Core Insights - Real estate companies in Xiamen are shifting their business strategies to focus on "sales-driven production" and product upgrades, aiming to create differentiated competitive advantages and meet the diverse needs of homebuyers [1] Sales Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, the top 10 real estate companies in Xiamen achieved a total sales amount of approximately 46.03 billion yuan, with Jianfa Real Estate, Guomao Real Estate, and Xiamen Rail Transit Group leading the sales performance [2][3] - The sales area for the top 10 companies reached 1.5387 million square meters, with a minimum sales threshold of 1.953 billion yuan for the top 10 companies [3] Market Trends - The new housing price index in Xiamen has shown a continuous downward trend, with a September 2025 index of 28,696 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.55% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.03% [4] - The second-hand housing market is also experiencing a decline, with a September 2025 index of 42,721 yuan per square meter, down 1.14% month-on-month and 13.23% year-on-year [7] Market Activity - The real estate market in Xiamen saw a mild recovery in activity in September 2025, with new housing transactions reaching approximately 97,300 square meters, an 18% increase month-on-month and a 19% increase year-on-year [8] - The total supply of new residential properties in Xiamen for the first nine months of 2025 was 1.1085 million square meters, a 51% increase year-on-year, with September seeing a significant supply increase to 270,000 square meters [8] Customer Preferences - There is a growing demand for high-quality living spaces, with the proportion of high-end improvement and luxury products increasing to 12% and 7% respectively in 2025, while the share of basic and improved housing products has decreased [11] Inventory and Market Dynamics - As of the end of September 2025, the inventory level in Xiamen's real estate market was approximately 2.6232 million square meters, reflecting a 7% increase month-on-month, leading to an extended inventory turnover period of 15.91 months [14][17] - The top-performing districts in terms of transaction volume were Jimei District, Huli District, and Tong'an District, with respective sales areas of 275,900 square meters, 238,600 square meters, and 180,300 square meters [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, indicating optimism about future recovery driven by favorable policies and market dynamics [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that investment recovery will be slower than in previous cycles, with projected declines in investment, new starts, and completions for 2025 [2][3][20]. - Sales metrics remain weak, with both sales area and sales amount showing declines. However, the report suggests that the industry is at a bottoming stage, with potential for demand recovery driven by proactive policies [21][34]. - Funding sources are under pressure, with a notable decline in domestic loans and self-raised funds. The report expects a gradual improvement in funding conditions as industry policies continue to relax [35][37]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to September 2025, total real estate investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 13.9%. In September alone, investment dropped by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - New starts and construction activities also showed declines, with new starts down 18.9% year-on-year and construction down 9.4% [20][21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. The sales amount reached 6.3 trillion yuan, a decline of 7.9% [21][34]. - The average selling price of commercial housing decreased by 3% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the rate of decline in September [32][34]. Funding Side - Cumulative funding sources for real estate development from January to September 2025 totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources was 11.5% [35][37]. - Domestic loans and self-raised funds saw significant declines, with domestic loans down 14.6% in September compared to the previous month [36][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating optimism about future developments and recovery in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that the "Good Housing" policy will create new pathways for recovery, particularly in core cities, and will lead to a shift in business models from finance-oriented to manufacturing-oriented [2][3][21]. Investment Sector Summary - **Investment Trends**: From January to September 2025, total real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In September alone, investment fell by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - **New Construction**: New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the month-on-month comparison [20][21]. - **Completion Rates**: The completion of projects showed a positive trend in September, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [20][21]. Sales Sector Summary - **Sales Performance**: The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. In September, the sales area decreased by 10.5% compared to the same month last year [21][35]. - **Sales Revenue**: The total sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%. The average selling price of properties decreased by 3% year-on-year [21][35][33]. Funding Sector Summary - **Funding Sources**: Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources expanded to 11.5% [36][38]. - **Loan Trends**: Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% in September, indicating tightening financial conditions for the sector [36][38]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. "Good Housing" companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [2]. 2. Companies with potential for commercial real estate revaluation: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [2]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. 4. Property management firms: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [2].

Core Insights - The real estate companies have been focusing on core cities for land acquisition, leading to a 12% year-on-year increase in land transfer fees across 300 cities in the first three quarters, despite an 8% decrease in transaction area [1][6][27] - In the third quarter, the land market cooled down as the supply of quality land in core cities slowed, with the average premium rate for residential land dropping to 5.8% and transaction area and transfer fees decreasing by 13% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1][6][27] - The top 20 cities accounted for 61% of the national residential land transfer fees in the first three quarters, although this proportion decreased by 7 percentage points compared to the first half of the year due to the slowdown in land supply in core cities [1][15] Land Market Trends - The fourth quarter is typically a peak period for land supply, with expectations of increased market supply, but the heat of land auctions will depend on the recovery of new home sales [1][27] - The average premium rate for residential land has shown a downward trend, dropping to 3.8% in September, the lowest monthly level this year [9][27] - The land transfer fees for 300 cities reached 1.86 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a slight increase of 3.1% year-on-year, while the third quarter saw a decline of 10.4% in transfer fees [6][7] City Concentration and Performance - The land transfer fees in first-tier cities have seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7% in the first three quarters, while second-tier cities also experienced growth, albeit at a lower rate [10][15] - The performance of third and fourth-tier cities remains weak, with both land supply and transaction metrics declining more than in first and second-tier cities [10][12] - The top cities for land transfer fees include Hangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai, each exceeding 100 billion yuan in fees during the first three quarters [15][18] Corporate Strategies and Acquisitions - The top 100 real estate companies increased their land acquisition amounts by 36.7% year-on-year, with state-owned enterprises being the primary players in the market [18][24] - Companies are advised to focus on core cities and avoid high-priced land to ensure the safety, liquidity, and profitability of new projects [1][27] - Recent trends show companies forming joint ventures to acquire quality land at lower costs, indicating a strategic shift towards consolidating resources [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The logistics sector experienced a decline of 1.6% on October 17, with major stocks like Huaguang Yuanhai leading the drop, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.95% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 3.04% [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The logistics sector's stocks showed mixed performance, with YD Holdings rising by 10.03% to close at 9.76, while Huami Yuanhai fell by 5.74% to 26.58 [1][2]. - The trading volume for YD Holdings was 542,900 shares, with a transaction value of 525 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - The overall market saw significant declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3839.76 and the Shenzhen Component Index at 12688.94 [1]. Group 2: Capital Flow - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 658 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 471 million yuan [2][3]. - Notable stocks like Xiamen Guomao and Jianda Co. had varying net inflows and outflows, with Xiamen Guomao seeing a net inflow of 15.31 million yuan from institutional investors [3]. - The overall capital flow indicates a shift in investor sentiment, with retail investors showing more confidence compared to institutional investors [2][3].

Sales Performance - In the first nine months of 2025, the total sales amount of the top 30 real estate companies in Beijing reached 257.34 billion yuan, with China Overseas Land & Investment, Yuexiu Property, and China Resources Land leading the sales at 31.08 billion yuan, 21.25 billion yuan, and 20.53 billion yuan respectively [10] - The total sales area for the top 30 companies was 4.796 million square meters, with China Overseas Land & Investment, China Resources Land, and Shoukai Co., Ltd. achieving sales areas of 430,000 square meters, 340,000 square meters, and 333,000 square meters respectively [10] Policy Changes - The annual adjustment policy for Beijing's housing provident fund has been implemented, maintaining a contribution rate between 5% and 12%, with the upper limit for monthly contributions adjusted to 35,811 yuan and the lower limit to 2,540 yuan [10] Market Activity - In September, Beijing recorded 3,556 new housing contracts, showing a month-on-month increase of 9.9% and a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. The second-hand housing market saw 15,829 contracts, with month-on-month and year-on-year increases of 24.8% and 18.7% respectively [10] - The top-selling project in September was the Zhongjian Yunhe Jiuyuan, which achieved a sales amount of 3.568 billion yuan and a sales area of 58,000 square meters, topping both the sales amount and area rankings [10] Land Market - In September, four residential land plots were successfully auctioned in Beijing, with the Chaoyang District Sun Palace plot sold at a premium rate of 39.18%. The plot attracted nine bidders and was ultimately won by China Construction Intelligence with a total price of 4.3145 billion yuan and a floor price of 85,331 yuan per square meter [11]

2025年10月13日，厦门建发集团有限公司在优质运营、创新突破、社会贡献等指标中表现优异，根据经 观受尊敬企业组委会初步评估，入围《经济观察报》2024—2025年度受尊敬企业。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to face a sluggish fundamental environment, with performance under pressure in the short term. However, there are signs of potential recovery in the future, albeit at a slow pace [4][2]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the real estate sector will remain under pressure in Q3 2025 due to declining sales and low profit margins, but a gradual recovery is expected in 2025-2026 [4][2]. - The government is emphasizing policies to stabilize the real estate market, including urban renewal initiatives and easing purchase restrictions in major cities [4][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Expectations - The report predicts that the performance of the real estate sector will continue to be challenged in Q3 2025, primarily due to a decline in sales since 2021 and low profit margins driven by previous price cuts [4][2]. - Sales data shows that the top 50 real estate companies experienced a cumulative sales area decline of 25% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2025, with significant monthly declines in July to September [4][2]. Company Performance Forecast - The report categorizes major companies based on their expected net profit growth for Q1-Q3 2025: - Companies with growth >+15%: Binjiang Group - Companies with growth between 0% and +15%: China Merchants Jinling - Companies with growth between -15% and 0%: China Merchants Shekou - Companies with growth between -30% and -15%: Jianfa Co., New Town Holdings - Companies with growth <=-30%: Poly Developments, Huafa Group [7][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on new opportunities in the real estate sector, particularly in "good housing" policies and the revaluation of commercial real estate. Specific companies are highlighted for investment: - Good housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Co. - Commercial real estate and undervalued companies: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [4][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the current real estate policies are under pressure from the fundamental market conditions, suggesting that the policy response may exceed the measures taken in 2008 and 2014 [4] - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies performing well in land acquisition and sales [4] - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4] - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor for future developments [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the week covering the National Day holiday, new housing transaction volume in 30 cities was 835,000 square meters, down 55.3% week-on-week and 53.4% year-on-year [11] - The decline in new housing transactions is attributed to a combination of last year's high base and the current market's sluggishness [11][12] - The report anticipates continued pressure on year-on-year data for the fourth quarter due to elevated bases from the previous year [11] Secondary Housing Transactions - In the same week, secondary housing transactions in 14 sample cities totaled 843,000 square meters, reflecting a 27.9% decrease week-on-week and a 47.9% decrease year-on-year [21] - Year-to-date, secondary housing transactions have reached 80.2 million square meters, showing a 16.1% increase compared to the previous year [21] Market Performance - The report notes that the Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 23rd among 31 Shenwan primary industries [32] - The report identifies a total of 64 stocks that increased in value during the week, while 43 stocks decreased [32] Credit Bond Issuance - During the week, two credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 940 million yuan, a decrease of 11.28 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for quality real estate companies in core cities [5]. Core Insights - In September 2025, the decline in sales for real estate companies narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% for monthly sales and 17% for cumulative sales, showing an improvement compared to previous months [5]. - The top three companies in monthly sales for September were Poly Developments (20.5 billion), China Overseas (20.2 billion), and China Resources (17.6 billion), with several companies like Jianfa and Jinmao showing growth against the trend [5]. - The report highlights a structural differentiation in the domestic sales market, with first and second-tier cities performing better than third and fourth-tier cities, suggesting a "structurally strong and weak overall" market outlook [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September 2025, 50 real estate companies achieved a total sales amount of 180.2 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 10% [5]. - Cumulative sales from January to September 2025 reached 1,740.3 billion, reflecting a 17% year-on-year decline [5]. Policy Impact - The report notes that government policies aimed at stabilizing the market have begun to take effect, leading to a significant narrowing of the sales decline in Q4 2024 [5]. - Policies include increased support for quality housing and the relaxation of purchase restrictions in major cities [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies such as Jianfa International, Binhai Group, China Resources, and others for potential investment opportunities [5]. - It also suggests looking into undervalued commercial real estate firms and property management companies for investment [5].