Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in second-hand home subscriptions and a strengthening of transaction confidence [7][15]. - The average daily subscription for second-hand homes in 79 cities reached 3,404 units from January 1 to January 22, 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.1% compared to the same period in 2025 [16][27]. - The report highlights that the market is experiencing a self-driven recovery without significant large-scale stimulus policies being implemented [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-Hand Homes: Significant Growth in Subscriptions and Record High Conversion Rates - Overall transactions show a recovery in lower-tier cities, although this has not yet fully translated into net signing [15]. - In key cities, second-hand home subscriptions in first-tier cities like Guangzhou are relatively stable, while many lower-tier cities are experiencing growth [31]. - The conversion rate of visits to transactions has reached a new high, with a 5.6% conversion rate in 70 cities, up from the previous quarter [35]. 2. New Homes: Low Net Signing Levels Across All Tiers - The average daily net signing for new homes in 45 cities was 250,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% [29]. - All tiers of cities are experiencing varying degrees of decline in new home net signing, with first-tier cities seeing the most significant drops [29]. 3. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the average price of second-hand homes in 33 cities has decreased by 17.9% year-on-year compared to 2025 [41]. - The report indicates that the price adjustments in lower-tier cities are more pronounced, aligning closer to residents' psychological expectations, which has led to increased subscriptions [42]. - The report notes a decline in the number of second-hand listings, particularly in key cities, due to factors such as the removal of ineffective listings by agents and homeowners withdrawing listings amid falling prices [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives aimed at stabilizing the market. The emphasis on "high-quality development" suggests a shift in policy that could lead to positive changes in the industry [3][4]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for quality companies are historically low, making them attractive investment opportunities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities decreased by 0.6%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 17.7% [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. Year-on-year, January transactions are down by 9.6% [4][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69, indicating a healthy demand relative to new listings. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [4][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights a series of government initiatives aimed at promoting urban renewal, with a focus on addressing key issues such as planning, funding, and operational challenges. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has indicated that there is significant potential for high-quality development in the real estate sector [3][31]. - Specific policies include Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy for enhancing urban quality and development [3][31]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have reported their expected net profits for 2025, with notable figures including China Vanke's bond extension proposal and various financing activities from companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [3][41].

Core Viewpoint - A significant number of companies in the A-share market have reported substantial losses, leading to a collective loss of 500 billion yuan, indicating a severe financial crisis within the industry [1][20]. Group 1: Company Losses - 65 companies disclosed their financial troubles, with major players like Red Star Macalline, Jindi Group, and Jianfa Holdings reporting massive losses of 225 billion, 135 billion, and 100 billion yuan respectively [4][10]. - The losses from these three companies alone could have been sufficient to acquire an entire medium-sized sector, highlighting the scale of the financial damage [5]. - The losses are attributed to asset impairment and the devaluation of previously overvalued properties, leading to a collapse in investor confidence [8][20]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The market appears to be in a state of denial, with indices showing resilience while individual stocks suffer severe declines, indicating a disconnect between market perception and reality [3][10]. - The financial reports have led to a significant drop in stock prices, undermining the belief in "core assets" and revealing the fragility of the market [10][20]. Group 3: Financial Strategies - The phenomenon of "financial big washing" is observed, where companies are using accounting flexibility to report massive losses in one go, potentially to reset their financial baselines for future reporting [17][20]. - This strategy allows companies to clear hidden liabilities and prepare for a potential recovery, but it also risks eroding investor trust [20][21]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The current regulatory environment, including the new registration system, has increased the pressure on companies to maintain transparency and avoid continuous losses, which could lead to delisting [21][22]. - Companies are advised to focus on fundamental performance rather than speculative trading, as the market is becoming increasingly unforgiving towards those with deteriorating fundamentals [21].

克而瑞数据显示：2025年超七成房企净利润同比下滑，存货减值与结转压力，化作全行业共同的困局，即便是以往被视为"压舱石"的国央企， 它们或许步伐更稳，却也在这轮漫长的困局中感受到了切实的压力。 近日，建发股份（600153.SH）披露2025年业绩预告，其子公司联发集团因年内结算利润承压、存货跌价准备计提增加，将出现亏损。联发的 人事变动也引发业内关注——建发房产总经理林伟国拟升任建发房产董事长，并同步拟出任联发集团董事长，意味着建发集团旗下房地产板块 将由其统一执掌。事实上，年底多家房企不约而同地启动人事与组织变革，这既是应对当下市场压力的必要举措，也为企业的战略转型铺平道 路。 面对行业压力，联发正通过一系列策略调整应对周期考验，如投资聚焦一、二线高能级城市，优化存量资产结构以及聚焦特定客群进行产品定 位等等，勾勒出一条适应变化、寻求稳健发展的转型探索路径。 这种聚焦策略，在当前行业利润普遍承压的阶段，体现了一种"以短期阵痛换取长期健康"的战略和决心。它意味着联发主动收缩战线，将有限 的资源集中投入于更精准适配核心战略的区域，为"新青年"产品的开发和去化，构筑了坚实的客群基础，以稳健经营推动企业向高质量发 ...

关键词阅读：建发股份 责任编辑：山上 作为A股市场中践行长期主义的优质标杆企业，建发股份自上市以来始终将股东回报放在重要位置，现 金分红政策的连续性与稳定性备受市场认可。根据其2024年底通过的股东大会决议，建发股份2024年和 2025年计划每年以现金分红比例不低于30%，且每年每股分红不低于0.7元，为投资者提供了清晰可预 期的回报保障。以2026年1月23日建发股份收盘价9.39元/股计算，按全年每股0.7元的最低分红承诺测 算，全年股息率约为7.45%，在A股市场尤其是同类上市公司中处于领先水平，成为稳健型投资者的优 质选择。 回顾过往，建发股份始终重视股东回报，分红政策保持一贯的稳健性，且形成了"中期分红+年度分 红"的灵活回馈机制，以真金白银彰显经营底气。2025年，在宏观经济承压和行业周期性波动的背景 下，公司仍坚守高比例现金分红的承诺，既体现了对股东的责任与诚意，更传递出管理层对公司当前经 营基本面的坚定信心。未来，建发股份将继续坚守合规经营、稳健发展原则，在巩固核心业务竞争力的 同时，结合公司盈利情况持续优化股东回报机制，以合理、可持续的方式与股东共享企业高质量发展的 长期价值。 2026年 ...

北京商报讯（记者 李晗）1月23日，建发股份发布2025年度业绩预告显示，预计2025年建发股份净亏损 52亿元至100亿元；扣除非经常性损益的净亏损33亿元至65亿元。 ...

格隆汇1月23日丨建发股份(600153.SH)公布，经财务部门初步测算，预计2025年度实现归母净利润-100 亿元到-52亿元；预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润-65亿元到-33亿 元。 ...

如在本次实施权益分派的股权登记日前公司总股本发生变动，公司拟维 持每股分配金额不变，相应调整分配总额。 2025 年度分红承诺：每股现金分红不低于 0.7 元（包含本次中期分红 0.2 元/股）。 | 股票代码：600153 | 股票简称：建发股份 | | | 公告编号：临 | 2026—003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：115755 | 债券简称：23 | 建发 | Y1 | | | | 债券代码：240217 | 债券简称：23 | 建发 | Y2 | | | | 债券代码：240650 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y1 | | | | 债券代码：241016 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y2 | | | | 债券代码：241137 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y3 | | | | 债券代码：241265 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y4 | | | | 债券代码：241266 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y5 | | | 厦门建发股份有限公司 关于 2025 年中期利润分配方案的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事 ...

| 股票代码：600153 | 股票简称：建发股份 | | | 公告编号：临 | 2026—002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：115755 | 债券简称：23 | 建发 | Y1 | | | | 债券代码：240217 | 债券简称：23 | 建发 | Y2 | | | | 债券代码：240650 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y1 | | | | 债券代码：241016 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y2 | | | | 债券代码：241137 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y3 | | | | 债券代码：241265 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y4 | | | | 债券代码：241266 | 债券简称：24 | 建发 | Y5 | | | 公司预计 2025 年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的 净利润-65 亿元到-33 亿元。 厦门建发股份有限公司 2025 年度业绩预告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 ...