Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [8] Core Views - The express delivery sector is expected to see significant profit recovery due to an early price increase trend, while the aviation sector is still at the bottom of the economic cycle, with potential for mid-term improvements in supply and demand [1][2][3] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In June, the retail sales and express delivery volumes showed year-on-year increases of 5.3% and 15.8% respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to May [3] - The price increase trend has started in core grain-producing areas, which could lead to significant profit recovery for express delivery companies if this trend spreads across all price ranges [3][10] - Key companies recommended include ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shunfeng Express [10] Aviation - The summer travel season has shown weak performance, with domestic ticket prices declining by 7.5% year-on-year, despite a slight increase in passenger load factor [2][16] - The aviation sector is currently at a low point, but improvements in supply growth and demand could enhance profitability in the medium term [26] - Recommended stocks include China National Aviation and Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to benefit from supply-demand improvements [26] Logistics - The logistics sector is experiencing an early price increase in express delivery, and the bulk supply chain is expected to recover alongside rising commodity prices [3][65] - The cross-border e-commerce logistics sector is showing resilience as tariff impacts diminish [3] Shipping and Ports - In July, shipping rates for container shipping and oil transport declined, while dry bulk shipping rates increased due to seasonal demand [35][36] - The report anticipates stable supply-demand dynamics in August, with shipping rates expected to remain volatile [35] Road and Rail - The road transport sector is under pressure due to rising risk preferences and potential impacts from upstream industry dynamics [5] - Rail transport is expected to see flat growth in passenger traffic during the summer, with ongoing observations needed for the impact of upstream industry changes [5]

根据《圆通速递股份有限公司第二期股票期权激励计划（草案）》和中国证 券登记结算有限责任公司上海分公司关于股票期权自主行权的相关规定，并结合 圆通速递股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年半年度报告的披露计划，现 对第二期股票期权激励计划第三个行权期行权时间进行限定，具体如下： 一、公司第二期股票期权激励计划授予的股票期权已于 2025 年 7 月 14 日进 入第三个行权期（行权代码：1000000158），行权期为 2025 年 7 月 14 日至 2026 年 6 月 5 日，目前尚处于行权阶段。 二、第二期股票期权激励计划本次限制行权期为 2025 年 8 月 13 日至 2025 年 8 月 27 日，在此期间全部激励对象将限制行权。 证券代码：600233 证券简称：圆通速递 公告编号：临 2025-054 三、公司将按照有关规定及时向中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分公司 申请办理限制行权相关事宜。 圆通速递股份有限公司 关于第二期股票期权激励计划限制行权期间的 提示性公告 本公司董事局及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 ...

圆通速递最新一期业绩显示，截至2025一季报，公司营业总收入170.60亿元、同比增长10.58%，归属净 利润8.57亿元，同比减少9.16%，扣非净利润8.10亿元，同比减少10.29%，流动比率1.166、速动比率 1.151、资产负债率31.68%。 金融界消息 截至2025年8月5日收盘，圆通速递（600233）报收于15.55元，下跌1.33%，换手率0.76%， 成交量26.01万手，成交金额4.06亿元。 资金流向方面，今日主力资金净流出2177.40万元，占比成交额5.36%。其中，超大单净流出910.10万 元、占成交额2.24%，大单净流出1267.31万元、占成交额3.12%，中单净流出流入721.19万元、占成交 额1.78%，小单净流入1456.21万元、占成交额3.59%。 通过天眼查大数据分析，圆通速递股份有限公司共对外投资了13家企业，参与招投标项目16次，专利信 息13条，此外企业还拥有行政许可3个。 来源：金融界 天眼查商业履历信息显示，圆通速递股份有限公司，成立于1992年，位于大连市，是一家以从事邮政业 为主的企业。企业注册资本343614.6954万人民币，实缴资本 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the express delivery industry in China, particularly focusing on the recent "anti-involution" policies and their impact on pricing and competition in regions like Yiwu and Guangdong [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Increases**: Recent data indicates that express delivery prices in Yiwu and Guangdong have increased, with Yiwu's 0.3 kg regular item price rising by approximately 0.05 CNY compared to June, and Guangdong's 0.1 kg special item price increasing by 0.05 to 0.10 CNY [1][3]. - **Government Intervention**: The State Post Bureau has held meetings to address the issue of cutthroat competition, urging companies to stabilize their networks. Guangdong's drug administration has mandated price increases starting August 1, aligning with Yiwu's standards [2][3]. - **Historical Policy Review**: The effectiveness of past anti-involution policies is reviewed, noting that while the 2021 policies successfully raised industry price levels, the 2023 and 2024 price increases have only provided temporary support due to previous intense competition and cost pressures during the pandemic [1][5][6]. - **Profitability Pressure**: The current price competition is intensifying, with special pricing policies lowering average prices. Although headquarters are gaining more volume, this has led to reduced delivery fees for outlets, increasing operational pressure on both headquarters and franchisees, resulting in a decline in per-package profit [1][7][8]. Additional Important Content - **Future Profit Elasticity**: If significant price increases can be achieved, the profit elasticity for e-commerce express delivery companies will notably increase. For instance, under a hypothetical price increase of 3% to 10%, companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong could see profit elasticity ranging from 10% to 34% and 18% to 60%, respectively [9]. - **Demand Forecast**: The overall demand for e-commerce express delivery is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 15% in the near future. The anti-involution policies are anticipated to stabilize prices, potentially reducing the intensity of competition in the latter half of the year [10]. - **Long-term Competition Dynamics**: While competition is expected to persist, stronger network capabilities among leading mid-tier companies will likely enhance their competitive advantages. Attention should also be given to improvements in last-mile efficiency and the development of autonomous delivery vehicles [10].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Industries**: Rental, Express Delivery, Aviation, Chemical, Cobalt, Coal - **Companies**: China Shipbuilding Leasing, Bank of China Aviation Leasing, Jitu, Shentong, Zhongtong, Yunda, SF Express, Huaxia Airlines, China Shenhua, Huayi Chemical, Wanhua, Hualu, Yangnong, Satellite Chemical, New Chemical, Huayou Cobalt, Likin, Shengtun, Jiayou International Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Labor Market Impact**: The U.S. labor market data has raised expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, increasing the likelihood to 75%, which is favorable for leasing companies like China Shipbuilding Leasing and Bank of China Aviation Leasing [1][2] 2. **Express Delivery Industry**: The political bureau meeting focused on capacity governance rather than production governance, which is expected to accelerate the anti-involution in the express delivery industry. Price increases are anticipated in regions like Yiwu and Guangdong, with recommended companies including Jitu, Shentong, Zhongtong, Yunda, SF Express [1][4] 3. **Aviation Industry Challenges**: Despite efforts to combat market involution, the aviation industry faces skepticism regarding joint price increases due to high transparency of data. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines and major A-share airlines [1][5] 4. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector is experiencing a bottoming out, with PPI showing continuous negative growth. However, prices for certain chemicals like epoxy chloropropane and lithium carbonate are rising due to downstream replenishment [1][8][10] 5. **Cobalt Market Tightness**: The cobalt market is experiencing supply tightness, with prices expected to average 250,000 yuan/ton this year. Companies like Huayou Cobalt and Likin are recommended for investment [1][19][20] 6. **Coal Industry Developments**: China Shenhua's acquisition of National Energy Group assets is expected to enhance its strength and positively impact the coal sector. Current coal prices remain strong despite recent declines in stock performance [1][22][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Chemical Industry Profitability**: The chemical industry saw a revenue growth of 1.4% in June 2025, but profit growth was negative at -9%, indicating a widening profit decline despite revenue increases [1][12] 2. **Market Sentiment in Chemical Sector**: The increase in Penghua Chemical ETF shares by 1.1 billion yuan indicates a growing market interest in the chemical sector, despite it being at a relative bottom compared to other cyclical sectors [1][13] 3. **Potential for Price Stabilization**: The possibility of production limits in the chemical sector could help stabilize prices, as seen in past successful interventions [1][16] 4. **Investment Opportunities in New Materials**: Companies like Dongcai Technology and Xinzhou Bang are highlighted as key players in the new materials sector, particularly in the high-performance resin supply chain [1][17] 5. **Gold and Silver Market Dynamics**: Recent trends show that while industrial metals have risen, precious metals like gold have not seen similar increases, suggesting potential investment opportunities in gold stocks [1][18]

Summary of Conference Call on Express Delivery Industry in Guangdong Province Industry Overview - The express delivery industry in Guangdong Province is experiencing a collective price increase among major companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, and Yunda, driven by rising costs and upcoming social insurance policies [1][25]. - The average daily express delivery volume in Guangdong Province is 129 million packages, with significant contributions from Guangzhou (60 million), Shenzhen (35 million), and Jieyang (30 million) [2][20]. Key Points and Arguments Price Adjustments - Major express companies have raised their minimum prices to above 1.4 yuan per kilogram, with a 15-day price lock period to stabilize the market [1][6]. - Zhongtong's minimum price increased from 1.48 yuan to 1.4 yuan, while Yuantong's rose from 1.45 yuan to 1.4 yuan [9][30]. - The price adjustments are expected to last until the end of the year, with potential for a new price war in 2026, particularly for packages weighing between 0.4 to 3 kilograms [34]. Market Dynamics - Different companies are adopting varied strategies in response to the price hikes. For instance, Yuantong has canceled its excess return policy to enhance profitability, as small packages constitute a significant portion of its business [7][8]. - The price increase may lead to a shift in e-commerce logistics, with manufacturers potentially relocating warehouses to lower-cost regions like Hebei and Henan [1][18]. Regulatory Oversight - The State Post Bureau has established supervisory groups to monitor compliance with the new pricing policies, focusing on data analysis rather than extensive on-site inspections [12][13]. - The regulatory framework aims to prevent price gouging and ensure fair competition among express delivery brands [12]. Competitive Landscape - The competition is expected to intensify in the higher weight segments (above 0.3 kg) during the price lock period, despite the minimum price regulations for lighter packages [11][16]. - The express delivery market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected daily volume of 560 million packages by 2025, indicating a robust demand for logistics services [26][27]. Additional Important Insights - The price differences among companies are minimal, which may limit the potential for significant profit margins and complicate market dynamics [14][30]. - The ongoing price adjustments are seen as a necessary step to prepare for the implementation of new social insurance policies, which could further impact operational costs [25][34]. - The potential for market consolidation exists, but the current growth rate and capacity constraints suggest that no single brand will dominate the market [26][27]. Conclusion - The express delivery industry in Guangdong is undergoing significant changes due to price adjustments and regulatory oversight, with implications for market competition and logistics strategies. The expected growth in delivery volume presents both opportunities and challenges for the companies involved.

Summary of Conference Call on the Express Delivery Industry Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is facing multiple challenges including intensified market competition, the influence of e-commerce platforms, and regulatory pressures, leading to a pronounced issue of overcapacity [1][2] - Technological advancements and improvements in transportation efficiency are further driving down prices, resulting in reduced cost and brand premium differences among companies, making price competition the primary strategy [1][2] Core Points and Arguments - The regulatory framework aims to alleviate cash flow pressures on franchisees, stabilize employment, enhance service satisfaction, and address issues like illegal charges in rural delivery [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy is designed to stabilize the competitive baseline of the industry, preventing competition below cost and improving service quality, although it is not expected to change the market structure significantly [1][3] - Price increases have a significant impact on the profitability elasticity of listed companies, but the effects vary by region and customer tier, making it difficult to generalize price increases across the board [1][6] - Major express delivery companies such as Shentong, Yunda, YTO, and ZTO have room for improvement in EPS, but volatility may increase due to recent price increases [1][7] Important but Overlooked Content - The anti-involution policy has positive implications for investors, but the long-term stability of profitability and valuation improvements are limited [4] - The impact of price increases on overall network performance varies; for instance, a price increase of 0.8 to 0.9 yuan per kilogram may have limited overall network impact (15%-20% of the national average) [4] - The express delivery industry is currently experiencing a high concentration level (CR8 at approximately 85%), indicating a clear oligopoly effect, which suggests that while policies may not alter market dynamics, they will influence the competitive baseline [3] - The success of price increases depends on specific conditions, including the need for reasonable profitability and income levels as desired by regulators [5] Future Market Expectations - Market expectations in the coming months will hinge on the implementation of price increases, including specific regions, magnitude, and sustainability [8] - As the industry enters a peak season, the early initiation of price increases in 2025 suggests that further related policies may emerge, likely serving as positive catalysts for the market [8]

证券之星消息，8月4日物流板块较上一交易日上涨0.57%，宏川智慧领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3583.31，上涨0.66%。深证成指报收于11041.56，上涨0.46%。物流板块个股涨跌见下表： 从资金流向上来看，当日物流板块主力资金净流出5588.92万元，游资资金净流入4353.76万元，散户资金 净流入1235.15万元。物流板块个股资金流向见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 主力净流入 (元) | 主力净占比 游资净流入 (元) | | 游资净占比 散户净流入 (元) | | 散户净占比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002468 | 申通快递 | 7550.12万 | 4.77% | -4993.09万 | -3.15% | -2557.04万 | -1.62% | | 600233 | 圆通速递 | 4279.79万 | 4.51% | 3626.74万 | 3.82% | -7906.53万 | -8.33% | | 605050 | 福然德 | 2334.43万 | 11.81% | -1772.82万 | -8.9 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20250728-20250803） 一、聚焦：继续强调"反内卷"下电商快递投资机会 1、 以史为鉴："反内卷"在快递行业是否有效且能否持续推进？ 1）从 21 年经验看，义乌地区率先涨价并逐步扩散。根据邮管局数据计算，21 年 9 月义乌地区单票价格 2.94 元，环比 8 月 2.64 元上涨 0.3 元，价格同比由 8 月的-16%迅速收窄至-1%；此后，在 21 年四季度，价格仍表现坚挺，10 月 义乌地区单票收入同比回正至+2%，11-12 月同比+8%，2022 年 1-8 月依然保 持同比正增。而从全国范围看，申通、韵达、圆通单票收入环比持续提升，可 推测涨价落地并逐步扩散。21 年 9 月三家环比分别上涨 0.16、0.09 和 0.15 元， 到 11 月三家相较于 8 月分别上涨 0.51、0.33、0.46 元（当中包含旺季季节性 涨幅）。同比看，圆通 21 年 8 月实现单票同比转正，21 年 11 月三家均实现价 格同比正增。2）2021 年-22 年的经验看，行业具备价格-盈利提升的传导潜力。 最为显著的，如圆通从 21Q3 的单票扣非净利 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the express delivery industry [11] Core Insights - The express delivery industry, although not listed among the top ten "anti-involution" sectors, has shown strong stock performance and exceeded expectations in July, reflecting a "latecomer advantage" [2][6] - The industry's characteristics of "stabilizing employment," "stabilizing growth," and "price increase acceptance" drive its performance [2][6] Summary by Sections Stabilizing Employment - The express delivery sector is a significant reservoir for employment, with over 4 million direct workers in 2024, highlighting its role in the flexible employment market [19][21] - The low social security coverage for delivery workers emphasizes the importance of the sector in stabilizing employment [22] Stabilizing Growth - The profitability of express delivery headquarters is under pressure, with average monthly prices dropping to around 2 yuan, leading to intensified price competition [25][26] - The report notes that the pressure on franchise operators is at historical highs, with some facing cash flow issues, necessitating a stable operational environment [26] Price Increase Acceptance - The average cost rate for online shopping express delivery is approximately 5.2%, indicating a relatively high acceptance of price increases among e-commerce customers [34][39] - The report suggests that the "anti-involution" measures could positively impact the quality of service and operational stability in the express delivery industry [34]