Core Insights - The overall passenger turnover volume of multiple listed airlines has shown significant growth in October, indicating a potential improvement in industry conditions for the fourth quarter [1][4]. Group 1: China National Airlines - In October 2025, China National Airlines reported a year-on-year increase in combined passenger turnover volume (measured in revenue passenger kilometers) of 8.7% [1]. - Passenger capacity input (measured in available seat kilometers) increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with domestic capacity up by 3.2% and international capacity up by 7.5% [1]. - The average passenger load factor reached 85.3%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Group 2: China Eastern Airlines - China Eastern Airlines announced a year-on-year increase in passenger capacity input of 6.84% and a passenger turnover volume increase of 10.58% for October 2025 [2]. - The passenger load factor was reported at 87.52%, up by 2.97 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Cargo turnover volume increased by 14.59% year-on-year [2]. Group 3: China Southern Airlines and Hainan Airlines - China Southern Airlines reported a 7.53% increase in passenger capacity input, with passenger turnover volume rising by 8.83% in October 2025 [3]. - The passenger load factor was 87.89%, an increase of 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Hainan Airlines reported a 6.81% increase in passenger capacity input and a 7.33% increase in revenue passenger kilometers [3]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - According to a recent report by Cinda Securities, high passenger load factors and recovering ticket prices are expected to contribute to a rebound in travel demand in the fourth quarter [4]. - The airline industry has seen sustained high load factors and a recovery in ticket prices, which is anticipated to enhance airline revenue per seat [4]. - The implementation of "anti-involution" measures is expected to reduce malicious low pricing, further supporting ticket price recovery and airline profitability [4].

Group 1 - Multiple listed airlines reported significant growth in passenger turnover and high load factors for October, indicating a potential improvement in industry conditions for Q4 [1][2][3] - Air China announced a year-on-year increase of 8.7% in passenger turnover and a 4.3% rise in capacity input, with an average load factor of 85.3%, up 3.4 percentage points [1] - China Eastern Airlines reported a 10.58% increase in passenger turnover and a 6.84% rise in capacity input, achieving a load factor of 87.52%, up 2.97 percentage points [2] Group 2 - China Southern Airlines disclosed a year-on-year increase of 8.83% in passenger turnover and a 7.53% rise in capacity input, with a load factor of 87.89%, up 1.05 percentage points [2] - Hainan Airlines reported a 7.33% increase in passenger turnover and a 6.81% rise in capacity input, with cargo revenue ton-kilometers increasing by 25.37% [3] - Recent reports indicate high load factors and positive ticket pricing trends, suggesting a recovery in travel demand and potential profitability for airlines in Q4 [3]

此外，春秋航空（601021.SH）、海航控股（600221.SH）、吉祥航空（603885.SH）、 厦门航空、四川航空、深圳航空和山东航空7家航司均发布了涉日本航线免费退改政策。据 《中国经营报》记者统计，截至发稿，已有10家航司发布赴日航班退改政策。 日本一直是中国游客出境最重要的目的地之一，近日中国外交部发布提醒中国公民近期避免 前往日本后，多家航司发布涉日本机票免费退改政策。 中国外交部11月14日在其官方网站发布提醒称，今年以来，日本社会治安不靖，针对中国 公民违法犯罪案件多发，发生多起在日中国公民遇袭事件，部分案件迄未侦破，中国公民在 日本安全环境持续恶化。近日，日本领导人公然发表涉台露骨挑衅言论，严重恶化中日人员 交流氛围，给在日中国公民人身和生命安全带来重大风险。 上述提醒发出后，中国各大航空公司陆续推出退改政策。 中国国际航空公司（以下简称"中国国航"，601111.SH）11月15日发布方案显示，对于 11月15日12时（含）前购买或换开产生新票号的国航999开头的客票且客票未使用行程涉 及旅行日期为2025年11月15日（含）至2025年12月31日（含）之间东京、大阪、名古 图说：1 ...

Core Insights - The overall passenger turnover volume of listed airlines has shown significant growth, indicating a potential improvement in industry conditions for the fourth quarter [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Airline Performance Data - Air China reported a 4.3% increase in passenger capacity and an 8.7% increase in passenger turnover for October 2025, with an average load factor of 85.3%, up 3.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - China Eastern Airlines announced a 6.84% increase in passenger capacity and a 10.58% increase in passenger turnover for October 2025, achieving a load factor of 87.52%, up 2.97 percentage points year-on-year [2] - China Southern Airlines reported a 7.53% increase in passenger capacity and an 8.83% increase in passenger turnover for October 2025, with a load factor of 87.89%, up 1.05 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Hainan Airlines indicated a 6.81% increase in passenger capacity and a 7.33% increase in passenger turnover for October 2025, with cargo revenue ton-kilometers increasing by 25.37% [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Outlook - The airline industry is experiencing high load factors and a recovery in ticket prices, with expectations for improved travel demand in the fourth quarter [4] - The implementation of measures to reduce aggressive pricing strategies is anticipated to support ticket price recovery, further enhancing airline revenue per seat [4] - A decline in oil prices is expected to lower operational costs for airlines, potentially leading to increased profitability [4]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is experiencing a continuous digestion of existing supply, with aircraft utilization rates exceeding 2019 levels during peak season, indicating a potential slowdown in supply growth in the future. The significant increase in international routes and limited domestic capacity growth suggest an optimization of the domestic competitive landscape, with high passenger load factors likely to improve ticket prices. Favorable oil prices and exchange rates are expected to lead to a "not-so-slow" trend in Q4, with a significant reduction in losses anticipated for the aviation industry by Q4 2025 and a release of profit elasticity in 2026 [1]. Group 1: Flight and Passenger Volume - Flight and passenger volume growth: In Q3 2025, overall, domestic, international, and regional flight volumes increased by 3%/2%/12%/7% year-on-year, while overall, domestic, international, and regional passenger volumes grew by 3.90%/2.84%/15.31%/-2.37% year-on-year [1]. - Airlines' capacity deployment: Except for Juneyao Airlines, overall capacity investment increased, focusing on international routes. In Q3 2025, ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for major airlines showed year-on-year growth of 1.9%/5.7%/6.0%/4.4%/14.1%/-1.4% [2]. - Passenger turnover growth outpaced available seat kilometers growth, with load factors remaining high. In Q3 2025, passenger turnover for major airlines increased by 3.6%/6.2%/8.9%/4.2%/14.0%/-0.4% year-on-year, with industry load factors for July to September averaging 84.5%/87.5%/86.3%, up 0.5/0.6/2.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Revenue and Cost Analysis - Revenue growth driven by capacity increase and passenger volume: In Q3 2025, total operating revenue for major airlines grew by 0.9%/3.0%/3.1%/1.8%/6.0%/-1.9% year-on-year [3]. - Decrease in oil prices alleviated fuel costs, while capacity investment diluted fixed costs, although variable costs increased. In Q3 2025, operating costs for major airlines increased by 0.07%/1.63%/1.51%/-1.43%/8.74%/-0.46% year-on-year [3]. - Revenue per available seat kilometer decreased, but the decline in costs was generally greater than the decline in revenue. In Q3 2025, revenue per available seat kilometer for major airlines decreased by 1.03%/2.55%/2.72%/2.41%/7.09%/0.47%/5.28%, while costs decreased by 1.84%/3.86%/4.26%/5.54%/4.70%/8.21% [3]. Group 3: Profitability and Market Outlook - Favorable oil prices and exchange rates positively impacted net profits. In Q3 2025, the average price of aviation kerosene was 5593 RMB/ton, down 11.05% year-on-year, and the USD/CNY exchange rate decreased by 0.74%, affecting net profits of major airlines [4]. - Slightly better-than-expected net profits for China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines. In Q3 2025, net profits for major airlines were 36.76/38.40/35.34/27.88/11.67/5.84/3.69 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of -11.31%/+20.26%/34.37%/-0.75%/-6.17%/-25.29%/+31.60% [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment themes include performance elasticity from ticket price increases, recommending major airlines with larger fleets and strong cyclical attributes, as well as Hainan Airlines benefiting from policy advantages and Juneyao Airlines with optimal route networks among private carriers [5]. - Emphasis on the certainty of operational performance, recommending airlines with stable subsidies like China Express Airlines and those with clear cost advantages and neutral exchange rate exposure like Spring Airlines [5].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Airlines plans to launch a direct flight route from Qionghai to Kuala Lumpur starting December 7, 2025, enhancing economic and cultural exchanges between China and Malaysia [1][4]. Group 1: Flight Details - The new route will operate two round-trip flights weekly, scheduled for Wednesdays and Sundays [4]. - Departure from Qionghai Bo'ao International Airport is set for 16:40 Beijing time, arriving in Kuala Lumpur at 20:10 local time, with a flight duration of approximately 3 hours and 30 minutes [4]. - The return flight will leave Kuala Lumpur at 12:15 local time, arriving back in Qionghai at 15:25 Beijing time, with a flight duration of about 3 hours and 10 minutes [4]. Group 2: Services and Offerings - Hainan Airlines will provide various travel options, including seat selection, prepaid baggage, in-flight upgrades, and business packages to cater to diverse passenger needs [4]. - The Kuala Lumpur International Airport is a major international hub, known for its efficient operations and quality services, further solidifying its status as a key travel destination [4]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - Qionghai has been the permanent site of the Boao Forum for Asia since 2001, attracting global leaders and experts, and serves as an important window for Hainan's free trade port development [5]. - Hainan Airlines has established a comprehensive international and regional flight network, connecting to major cities across multiple continents [5]. - Starting February 9, 2024, China will expand visa-free entry for citizens from 59 countries to Hainan, facilitating travel for tourism, business, and other purposes [5].

Market Reaction - The Nikkei 225 index opened with a significant drop, falling over 1% and breaching the 50,000 points mark before narrowing its losses by around 9:50 AM [1] - Several consumer stocks in Japan experienced substantial declines, with FOOD&LIFE COMPANIES down over 14%, Japanese electronics down over 11%, and Shiseido down over 9% [3] Economic Data - Japan's Cabinet Office reported a 1.8% year-on-year decline in real GDP for the third quarter, marking the first negative growth in six quarters [3] - The actual GDP for the third quarter decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter [3] Diplomatic Tensions - High-ranking Japanese officials made provocative statements regarding Taiwan, suggesting potential military involvement, which has drawn significant criticism from China and the international community [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued travel warnings for its citizens in Japan, citing a rise in crimes against Chinese nationals and a deteriorating security environment [5] Airline Industry Impact - Following the travel warnings, major Chinese airlines announced flexible ticket policies for flights to Japan, allowing free changes and refunds for tickets purchased before November 15 [7][8] - Chinese airlines account for approximately 80% of the flight volume on the China-Japan route, with a significant reduction in weekly flights observed [9] Tourism Statistics - In September 2025, foreign visitors to Japan reached 3.267 million, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, with Chinese tourists being the largest group [9] - In the first three quarters of this year, the number of Chinese tourists visiting Japan increased by 42.7%, making China the largest source of inbound tourism for Japan [9] Trade Relations - China remains Japan's largest trading partner, with a total trade volume of $308.3 billion expected in 2024, including $156.25 billion in imports from China [10] - The deterioration of Japan-China relations is anticipated to have negative repercussions for the Japanese populace, as highlighted by Japanese officials [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply-demand pattern continues to improve, signaling the start of an upward cycle for the aviation industry. In Q3 2025, the industry's existing supply is being continuously digested, with peak season aircraft utilization exceeding that of 2019, indicating a potential slowdown in future supply growth. Additionally, significant investment in international routes and limited growth in domestic capacity suggest an optimization of the domestic competitive landscape, with high passenger load factors likely leading to improved ticket prices. Currently, favorable oil prices and exchange rates are expected to create a "not-so-slow" trend in Q4, with the industry likely to significantly reduce losses and release profit elasticity in 2026 [3][45]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In Q3 2025, overall flight volume increased by 3% year-on-year, with domestic and international flight volumes growing by 2% and 12%, respectively. Passenger volume also rose by 3.90% overall, with domestic and international passenger volumes increasing by 2.84% and 15.31% [3][12][19]. - The aircraft utilization rate has improved year-on-year, with the industry achieving an average utilization of 10 hours in July and August, exceeding the same period in 2019 by 3% and 4% [3][26]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the total operating revenue for major airlines increased year-on-year, with China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and others showing growth rates of 3.0%, 3.1%, and 1.8%, respectively. However, the operating costs for most airlines also increased, with China Southern and China Eastern slightly exceeding expectations [3][35][41]. - The average price of aviation kerosene in Q3 2025 was 5593 RMB/ton, a decrease of 11.05% year-on-year, contributing to lower operational costs for airlines [3][41]. Investment Recommendations - The investment focus is on two main lines: 1. The performance elasticity brought by rising ticket prices, recommending major airlines with larger fleets and strong cyclical attributes, as well as Hainan Airlines benefiting from specific policies, and the privately-owned airline with the best route network, Juneyao Airlines [3][45]. 2. The certainty of operational performance, recommending Huaxia Airlines with stable subsidies and Spring Airlines, which has clear cost advantages and neutral exchange rate exposure [3][45].

本报讯 （记者李雯珊）11月15日，海南航空控股股份有限公司披露2025年10月主要运营数据。公告显示，10月份海航控股实现收入客公里（RPK）11653.62百万公里，其中，国际市场收入 10月26日起，海南航空将开始执行冬春航季航班计划。新航季内，海南航空计划新增国内航线百余条，加密热门航线班次及宽体机投放，进一步优化航线网络布局，提升旅客出行便利性。国内 国际及地区航线方面，冬春航季，海南航空将继续运营往返140条国际及地区航线，从北京、海口、重庆等12个城市出发，可便捷抵达全球31个国家及地区。此外，公司还计划新增一条重庆直飞 随着海南自贸港全岛封关运作正式进入倒计时，海航控股将迎来多重政策红利，为公司高质量发展注入新动能。12月18日封关运作后，企业所得税与个人所得税均适用15%税率，将有效降低企业 面对历史性机遇，海航控股正在积极构建"国内快线+国际中转"的复合型航线网络，打造产业发展新布局。随着第五航权和第七航权的逐步放开，海航控股有望充分受益于封关后商务、旅游和飞 ...

Core Insights - Hainan Airlines Holdings Co., Ltd. reported significant operational data for October 2025, showing a 27.01% year-on-year increase in international revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) [1] - The company is set to enhance its domestic and international flight offerings in the upcoming winter-spring season, adding over 100 domestic routes and continuing operations on 140 international routes [2] - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port is expected to provide multiple policy benefits, including reduced tax rates and zero tariffs on aircraft procurement, which will enhance the company's profitability and operational efficiency [3] Group 1: Operational Performance - In October, the company achieved RPK of 11,653.62 million kilometers, with international RPK reaching 2,434.93 million kilometers [1] - Passenger transport volume increased by 3.59% year-on-year, totaling 6,100.34 thousand passengers, with international passenger transport growing by 19.03% to 364.19 thousand passengers [1] - Cargo and mail revenue ton-kilometers rose by 25.37%, with cargo and mail volume increasing by 20.07% [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - Starting October 26, Hainan Airlines will implement a new winter-spring flight schedule, adding over 100 domestic routes and optimizing its network [2] - The company plans to operate nearly 500 domestic routes, connecting around 80 cities, and will introduce a new direct flight from Chongqing to Brussels [2] - The upcoming Hainan Free Trade Port will lower corporate and personal income tax rates to 15%, significantly reducing tax burdens and attracting high-end talent [3] Group 3: Future Opportunities - The "zero tariff" policy will substantially decrease aircraft procurement and maintenance costs, improving the profitability of the company's maintenance sector [3] - The establishment of a bonded "aircraft materials supermarket" will shorten aircraft maintenance cycles and streamline customs processes [3] - With the gradual relaxation of fifth and seventh freedom rights, the company is positioned to benefit from increased demand for business, tourism, and aircraft maintenance services post-closure [3]