证券研究报告·公司点评报告·商用车 福田汽车（600166） 2024 年三季报点评：Q3 利润承压，静待行业 回暖 2024 年 11 月 01 日 买入（维持） | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|---------|----------|---------|----------|----------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 46447 | 56097 | 49087 | 69836 | 74959 | | 同比（ % ） | (15.51) | 20.78 | (12.50) | 42.27 | 7.34 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 66.76 | 909.48 | 742.14 | 1,666.48 | 2,043.86 | | 同比（ % ） | 101.32 | 1,262.27 | (18.40) | 124.55 | 22.65 | | EPS- 最新 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that external demand shocks have negatively impacted the company's heavy truck sales, leading to a significant decline in performance in Q3 2024 [1] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 35.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 430 million yuan, down 45.2% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that the company's light truck products are experiencing rapid growth in new energy penetration, which is expected to enhance product value [1] - Heavy truck exports are identified as a key source of profit growth, although short-term demand is significantly affected by market shocks [1] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 11.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 2024 was 18 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 90.2% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 88.6% [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 12.7%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.8 percentage points [1] - The report projects total revenue for 2024-2026 to be 63.4 billion, 71.5 billion, and 79.0 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.0%, 12.9%, and 10.6% respectively [2][3] Key Financial Indicators - The company's net profit for 2024 is projected to be 1.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 26.5% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.14 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17.33 [2][5] - The report indicates a projected return on equity (ROE) of 7.5% for 2024 [2][5]

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for Q3 2024 was approximately ¥11.79 billion, a decrease of 16.34% compared to the same period last year[2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2024 was approximately ¥18.01 million, down 90.16% year-on-year[2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was approximately -¥83.63 million, a decrease of 304.42% compared to the same period last year[2]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was CNY 35.76 billion, down from CNY 42.94 billion in the same period of 2023, reflecting a decrease of 16.7%[18]. - Total operating revenue for Q3 2024 was 35,525,303,483.60 CNY, a decrease from 42,339,762,218.36 CNY in Q3 2023, representing a decline of approximately 16.5%[19]. - Net profit for Q3 2024 was 402,504,654.69 CNY, down from 754,507,501.91 CNY in Q3 2023, indicating a decrease of about 46.7%[19]. - Total comprehensive income for Q3 2024 was 330,631,972.03 CNY, down from 736,795,536.68 CNY in Q3 2023, a decline of about 55.2%[20]. - The total profit for Q3 2024 was 461,884,061.55 CNY, down from 850,367,872.14 CNY in Q3 2023, indicating a decrease of approximately 45.7%[19]. Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders at the end of the reporting period is 152,090, with the largest shareholder, Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd., holding 3,233,860,362 shares, representing 40.40% of the total shares[8]. - The company has a total of 1,805,288,934 unrestricted circulating shares held by its largest shareholder, Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd.[11]. - The second largest shareholder, Beijing State-owned Capital Operation Management Co., Ltd., holds 296,626,400 shares, representing 3.71% of the total shares[8]. - The top ten unrestricted shareholders include several state-owned enterprises, with the largest being Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd.[11]. - The top ten shareholders collectively hold a significant portion of the company's shares, indicating a concentrated ownership structure[11]. - The total number of shares held by the top ten unrestricted shareholders is 2,392,000,000 shares, which is a significant portion of the total share capital[11]. Assets and Liabilities - The total assets at the end of the reporting period were approximately ¥53.68 billion, an increase of 19.60% from the end of the previous year[3]. - As of September 30, 2024, current assets totaled CNY 28.34 billion, up from CNY 19.14 billion as of December 31, 2023, representing a 48.0% increase[15]. - Total liabilities increased to CNY 38.88 billion from CNY 30.48 billion, representing a 27.5% rise[17]. - The company's equity attributable to shareholders rose to CNY 14.63 billion from CNY 14.23 billion, a 2.8% increase[17]. - Short-term borrowings surged to CNY 1.21 billion from CNY 30 million, a substantial increase of 3,925.5%[16]. - The company reported a significant increase in long-term borrowings, which rose to CNY 4.21 billion from CNY 1.11 billion, a 279.5% increase[16]. Cash Flow - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first nine months of 2024 decreased by 134.84% compared to the same period last year[7]. - The company reported a net cash outflow from operating activities of -763,095,739.83 CNY for the first nine months of 2024, compared to a net inflow of 2,190,248,836.20 CNY in the same period of 2023[21]. - The net cash flow from financing activities was 4,337,890,275.36 CNY, compared to -598,787,054.32 CNY in the previous period, indicating a strong improvement[22]. - The cash received from borrowings was 5,664,895,889.80 CNY, a substantial increase compared to 559,500,000.00 CNY in the previous period[22]. - The net increase in cash and cash equivalents was 3,398,393,402.12 CNY, compared to 1,679,762,033.00 CNY in the previous year[22]. Operational Challenges - The company experienced a significant decline in net profit due to a 9.3% decrease in sales volume and changes in the overseas market structure[6]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement across the entire value chain to mitigate adverse impacts on profit[7]. - The company did not apply the new accounting standards for the first time in 2024[23]. Other Financial Metrics - The weighted average return on net assets was 0.12%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points compared to the same period last year[3]. - The basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 were ¥0.0023, down 90.11% year-on-year[3]. - Basic earnings per share for Q3 2024 were 0.055 CNY, compared to 0.100 CNY in Q3 2023, representing a decrease of 45%[20]. - Research and development expenses increased slightly to 1,510,118,185.49 CNY in Q3 2024 from 1,489,100,629.79 CNY in Q3 2023, reflecting a growth of approximately 1.9%[19]. - The company reported a significant increase in other income to 401,149,471.77 CNY in Q3 2024, compared to 65,284,587.36 CNY in Q3 2023, marking a growth of over 515%[19].

证券代码：600166 证券简称：福田汽车 编号：临 2024—081 北汽福田汽车股份有限公司 关于召开 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者 重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： http://roadshow.sseinfo.com/） 会议召开方式：上证路演中心网络互动 投资者可于 2024 年 11 月 18 日(星期一)至 11 月 22 日(星期五)16:00 前登 录上证路演中心网站首页点击"提问预征集"栏目或通过公司邮箱 600166@foton.com.cn 进行提问。公司将在说明会上对投资者普遍关注的问题 进行回答。 北汽福田汽车股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2024 年 10 月 31 日发布 公司 2024 年第三季度报告，为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年第 三季度经营成果、财务状况，公司计划于 2024 年 11 月 25 日下午 14:00-15:00 举行 2024 年第三季度业绩说明会，就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 （二）会议召开地点：上证路演 ...

证券代码：600166 证券简称：福田汽车 2024 年 10 月 16-17 日投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2024-024 北汽福田汽车股份有限公司 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | 投资者关系活 | √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | | 动类别 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | | □新闻发布会 √路演活动 | | | | √现场参观 □一对一沟通 | | | | □其他（电话会议） | | | 参与单位 | | 民生证券、宝盈基金、望正投资、中天国富证券、诺安基金、中科招商集团、创金合信基金、 | | 及人员 | 海通证券、华龙证券、华 ...

证券代码：600166 证券简称：福田汽车 编号：临 2024-080 北汽福田汽车股份有限公司 1、与资产相关的政府补助，应当冲减相关资产的账面价值或确认为递延收益， 与资产相关的政府补助确认为递延收益的，应当在相关资产使用寿命内按照合理、系 统的方法分期计入损益。按照名义金额计量的政府补助，直接计入当期损益。 2、与收益相关的政府补助，用于补偿企业以后期间的相关成本费用或损失的， 确认为递延收益，并在确认相关成本费用或损失的期间，计入当期损益或冲减相关成 本；用于补偿企业已发生的相关成本费用或损失的，直接计入当期损益或冲减相关成 本。 3、对于所有政府补助事项中，与企业日常活动相关的政府补助，应当按照经济 业务实质，计入其他收益或冲减相关成本费用；与企业日常活动无关的政府补助，应 当计入营业外收支。 关于获得政府补助的公告 公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其 内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 一、获取补助的基本情况 2024 年 10 月 23 日，公司收到北京市昌平区财政局拨付的与收益相关的政府补助 142,500,000.00 元。具体明细如 ...

Industry and Company Involved - **Industry**: Commercial vehicle sector, specifically focusing on medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs), light commercial vehicles (LCVs), and electric vehicles (EVs). - **Company**: Foton Motor Corporation Limited (Foton) Core Views and Arguments - **Subsidy Policies and Market Recovery**: The introduction of subsidy policies and the scrappage scheme for commercial vehicles are expected to stimulate demand in both passenger and commercial vehicle markets, benefiting Foton as a leader in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle segment. - **Foton's Performance**: Foton's sales of medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCVs) have been negatively impacted by factors such as technological dependencies and low freight rates. However, the company's sales of light commercial vehicles (LCVs) have shown a decline of approximately 5%. - **LCV Market**: The LCV market is expected to grow at a rate of 4% this year, with the key factors being the adjustment of product structure and the improvement of the proportion of new energy products. - **New Energy LCVs**: The penetration rate of new energy LCVs has reached 13% this year, with a significant increase in the use of new energy LCVs in urban logistics distribution. - **Market Share**: Foton holds a 27% market share in the LCV segment, with a leading advantage over competitors such as Jianghuai, Chang'an, and Dongfeng. - **Export Business**: Foton's export business, particularly in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle segment, is expected to be a significant source of growth, with a focus on regions such as South America and the Middle East. - **Technological Advancements**: Foton has made significant advancements in technologies such as autonomous driving, automated manual transmission (AMT), and semi-solid-state batteries for LCVs. Other Important Points - **Sales and Revenue**: Foton's sales of LCVs reached 79,000 units in August, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 50%. The company's revenue from LCVs accounted for approximately 50% of its total revenue. - **Profitability**: Foton's gross margin has increased to 12.5%, with a significant improvement in sales and administrative expenses. - **Future Outlook**: Foton's overall performance is expected to improve in the coming years, with a projected revenue of 10 to 11 billion yuan and a net profit margin of 15%. - **Valuation**: Foton's valuation is relatively low compared to its peers, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17 times.

证券代码：600166 证券简称：福田汽车 编号：临 2024—079 北汽福田汽车股份有限公司 关于员工持股计划处置完毕暨终止的公告 公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并 对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 北汽福田汽车股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）第一期、第二期、第三期员工持 股计划所持有的公司股票已全部处置完毕。根据《关于上市公司实施员工持股计划试 点的指导意见》《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 1 号——规范运作》等规定， 现将相关情况公告如下： 一、员工持股计划的基本情况 公司分别于 2020 年 8 月 12 日、2020 年 9 月 25 日召开董事会及 2020 年第六次临 时股东大会，审议通过了《关于<北汽福田汽车股份有限公司员工持股计划（草案）> 及其摘要的议案》等相关议案。具体内容详见公司披露于上海证券交易所网站 （www.sse.com.cn）及指定信息披露媒体的相关公告（公告编号：临 2020-093、2020- 115）。 2020 年 11 月 23 日，公司回购专用证券账户的 6,187,500 股公司标的股票已通 ...

证券代码：600166 证券简称：福田汽车 编号：临 2024-078 北汽福田汽车股份有限公司 关于回购股份注销完成暨股份变动的公告 公司分别于2024年8月14日、2024年8月30日经董事会及2024年第三次临时股东大会， 审议通过了关于变更第三期回购股份用途用于注销事项，将第三期回购股份用途由"全 部用于员工持股计划（三年内未实施部分注销）"变更为"全部用于注销并相应减少注册 资本"，即注销回购专用证券账户中回购的全部股份86,363,108股。本次注销完成后，公 司总股本将由8,003,763,475股变更为7,917,400,367股，注册资本将由8,003,763,475元 变更为7,917,400,367元。具体内容详见公司在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn） 及《中国证券报》《上海证券报》《证券日报》披露的相关公告（公告编号：临2024-055、 2024-057、临2024-066号）。 二、回购股份注销的办理情况 公司已依据相关法律规定就注销回购股份事项履行通知债权人程序，具体内容详见 公司在上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）及《中国证券报》《上海证券报》 ...

证券代码：600166 证券简称：福田汽车 编号：临 2024—077 北汽福田汽车股份有限公司 关于年度担保计划范围内担保进展的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 2024 年 9 月，公司为福田国贸提供的担保金额为 5 亿元，截至 9 月底公司已 实际为福田国贸提供的担保余额 20.72 亿元； 2024 年 9 月，公司为中车信融提供的担保金额为 2.9454 亿元，截至 9 月底 公司已实际为安鹏中融及其下属子公司提供的担保余额 28.28 亿元； 2024 年 9 月，公司为产业链上下游企业及终端客户提供的担保金额 0.48 亿 元，截至 9 月底已实际为其提供的担保余额 2.03 亿元； 2024 年 9 月，公司为经销商提供的担保金额 15 亿元（回购责任），截至 9 月 底已实际为其提供的担保余额 40.18 亿元。 上述担保均在年度股东大会授权范围内。 一、担保情况概述 公司董事会于 2024 年 1 月 10 日、股东大会于 2024 年 1 月 26 日审议通过了《关 根据上海证券交易所 ...