有分析指出，目前以央国企为代表的行业中坚力量，开工工作整体积极有序。同时部分好地段的好房源 项目，依然有较多购房者认购，市场信心也增加。 此外，各地仍在进一步做好"保交房"工作。尤其是近期各地对于融资协调机制有关的金融政策将落实展 期制度，这也有助于稳定"白名单"制度中的融资工作，有助于更好确保"保交房"等工作的开展。 1月19日，国家统计局发布2025年全国房地产市场基本情况。数据显示，全国房地产开发投资82788亿 元，同比下降17.2%；新建商品房销售面积88101万平方米，同比下降8.7%；新建商品房销售额83937亿 元，同比下降12.6%。各项指标显示，房地产行业仍处于深度调整过程中，在动态变化中逐步筑底。 上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进在接受媒体采访时表示，要客观看到开发投资指标带来的压力，这 也与市场深度调整有关，尤其是企业端数量和投资情况都有深度调整。 行业深度调整仍在持续 国家统计局数据显示，2025年，房地产开发企业房屋施工面积659890万平方米，同比下降10.0%。其 中，住宅施工面积460123万平方米，下降10.3%。 房屋新开工面积58770万平方米，下降20.4%。其中，住 ...

厦门供应链"三巨头"亮剑！五年战略蓝图重磅发布 近日，厦门大宗商品供应链领域的"三巨头"——厦门象屿（600057）、厦门国贸（600755）、建发股份 （600153）——相继亮出五年战略蓝图，清晰描绘出2026年至2030年供应链头部企业的跃升路径。 建发集团则聚焦提升"专业化、国际化、数智化、预见力、资源力"五大核心竞争力，筑牢主业高质量发 展根基。在资源力层面，公司将统筹、优化全盘资源配置，并通过股权投资、战略合作和自主建设等方 式，获取并整合产业链上下游关键节点的重要物流与产业资源，提高对核心要素的掌控能力，提升供应 链的安全性与稳定性，比如在物流层面，对内构建统一的物流支持体系，对外加大物流投资，增强物流 体系综合实力。此外，公司将主动链接外部资源，构建独特的资源组合与产业生态，增强行业话语权和 影响力，提升企业核心竞争力。 通过从单纯交易转向资源整合，企业能够深度嵌入产业链上下游，显著增强对全链条的影响力与话语 权。尤其是在传统贸易领域，资源掌控不仅是抵御外部风险的关键屏障，更是构建差异化竞争优势、形 成行业领导地位的核心要素，最终推动企业从被动参与者转变为产业链的主导者。 出海战略再升级 随着 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand home prices fell by 6.1% in 2025, with core cities experiencing a significant decline [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investments in this area can reflect broader economic trends [4]. - It notes that the competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select private firms performing well in land acquisition and sales [4]. Summary by Sections New Home Market - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.0% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing price changes of -1.7%, -2.5%, and -3.7% respectively [1][11]. - The report indicates that new home prices increased in 5 cities while decreasing in 65 cities throughout the year, with Shanghai showing a consistent month-on-month increase [1]. Second-Hand Home Market - The second-hand home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month and 6.1% year-on-year, with all cities experiencing a decline [2][12]. - The report notes that after a brief stabilization in some cities post-September 2024, the second-hand home prices resumed their downward trend starting in the second quarter of 2025 [2]. Transaction Volume - For new homes, the transaction volume in 30 cities was 117.7 million square meters, reflecting a 1.3% decrease month-on-month and a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [3][25]. - In the second-hand market, the transaction volume in 15 cities totaled 213.9 million square meters, showing a 3.9% increase month-on-month but a 4.0% decrease year-on-year [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate-related stocks, particularly in first-tier and select second-tier cities, as these areas are expected to benefit from policy changes and market dynamics [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [4].

Core Insights - The report indicates a sustained optimistic sentiment in the real estate sector, suggesting that the market performance is likely to continue positively throughout the year [1]. Group 1: Policy Environment - Central policies have seen few new measures, maintaining a loose stance towards the real estate sector. Recent actions include the extension of tax incentives for public rental housing and a reduction in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][16]. - Local policies focus on long-term strategies in major cities, with initiatives aimed at urban renewal and optimizing land use policies [5][16]. Group 2: Transaction Performance - New home transactions remain low, with a year-on-year decline of 31.3% in the first 22 days of January, while second-hand home transactions have shown a year-on-year increase of 14.1% [5][9]. - The number of second-hand home subscriptions has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 59.8% in the same period [5][9]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The new housing supply is in a seasonal downturn, with a 12% decrease in new home launches week-on-week. However, the transaction volume slightly exceeds the supply, indicating a market adjustment [5][9]. - The land supply and transaction scale have contracted sharply, with a 67% year-on-year decrease in land transaction value [5][9]. Group 4: Sector Performance - The real estate sector has shown strong performance, with a 5.2% increase in the SW real estate index, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.8 percentage points [5][9]. - Major real estate companies have experienced notable stock price increases, with leading firms like Greentown and China Merchants Shekou seeing significant gains [5][9]. Group 5: C-REITs Overview - The C-REITs sector has seen a 2.29% increase in the comprehensive return index, with 68 out of 78 REITs reporting gains this week [5][9].

投资建议：公司的供应链及建发房产分部仍经营稳健，预计持续贡献公司利润；本次联发集团及美凯龙 分部计提大额减值后，能够减轻压制公司业绩及估值的利空因素，公司有望轻装上阵。我们预计公司 2025-2027 年的归母净利润分别为-94.2、29.3、44.6 亿元，对应2026 及2027 年的PE 分别为9.3x、6.1x， 维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：大宗商品价格剧烈波动，房地产市场销售低迷，政策不及预期。 同时，美凯龙对各类资产截至 2025 年末的可回收金额进行了初步测算，计提了相应的减值准备。 公司中期分红每股0.2 元，业绩转亏不影响公司2025 全年每股0.7 元的分红：公司2025 年中期利润分配 方案为每股现金分红0.2 元，共计派发现金红利5.8 亿元。我们认为2025 年公司预亏，主要为非现金性 损益，对经营性现金流影响较小，且母公司累计未分配利润仍为正值，不影响分红。本次公司公告再度 承诺2025 年度每股现金分红不低于0.7 元（2024 年第二次临时股东大会通过的《关于交易完成后增强股 东回报规划的议案》已承诺）。 事件：2026 年1 月23 日，公司发布2025 年度业绩预告：预计 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][29]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives emphasizing the stabilization of the real estate market. The report notes a positive shift in industry sentiment and anticipates favorable policy developments in the future [3][29]. - The report identifies attractive valuation levels for quality companies, with some firms' price-to-book (PB) ratios at historical lows, making them appealing investment opportunities [3][29]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities experienced a 0.6% decrease in transactions, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 17.7% increase [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, down 0.2% week-on-week. Year-to-date figures show a 9.6% decline compared to the previous January [13][29]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [23][29]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to promote urban renewal, with various cities actively developing urban renewal plans. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of high-quality real estate development and the need for tailored policies [29][33]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a 17.2% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment for 2025, with new residential sales area down 8.7% [29][33]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have released their expected net profit for 2025, with notable losses projected for companies like Jianfa Holdings and Jindi Group, while Poly Development anticipates a profit of 1.03 billion yuan [37][29]. - Financing activities are active among various firms, with China Overseas Development issuing bonds totaling 25 billion yuan, and Vanke's bond extension proposal receiving approval [37][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Buy" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in second-hand home subscriptions and a strengthening of transaction confidence [7][15]. - The average daily subscription for second-hand homes in 79 cities reached 3,404 units from January 1 to January 22, 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.1% compared to the same period in 2025 [16][27]. - The report highlights that the market is experiencing a self-driven recovery without significant large-scale stimulus policies being implemented [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Second-Hand Homes: Significant Growth in Subscriptions and Record High Conversion Rates - Overall transactions show a recovery in lower-tier cities, although this has not yet fully translated into net signing [15]. - In key cities, second-hand home subscriptions in first-tier cities like Guangzhou are relatively stable, while many lower-tier cities are experiencing growth [31]. - The conversion rate of visits to transactions has reached a new high, with a 5.6% conversion rate in 70 cities, up from the previous quarter [35]. 2. New Homes: Low Net Signing Levels Across All Tiers - The average daily net signing for new homes in 45 cities was 250,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.1% [29]. - All tiers of cities are experiencing varying degrees of decline in new home net signing, with first-tier cities seeing the most significant drops [29]. 3. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of January 22, 2026, the average price of second-hand homes in 33 cities has decreased by 17.9% year-on-year compared to 2025 [41]. - The report indicates that the price adjustments in lower-tier cities are more pronounced, aligning closer to residents' psychological expectations, which has led to increased subscriptions [42]. - The report notes a decline in the number of second-hand listings, particularly in key cities, due to factors such as the removal of ineffective listings by agents and homeowners withdrawing listings amid falling prices [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for quality real estate companies and commercial properties [3][4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector in China has undergone significant adjustments, with recent central government directives aimed at stabilizing the market. The emphasis on "high-quality development" suggests a shift in policy that could lead to positive changes in the industry [3][4]. - The report notes that the current valuation levels for quality companies are historically low, making them attractive investment opportunities [3][4]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.727 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.6%. However, year-on-year comparisons show a decline of 38.2% for January [4][7]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities decreased by 0.6%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 17.7% [4][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - For the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.32 million square meters, a slight decrease of 0.2% week-on-week. Year-on-year, January transactions are down by 9.6% [4][13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, 15 cities saw a total of 260,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.69, indicating a healthy demand relative to new listings. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.964 million square meters, down 0.5% from the previous week [4][24]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights a series of government initiatives aimed at promoting urban renewal, with a focus on addressing key issues such as planning, funding, and operational challenges. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has indicated that there is significant potential for high-quality development in the real estate sector [3][31]. - Specific policies include Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes urban renewal as a key strategy for enhancing urban quality and development [3][31]. Company Announcements - Several real estate companies have reported their expected net profits for 2025, with notable figures including China Vanke's bond extension proposal and various financing activities from companies like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [3][41].

文|隔雾 编辑|隔雾 前言 周五收盘，大盘还在死撑面子，看似风平浪静，谁能料到，灯一关，A股直接上演"百鬼夜行"。 就在昨夜，65家公司扎堆坦白罪行，4个曾经浓眉大眼的行业龙头，联手烧掉了500亿真金白银，这还不算完，还有3家公司直接领了"死亡通知书"。 指数在假装坚挺，个股却在疯狂截肢，这哪是什么年报预告？这分明是针对散户钱包的深夜屠杀。 豪门崩塌 这一夜，不知道多少人盯着账户里冰冷的代码，彻夜难眠，这潭水，深不见底，小公司亏损顶多算擦破皮，巨头暴雷那是直接割断了大动脉。 看看这份淌血的榜单：红星美凯龙、金地集团、建发股份。 昔日的"地产系"三兄弟，如今成了比惨大会的领头羊，美凯龙，预亏上限225亿；金地，135亿；建发，100亿。 光这三家挥霍掉的钱，就足够买下一个中型板块，尤其是红星美凯龙，当年可是家居界的"扛把子"，中产阶级眼里的香饽饽。 试想一下昨晚的场景：你颤抖着手点开那份PDF，期待的分红没看见，只见一个刺眼的负号，后面跟着一串长得让人眼晕的数字，225亿。 那一刻，手里的热茶瞬间结冰，屏幕上跳动的哪里是数字，分明是无数家庭资产大厦崩塌时，钢筋崩断的脆响。 理由？公告写得冠冕堂皇："计提减值"、 ...

克而瑞数据显示：2025年超七成房企净利润同比下滑，存货减值与结转压力，化作全行业共同的困局，即便是以往被视为"压舱石"的国央企， 它们或许步伐更稳，却也在这轮漫长的困局中感受到了切实的压力。 近日，建发股份（600153.SH）披露2025年业绩预告，其子公司联发集团因年内结算利润承压、存货跌价准备计提增加，将出现亏损。联发的 人事变动也引发业内关注——建发房产总经理林伟国拟升任建发房产董事长，并同步拟出任联发集团董事长，意味着建发集团旗下房地产板块 将由其统一执掌。事实上，年底多家房企不约而同地启动人事与组织变革，这既是应对当下市场压力的必要举措，也为企业的战略转型铺平道 路。 面对行业压力，联发正通过一系列策略调整应对周期考验，如投资聚焦一、二线高能级城市，优化存量资产结构以及聚焦特定客群进行产品定 位等等，勾勒出一条适应变化、寻求稳健发展的转型探索路径。 这种聚焦策略，在当前行业利润普遍承压的阶段，体现了一种"以短期阵痛换取长期健康"的战略和决心。它意味着联发主动收缩战线，将有限 的资源集中投入于更精准适配核心战略的区域，为"新青年"产品的开发和去化，构筑了坚实的客群基础，以稳健经营推动企业向高质量发 ...