Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 17.91 billion yuan in the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.26 billion yuan, up 68.4% year-on-year. In the third quarter, revenue was 5.83 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year and 11.9% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit was 420 million yuan, up 64.8% year-on-year but down 19.2% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The company’s refrigerant sales volume decreased quarter-on-quarter due to the traditional off-season, but prices increased by approximately 13.9% due to production quota constraints. The company is expected to benefit from a high profitability cycle in refrigerants as the traditional consumption off-season ends and a new cooling year begins [2][3] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is 25.16 billion yuan, 29.08 billion yuan, and 31.62 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.8%, 15.6%, and 8.8% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.78 billion yuan, 2.45 billion yuan, and 3.17 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 88.5%, 37.8%, and 29.1% [3] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 13.2% in 2023 to 20.8% in 2026, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 5.9% to 14.5% over the same period [3] Market Position - The company is a leading player in the fluorochemical industry with a complete fluorochemical industrial chain. It is expected to benefit from a tight supply situation in the refrigerant market due to quota policies [2][3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the ongoing price increase of refrigerants, marking the beginning of a favorable pricing cycle [4] - The company reported a revenue of 17.906 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.258 billion yuan, up 68.40% year-on-year [4] - The company maintains a leading position in the refrigerant market, holding significant production quotas for both second-generation and third-generation refrigerants [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1.258 billion yuan, with quarterly profits of 310 million yuan, 524 million yuan, and 423 million yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively, showing year-on-year growth rates of 103.35%, 55.35%, and 64.76% [4] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 20.655 billion yuan in 2023 to 24.330 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 17.8% [5] Product Performance - The company’s main products saw varying sales performance, with refrigerants and fluorinated fine chemicals showing significant growth, while other products faced price declines due to oversupply [4] - The average prices for the main refrigerants have increased significantly, with the second-generation refrigerant R22 averaging 30,231 yuan per ton in Q3 2024, and the third-generation refrigerant R32 averaging 36,159 yuan per ton [4] Market Position - The company holds a 26.1% market share in the production quota of second-generation refrigerants and a 39.16% share in third-generation refrigerants, solidifying its leading position in the industry [4] - The report anticipates that the refrigerant market will continue to recover positively as the new cooling season begins [4] Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for the company are 2.062 billion yuan in 2024, 3.109 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.563 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.76, 1.15, and 1.69 yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][7] Core Views - The refrigerant industry remains highly prosperous, and supply constraints are expected to drive steady growth in the company's performance [1][6] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 17.906 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.83%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.258 billion yuan, up 68.40% year-on-year [1][2] Financial Summary - Revenue (million yuan): 2022A: 21,489; 2023A: 20,655; 2024E: 22,889; 2025E: 25,524; 2026E: 28,271 [1] - Net profit (million yuan): 2022A: 2,381; 2023A: 944; 2024E: 1,856; 2025E: 2,956; 2026E: 3,994 [1] - EPS (latest diluted): 2022A: 0.88; 2023A: 0.35; 2024E: 0.69; 2025E: 1.10; 2026E: 1.48 [1] - ROE (%): 2022A: 15.2; 2023A: 5.9; 2024E: 10.5; 2025E: 14.6; 2026E: 16.7 [1] Revenue Breakdown - The refrigerant segment has seen both volume and price increases, becoming the main driver of the company's performance [2] - Revenue from various segments for the first three quarters of 2024 includes: fluorine fine chemicals: 234 million yuan; fluorochemical raw materials: 899 million yuan; fluoropolymer materials: 1.305 billion yuan; basic chemical products: 2.045 billion yuan; refrigerants: 6.319 billion yuan; petrochemical materials: 3.034 billion yuan; food packaging materials: 731 million yuan [2] Price Trends - The average selling prices for key products in the first three quarters of 2024 were as follows: fluorine fine chemicals: 55,300 yuan/ton; fluorochemical raw materials: 3,400 yuan/ton; fluoropolymer materials: 39,300 yuan/ton; basic chemical products: 1,600 yuan/ton; refrigerants: 25,600 yuan/ton; petrochemical materials: 7,800 yuan/ton; food packaging materials: 11,700 yuan/ton [3] Cash Flow and Financial Ratios - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 800 million yuan, up 13.79% year-on-year [5] - The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period were 970 million yuan, down 25.85% year-on-year [5] - The company's financial ratios indicate a decrease in sales expenses by 18.22% year-on-year, while financial expenses increased by 629.50% year-on-year [3][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.91 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 1.26 billion yuan, up 68.4% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 1.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 71.9% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.83 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year and a decline of 11.9% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company for this quarter was 420 million yuan, up 64.8% year-on-year but down 19.2% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. - The report highlights that during the off-season in Q3, the sales volume of refrigerants decreased quarter-on-quarter, with some product prices declining. However, the revenue from the refrigerant business still increased by 60.0% year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 17.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.26 billion yuan, up 68.4% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 1.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 71.9% increase year-on-year [4][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 5.83 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year and 11.9% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 420 million yuan, up 64.8% year-on-year but down 19.2% quarter-on-quarter [4][5]. Market Outlook - Looking ahead to Q4, the prices of refrigerants in domestic and foreign trade are expected to converge, with overall prices trending upward. The company anticipates receiving a quota of 16,000 tons for hydrofluorocarbons, while also planning for a major annual system overhaul [5]. - The report indicates that the demand for air conditioning is expected to significantly increase due to the replacement of old units, with production data showing a year-on-year increase of 23.9% in October, 24.0% in November, and 9.7% in December [5]. - For the next few years, the company is projected to benefit from the improving market conditions in the refrigerant industry, with expected earnings of 1.98 billion yuan, 3.40 billion yuan, and 4.73 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][25]. Core Insights - The company has shown a significant increase in net profit year-on-year, with a 68.40% rise in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by the rising prices of refrigerant products [2][4]. - The company is a leading global player in the refrigerant market, benefiting from production quotas for third-generation refrigerants starting in 2024, which is expected to optimize the industry supply-demand structure [4][5]. - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 58.26 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.53% year-on-year, but the net profit for the same period increased by 64.76% [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 179.06 billion yuan, up 11.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.58 billion yuan, up 68.40% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 17.39%, an increase of 6.78 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 8.01%, up 3.51 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company’s operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 1.95 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.25% [2][3]. Product Segmentation - The company has a diverse product portfolio, including first to fourth generation fluorinated refrigerants, and has a significant production quota for HFCs, holding 39.16% of the national market share [4][5]. - Revenue from refrigerants in Q3 2024 was 23.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.04%, with an average price of 28,148 yuan per ton, up 44.88% year-on-year [2][9]. - The company is also expanding its production capacity for HFOs, with plans for a new production facility expected to add 9,000 tons per year [5][7]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 243.10 billion yuan, 272.27 billion yuan, and 289.66 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [25][28]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 17.47 billion yuan, 21.43 billion yuan, and 26.11 billion yuan, indicating strong growth potential [25][28]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to decrease from 32.43 in 2024 to 21.70 by 2026, suggesting an attractive valuation as the company grows [25][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of CNY 28.87, unchanged from the previous forecast [4] Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2024 showed year-on-year growth, driven by a significant increase in the prices of second and third-generation refrigerants [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the industry's favorable cycle as a leading player in third-generation refrigerants, especially with the implementation of the 2024 quota system [4] - Despite a lower-than-expected Q3 2024 performance due to declining prices of fluoropolymers and basic chemical products, the company's refrigerant business remains strong, with prices up 29.81% year-on-year [10] - The company's strategic expansion into high-value-added fluorochemical products and its leadership in third-generation refrigerants position it well for long-term growth [10] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of CNY 5.826 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.53%, and net profit of CNY 423 million, a year-on-year increase of 64.76% [10] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of CNY 17.906 billion, up 11.83% year-on-year, and net profit of CNY 1.258 billion, up 68.40% year-on-year [10] - The company's refrigerant production and sales in Q3 2024 were 141,100 tons and 85,000 tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 21.73% and 10.46% [10] Industry and Market Position - The company holds a significant share of the third-generation refrigerant quota, with 37.4% of the total quota for R32, R134A, R125A, and R143A in 2025 [10] - The company's leadership in the refrigerant market is further strengthened by its ability to maintain stable prices and volumes despite policy changes [10] - The company is expanding its presence in high-value-added fluorochemical products, including the production of fourth-generation refrigerants and cooling fluids for data centers [10] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts the company's revenue to grow from CNY 22.902 billion in 2024 to CNY 28.991 billion in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from CNY 2.033 billion in 2024 to CNY 4.238 billion in 2026 [11] - The company's EPS is projected to rise from CNY 0.75 in 2024 to CNY 1.57 in 2026 [11] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 11.6% in 2024 to 18.6% in 2026, reflecting strong profitability and growth potential [11] Valuation and Comparables - The company's current P/E ratio is 27.87x for 2024, which is lower than the average P/E ratio of comparable companies at 27.15x [13] - The company's P/B ratio is 3.24x for 2024, indicating a reasonable valuation relative to its book value [11] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 17.23x in 2024 to 9.32x in 2026, suggesting improving valuation metrics [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [4]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance is in line with expectations, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 12% to 17.906 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 68% to 1.258 billion yuan [4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the rise in both volume and price of refrigerants, despite a sequential decline in Q3 sales volume [4]. - The report anticipates continued price increases for refrigerants in Q4, supported by a favorable supply-demand balance and regulatory changes [4]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 20.99 yuan - Market capitalization: 56.668 billion yuan - Price-to-book ratio: 3.3 - Dividend yield: 0.52% [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.906 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.258 billion yuan [5]. - The gross margin improved to 16.95%, and the net margin reached 7.76% [4]. - The company forecasts revenues of 21.237 billion yuan for 2024, with a projected net profit of 1.950 billion yuan [5][6]. Segment Analysis - Refrigerant sales volume in Q3 was 85,000 tons, with an average price increase of 45% year-on-year [4]. - The petrochemical materials segment saw a significant year-on-year volume increase of 39% [4]. - The fluorinated polymer segment is expected to face profit pressure due to cost impacts, despite a recovery in volume and price [4]. Future Outlook - The report projects a positive trend for refrigerant prices due to regulatory changes and increased demand, with expected EPS of 0.72 yuan for 2024 [4][5]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a favorable industry landscape, with a strong market position in the refrigerant sector [4].

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司点评|巨化股份（600160） 短期业绩承压，制冷剂景气上行 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月25日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 10 月 24 日，巨化股份发布《2024 年第三季度报告》：受益于制冷剂产品价格上升、 公司完成收购淄博飞源等促使制冷剂销售量增加；含氟精细化学品产销量、营业收入同比大 幅增长等影响，2024 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 179.06 亿元，同比+11.83%；归母净利 润 12.58 亿元，同比+68.40%。其中，2024Q3 单季度公司实现归母净利润 4.23 亿元，同比 +64.76%、环比-19.19%；扣非归母净利润 3.9 亿元，同比+67.81%、环比-22.81%。 |分析师及联系人 张玮航 许隽逸 申起昊 SAC：S0590524090003 SAC：S0590524060003 SAC：S0590524070002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 10 非金融公司|公司点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月25日 巨化股份(600160) 短期业绩承压，制 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Add - B" [1][2] Core Views - The report highlights that the refrigerant market remains buoyant, leading to continuous improvement in the company's performance. The company has effectively leveraged its competitive position in the fluorinated refrigerant market and integrated operations to achieve stable production and sales growth across various product lines [1][3] - The report anticipates sustained growth in refrigerant prices due to supply constraints and regulatory changes, which are expected to significantly enhance the company's profitability [1][3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 17.906 billion yuan, an increase of 11.83% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.258 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 68.40% [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 16.95%, up by 4.08 percentage points year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, the company reported a revenue of 5.826 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.53% year-on-year and a decline of 11.86% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The report projects revenues of 24.812 billion yuan, 28.857 billion yuan, and 31.798 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.1%, 16.3%, and 10.2% [2][4] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a leading position in the refrigerant market, with a market share of 38% in the third-generation refrigerants. The concentration ratio (CR3) for various refrigerants is notably high, indicating a favorable market structure [3] - The average prices for key refrigerants have shown significant increases, with R32 rising by 120.29% year-to-date, indicating strong demand and pricing power in the market [3] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing price increases in refrigerants due to regulatory changes and supply constraints. The continuous expansion into high-value-added products is expected to further enhance profitability [2][3]

巨化股份（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600160） 公司点评 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...