Core Viewpoint - The company, Jianfa Co., has experienced a significant shift in market perception due to a profit warning, indicating a potential net loss for 2025, primarily driven by pressures in its real estate and home operation businesses, despite stable performance in its supply chain operations [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Jianfa Co. has maintained steady growth since its listing, with net profits of 11.259 billion yuan, 16.850 billion yuan, and an expected 5.820 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, with supply chain business revenue consistently accounting for over 75% [2]. - The company's supply chain operations remain a strong profit driver, with overseas business reaching 14 billion USD in 2025, a 37% year-on-year increase [5]. - Despite the challenges, Jianfa Co. has consistently ranked in the top 20 for comprehensive strength among real estate developers, achieving 8th place in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Industry Context - The real estate market in 2025 is characterized by a "high open low walk" trend, with a significant decline in development investment, down 15.9% year-on-year from January to November [3]. - Jianfa's real estate platform set a sales target of 150 billion yuan for 2025 but only achieved 122.1 billion yuan, reflecting a shortfall of nearly 30 billion yuan and a year-on-year decline of over 10 billion yuan [3]. - The performance of Jianfa's subsidiary, Lianfa Group, has deteriorated since 2021, with a net profit of -1.642 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting the struggles within the real estate sector [4]. Group 3: Strategic Developments - Jianfa Co. and Lianfa Group invested 6.286 billion yuan to acquire a 29.95% stake in Red Star Macalline, aiming to create a synergistic ecosystem of "real estate + home + supply chain" [5]. - The home retail sector, including Red Star Macalline, is facing demand pressures, with a 3.33% year-on-year decline in sales for large-scale building materials and home furnishing markets [5]. - The central economic work conference in 2026 emphasizes "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the real estate industry [6].

Group 1 - The logistics sector experienced a rise of 0.75% on January 22, with Jushen Co., Ltd. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] - Jushen Co., Ltd. saw a closing price of 22.21, with a significant increase of 10.00% and a trading volume of 184,300 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 406 million yuan [1] Group 2 - The logistics sector had a net inflow of 64.2 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 12.4 million yuan [2] - Major stocks in the logistics sector showed varied performance, with Guohui Logistics experiencing a net inflow of 35.43 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 26.30 million yuan [3] - The stock of SF Holding had a net inflow of 31.04 million yuan from main funds, despite a net outflow of 63.58 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

创下近10年首亏的建发股份（600153）在内部子公司开启了人事更迭。 近日，市场有消息称，建发股份旗下子公司建发房产迎来了新董事长，原总经理林伟国升任董事长，并 继续担任建发国际董事会主席。 林伟国于2007年加入建发房产，历任财务总监、总经理助理、副总经理，主导"灯塔项目"战略，聚焦杭 州、成都等核心城市高端市场。 业绩是他升任的主要推动力。 2025年，建发房产保持增长，前三季度为建发股份房地产业务分部贡献归母净利润7.8亿元，同比增加 1.21亿元。前三季度，建发房产实现合同销售金额957.4亿元，同比增长12.6%，权益销售金额711.5亿 元，同比增长7.6%。 几乎同一时间，建发股份另一家子公司联发集团同样出现高层变动，情况却完全相反。 信息显示，联发集团董事长王文怀被曝已经辞职并不再担任建发集团旗下任何子公司职位，目前正在走 离职审计流程。《国际金融报》记者据此向联发方面求证，对方表示王文怀因个人原因离开。 王文怀是2025年2月初上任的，至今尚不足一年。彼时，"建发系"进行了一轮罕见的人事调整，原本在 建发集团分管投资多年的王文怀"空降"联发集团出任董事长，另有数名核心管理层职位发生变动。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is experiencing significant pressure on both investment and sales, with a notable decline in investment and sales figures for 2025 [2][3]. - The report anticipates a slow recovery in investment, with adjustments made to the 2026 forecasts for new starts, completions, and overall investment [2][3]. - The sales sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with expectations for policy support to drive demand recovery, although supply constraints may limit this recovery [2][3]. Investment Side Summary - For the year 2025, total real estate development investment reached 828.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.2%, with December alone showing a drop of 35.8% [3][20]. - New starts decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, while completions fell by 18.1% [3][20]. - The report adjusts the 2026 forecast for new starts to -7.7% (originally -4.6%) and overall investment to -9.1% (originally -7.5%) [2][20]. Sales Side Summary - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December sales area declining by 15.6% [21][31]. - The average sales price for properties decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with December's average price showing a 9.5% decline [30][31]. - The report revises the 2026 sales forecast to a decrease of 7.6% for sales area and 9.4% for sales revenue [35][31]. Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 930 billion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 26.7% decline [36][37]. - Domestic loans saw a significant drop of 45% in December, while self-raised funds decreased by 15.7% [36][37]. - The report suggests that funding sources are expected to gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [39].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, focusing on high-quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [3][4][21]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 17.2% in total real estate development investment for 2025, and a significant drop of 35.8% in December alone [4][21]. - The sales side shows a narrowing decline in sales area, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% for 2025, and a 15.6% drop in December [22][32]. - The funding side indicates a continued decline in funding sources, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in total funding for real estate development in 2025, and a sharp 26.7% drop in December [37]. Summary by Sections Investment Side - Total real estate development investment for 2025 reached 828.8 billion yuan, down 17.2% year-on-year, with December's investment declining by 35.8% [4][21]. - New construction area decreased by 20.4% year-on-year, with December showing a 19.4% decline [20][21]. - The report adjusts 2026 forecasts, predicting a 7.7% decline in new construction and a 9.1% drop in investment [21]. Sales Side - The total sales area for 2025 was 880 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, with December's sales area declining by 15.6% [22][32]. - The total sales revenue for 2025 was 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% year-on-year decrease, with December's sales revenue down 23.6% [24][32]. - The average selling price of commercial housing for 2025 was 9,527 yuan per square meter, down 4.3% year-on-year [31][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development in 2025 amounted to 9.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.4% year-on-year, with December's funding sources down 26.7% [37]. - Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decline of 7.3%, with a significant drop of 45% in December [37]. - The report anticipates that funding sources will gradually improve due to ongoing policy relaxations [37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The real estate market has shown a significant decline in sales, with a year-on-year decrease in sales area of 8.7% and sales amount down by 12.6% for the year 2025 [4][13] - The trend of "price for volume" is evident, with the average selling price of commercial housing dropping by 4.3% year-on-year [4][13] - New construction area has decreased for four consecutive years, with a decline of 20.4% in 2025 [5][20] - The total investment in real estate development has also seen a significant drop of 17.2% year-on-year [6][24] - The cash flow pressure on real estate companies remains high, with a 13.4% year-on-year decrease in funds available to developers [6][26] Summary by Sections Sales Data - In 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing was 881 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% [4][13] - The sales amount reached 8.39 trillion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year [4][13] - December 2025 saw a sharp decline in sales area and amount, with year-on-year decreases of 15.6% and 23.6%, respectively [4][13] Construction Data - The new construction area for 2025 was 588 million square meters, reflecting a 20.4% decrease [5][20] - The completion area was 603 million square meters, down 18.1% year-on-year [5][20] Investment Data - Real estate development investment totaled 8.28 trillion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 17.2% [6][24] - The funds available to real estate developers were 9.31 trillion yuan, down 13.4% year-on-year [6][26] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [7][34] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery are also highlighted, such as Longfor Group and New City Holdings [7][34] - Quality property management firms with strong service standards are recommended, including China Resources Mixc Life and Greentown Service [7][34]

Core Viewpoint - Jianfa Co., Ltd. has officially released its supply chain operation business strategic plan for 2026-2030, aiming to become an internationally leading supply chain operator amidst global economic uncertainties [1] Strategic Goals - The company will focus on three strategic goals over the next five years: enhancing economic efficiency, improving market position, and expanding overseas scale [1] Core Competencies - Jianfa will strengthen five core competencies: specialization, internationalization, digital intelligence, foresight, and resource capability to lay a solid foundation for high-quality development [3] Specialized Operations - The company will continue to deepen its specialized operating model, strengthen core categories, and enhance the value of industry chain services through differentiated management [3] International Expansion - Jianfa aims to replicate its business model overseas, focusing on resource acquisition in regions like South America, Africa, and Central Asia, while also tapping into high-demand markets in developed countries [3] Digital Intelligence - The company plans to upgrade its operations through digital intelligence, utilizing user demand and technological innovation to create a comprehensive digital platform for decision-making and risk management [3] Foresight and Resource Optimization - Jianfa will enhance its strategic planning and industry research capabilities, optimizing resource allocation and integrating key logistics and industry resources to improve supply chain security and stability [5] Innovation and Growth - The company will cultivate a second growth curve by leveraging its existing resources and exploring new segments such as "new consumption" and "artificial intelligence," aiming for long-term growth [6] Key Development Phase - The next five years are critical for Jianfa as it transitions from being "domestically excellent" to "internationally leading," focusing on professional operations, international expansion, and innovation-driven growth [7]

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous improvement in the real estate sector, driven by favorable policies and a strengthening of the second-hand housing market [1] - The overall industry rating remains at "Buy," consistent with previous assessments [2] Group 1: Policy Developments - Central government policies are increasingly supportive, with the Ministry of Finance announcing an extension of the tax exemption policy for second-hand housing transactions until the end of 2027 [5][14] - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and a decrease in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][15] - The publication of multiple articles in "Qiushi" magazine indicates a heightened focus on real estate and urban development, suggesting a strong policy commitment [5][17] Group 2: Market Performance - The second-hand housing market has shown significant improvement, with a 40.3% year-on-year increase in transactions for the first 15 days of January, despite a 10% decline compared to the previous week [5][23] - New housing transactions remain low, with a 29.7% year-on-year decrease in sales volume, although there was a 9.9% week-on-week increase [5][23][26] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in 33 cities increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in prices [5][25] Group 3: Land Market Dynamics - The total land transfer revenue remains low, with a 25.2% week-on-week decline and a 54.3% year-on-year decrease, reflecting weak market conditions [5][24] - There are localized instances of structural premiums in third and fourth-tier cities, suggesting potential opportunities despite overall market weakness [5][24] Group 4: Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the real estate sector, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Development, maintain a "Buy" rating with reasonable valuations projected for 2025 and 2026 [6] - The report includes detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, which suggest potential for growth in the sector [6][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing government support for the real estate sector through tax policies aimed at reducing transaction costs and promoting housing demand, particularly for first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade [10][11] - The real estate market is currently experiencing a significant decline in new home sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 38.1% in new home transactions across 30 cities [2][23] - The report emphasizes that the current policies are extensions of previous measures and suggests that more substantial policy interventions may be necessary to stimulate the market [11] Summary by Sections Policy Review - The government has extended the personal income tax refund policy for residents purchasing new homes after selling their existing properties, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [10] - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been reduced to 30% to support the commercial real estate market [11] Market Performance - The real estate index decreased by 3.5% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.95 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 sectors [2][12] - New home sales in 30 cities totaled 119.1 million square meters this week, reflecting a 2.4% increase from the previous week but a 38.1% decrease year-on-year [23][25] - In the secondary housing market, transactions in 15 cities totaled 205.8 million square meters, showing a 3.8% increase week-on-week but a 7.6% decline year-on-year [31] Credit Market - A total of 14 corporate bonds were issued by real estate companies this week, with a total issuance of 12.11 billion yuan, marking a 54.8% increase from the previous week [3][40] - The net financing amount for the week was -2.7 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in net financing compared to the previous week [40] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on real estate stocks, particularly those of leading state-owned enterprises and quality private firms, as they are expected to benefit from the improving competitive landscape [3] - Recommended stocks include Green Town China, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments among others [3]

近日，许多企业仍在为过去一年的跌宕而复盘时，厦门建发集团有限公司（下称"厦门建发集团"）及其 核心上市平台建发股份（600153.SH），却以一系列令人瞩目的战略合作，为2026年定下了坚实基调。 从全球动力电池龙头宁德时代，到海南资源巨擘海垦集团，再到国家级政策性银行中国进出口银行，短 短月余，厦门建发集团高层签约的行程密集如梭。建发股份的核心引擎供应链运营业务，正挣脱传统模 式的桎梏，发动一场深刻的"升维"之战。 以"金融"为盾，保障业务扩张的底气与安全 厦门建发集团及建发股份近期与金融体系的互动，为公司自身供应链运营业务的稳定发展奠定了坚实基 础。 2025年12月19日，交通银行行长张宝江到访厦门建发集团。张宝江行长明确表示，将围绕建发核心领 域，以做好科技金融、绿色金融等"五篇大文章"进行精准赋能，助力厦门建发集团优化产业布局，为厦 门建发集团战略落地与业务升级注入金融动能。这一定位极具前瞻性，它意味着银行资金不再仅是传统 的流动资金贷款，而是将成为孵化新产业、支持绿色转型的"战略燃料"。 紧随其后，2026年1月13日，厦门建发集团又与中国进出口银行签署的《战略合作协议》。进出口银行 作为支持对外 ...