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中马联合军演临近,当前军工板块具有较高配置价值
Jianghai Securities· 2025-10-13 12:40
证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2025 年 10 月 13 日 江海证券研究发展部 执业证书编号:S1410524040001 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 0.69 -7.36 4.39 绝对收益 4.76 8.31 21.1 数据来源:聚源 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-国防军工:9.3 阅兵渐行渐近,军工行业中长期布局拐点 已至 – 2025.08.19 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-国防军工:国 际政局动荡背景下,重点关注军贸+国产替 代 – 2025.06.17 IDEX2025 盛大开幕,我国军工企业组团 亮相——注重 AI+机器人带来的行业投资 机遇 – 2025.02.20 4. 江海证券-行业点评报告-国防军工:新 修《军队装备科研条例》发布,军工央企 重组启动——行业将迎来新一轮投资机遇 – 2025.02.17 机械军工行业研究组 分析师:张诗瑶 中马联合军演临近,当前军工板块具有 较高配置价值 事件: 投资建议:我们认为,军工板块在经过前期调整后,已步入企稳反弹阶段。在 "十四五"规划即将收官、"十五五"规划蓄势待发, ...
中美开辟新战线,美国将对中国船舶收取港口服务费,中国率先反制
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-13 11:01
今年4月份,美国贸易代表办公室就挥舞起了"301调查"的大棒,矛头直指咱们的船舶、物流和造船业。他们的理由听起来冠冕堂皇,说中国的造船业搞"内 卷",用低价优势把美国的同行都快挤兑黄了,所以他们必须出手。这不,报复措施就来了,就是这个所谓的"港口服务费"。 第二,这是特朗普"关税经济学"的延续。在特朗普的逻辑里,似乎没有什么问题是加征关税解决不了的。贸易逆差?加关税!制造业回流?加关税!现在, 为了"振兴"那早已空心化的美国造船业,他的第一反应,还是加关税,只不过这次换了个名目,叫"港口服务费"。 第三,也是最阴险的一招,就是逼着全世界选边站队。这个费用不仅针对挂中国旗的船,还可能扩大到中国制造、中国运营,甚至是中国资本参与的船舶。 这样一来,全球的航运公司就得掂量掂量了,你是继续用物美价廉的中国船,然后承担高额的美国港口费,还是跟中国切割,转投又贵又慢的美国或其盟友 的船厂?这就是美国贸易政策背后赤裸裸的战略考量。 这个收费标准是分步走的。从10月14号开始,第一阶段,中国船只每停靠一次,每一净吨就得交50美元。别小看这50美元,一艘远洋货轮动辄几万吨,这一 趟下来就是一笔巨款。但这还没完,明年这个数字还要 ...
从“十年磨一剑”到“一年磨十剑” 中国LNG船建造效率大幅度提升
Yang Shi Xin Wen· 2025-10-13 07:21
大型LNG船,它被称作"海上超级冷冻车",是我国进口液化天然气的主力运输船,而殷瓦钢是建造LNG船的核心材料。"十四五"期间,我国实现了殷瓦钢从 依赖进口到国产化突破的转变,技术突破的背后,有着怎样的故事? 中船集团沪东中华围护系统部作业一区作业长 徐超:我们现在正身处一艘17.4万立方米液化天然气运输船的液货舱内部,这是目前全球市场上性能最先进的 主流船型之一。它的长度大概50米,宽度40米,高度30米,相当于一个10层楼高的厂房。 徐超介绍,LNG船建造难度堪比航母,一艘船仅围护系统就包含300多万个零部件,涉及流体力学、低温材料、自动控制等多个专业领域,在LNG船的建造 中,殷瓦钢焊接被称为"在头发丝上绣花"。这种厚度仅0.7毫米的特种钢材,焊接时误差必须控制在0.1毫米以内。 技术的突破带来了建造效率的大幅度提升。目前,沪东中华建造一艘大型LNG运输船的生产时间由过去的30多个月缩短到了17个月。 中船集团沪东中华工艺技术研究所所长 黄云峰:过去我们沪东人"十年磨一剑",现在我们要"一年磨十剑"。 (总台央视记者 王琰 岳群 崔霞 李宁 徐静) 一艘LNG船的建造,需要发动机、控制系统、特种钢材等上千 ...
中方港口费反制航运造船再迎历史机会,滞港效率损失油散运费受益,关注中国制造船舶是否豁免
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-12 11:51
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Views - The shipping and shipbuilding industry is poised for historical opportunities due to China's countermeasures against the U.S. shipping fees, which may lead to non-linear price increases in the short term and a reduction in available vessels in the medium term [19][20] - The report highlights the potential for a surge in shipbuilding orders if U.S. investments in Chinese shipbuilding are exempted from tariffs, and the implications of U.S.-China negotiations on the industry [19][20] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Market Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.09%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.60 percentage points, with the road freight sector showing the highest increase of 3.04% [4][5] - Shipping data indicates that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China remained stable, while the Shanghai export container freight index rose by 4.12% [4][5] 2. Sub-industry Weekly Insights - The shipping and shipbuilding sector is expected to benefit from China's recent regulatory changes, which impose special port fees on U.S. vessels, potentially leading to increased operational costs for U.S. shipping companies [20][21] - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Shipping and China State Shipbuilding, as they may benefit from these developments [19] 3. High Dividend Stocks in Transportation - The report lists high dividend stocks in the transportation sector, including China Shipping (603167.SH) with a projected dividend yield of 10.92% and Daqin Railway (601006.SH) with a yield of 3.75% [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of dividend yields as a factor for investment decisions in the transportation sector [17] 4. ETF Size Changes - The report provides data on the changes in the size of various ETFs related to the transportation sector, indicating a general trend of growth in assets under management [13][14] 5. Potential Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that the shipping sector, particularly oil tankers and dry bulk carriers, may present significant investment opportunities due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions and regulatory changes [19][20] - Companies such as China Shipping and China State Shipbuilding are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of these market dynamics [19]
突然变卦的特朗普, 与一份美国内参刺激有关?
Hu Xiu· 2025-10-12 09:23
据媒体报道,2025年10月10日,美国总统特朗普宣布拟于11月1日起对所有中国输美商品在现有平均 57%关税基础上,额外加征100%,总税率或超150%,并同步实施关键软件出口管制。分析人士认为, 特朗普此举不仅是受中国稀土出口新规的刺激,还与中美在造船业方面的博弈态势有关。 美国政府宣布将于2025年10月14日起,对停靠其港口的中国建造、拥有或运营的船舶征收高额服务费。 这一政策的出台与美国造船业所面临的困境密切相关。 美方统计数据显示,2024年美国各地造船厂仅建成5艘大型远洋商船,总吨位76000吨,而同一时期,仅 中国船舶集团下属一家企业建造的商船总吨位,就已超越美国造船业自二战结束以来的累计产量。这一 巨大差距凸显了美国造船业的长期衰退,并反映出美国在全球海洋战略格局中的主导地位正受到威胁。 因此,美国政府在加强海事产业竞争力的同时,也在寻求通过各种手段重振其造船业,以恢复其全球海 事主导地位。 本文从四个维度梳理美国造船业的现状与前景:首先,深入分析美国造船业的历史衰退与当前面临的结 构性挑战;其次,评估全球造船产业格局的变化及其战略影响;再次,探讨"破冰船战略"的实施路径及 国际合作机会;最 ...
美对中国船舶收费中方对美同时实施
Huan Qiu Shi Bao· 2025-10-10 15:30
问:我们注意到交通运输部等发布公告,就美国对中国采取海事、物流和造船业301调查限制措施采取 反制措施,能否介绍相关情况? 商务部新闻发言人答:美东时间4月17日,美国贸易代表办公室宣布对中国海事、物流和造船领域301调 查的最终措施。其中针对中国相关船舶征收港口费的措施将于10月14日正式实施。美方措施是典型单边 主义行为,具有明显歧视性色彩,严重损害中国企业利益。中方对此强烈不满,一再申明坚决反对的立 场。 为维护国内相关产业利益,中方有关部门根据《中华人民共和国国际海运条例》等有关规定,对涉及美 国旗、美国造、美国公司拥有、参股或经营等美国元素的船舶收取特别港务费。上述措施将于10月14日 美方针对中国相关船舶征收港口费的措施实施同时正式实施。 中方强调,相关反制措施旨在维护国际航运和造船市场的公平竞争环境,是"正当防卫"行为。希望美方 慎重考虑,纠正错误做法,与中方相向而行,通过平等磋商与合作找到解决问题的办法。(央视新闻) ...
交运行业2025Q3业绩前瞻:快递三季报验证利润修复弹性,造船进入业绩释放,把握油运造船上行机会
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-10-10 13:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in profits for the express delivery sector driven by anti-competition policies, with an expected increase in prices leading to improved profitability for companies like Shentong Express and YTO Express [5][6]. - The shipping sector is experiencing strong demand, particularly for oil tankers, with historical high freight rates observed in August and September 2025. The report anticipates continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and a release of pent-up inventory demand [5]. - The shipbuilding industry is in a phase of profit release as high-priced orders are being delivered, with a strong demand for replacing old vessels. The report notes that the implementation of the 301 policy is expected to stimulate order volumes and ship prices [5]. - The airline sector is projected to see significant improvements in operational performance due to increased capacity and a recovery in international travel, with major airlines like China Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines expected to benefit [5][6]. - The report also indicates that the highway and railway sectors are likely to maintain growth in traffic volumes, with improvements in railway freight performance anticipated due to the retraction of previous freight rate reductions [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping - Oil tanker freight rates reached historical highs in August and September 2025, with a projected 14% decline in VLCC market rates for Q3, while Cape-sized bulk carriers are expected to see a 19% increase in rates [5]. - The report recommends companies such as China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Merchants Heavy Industry, highlighting the strong demand and supply constraints in the sector [5]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding industry is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with ongoing demand for replacing old vessels. The report suggests that the implementation of the 301 policy will positively impact order volumes and ship prices [5]. - Recommended companies include China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and China State Shipbuilding Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics [5]. Airlines - The airline sector is entering a peak travel season with increased capacity and improved passenger flow. The report anticipates significant operational improvements for major airlines due to favorable external factors such as lower oil prices [5][6]. - Companies like China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key beneficiaries of this trend [5]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in profits due to rising prices and reduced competition. The report notes a 12.3% year-on-year growth in express delivery volume in August 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Shentong Express and YTO Express, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing price increases [5]. Highway and Railway - The report forecasts growth in highway traffic and railway passenger and freight volumes, with a notable increase in railway freight performance expected in Q3 2025 [5]. - Recommended companies include Zhejiang Huhangyong and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway, which are expected to perform well in the current environment [5].
航海装备板块10月9日涨1.13%,海兰信领涨,主力资金净流出1.26亿元
Zheng Xing Xing Ye Ri Bao· 2025-10-09 09:00
证券之星消息,10月9日航海装备板块较上一交易日上涨1.13%,海兰信领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3933.97,上涨1.32%。深证成指报收于13725.56,上涨1.47%。航海装备板块个股涨跌见下表: | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300065 | 海兰信 | 19.93 | 6.01% | 65.96万 | 12.96亿 | | 300589 | 江龙船艇 | 12.70 | 2.09% | 9.54万 | · 1.21亿 | | 300008 | 天海防务 | 6.37 | 1.43% | 55.95万 | 3.55亿 | | 600150 | 中国船舶 | 35.04 | 1.27% | 103.12万 | 35.85 Z | | 300600 | 園瑞科技 | 15.70 | 0.51% | 9.86万 | 1.53亿 | | 300810 | 武夷君 | 46.50 | -0.17% | 4.22万 | 1.95亿 | | 600764 | 中国海防 | 31.1 ...
美国即将对中国船舶征收港口费 对航运市场影响几何?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-09 00:54
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is implementing additional port fees for Chinese vessels starting October 14, 2025, which will significantly increase operational costs for Chinese shipowners and shipbuilders [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Port Fee Implementation - The U.S. Trade Representative's Office (USTR) announced a fee structure for Chinese-owned, operated, and built vessels, with charges starting at $50 per net ton, increasing annually until reaching $140 by 2028 [1]. - The fees must be paid three working days before arrival at the first U.S. port, with non-compliance risking unloading delays or customs clearance suspension [1]. - The fee structure aims to boost U.S. shipbuilding and tax revenue while targeting Chinese maritime operations [3]. Group 2: Chinese Response and Operational Adjustments - In response, China amended its international shipping regulations to impose special fees on vessels from countries that implement discriminatory measures against Chinese shipping [2]. - Major shipping alliances have begun adjusting their operations, with some routes to the U.S. being suspended to reduce costs associated with the new port fees [4]. Group 3: Impact on Shipping Costs and Market Dynamics - The new port fees are expected to increase operational costs for Chinese shipowners significantly, with estimates of an additional $304 per TEU for container ships calling at U.S. ports [3]. - Shipping companies are prioritizing market share over profitability, leading to a rapid cancellation of sailings due to tariff disruptions and weak U.S. demand [5][6]. - The overall impact on the European shipping market is expected to be limited, but the situation will require ongoing observation as shipping lines may adjust their strategies in response to the new fees [7][8].
注意,美国即将对中国船舶征收港口费!对航运市场影响几何?
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-08 23:42
2025年4月,美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)推出了一项针对中国船舶和运营商的收费措施——任何停 靠在美国港口的中国船舶都将被征收额外费用。该措施定于2025年10月14日起实施。 期货日报记者注意到,美国海关与边境保护局(CBP)在10月3日公布了关于对中国拥有、运营、建造 的船舶,以及所有外国制造的汽车运输船征收港口费的细则:对中国拥有或运营的船舶按每净吨50美元 收费(2026年增至80美元,2027年增至110美元,2028年增至140美元);对中国建造的船舶按每净吨18 美元或每个集装箱120美元收费,取两者中的较高者收费(2028年分别增至33美元和250美元);对非美 国建造的汽车运输船(滚装船)按每净吨14美元收费。 上述港口费必须在抵达美国境内第一个港口前三个工作日,通过美国财政部官方支付平台Pay.gov完成 缴费。若未能在系统中完成支付或提交有效凭证,船舶将面临被拒绝装卸、延迟放行甚至暂停清关的风 险。 相比此前公布的征询版,此次细则版最显著的区别在于由船舶运营商自行判断是否需要对某艘挂靠美国 港口的船舶提前支付港口费。 作为反击,9月底,我国决定对《中华人民共和国国际海运条例》作出修改 ...