| 华泰研究 | | | 中报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 9 月 | 01 日│中国内地 | 仓储物流 | 目标价(人民币): | 14.29 | 建发股份发布半年报，2025 年 H1 实现营收 3153.21 亿元（yoy-1.16%）， 归母净利 8.41 亿元（yoy-29.87%），扣非净利 6.75 亿元（yoy-20.38%）。 其中 Q2 实现营收 1715.48 亿元（yoy-8.59%，qoq+19.32%），归母净利 2.57 亿元（yoy-56.85%，qoq-56.04%）。业绩下滑主要受累于家居业务， 租金下滑导致分部收入下滑 21%，产生公允价值变动和减值损失约 21 亿。 房地产以及家居业务仍受减值因素的影响，但供应链业务稳健发展。长期视 角下，我们看好公司融资优势、优质土储以及周转能力，尤其是建发房产产 品力优势持续提升，有望打开未来发展空间，叠加高股息加持，维持"买入"。 房地产业务："灯塔"级产品力推动销售增长，投拓积极优化土储 证券研究报告 建发股份 (60 ...

Core Viewpoint - Under the dual impetus of global supply chain restructuring and the wave of Chinese enterprises going abroad, the internationalization strategy of Jianfa Co., Ltd. is entering a harvest period [1][2]. Group 1: International Business Growth - As of 2024, the scale of Jianfa's overseas business has exceeded $10 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 12%, accounting for 14% of the company's supply chain business revenue [1]. - The company has seen a significant increase in business scale with Southeast Asian alliance member countries, up about 30% year-on-year, and with RCEP member countries, up about 28% year-on-year [2]. - Jianfa's unique "LIFT" supply chain service system positions it as both a promoter and beneficiary of the trend of Chinese enterprises going abroad [1][2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Services and Risk Management - Jianfa provides stable raw material supply, efficient management, and secure logistics services, helping manufacturing enterprises focus on production and R&D while reducing resource allocation costs [3]. - The company offers a comprehensive supply chain solution for projects like the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park, integrating various logistics and trade services [3][6]. - The overall overseas supply chain market is characterized by "large market, large companies," indicating significant growth potential for leading firms like Jianfa [3][4]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning and Future Outlook - Jianfa has established over 70 overseas companies and offices, with more than 300 overseas warehousing points by 2024, covering over 30 countries and regions [5][6]. - The company is transitioning from being a "trade intermediary" to a "global resource integrator," aiming to help Chinese enterprises restructure their supply chains abroad [6]. - With a market share of only 0.58% in its supply chain operations, even a 1% increase could correspond to over 100% revenue growth, highlighting the potential for market expansion [4].

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Jilin Jianyu Automotive International Trade Co., Ltd. indicates a growing focus on the electric vehicle (EV) market in China, with the company being indirectly controlled by Jianfa Co., Ltd. [1] Company Summary - Jilin Jianyu Automotive International Trade Co., Ltd. has been recently established with a registered capital of 20 million yuan [1] - The legal representative of the company is Zhong Hong [1] - The company's business scope includes the sale of complete electric vehicles, import and export of goods, technology import and export, agency for import and export, automobile sales, and wholesale of auto parts [1] Industry Summary - The establishment of this company reflects the increasing trend towards electric vehicle sales and related services in the automotive industry [1] - The involvement of Jianfa Co., Ltd. suggests potential strategic advantages and synergies in the EV market [1]

Group 1 - The core index, the CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824), experienced a decline of 0.21% as of September 1, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Notable gainers included COFCO Sugar (600737) with a 10% limit up, Luxi Chemical (000830) rising by 6.74%, and Western Mining (601168) increasing by 3.75% [1] - The National Enterprise Dividend ETF (159515) underwent a downward adjustment, with the latest price at 1.14 yuan [1] Group 2 - The CSI State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index is composed of 100 listed companies selected for their high cash dividend yields, stable dividends, and certain scale and liquidity [2] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 16.84% of the total index weight, with significant contributors including COSCO Shipping Holdings (601919) and Jizhong Energy (000937) [2] - The ETF has seen a recent increase in scale, growing by 517.46 million yuan over the past week, and an increase of 5.4 million shares in the same period [1][2] Group 3 - High dividend strategies are characterized by returns from both capital gains and dividend income, focusing on mature lifecycle companies with strong profitability and cash flow [2] - The positive cycle of stable earnings, continuous dividends, and enhanced return on equity (ROE) supports the high success rate of these strategies [2] - The recent decline in the overall dividend yield of the Wind All A Index is attributed to rising stock prices and elevated valuations, which dilute the dividend yield [1][2]

Macro Insights - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar and a basket of currencies has been notable, with a 0.4% increase observed on August 28-29 [2] - The manufacturing PMI for August showed a slight recovery to 49.4% from 49.3% in July, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity [3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index rose to 50.3% from 50.1% in July, suggesting a stable outlook for the service sector [3] Investment Strategy - The technology sector is experiencing increased investor interest, with TMT transaction volume exceeding 40% of total market activity, indicating a shift towards fundamental-driven market behavior [5] - The report suggests focusing on sectors benefiting from Renminbi appreciation, such as consumption, non-bank financials, and electric new energy, which are currently at relatively low valuations [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining flexibility in investment strategies, particularly in the context of market volatility and sector rotation [8] Company Performance - Alibaba's Q1 FY26 revenue reached 247.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with adjusted EBITA declining by 13.7% [14] - Huichuan Technology reported a 26.73% increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 20.509 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.968 billion yuan, up 40.15% [18] - Zhonggu Logistics experienced a 41.6% increase in net profit for H1 2025, despite a 7.0% decline in revenue, attributed to high demand in the foreign trade container leasing market [19] Sector Analysis - The beverage sector showed strong sales performance, with revenue growth of 22.8% in Q2 2025, while the snack food sector faced challenges with a 0.3% decline [12] - The insurance sector is seeing a shift towards high-yield stocks, with the average allocation to FVOCI stocks increasing by 1.3 percentage points to 4.2% [10] - The real estate sector is under pressure, with China Overseas Development reporting a 4% decline in revenue for H1 2025, but maintaining a strong project pipeline for future growth [22]

Core Viewpoint - The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies in China for the first eight months of 2025 shows a significant decline, with total sales amounting to 23,270.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3% [3][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The total sales of the top 100 real estate companies from January to August 2025 reached 23,270.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 13.3% [3]. - The equity sales amount for the top 100 companies was 16,275.2 billion yuan, with an equity sales area of 83.828 million square meters [3]. - The top five companies by sales in the first eight months were Poly Development (181.2 billion yuan), Greentown China (156.3 billion yuan), China Overseas Property (150.3 billion yuan), China Resources Land (142.5 billion yuan), and China Merchants Shekou (124.05 billion yuan) [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - August is typically a slow sales month for the real estate market, with a reported 30% decrease in supply and a 12% month-on-month decline in transaction volume across 30 monitored cities [4][5]. - In August, the top 100 real estate companies achieved sales of 207.04 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.6% [5]. - Despite the overall decline, 33% of the top 100 companies reported month-on-month sales growth in August, with 21 companies experiencing growth exceeding 30% [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a potential recovery in September, driven by policy adjustments such as "recognizing houses but not loans" and lowering down payment ratios in major cities [6]. - The traditional peak sales season in September is expected to boost new home transaction volumes, with a gradual recovery in market confidence [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The adjustment of housing policies in Shanghai is expected to help reduce inventory and boost demand for improved housing [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a key focus for investment [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report emphasizes a focus on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities for investment opportunities [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Market - In the past week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 181.0 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 14.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% [23] - First-tier cities saw a new housing transaction area of 43.4 million square meters, up 11.1% month-on-month but down 21.1% year-on-year [23] - Second-tier cities recorded 92.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year increase of 10.2% [23] - Third-tier cities experienced a significant month-on-month increase of 56.7%, but a year-on-year decrease of 15.4% [23] Second-Hand Housing Market - The total transaction area for second-hand housing in 14 sample cities was 186.3 million square meters, down 3.3% month-on-month but up 12.2% year-on-year [32] - First-tier cities had a transaction area of 78.3 million square meters, with a slight month-on-month increase of 1.2% [32] - Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for second-hand housing reached 70.55 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.6% [32] Credit Bond Market - A total of 11 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, with a total issuance of 6.145 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.137 billion yuan from the previous week [42] - The net financing amount was -4.283 billion yuan, indicating a significant reduction in financing activity [42] - The majority of bonds issued were rated AAA, with a significant portion having maturities of over five years [42]

据证券之星公开数据整理，近期建发股份(600153)发布2025年中报。截至本报告期末，公司营业总收入 3153.21亿元，同比下降1.16%，归母净利润8.41亿元，同比下降29.87%。按单季度数据看，第二季度营 业总收入1715.48亿元，同比下降8.59%，第二季度归母净利润2.57亿元，同比下降56.85%。本报告期建 发股份公司应收账款体量较大，当期应收账款占最新年报归母净利润比达1035.23%。 本次财报公布的各项数据指标表现一般。其中，毛利率4.21%，同比减11.85%，净利率0.18%，同比减 66.39%，销售费用、管理费用、财务费用总计78.71亿元，三费占营收比2.5%，同比减8.59%，每股净资 产19.06元，同比增5.16%，每股经营性现金流6.16元，同比增183.72%，每股收益0.2元，同比减39.39% | 项目 | 2024年中报 | 2025年中报 | 同比增幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(元) | 3190.15亿 | 3153.21 亿 | -1.16% . | | 归母浄利润（元） | 11.99 Z | 8.41 ...

格隆汇8月29日丨建发股份(600153.SH)发布中报，2025上半年实现营业总收入3153.21亿元，同比下降 1.16%；归属母公司股东净利润8.41亿元，同比下降29.87%；基本每股收益为0.2元。 ...

其中，子公司建发房产实现合同销售金额708.30亿元（全口径），同比增长7.31%，权益销售金额 534.57亿元，同比增长5.07%；子公司联发集团实现合同销售金额134.07亿元（全口径），同比增长 29.19%，权益销售金额89.60亿元，同比增长56.27%。 公司在一、二线城市的全口径销售金额占比达到90%，全口径销售额超20亿元的城市数量达到10个。建 发房产"灯塔项目"陆续落地，北京"海晏"、厦门"宸启瑞湖"均两大灯塔项目于6月首开后均呈现出热销 态势。 上半年，建发房产在全国28个城市的销售规模位列业内前5名，且在杭州、厦门、南昌等城市的销售规 模位列前三。 上半年，公司实现营业收入3,153.21亿元，同比下降1.16%；实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润（以下 简称"归母净利润"）8.41亿元，同比下降29.87%；公司总资产达到8,891.93亿元，净资产达到2,283.63亿 元，归属于母公司所有者的净资产达到713.27 亿元。 公司上半年实现的归母净利润同比减少3.58亿元，主要源于家居商场运营业务分部减少2.13 亿元，以及 房地产业务分部减少1.43亿元，供应链运营业务分部与上年同 ...