证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250728-20250803） 一、聚焦：继续强调"反内卷"下电商快递投资机会 1、 以史为鉴："反内卷"在快递行业是否有效且能否持续推进？ 1）从 21 年经验看，义乌地区率先涨价并逐步扩散。根据邮管局数据计算，21 年 9 月义乌地区单票价格 2.94 元，环比 8 月 2.64 元上涨 0.3 元，价格同比由 8 月的-16%迅速收窄至-1%；此后，在 21 年四季度，价格仍表现坚挺，10 月 义乌地区单票收入同比回正至+2%，11-12 月同比+8%，2022 年 1-8 月依然保 持同比正增。而从全国范围看，申通、韵达、圆通单票收入环比持续提升，可 推测涨价落地并逐步扩散。21 年 9 月三家环比分别上涨 0.16、0.09 和 0.15 元， 到 11 月三家相较于 8 月分别上涨 0.51、0.33、0.46 元（当中包含旺季季节性 涨幅）。同比看，圆通 21 年 8 月实现单票同比转正，21 年 11 月三家均实现价 格同比正增。2）2021 年-22 年的经验看，行业具备价格-盈利提升的传导潜力。 最为显著的，如圆通从 21Q3 的单票扣非净利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [11] Core Insights - The express delivery industry, although not listed among the top ten "anti-involution" sectors, has shown strong stock performance and exceeded expectations in July, reflecting a "latecomer advantage" [2][6] - The industry's characteristics of "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing growth," and "price increase acceptance" drive its performance [2][6] Summary by Sections Stabilizing Employment - The express delivery sector is a significant reservoir for employment, with over 4 million direct workers in 2024, highlighting its role in the flexible employment market [19][21] - The low social security coverage for delivery workers emphasizes the importance of the sector in stabilizing employment [22] Stabilizing Growth - The profitability of express delivery headquarters is under pressure, with average monthly prices dropping to around 2 yuan, leading to intensified price competition [25][26] - The report notes that the pressure on franchise operators is at historical highs, with some facing cash flow issues, necessitating a stable operational environment [26] Price Increase Acceptance - The average cost rate for online shopping express delivery is approximately 5.2%, indicating a relatively high acceptance of price increases among e-commerce customers [34][39] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" measures could positively impact the quality of service and operational stability in the express delivery industry [34]

Market Overview - On the first trading day of August, the A-share market experienced overall weakness, with major sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, semiconductors, and non-bank financials adjusting, leading to declines in the three major stock indices [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3559.95 points, down 0.37%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10991.32 points, down 0.17%; and the ChiNext Index closed at 2322.63 points, down 0.24% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 15,983 billion yuan, a decrease of over 3,300 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Solar Equipment Sector - The solar equipment sector showed strong performance, with the Shenwan Solar Equipment Index closing up 2.60%, leading all secondary industries [3] - Companies such as Jiejia Weichuang and Shuangliang Energy reached the daily limit [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently issued a special energy-saving inspection task list for the polysilicon industry for 2025, requiring local authorities to implement and report results by September 30 [3] - According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC), this move is aimed at optimizing the supply side of the industry and may lead to the exit of backward production capacity, particularly affecting the upstream polysilicon segment [3] Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector also performed actively, with the Shenwan Logistics Index rising by 1.53% [3] - Companies such as YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Holdings saw increases of over 6%, while other stocks like Debang Logistics also followed suit [3] - On July 29, the State Post Bureau held a meeting with express delivery companies to address issues related to "involution" competition and promote high-quality industry development [4] Innovative Drug Sector - The innovative drug sector remained active, with stocks like Weikang Pharmaceutical hitting a 20% daily limit, and companies such as Anglikang and Guizhou Bailin recording consecutive gains [5] - Recent announcements from companies like Haizike and Huahai Pharmaceutical regarding new drug applications have contributed to the sector's momentum [5] - According to Dongfang Securities, the global innovative drug field is shifting from "Made in China" to "Created in China," with domestic pharmaceutical companies enhancing their international competitiveness [5] Dividend and Resource Sectors - Looking ahead to August, the strategy team at Industrial Securities suggests focusing on dividend sectors and resource industries for investment opportunities [6] - Historical data indicates that the first half of August typically sees fewer companies disclosing semi-annual results, leading to a higher success rate for small-cap stocks [6] - As the month progresses and companies begin to report earnings, larger-cap stocks with earnings certainty are expected to gain more attention, particularly in resource sectors like coal and petrochemicals [6]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.37%, while the Shanghai Smart Town Index fell by 0.11%, closing at 2418.75 points with a trading volume of 30.91 billion [1] - The Shanghai Smart Town Index has increased by 5.07% over the past month, 7.76% over the past three months, and 4.02% year-to-date [1] - The index series reflects the performance of listed companies influenced by changes in economic and consumption structures, focusing on themes such as intensive, intelligent, and green low-carbon development [1] Group 2 - The top ten weights in the Shanghai Smart Town Index are: Haier Smart Home (9.35%), Guodian NARI (9.17%), Tebian Electric (7.27%), Hengsheng Electronics (5.77%), Sichuan Changhong (3.86%), Yonyou Network (3.47%), Wingtech Technology (3.42%), Hongfa Technology (3.06%), YTO Express (2.91%), and China Software (2.86%) [1] - The index is composed entirely of companies listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a 100% market share [1] Group 3 - In terms of industry composition, the index sample shows that Information Technology accounts for 38.35%, Industry for 35.74%, Consumer Discretionary for 17.05%, Communication Services for 7.96%, and Utilities for 0.90% [2] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day following the second Friday of June and December [2] - Special circumstances may lead to temporary adjustments to the index, such as delisting of sample companies or corporate actions like mergers and acquisitions [2]

Investment Rating - The report rates the express delivery industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][4]. Core Insights - The National Postal Administration held a meeting on July 29, 2025, to discuss the promotion of high-quality development in the express delivery industry and to address issues related to "involution" competition [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the express delivery business volume grew by 19.3% year-on-year, but the industry average price fell more than expected, leading to a decline in stock prices for major companies [4]. - The report anticipates a potential price stabilization and recovery in the express delivery sector due to favorable policies, which could lead to significant valuation recovery for companies in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Price Elasticity of Profits - The report provides scenarios for profit elasticity based on potential price increases in August 2025, with different assumptions for price hikes in various regions [4]. - Under a neutral scenario, if prices increase by 0.2 yuan in key areas, net profits for major companies are projected to be: Zhongtong 10.3 billion, Yuantong 4.5 billion, Yunda 2.0 billion, and Shentong 1.9 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1.4%, 12.6%, 5.2%, and 86.9% respectively [4]. - In an optimistic scenario, with a nationwide price increase, net profits could rise to: Zhongtong 11.4 billion, Yuantong 5.4 billion, Yunda 2.7 billion, and Shentong 2.7 billion, with growth rates of 12.0%, 34.4%, 43.4%, and 157.5% respectively [4]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the express delivery sector, with projected net profits and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 [7]. - For example, Zhongtong Express is projected to have a net profit of 95.4 billion yuan in 2025 with a PE ratio of 12, while Yuantong Express is expected to have a net profit of 20.05 billion yuan with a PE of 11 [7].

天眼查商业履历信息显示，圆通速递股份有限公司，成立于1992年，位于大连市，是一家以从事邮政业 为主的企业。企业注册资本343614.6954万人民币，实缴资本267890.6861万人民币。公司法定代表人为 喻会蛟。 通过天眼查大数据分析，圆通速递股份有限公司共对外投资了13家企业，参与招投标项目16次，专利信 息13条，此外企业还拥有行政许可3个。 来源：金融界 金融界消息 截至2025年8月1日收盘，圆通速递（600233）报收于15.73元，上涨6.79%，换手率3.05%， 成交量104.45万手，成交金额16.69亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流入9980.76万元，占比成交额5.98%。其中，超大单净流入1.37亿元、 占成交额8.2%，大单净流出3698.10万元、占成交额2.22%，中单净流出流出10467.83万元、占成交额 6.27%，小单净流入487.06万元、占成交额0.29%。 圆通速递最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入170.60亿元、同比增长10.58%，归属净 利润8.57亿元，同比减少9.16%，扣非净利润8.10亿元，同比减少10.29%，流动比率 ...

证券之星消息，8月1日物流板块较上一交易日上涨1.57%，华鹏飞领涨。当日上证指数报收于3559.95， 下跌0.37%。深证成指报收于10991.32，下跌0.17%。物流板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300350 | 华脆飞 | 6.71 | 7.88% | 117.89万 | | 8.21亿 | | 872351 | 华米渡海 | 30.35 | 7.82% | 5.05万 | | 1.54亿 | | 600233 | 同 阅读诗 | 15.73 | 6.79% | 104.45万 | | 16.69 Z | | 002468 | 申通快递 | 16.20 | 6.23% | 101.98万 | | 16.77亿 | | 002120 | 韵达股份 | 8.07 | 6.18% | 224.38万 | | 18.51亿 | | 603056 | 德邦股份 | 16.20 | 4.11% | 56.00万 | | 9.17亿 | | 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to see price stabilization and potential recovery in performance due to government policies against "involution" and recent mergers and acquisitions [1][4]. Short-term Price Stabilization - The express delivery industry has maintained a double-digit growth rate in volume since 2025, with an expected growth rate of 15% for the year. However, due to intense price competition among leading companies, the performance of franchise express companies has declined in Q1 2025, and this trend may continue into Q2 2025 [2][3]. Policy Background and Price Recovery - Under the guidance of local postal authorities, express delivery prices in certain grain-producing areas have shown signs of stabilization. As the off-peak season ends and the peak season begins in September, a broader price recovery is anticipated, which may alleviate the pressure on franchise operators and improve overall industry sentiment. A price increase of 0.1 yuan is estimated to increase net profit per share by 0.0375 yuan for listed companies [3][4]. Long-term Competitive Ecology Optimization - On July 25, Shentong announced a cash acquisition of 100% of Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan. This move aims to create a dual business matrix of "economical express + quality express," optimizing product structure and capturing new market opportunities. The State Post Bureau has been encouraging mergers and acquisitions in the express delivery sector, which is expected to lead to a healthier industry structure and improved competitive ecology, presenting investment opportunities [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Despite significant operational pressure in the express delivery sector in H1 2025, the potential for performance recovery in the short term and competitive ecology optimization in the long term suggests that express companies may see improved results. Recommendations include Jitu Express, Shentong, YTO Express, Zhongtong, and Yunda Express due to their respective growth prospects and market positions [5].

物流板块异动拉升，申通快递涨停，华鹏飞（维权）涨超16%，圆通快递、三羊马跟涨。 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant salaries of CFOs in A-share listed companies, with a total compensation of 4.27 billion yuan and an average salary of 814,800 yuan for 2024 [1] - SF Holding's CFO, He Jie, has the highest salary at 7.848 million yuan, which is notably higher than the average salary of 770,000 yuan for CFOs in the transportation industry [1] Industry Overview - The total compensation for CFOs in the transportation industry (including A-share and New Third Board companies) amounts to 88.26 million yuan, with an average salary of approximately 767,500 yuan and a median salary of about 610,000 yuan [1] - SF Holding's CFO salary is 10 times higher than the average salary of CFOs in the transportation sector, which stands at 770,000 yuan [1] Company-Specific Data - SF Holding: CFO He Jie, salary 7,848,000 yuan, revenue growth 10.1% [2] - Bohai Ferry: CFO Xue Ze, salary 2,798,000 yuan, revenue growth -1.1% [2] - Dazhong Transportation: CFO Guo Hongying, salary 2,300,000 yuan, revenue growth -36.9% [2] - Jianfa Co.: CFO Wei Zhuo, salary 2,270,000 yuan, revenue growth -8.2% [2] - COSCO Shipping Energy: CFO Qi Zhao, salary 1,924,000 yuan, revenue growth 2.2% [2] - CITIC Offshore Helicopter: CFO Guan Gu, salary 1,630,000 yuan, revenue growth 9.8% [2] - Jinjiang Shipping: CFO Qiu Qian, salary 1,531,000 yuan, revenue growth 13.4% [2] - YTO Express: CFO Wang Lixiu, salary 1,416,000 yuan, revenue growth 19.7% [2] - Shentong Express: CFO Liang Bo, salary 1,370,000 yuan, revenue growth 15.3% [2] - China Merchants Energy Shipping: CFO Lou Dongyang, salary 1,363,000 yuan, revenue growth -0.3% [2]