运营商财经网 章少霞/文 在国内众多房企中，建发房产作为闽系房企新龙头，一向是市场关注的焦点。近日，运营商财经网注意 到建发房产总经理林伟国，拟升任建房房产董事长，并同步兼任联发集团董事长。本文试图揭秘他的过 往经历。 大家首先要搞清楚联发集团与建发集团的关系。 建发集团是联发集团的控股股东，联发集团是建发集团地产开发板块的核心平台。两者在项目开发上分 工明确，例如建发房产侧重高端产品定位和品牌输出，联发集团则负责工程管理和供应链。说白了，建 发房产是房地产开发商，联发集团是建筑企业。 根据中指数据，王文怀上任不到一年，整个2025年全年拿地权益金额123亿元，在2025年中国房地产企 业权益拿地金额TOP100中排名第十四；而在2024年中国房地产企业权益拿地金额TOP100的排名中并没 有联发集团。 日前，建发股份对外宣布，预计2025年度归母净利润为负值，原因之一是房地产业务子公司联发集团年 内结算利润为负、存货跌价准备计提增加。 现在卖房这么难，王文怀还去花那么钱拿地，财报能好看吗？ 根据联发集团三季度财报，经营性现金流量净额为-53.29亿元。资产负债率为73.71%。财务出生的林伟 国是否能够有效 ...

交通运输/物流 建发股份（600153.SH） 全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2026/1/23 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 9.39 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 11.71/8.68 | | 总市值(亿元) | 272.27 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 272.27 | | 总股本(亿股) | 29.00 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 29.00 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 59.21 | 股价走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 建发股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《营收利润同比收缩，回款比例保持 高位—公司信息更新报告》-2025.9.2 《营收规模有所收缩，增强回报保护 股 东 利 益 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.4.17 ——公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@ ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview Coatings and Waterproofing Materials - There are opportunities for price increases in the coatings and waterproofing materials sectors, with coatings showing signs of growth in 2025 and waterproofing expected to follow in 2026. Key companies to focus on include Yuhong, Keshun, and Sankeshu [1][2] Pipe Manufacturing - Companies targeting the C-end market are performing steadily with good cash flow and dividends, making them suitable for conservative investors. Recommended companies include Tubao and Weixing [1][2] Glass Fiber Sector - The demand outlook for the glass fiber sector is positive, with significant price increases in ordinary electronic cloth since the beginning of the year. China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology have considerable growth potential in the high-end electronic cloth market [1][2] Construction Sector - Large companies with low valuations and high dividend yields, such as Tunnel Co. and China State Construction, are worth attention. A recovery in traditional construction demand will benefit upstream material suppliers like Honglu Steel Structure and Jinggong Steel Structure [1][2] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently at a high PB valuation, around the 75th percentile over the last 20 years, but still has upward potential based on PE valuation at approximately the 35th percentile. Gold stocks are valued at 12-13 times earnings, with a potential increase of 50%-70% during a bull market. Energy metals like copper and aluminum also show around 40% upside potential. The gold sector has risen 30% since the beginning of the year and is in the middle of a quarterly uptrend [3][4] Coal Industry Current Fundamentals - The coking coal sector shows strong fundamentals, with a recent increase in the coal index by 1.44%, outperforming the CSI 300 index. Supply-side data is low, with significant inventory reductions. As of January 23, coal inventory was 168 million tons, down 3.3% year-on-year, with coking coal inventory down 12% [5][6] Future Expectations - The coal sector is expected to see significant price increases following policy changes that will affect inventory and production levels. High-quality coking coal companies and high-dividend thermal coal companies are recommended for investment [6] Real Estate Sector Market Trends - The real estate sector is nearing the end of its bottoming phase, with recommendations to accumulate stocks that have improved fundamentals but have not yet realized performance. Jianfa Co. is highlighted, with expected losses of 5.2 to 10 billion yuan in 2025 but a commitment to maintain dividends of at least 0.7 yuan per share [7][8] Company Performance - Jianfa Co. has a stable supply chain business with significant growth in overseas operations, achieving sales of 14 billion USD, a 37% year-on-year increase. Major losses are attributed to its home furnishing business and real estate operations [9][10] Future Performance Expectations - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a low point for Jianfa Co., with a projected rebound in 2026, estimating profits between 3 to 3.5 billion yuan. The company is expected to maintain a stable dividend strategy, supported by strong cash flow [11]

Core Viewpoint - The resilience and security of supply chains have become core anchors of national economic competitiveness amid structural fluctuations, geopolitical tensions, and cost pressures. Companies like Jianfa Co., Ltd. are transitioning from passive risk management to proactive global resource allocation strategies, establishing themselves as benchmarks in this transformation [1]. Group 1: Domestic Trade and Supply Chain - Domestic trade circulation serves as a crucial economic artery, directly impacting the stability of livelihoods and operational efficiency of industries. Jianfa Co., Ltd. plays a key role in this sector by providing large-scale, specialized supply chain services to overcome regional circulation bottlenecks, ensuring the rapid and stable supply of essential materials [3]. - The company focuses on food security as a priority, particularly addressing the "north grain south transport" strategy, achieving over 10 million tons in domestic agricultural product operations in the last production season, thereby reinforcing the food security framework [3][5]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Integration - Jianfa Co., Ltd. is advancing its global supply chain layout while deepening its domestic circulation network, aiming to stabilize domestic industries and livelihoods. The company targets key global production areas to ensure a steady supply of essential resources for domestic manufacturing and consumer sectors [6]. - The company has established over 70 overseas companies and offices, forming strategic partnerships with global suppliers to create a stable supply chain that meets domestic demands. This includes sourcing high-quality agricultural products from regions like South America and Europe [6][9]. Group 3: New Consumption Empowerment - Jianfa Co., Ltd. is leveraging its supply chain capabilities to support the growth of new consumption sectors, integrating domestic circulation experience with global resource capabilities. This dual approach aims to enhance the quality and expansion of the consumer market [10]. - The company's involvement in the coffee industry exemplifies its role in empowering new consumption, with significant growth in procurement and sales, achieving over 40,000 tons of coffee bean purchases and sales exceeding 700 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 120% [11]. - Collaborations with global dairy companies and technology firms further illustrate Jianfa Co., Ltd.'s commitment to enhancing product quality and market competitiveness through efficient supply chain management [12][14]. Group 4: Strategic Partnerships and Future Outlook - During the 2023 China International Import Expo, Jianfa Co., Ltd. signed agreements worth over 5.2 billion USD with seven global agricultural and trading firms, expanding its strategic layout in multiple agricultural categories [7]. - The company's comprehensive supply chain service system, which spans from livelihood protection to industrial support and consumption upgrading, positions it as a key player in stabilizing national supply chains and contributing to the resilience of the economy [10][14].

厦门大宗商品供应链"三巨头"重磅发布 近日，厦门大宗商品供应链领域的"三巨头"——厦门象屿、厦门国贸、建发股份——相继亮出五年战略 蓝图，清晰描绘出2026年至2030年供应链头部企业的跃升路径。 强化资源掌控力 在厦门象屿的五年发展规划中，国际化业务与资源布局被提升至全新战略高度。公司将立足国内核心市 场，加速国际化布局，拓展海外资源端与消费端市场，建立海外资源、贸易、产业、物流、资金中心， 形成国内外联动的市场网络。同时，加强顶层设计，优化海外区域与资源布局，通过做实海外平台、推 进属地化经营，构建全球资源供应链网络。 厦门国贸自诞生起就自带国际贸易基因，因此，将"国际化"列为其首要战略举措。通过从"打通业 务"到"建强组织"的根本性转变，打造"一核两翼三支柱"：一核是聚焦组织能力出海；两翼是构建"敏捷 前台"与"赋能中台"协同作战体系；三支柱是夯实组织与人才机制、国际化激励与考核机制、风险合规 与全球化文化。深度融入国际市场，大力开发属地化业务，为未来业务发展注入增量。 近日发布的业绩预告显示，尽管建发股份由于地产板块经营不力，导致2025年度归母净利润预计为负， 但公司的供应链运营业务仍保持稳健盈利， ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant declines in investment, sales area, and sales revenue in 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1][3][9]. Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2% [1]. - The sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the sales revenue was 83,937 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% decline [1][9]. - The construction area for real estate developers was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with residential construction down 10.3% [3]. Construction Activity - New construction area was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, with residential new construction area at 42,984 million square meters, a decline of 19.8% [4]. - The completion area was 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1%, with residential completions at 42,830 million square meters, a decrease of 20.2% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is still in a "de-inventory" phase due to declining new home sales and significantly reduced land transactions over the past two years [5]. - Some central and state-owned enterprises are maintaining orderly construction activities, and there is still demand for well-located properties, which is boosting market confidence [6]. Financial Policies and Support - Local governments are enhancing "guarantee delivery" efforts, with recent financial policies aimed at stabilizing financing for projects on the "white list," which will support the delivery of homes [7]. Leading Companies - In 2025, ten real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with four surpassing 200 billion yuan. These include major players like Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Vanke [9]. - The top ten companies by investment are primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant investments from China Overseas, China Resources, Poly Development, and China Merchants Shekou, indicating a strategic positioning during market adjustments [9]. Market Trends - December 2025 showed signs of improvement, with new commercial housing sales area increasing by 39.87% month-on-month and sales revenue rising by 44.07% [10]. - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities saw a slight decrease, with Shanghai experiencing a minor increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou reported declines [10][11]. - The second-hand housing market is also seeing a shift, with increased transactions in second-hand homes as buyers seek more affordable options [12].

厦门供应链"三巨头"亮剑！五年战略蓝图重磅发布 近日，厦门大宗商品供应链领域的"三巨头"——厦门象屿（600057）、厦门国贸（600755）、建发股份 （600153）——相继亮出五年战略蓝图，清晰描绘出2026年至2030年供应链头部企业的跃升路径。 建发集团则聚焦提升"专业化、国际化、数智化、预见力、资源力"五大核心竞争力，筑牢主业高质量发 展根基。在资源力层面，公司将统筹、优化全盘资源配置，并通过股权投资、战略合作和自主建设等方 式，获取并整合产业链上下游关键节点的重要物流与产业资源，提高对核心要素的掌控能力，提升供应 链的安全性与稳定性，比如在物流层面，对内构建统一的物流支持体系，对外加大物流投资，增强物流 体系综合实力。此外，公司将主动链接外部资源，构建独特的资源组合与产业生态，增强行业话语权和 影响力，提升企业核心竞争力。 通过从单纯交易转向资源整合，企业能够深度嵌入产业链上下游，显著增强对全链条的影响力与话语 权。尤其是在传统贸易领域，资源掌控不仅是抵御外部风险的关键屏障，更是构建差异化竞争优势、形 成行业领导地位的核心要素，最终推动企业从被动参与者转变为产业链的主导者。 出海战略再升级 随着 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices fell by 6.1% in 2025, with core cities experiencing a significant decline [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investments in this area can reflect broader economic trends [4]. - It notes that the competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing price changes of -1.7%, -2.5%, and -3.7% respectively [1][11]. - The report indicates that new home prices increased in 5 cities while decreasing in 65 cities throughout the year, with Shanghai showing a consistent month-on-month increase [1]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 6.1% year-on-year, with all cities experiencing a decline [2][12]. - The report notes that after a brief stabilization in some cities post-September 2024, the second-hand home prices resumed their downward trend starting in the second quarter of 2025 [2]. Transaction Volume - For new homes, the transaction volume in 30 cities was 117.7 million square meters, reflecting a 1.3% decrease month-on-month and a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [3][25]. - In the second-hand market, the transaction volume in 15 cities totaled 213.9 million square meters, showing a 3.9% increase month-on-month but a 4.0% decrease year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market dynamics [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates a significant loss in 2025, with projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -10 billion to -5.2 billion yuan, compared to a profit of 2.946 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of -10 billion to -5.2 billion yuan for 2025, a stark contrast to the profit of 2.946 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be between -6.5 billion and -3.2 billion yuan, down from 1.905 billion yuan in 2024 [1] Group 2: Reasons for Loss - The loss is primarily attributed to negative profit recognition from Lianfa Group and a significant increase in inventory impairment provisions, with Lianfa Group's revenue recognition declining year-on-year [1] - The company has also reported a substantial decrease in the fair value of investment properties at Meikailong, leading to the recognition of asset and credit impairment provisions due to changing rental expectations [1] Group 3: Dividend and Cash Flow - Despite the anticipated loss, the company plans to distribute an interim dividend of 0.2 yuan per share, totaling 580 million yuan, and maintains a commitment to a full-year dividend of no less than 0.7 yuan per share for 2025 [2] - The expected loss is mainly due to non-cash losses, which are not expected to significantly impact operational cash flow, and the parent company's retained earnings remain positive [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company's supply chain and Jianfa Real Estate division are expected to continue operating steadily, contributing positively to profits [2] - Following the substantial impairment provisions from Lianfa Group and Meikailong, the company is anticipated to alleviate negative factors affecting its performance and valuation, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being -9.42 billion, 2.93 billion, and 4.46 billion yuan respectively [2]