Q&A 能否介绍一下兖矿能源在 2025 年第一季度的经营情况，以及 2025 年第二季 度的初步经营情况？ 兖矿能源在 2025 年第一季度取得了显著成绩。煤炭产量达到 3,680 万吨，同 比增加 271 万吨，完成了年初的产量规划。此外，化工产品产量为 214 万吨， 同比增加 25 万吨。由于原材料价格较低且市场状况良好，化工板块增盈 4.4 亿元。一季度营业收入为 303 亿元，同比减少 23.5%，主要受煤炭价格影响。 归母净利润为 27.1 亿元，同比减少 27.9%，同样受到煤炭市场价格波动影响。 • 各区域成本差异显著，新疆能化成本最低（82 元/吨），但运输难度影响 创效；陕蒙区域成本相对较低（100-200 元/吨）；山东公司本部和鲁西 矿业成本较高（约 400 元/吨）；菏泽能化成本最高（861 元/吨）；澳洲 资产成本接近 500 元/吨。 • 公司预计 2025 年煤炭产量将显著增长，目标为 1.55~1.61 亿吨，加上 西北矿业的 3,000 万吨，总产量预计达 1.8~1.9 亿吨。增产主要来自陕 蒙、新疆和澳洲现有矿井，以及万福煤矿和五彩湾 3 号、4 号露天矿的投 产。 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨兖矿能源（600188.SH） [Table_Title] Q1 增量释放叠加成本优化对冲部分价减影响， 关注 25 全年量增弹性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年一季报：2025Q1 公司实现归母净利润 27.1 亿元，同比-10.5 亿元（-27.9%）， 环比-3.1 亿元（-10.3%）。2025 年量增幅度可观，中长期聚焦成长+股息。随着 180 万吨万福 煤矿投产、陕蒙矿井产能继续爬坡，下半年新疆五彩湾一期 1000 万吨投产，2025 年公司内生 量增幅度或超 10%，叠加拟资产注入西北矿业，预计又将带来 3000 万吨+量增。并且西北矿 业承诺 3 年累计实现业绩 71 亿，年化业绩约 24 亿，未达承诺以现金方式向公司补偿利润差 额，充分反映发展信心。此外公司保底分红承诺 60%，当前兼具成长+股息双重优势。 分析师及联系人 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S04905170700 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the strong performance of Shandong's capital market, with 307 out of 309 listed companies reporting their 2024 results, showcasing resilience in a complex economic environment [1] - Total operating revenue for Shandong listed companies exceeded 2.95 trillion yuan, maintaining a robust profit level, with 244 companies achieving positive profits, representing nearly 80% [1][3] - The number of companies with over 1 billion yuan in net profit increased, with 140 companies achieving this milestone, indicating effective transformation of old and new driving forces [1][3] Group 2 - The "thousand billion revenue" group expanded to 7 companies, contributing a total of 1.39 trillion yuan in revenue, accounting for 47.2% of the total revenue of Shandong listed companies [2] - Notable companies in this group include Haier Smart Home, Weichai Power, and Wanhu Chemical, with two technology firms, Inspur Information and GoerTek, also joining the ranks [2] - The industry distribution of these companies reflects the effectiveness of Shandong's "Ten Strong Industries" strategy, with representation from high-end manufacturing, energy and chemicals, and information technology [2] Group 3 - The overall profit of Shandong listed companies reached 156.75 billion yuan in 2024, with four companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in net profit, including Haier Smart Home and Yanzhou Coal Mining [3] - Traditional companies like Qingdao Beer and Hualu Hengsheng have revitalized their operations through smart upgrades, with Qingdao Beer achieving over 20% of its revenue from high-end products [3] - Emerging companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Jereh Holdings have demonstrated strong profitability in niche sectors like optical modules and oil and gas equipment [3] Group 4 - Four cities in Shandong, including Jinan, Zaozhuang, Jining, and Weifang, have added new companies to the A-share market, showcasing a trend of "multi-point breakthroughs and distinct characteristics" [4] - New entrants include Zhongchuang Co., focusing on middleware for various industries, and Tengda Technology, specializing in stainless steel fasteners [4] - The expansion of A-share listings across all 16 cities in Shandong indicates a comprehensive coverage and a shift towards innovation-driven core competitiveness [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is experiencing a paradigm shift from performance-driven growth to valuation-driven growth, influenced by supply constraints and stable coal prices [10][16]. - The long-term contracts in the coal sector are enhancing the stability of earnings, providing a buffer against market volatility [24][28]. - The report highlights that despite recent price declines, the coal sector's defensive attributes may offer unique advantages in uncertain market conditions [60][66]. Summary by Sections 1. What to Invest in the Coal Industry? - The focus is on long-term contracts and stable coal prices as key investment areas [8]. 2. Why Shift from Performance to Valuation? - Supply elasticity is decreasing, leading to enhanced stability in return on equity (ROE) [18][21]. - The increase in capital expenditures since 2021 has been significant, with new coal mine approvals becoming more complex and costly [19][20]. - The long-term contract mechanism is crucial for stabilizing earnings expectations in the coal sector [24][27]. 3. Why Has the Coal Sector Seen Significant Corrections Since H2 2024? - The fundamental issue stems from strong supply and weak demand, leading to a surplus in coal supply [39][41]. - The decline in electricity prices has pressured profit margins across the coal-electricity supply chain [39][41]. 4. Can the Sector Still Rise Despite Weak Demand? - Concerns about demand are driven by a slowdown in electricity consumption growth and the increasing substitution of coal by renewable energy sources [48][53]. - The report suggests that even with demand concerns, coal's defensive characteristics may still provide stability in performance [60][66]. 5. Long-term Outlook for Thermal Coal - The report anticipates a marginal improvement in coal supply-demand dynamics by late May 2025, with potential support for coal prices [66][67].

Group 1: 2024 Performance Overview - The coal sector's overall net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to decline by 20% year-on-year, with an average ROE of approximately 10% [1] - The total profit of large coal enterprises is projected to be 604.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.2% [1] - Key coal companies are expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 157.3 billion yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 155.5 billion yuan, down 18.6% and 19.7% year-on-year, respectively [1] Group 2: 2024 Operational Overview - The total coal production of 28 key coal companies is estimated at 1.34 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [2] - The weighted average net profit per ton of coal is approximately 131 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 25% [2] - The weighted average coal price and cost are projected to decrease by 7% and remain stable, respectively [2] Group 3: Q1 2025 Performance Overview - The sector's profit is expected to decline by 27% year-on-year, with an average net profit margin of around 11% [3] - The total net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1 2025 is projected to be 31 billion yuan, down 27.3% year-on-year [3] - The average gross profit margin and net profit margin for Q1 2025 are expected to drop to 25% and 11%, respectively [3] Group 4: Q1 2025 Operational Overview - The coal production of 24 companies is expected to reach 304 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [4] - The weighted average net profit per ton of coal is projected to decrease to 97 yuan, with coal prices and costs declining by 18% and 15%, respectively [4] - Some companies, such as Shaanxi Energy and Yancoal, are expected to maintain a net profit per ton exceeding 100 yuan [4] Group 5: Industry Outlook - Seasonal demand for thermal coal is expected to improve marginally after May, with expectations of increased industrial demand and reduced coal imports [5] - Coal prices are anticipated to gradually recover after inventory declines, despite a potential downward trend in the price center for 2025 [5] Group 6: Key Companies - Companies with stable profits and high dividends include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua [6] - Companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential include China Coal Energy and Yancoal [6] - Companies benefiting from positive demand expectations and low PB ratios include Huabei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance of the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index, which has seen a decline of 7.31% in the past month, 8.77% in the past three months, and 10.93% year-to-date [1] - The top ten holdings of the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index include China National Offshore Oil (41.44%), PetroChina (17.49%), China Shenhua Energy (13.95%), Sinopec (13.62%), and others, indicating a concentration in a few major companies [1] - The index is designed to reflect the overall performance of different industries in the Hong Kong market, with a base date of December 31, 2004, set at 1000.0 points [1] Group 2 - The market segments represented in the China Securities Hong Kong 300 Energy Index are entirely from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with fuel refining accounting for 42.01%, integrated oil and gas companies for 31.12%, and coal for 24.17% [2] - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with changes implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December, ensuring that the weight factors are updated accordingly [2] - Adjustments to the index samples occur in response to special events affecting the companies, such as mergers or delistings, ensuring the index remains reflective of the current market landscape [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a significant decline in coal prices, which has negatively impacted its performance, but the worst may be over. The drop in coal prices has led to a recovery in chemical profit margins, and the company continues to expand its resources towards a target capacity of 300 million tons [1][3]. Financial Performance - The company reported total revenue of 30.3 billion yuan for Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 23.53%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.7 billion yuan, down 27.89% year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are maintained at 1.09, 1.23, and 1.35 yuan respectively [2][3]. Coal Production and Sales - In Q1 2025, the company produced 36.8 million tons of commercial coal, an increase of 6.26%, while sales volume was 31.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.07%. The decline in sales was primarily due to weak market demand and a drop in trade coal volume. The average price of self-produced coal was 543 yuan per ton, down 132 yuan per ton year-on-year, with a production cost of 317 yuan per ton, down 52 yuan per ton year-on-year [3]. Chemical Business Performance - The company’s coal chemical products, including methanol, acetic acid, and urea, had a total production of 2.414 million tons in Q1 2025, an increase of 11.55%, and sales of 2.018 million tons, up 7.28%. The coal chemical segment generated revenue of 6.3 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.66%, while sales costs decreased by 7.08%, leading to a gross profit of 1.5 billion yuan, up 39.08% year-on-year [4]. Resource Expansion Plans - The company is advancing its resource expansion plans, aiming for a target capacity of 300 million tons. Key projects include the first phase of the Wucaiwan open-pit mine in Xinjiang, which is progressing rapidly with a planned production of 10 million tons by 2025. Additionally, the company plans to acquire a 51% stake in Northwest Mining, which has a total approved capacity of 61.05 million tons per year [4].

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2025年4月30日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 兗礦能源集團股份有限公司(在中華人民共和國註冊成立的公司) 呈交日期: 2025年5月6日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 600188 | 說明 | | A股（上海證券交易所） | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 5,964,360,402 | RMB | | 1 | RMB | | 5,964,360,402 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | -2,379,858 | | | | RMB | | -2,379,858 | | 本月底結存 | | | 5,961,980, ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [11][12] - The trend of coal prices establishing a bottom and moving to a new platform is expected to continue, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is considered undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of May 4, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 652 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][30] - The price for Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.9%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 89.74%, up 1.36 percentage points [4][47] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 18.40 thousand tons/day (-6.21%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 9.30 thousand tons/day (+5.27%) [4][48] Inventory and Transportation - As of April 29, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 2.59% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a 0.77% increase [48] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces is showing an upward trend, indicating a potential increase in demand as the summer peak approaches [4][48] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and China Power Investment [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle for the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [11] - The trend of coal prices establishing a bottom and moving to a new platform is expected to continue, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is considered undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of May 4, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 652 CNY/ton, down 3 CNY/ton week-on-week [3][30] - The price for Shanxi-produced coking coal at Jingtang port remains stable at 1400 CNY/ton [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.9%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 89.74%, up 1.36 percentage points [4][47] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 18.40 thousand tons/day (-6.21%), while consumption in coastal provinces increased by 9.30 thousand tons/day (+5.27%) [4][48] Inventory and Transportation - As of April 29, coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 2.59% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a 0.77% increase [48] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces is showing an upward trend, indicating a potential increase in demand as the summer peak approaches [4][48] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and China Power Investment [12]