Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant growth driven by technology in certain sectors, while also noting the substantial losses due to cyclical downturns in others [1] Performance Growth Highlights - **Zhongwei Company (688012)**: Expected net profit between 208 million to 218 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.74% to 34.93%, driven by increased recognition of plasma etching equipment and a surge in market demand [5] - **Lianchuang Optoelectronics (600363)**: Expected net profit between 43.5 million to 53.2 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.36% to 120.57%, attributed to significant growth in laser business and improved profitability in traditional sectors [6] - **Ruixin Microelectronics (603893)**: Expected net profit between 102.3 million to 110.3 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.97% to 85.42%, driven by rapid growth in the AIoT market and recognition of new AI technology [7] - **Sangfor Health (688336)**: Expected net profit around 290 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 311.35%, due to a significant collaboration with Pfizer and advancements in clinical research [8] - **Pulite (002324)**: Expected net profit growth of 155.76% to 194.73%, driven by the demand for high polymer materials in the automotive lightweight trend [9] - **Tonghua Dongbao (600867)**: Expected net profit around 124.21 million yuan, turning from loss to profit, driven by market share gains in insulin products [10] - **Suotong Development (603612)**: Expected net profit between 73 million to 85 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 167.98% to 212.03%, due to rising prices and demand in the prebaked anode industry [11] Major Performance Declines - **China Shipbuilding Technology (600072)**: Expected net loss between -260 million to -340 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of over 24 times, due to cyclical downturns in shipbuilding and high material costs [12] - **Silver Nonferrous Metals (601212)**: Expected net loss between -45 million to -67.5 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to legal disputes affecting financial performance [13] - **China Metallurgical Group (601618)**: Expected net profit between 130 million to 160 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 76.28% to 80.73%, impacted by the downturn in the construction industry [14] - **Jindi Group (600383)**: Expected net loss between -1.11 billion to -1.35 billion yuan, with increased losses due to declining sales and inventory impairments [15] - **Jianfa Co. (600153)**: Expected net loss between -1 billion to -520 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to increased impairments in real estate [16] Industry Trend Analysis - **Technology and Innovation-Driven Sectors**: Companies in semiconductor equipment, laser military applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals are experiencing rapid growth due to high demand in AIoT, national defense, and biomedicine [23] - **Traditional Cyclical Industries**: Sectors like coal and engineering machinery are facing significant adjustments due to demand shortages and price declines, leading to widespread performance pressures [24] - **Pharmaceutical Industry Disparities**: Innovative drugs are seeing explosive growth through external licensing, while traditional formulations and raw materials are significantly impacted by procurement policies [24] - **External Environment Uncertainties**: Factors such as international trade tensions and regulatory changes are significantly affecting corporate performance, necessitating enhanced risk management [24] - **Asset Quality Risks**: Many companies are reporting substantial asset impairment provisions, indicating potential inefficiencies in previous investments [24]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" compared to the market [2] Core Insights - New home sales in December showed a month-on-month increase of 33.6%, with a year-on-year decline of 32.1%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to previous months [5] - The second-hand home sales saw a year-on-year decline of 30.7% in December, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7%, reflecting a worsening trend in the second-hand market [5] - The overall inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with an average de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] Summary by Sections New Home Sales - December new home sales area increased by 33.6% month-on-month, but decreased by 32.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.6 percentage points [5] - For the entire year of 2025, new home sales decreased by 14%, with a year-on-year decline of 13.7% across 40 cities [5] - First-tier cities experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.8%, while second-tier and third-fourth tier cities saw declines of 12.6% and 13.6% respectively [5] Second-Hand Home Sales - December saw a year-on-year decline in second-hand home sales of 30.7%, with a month-on-month increase of 12.7% [5] - The overall second-hand home sales for 2025 decreased by 4%, with first-tier cities still showing positive growth [5] Inventory and De-stocking - The inventory of new homes decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and 8.3% year-on-year, with a de-stocking period of 17.8 months [5] - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have de-stocking periods within 12 months [5] Land Market - The land market in December showed a month-on-month increase of 126.7%, but a year-on-year decline of 8.9% [5] - The average land price was 1392 RMB per square meter, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [5] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies saw a year-on-year sales decline of 20% in 2025, with December sales showing a narrowing decline of 26.7% [5] - The land acquisition amount for December decreased by 58.1% year-on-year, while the total acquisition amount for 2025 increased by 2.6% [5] Financing - The financing scale for the real estate industry decreased in December, but showed a year-on-year increase for the entire year [5] - The total issuance of domestic and foreign bonds and ABS in 2025 was 596.7 billion RMB, a 6% increase year-on-year [5] Policy - The central government emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and reducing the value-added tax on personal home sales to 3% [5] - Local policies have been adjusted to optimize purchase restrictions and loan policies in cities like Beijing [5] Sector Performance - The real estate sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index in December, with an absolute return of -4.0% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [5]

开源证券研报指出，建发股份全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利，维持"买入"评级。公 司预计2025年度实现归母净利润为-100亿元到-52亿元，预计实现扣非归母净利润为-65亿元到-33亿元， 同比转亏。美凯龙及联发集团预计归母净利润为负，影响公司全年业绩。2025年，公司大宗商品业务核 心品类的经营总货量继续保持增长；消费品业务与行业头部企业深化合作，业务规模稳步提升；公司非 中国大陆的海外业务规模约140亿美元，同比+37%。公司2026-2030年供应链运营业务战略规划将围 绕"提升经济效益、提升市场地位、提升海外规模"三大战略目标发展供应链业务。 ...

Group 1 - A total of 1123 A-share listed companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 602 companies expecting profits and 521 companies anticipating losses [1][2] - Among the companies predicting profits, Zijin Mining leads with a forecasted net profit of 52 billion yuan, followed by Luoyang Molybdenum with 20.8 billion yuan [2][3] - The automotive sector, represented by SAIC Motor, is expected to see a significant profit increase of 438%-558%, the highest growth rate among the top ten profit forecast companies [2][3] Group 2 - The real estate sector dominates the list of companies forecasting significant losses, with China Fortune Land Development expected to lose between 16 billion and 24 billion yuan [3][4] - Other sectors facing losses include the photovoltaic industry, with Tongwei Co., TCL Zhonghuan, and Trina Solar among the top ten companies predicting losses [4][5] - JinkoSolar is projected to experience the largest decline in net profit, with a decrease of 6063.96%-7074.8% due to price fluctuations in the global photovoltaic industry [9][10] Group 3 - Companies like *ST Weir and Tonghua Dongbao are expected to see substantial profit growth, with *ST Weir forecasting a net profit increase of 8303.8%-9599.14% [6][8] - Approximately 260 companies are expected to have a net profit growth rate exceeding 100%, accounting for about one-fifth of the companies that have released forecasts [7][8] - The performance of companies in the photovoltaic sector is under pressure due to market conditions, impacting their profitability despite efforts to innovate and upgrade technology [9][10]

智通财经记者 | 王婷婷 智通财经编辑 | 李慎 厦门国企建发股份录得上市二十多年来首次亏损。 近日，建发股份(600153.SH)发布2025年业绩预告，公告显示，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者 的净利润为-100亿元至-52亿元，预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利 润-65亿元到-33亿元。 对于亏损原因，建发股份在公告中表示，"主要系房地产业务子公司联发集团有限公司年内结算利润为 负、存货跌价准备计提增加，以及家居商场运营业务子公司红星美凯龙家居集团股份有限公司投资性房 地产公允价值变动损失、各类减值准备计提增加所致。" "2025年四季度房价加速下跌，叠加联发策略上偏重打折去库存、回笼现金，所以就会在财务层面做比 较多的库存减值，最终影响导致合并报表亏损。"知情人士告诉智通财经。 红星和联发拖累 这是建发股份A股上市以来首次出现亏损。 最新公告指出，2025年，建发股份的供应链运营业务继续保持稳健盈利，但子公司联发集团预计2025年 度归母净利润为负值，子公司美凯龙预计2025年度归母净利润为负值。 可以说，联发集团和红星美凯龙是导致建发股份出现亏损的直接原因。 ...

1月27日，建发股份盘中下跌2.04%，截至10:08，报9.14元/股，成交6363.08万元，换手率0.24%，总市 值265.02亿元。 分红方面，建发股份A股上市后累计派现190.39亿元。近三年，累计派现65.70亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，建发股份十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股1.11亿股，相比上期增加412.80万股。红利低波（512890）位居第四大流通股东，持股 4563.05万股，相比上期增加515.63万股。华泰柏瑞上证红利ETF（510880）位居第五大流通股东，持股 3866.46万股，相比上期增加213.16万股。中泰星元灵活配置混合A（006567）位居第七大流通股东，持 股2841.50万股，相比上期减少167.68万股。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第九大流通股东，持股 2532.41万股，相比上期减少48.01万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，厦门建发股份有限公司位于福建省厦门市思明区环岛东路1699号建发国际大厦29层，成立日 期1998年6月10日，上市日期1998年6月16日，公司主营业务涉及供应链运营 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 二手房成交回暖，《求是》发文提及城市更新 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/1/17-26/1/23） 投资要点： 风险提示：房地产量价超预期下行、房地产融资资金趋紧、房地产政策不及预期。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数上升 0.8%、深证成指上升 1.1%、创业板指下跌 0.3%、沪深 300 下 跌 0.6%、房地产（申万）上升 5.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：*ST 荣控(+15.8%)、 顺发恒能(+15.7%)、城投控股(+14.9%)、大悦城(+14.4%)、珠免集团(+12.6%)，涨跌幅后五 的分别为：城建发展(-6.0%)、中洲控股(-2.8%)、电子城(-2.1%)、特发服务(-1.9 ...

Group 1: Financial Sector Insights - The banking sector is expected to maintain a proactive lending strategy in early 2026, with new loans in January projected to be around 5.2-5.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [16] - Large banks are anticipated to have a strong advantage in expanding their balance sheets due to favorable deposit conditions, with total deposits expected to exceed expectations [17] - The wealth management sector saw a significant increase, with the scale reaching 33.29 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking an 11.15% year-on-year growth [22] Group 2: Energy and New Energy Sector - The space photovoltaic sector is entering a new era with silicon-based PERC solar cells being adopted for low-orbit satellites, significantly reducing costs compared to traditional III-V multi-junction solar cells [27] - P-type HJT solar cells are identified as the most suitable technology for space applications due to their superior radiation resistance and lower cost [28] - The market for space-based solar power is expected to expand significantly, driven by initiatives like SpaceX's plan to deploy 100GW of solar energy satellites [29] Group 3: Electronics Sector - Major passive component manufacturers have announced price increases due to rising costs of raw materials, leading to a new upward cycle in the passive components market [32] - The demand for passive components is expected to remain strong, particularly in emerging sectors such as AI servers and electric vehicles, potentially extending the current upcycle [35] - The average price of passive components is projected to rise, driven by inflationary pressures and increased demand from high-end applications [36] Group 4: Agriculture and Livestock Sector - The white feather chicken market is experiencing price support due to supply constraints from overseas breeding disruptions, with prices averaging 7.44 yuan/kg in December 2025 [38] - The yellow feather chicken market is under pressure, with prices declining to 11.77 yuan/kg in December, influenced by seasonal demand and reduced breeding activity [39] - Egg prices are also declining, with a significant number of laying hens expected to be culled, which may provide some support for future prices [40] Group 5: Real Estate and Construction Sector - Jianfa Co. is forecasting a significant decline in net profit for 2025, primarily due to poor performance from subsidiaries and increased impairment losses [43] - The company's supply chain operations remain profitable, with overseas business growth of 37% year-on-year, indicating resilience in certain segments [45] - Real estate sales figures are down, with Jianfa's sales amounting to 1220.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 9% year-on-year decrease [46]

每日经济新闻 （记者 曾健辉） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每经AI快讯，开源证券1月26日发布研报称，给予建发股份（600153.SH）"买入"评级。评级理由主要包 括：1）美凯龙及联发集团预计归母净利润为负，影响公司全年业绩；2）供应链运营业务稳健盈利，海 外业务规模同比增长；3）房产销售数据有所下降。风险提示：大宗商品经营不及预期、房地产行业恢 复不及预期。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——国际金价冲破5000美元！7年涨了280%，什么时候才见顶？专家：关键还 看美元，重点关注国际货币体系、降息和科技革命 ...

交通运输/物流 建发股份（600153.SH） 全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利 2026 年 01 月 26 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 股价走势图 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 建发股份 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《营收利润同比收缩，回款比例保持 高位—公司信息更新报告》-2025.9.2 《营收规模有所收缩，增强回报保护 股 东 利 益 — 公 司 信 息 更 新 报 告 》 -2025.4.17 ——公司信息更新报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | |  | 全年业绩短暂承压下滑，供应链运营业务稳健盈利，维持"买入"评级 | 建发股份发布 2025 年业绩预告，公司预计 2025 年度实现归母净利润为-100 亿元 到-52 亿元，预计实现扣非归母净利润为-65 亿元到-33 亿元，同比转亏。受美凯 龙业 ...