Core Insights - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies in China reported a total sales revenue of 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [1] - The equity sales amount for the same group was 132.14 billion yuan [1] - The top ten companies by sales included Poly Developments, China Overseas Land, and China Resources Land, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [1] Sales Performance - The average sales revenue for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [2] - Companies ranked 11-30 had an average sales revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, a decline of 25.6% [2] - Companies ranked 31-50 reported an average sales revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, down 21.0% [2] Market Dynamics - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active due to policy changes [5] - The real estate industry is undergoing an adjustment, with a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition," leading to resource concentration among stronger companies [5] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 reported year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [5] Market Trends - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, while the second-hand housing market demonstrated notable growth, with transaction volumes increasing by 33% year-on-year [6] - The central government has been signaling stability in market expectations, emphasizing the importance of managing expectations to stabilize the real estate market [6] - Recent policy measures include lowering the down payment ratio for commercial property loans and adjusting monetary policy tools [6] Future Outlook - As the Chinese New Year approaches, real estate companies are expected to increase marketing efforts, which may sustain some activity in core city markets [7] - There are ongoing challenges for companies to convert financial restructuring into sustainable operational capabilities [7]

百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 2026年开年，百强房企1月卖房"成绩单"出炉。 1月31日，中指研究院发布数据显示，2026年1月，TOP100房企销售总额为1905.2亿元，同比下降18.9%；同期，TOP100房企权益销售额为1321.4亿元。 房企销售金额前十依次为：保利发展、中海地产、华润置地、绿城中国、中旅投资、招商蛇口、中国金茂、建发房产、万科、滨江集团，其中仅保利、中 海、华润单月销售过百亿。 对比上年同期，房企销售位次已经发生了较大变化。头部房企中，保利、中海、华润、绿城的顺序未变，但万科从上年1月的第5位，下滑至今年1月的第9 位。中旅投资短期内成为"黑马"，闯到今年1月房企全口径销售榜第5位。 TOP10随后的房企中，招商蛇口、建发房产、滨江集团变化不大、依然位列其中，但是华发股份从去年1月的第6位降至今年1月的第18位，同期中国铁建 从第10位降至第13位，中国金茂则从去年1月的第13位升至今年1月的第7位。 克而瑞数据显示，1月全国重点50城市新建商品住宅成交面积约810万平方米，表现较为清淡，新房市场整体进入淡季；同期，重点13城市二手房成交面积 约810万平方米，环比上升16% ...

Market Overview - The logistics sector increased by 0.68% on January 29, with Tian Shun Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4157.98, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14300.08, down 0.3% [1] Top Gainers in Logistics Sector - Tian Shun Co. (002800) closed at 16.68, up 3.86% with a trading volume of 90,800 shares and a turnover of 150 million yuan [1] - Jianfa Co. (600153) closed at 9.65, up 3.21% with a trading volume of 482,500 shares [1] - Hengji Daxin (002492) closed at 9.13, up 2.82% with a trading volume of 263,100 shares and a turnover of 240 million yuan [1] - Milkway (603713) closed at 63.79, up 2.62% with a trading volume of 36,000 shares and a turnover of 230 million yuan [1] - Jia You International (603871) closed at 13.81, up 2.07% with a trading volume of 99,600 shares [1] Top Losers in Logistics Sector - Changjiang Investment (600119) closed at 7.25, down 9.94% with a trading volume of 37,800 shares and a turnover of 27.42 million yuan [2] - ST Yuanshang (603813) closed at 39.90, down 3.69% with a trading volume of 6,332 shares and a turnover of 25.57 million yuan [2] - Pu Lu Tong (002769) closed at 11.57, down 3.26% with a trading volume of 158,100 shares [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The logistics sector experienced a net outflow of 27.94 million yuan from institutional investors and a net outflow of 199 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 227 million yuan [2] - Notable net inflows from retail investors were observed in several companies, including SF Holding (002352) with a net inflow of 16.21 million yuan [3] - China Foreign Transport (601598) had a significant net inflow of 39.42 million yuan from institutional investors, representing 20.76% of its trading volume [3]

A股上市20多年来，建发股份出现首次亏损。 近日，建发集团旗下建发股份（600153.SH）披露2025年业绩预告，预计归母净利润亏损52亿元至100亿元 ，扣非净利润亏损33 亿元至65亿元。 根据公告，亏损"主要系房地产业务子公司联发集团有限公司年内结算利润为负、存货跌价准备计提增加，以及家居商场运营业 务子公司红星美凯龙家居集团股份有限公司投资性房地产公允价值变动损失、各类减值准备计提增加所致。" 此前，联发集团与美凯龙（601828.SH）也相继发布了业绩预亏公告，其中，联发集团2025年归母净利润预计亏损80亿元至100 亿元；美凯龙预计2025年度归母净利润亏损150亿元至225亿元，扣非净利润预计亏损46亿元至58亿元。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进分析认为，房地产行业整体下行的态势，直接对企业经营造成冲击。建发股份上市20多年 首亏，既受行业调整的大环境影响，也与其自身业务模式密切相关。 计提减值准备 公开资料显示，建发股份是《财富》世界500强建发集团旗下核心成员企业，以供应链运营和房地产开发为双主业。在房地产开 发业务板块，建发股份旗下有两大核心地产平台，分别是建发房产和联发集团。此外 ...

分红方面，建发股份A股上市后累计派现190.39亿元。近三年，累计派现65.70亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，建发股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股1.11亿股，相比上期增加412.80万股。红利低波（512890）位居第四大流通股东，持股 4563.05万股，相比上期增加515.63万股。华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF（510880）位居第五大流通股东，持股 3866.46万股，相比上期增加213.16万股。中泰星元灵活配置混合A（006567）位居第七大流通股东，持 股2841.50万股，相比上期减少167.68万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第九大流通股东，持股 2532.41万股，相比上期减少48.01万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，厦门建发股份有限公司位于福建省厦门市思明区环岛东路1699号建发国际大厦29层，成立日 期1998年6月10日，上市日期1998年6月16日，公司主营业务涉及供应链运营、房地产开发。主营业务收 入构成为：供应链运营业务84.94%，房地产业务14.00%，家居商场运营业务1.06%。 建发股份所属申万行业为：交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant growth driven by technology in certain sectors, while also noting the substantial losses due to cyclical downturns in others [1] Performance Growth Highlights - **Zhongwei Company (688012)**: Expected net profit between 208 million to 218 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.74% to 34.93%, driven by increased recognition of plasma etching equipment and a surge in market demand [5] - **Lianchuang Optoelectronics (600363)**: Expected net profit between 43.5 million to 53.2 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.36% to 120.57%, attributed to significant growth in laser business and improved profitability in traditional sectors [6] - **Ruixin Microelectronics (603893)**: Expected net profit between 102.3 million to 110.3 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.97% to 85.42%, driven by rapid growth in the AIoT market and recognition of new AI technology [7] - **Sangfor Health (688336)**: Expected net profit around 290 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 311.35%, due to a significant collaboration with Pfizer and advancements in clinical research [8] - **Pulite (002324)**: Expected net profit growth of 155.76% to 194.73%, driven by the demand for high polymer materials in the automotive lightweight trend [9] - **Tonghua Dongbao (600867)**: Expected net profit around 124.21 million yuan, turning from loss to profit, driven by market share gains in insulin products [10] - **Suotong Development (603612)**: Expected net profit between 73 million to 85 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 167.98% to 212.03%, due to rising prices and demand in the prebaked anode industry [11] Major Performance Declines - **China Shipbuilding Technology (600072)**: Expected net loss between -260 million to -340 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of over 24 times, due to cyclical downturns in shipbuilding and high material costs [12] - **Silver Nonferrous Metals (601212)**: Expected net loss between -45 million to -67.5 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to legal disputes affecting financial performance [13] - **China Metallurgical Group (601618)**: Expected net profit between 130 million to 160 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 76.28% to 80.73%, impacted by the downturn in the construction industry [14] - **Jindi Group (600383)**: Expected net loss between -1.11 billion to -1.35 billion yuan, with increased losses due to declining sales and inventory impairments [15] - **Jianfa Co. (600153)**: Expected net loss between -1 billion to -520 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to increased impairments in real estate [16] Industry Trend Analysis - **Technology and Innovation-Driven Sectors**: Companies in semiconductor equipment, laser military applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals are experiencing rapid growth due to high demand in AIoT, national defense, and biomedicine [23] - **Traditional Cyclical Industries**: Sectors like coal and engineering machinery are facing significant adjustments due to demand shortages and price declines, leading to widespread performance pressures [24] - **Pharmaceutical Industry Disparities**: Innovative drugs are seeing explosive growth through external licensing, while traditional formulations and raw materials are significantly impacted by procurement policies [24] - **External Environment Uncertainties**: Factors such as international trade tensions and regulatory changes are significantly affecting corporate performance, necessitating enhanced risk management [24] - **Asset Quality Risks**: Many companies are reporting substantial asset impairment provisions, indicating potential inefficiencies in previous investments [24]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

开源证券研报指出，建发股份全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利，维持"买入"评级。公 司预计2025年度实现归母净利润为-100亿元到-52亿元，预计实现扣非归母净利润为-65亿元到-33亿元， 同比转亏。美凯龙及联发集团预计归母净利润为负，影响公司全年业绩。2025年，公司大宗商品业务核 心品类的经营总货量继续保持增长；消费品业务与行业头部企业深化合作，业务规模稳步提升；公司非 中国大陆的海外业务规模约140亿美元，同比+37%。公司2026-2030年供应链运营业务战略规划将围 绕"提升经济效益、提升市场地位、提升海外规模"三大战略目标发展供应链业务。 ...

Group 1 - A total of 1123 A-share listed companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 602 companies expecting profits and 521 companies anticipating losses [1][2] - Among the companies predicting profits, Zijin Mining leads with a forecasted net profit of 52 billion yuan, followed by Luoyang Molybdenum with 20.8 billion yuan [2][3] - The automotive sector, represented by SAIC Motor, is expected to see a significant profit increase of 438%-558%, the highest growth rate among the top ten profit forecast companies [2][3] Group 2 - The real estate sector dominates the list of companies forecasting significant losses, with China Fortune Land Development expected to lose between 16 billion and 24 billion yuan [3][4] - Other sectors facing losses include the photovoltaic industry, with Tongwei Co., TCL Zhonghuan, and Trina Solar among the top ten companies predicting losses [4][5] - JinkoSolar is projected to experience the largest decline in net profit, with a decrease of 6063.96%-7074.8% due to price fluctuations in the global photovoltaic industry [9][10] Group 3 - Companies like *ST Weir and Tonghua Dongbao are expected to see substantial profit growth, with *ST Weir forecasting a net profit increase of 8303.8%-9599.14% [6][8] - Approximately 260 companies are expected to have a net profit growth rate exceeding 100%, accounting for about one-fifth of the companies that have released forecasts [7][8] - The performance of companies in the photovoltaic sector is under pressure due to market conditions, impacting their profitability despite efforts to innovate and upgrade technology [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Xiamen State-owned Enterprise Jianfa Co., Ltd. reported its first loss since its listing over twenty years ago, with projected net profit attributable to shareholders ranging from -10 billion to -5.2 billion yuan for 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Jianfa Co. expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 to be between -10 billion and -5.2 billion yuan, with a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses estimated at -6.5 billion to -3.3 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company attributes the loss primarily to negative profit settlements from its real estate subsidiary, Lianfa Group, increased inventory impairment provisions, and losses from the fair value changes of investment properties held by its home furnishing subsidiary, Red Star Macalline [1][3]. Group 2: Subsidiary Performance - Lianfa Group is expected to report a negative net profit for 2025, with revenue from real estate projects declining year-on-year, leading to negative overall profit settlements [2][3]. - Red Star Macalline is also projected to incur a net loss for 2025, with ongoing weakness in the real estate market affecting demand in the home furnishing retail sector, resulting in significant declines in rental income and property values [3][5]. Group 3: Strategic Changes - Jianfa Co. has undergone significant organizational changes, including a leadership transition at Lianfa Group, with Wang Wenhuai replaced by Lin Weiguo as chairman, aiming to implement a new strategy focused on high-quality, competitive housing in first-tier cities [4][10]. - The company has faced challenges in transforming Lianfa Group, which has historically focused on third- and fourth-tier cities, leading to longer project turnover times and increased pressure during industry adjustments [5][14]. Group 4: Market Context - The real estate industry is experiencing deep adjustments, with Jianfa Co. facing growth pressures and difficulties in resource allocation between its two platforms, Lianfa Group and Jianfa Real Estate [14][15]. - Despite previous successes, Jianfa Real Estate's growth has slowed, with challenges in acquiring quality land in core cities and a decrease in profit margins due to market conditions [14][15].