912 | | | yaoshijia@gtjas.com | | | S0880520070001 | | 本报告导读： 业绩低于预期，中高端业务受挫，佛山工厂减值形成短期影响，目前股价对应 2024 年 22X。 投资要点： 公 司 更 新 报 告 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：业绩符合预期，基于对量价假设的调整，我们下调 2024/25/26 年 EPS 盈利预测至 2.72/2.69/2.66 元，原值 2.98/3.19/3.44 元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Chongqing Brewery (600132 SH) [1][3][6] Core Views - Chongqing Brewery's Q3 2024 performance showed a decline in sales volume and product mix pressure [1][4] - The company continues to pursue a premiumization strategy and is actively adapting its products and channels to market conditions [1][5] - The beer industry faces challenges from weak consumer demand and missing consumption scenarios like dining and nightlife [1][5] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 4 202 billion down 7 11% YoY with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 431 million down 10 10% YoY [1][4] - Q3 2024 sales volume was 873 2 thousand kiloliters down 5 6% YoY with average beer price down 2 4% YoY [1][4] - High end mainstream and economy product revenues changed by -9 3% -7 6% and +20 0% YoY respectively in Q3 2024 [1][4] Profitability and Costs - Q3 2024 gross margin decreased by 1 4 percentage points YoY due to product mix pressure and increased depreciation from new factory operations [1][5] - Sales expense ratio decreased by 0 9 percentage points YoY in Q3 2024 with sales expenses narrowing compared to Q2 2024 [1][5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its product matrix to cater to cost effective consumption trends and strengthening non on premise channels and canned products [1][5] - Brand building efforts continue with increasing recognition of brands like Carlsberg and Feng Hua Xue Yue [1][5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024 2026 were revised down to RMB 148 3 150 8 154 4 billion from previous estimates of RMB 153 6 161 2 169 5 billion [1][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 2026 is projected at RMB 13 3 13 6 14 1 billion with EPS of RMB 2 74 2 82 2 92 [1][6] - The current stock price implies PE multiples of 21x 21x and 20x for 2024 2026 respectively [1][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [5][6]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 13.06 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.26%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.9% year-on-year [5][6]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.202 billion yuan, a decline of 7.11% year-on-year, and a net profit of 431 million yuan, down 10.1% year-on-year, indicating that revenue and profit were slightly below expectations [5][6]. - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2024-2026, predicting net profits of 1.472 billion, 1.605 billion, and 1.728 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 10%, 9%, and 8% respectively [6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 58.85 yuan - One-year high/low: 80.00/50.85 yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 16.7 - Dividend yield: 4.76% - Market capitalization: 28,482 million yuan [2]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, beer revenue decreased by 7.9%, with beer sales volume down 5.6% to 873,000 tons. The average price per ton was 4,812.5 yuan, a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year [7][8]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 49.2%, down 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in sales volume and increased costs [8]. - The company’s operating profit for 2024 is projected to be 3.740 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.986 billion yuan [11]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with a forecasted dividend yield of 4.6% based on the 2024 net profit [6]. - The company faces challenges in brand growth due to external pressures, including extreme weather affecting sales in the Chongqing region [7].