暴利行业持续分化洗牌。 作者 | 贝壳XY 编辑 | 小白 正所谓，爱美之心，人皆有之。如今，美容护理已越发融入人们的日常生活中，其市场需求持续扩 大。国家统计局数据显示，我国化妆品类零售总额在过去二十多年里呈现稳步提升，2023年达到4,14 2亿元，较2011年增长接近3倍。 但2024年1-11月的情况却有些不同，化妆品类零售总额罕见出现负增长，同比下滑了1.3%，莫非化妆 品生意不好做了？ （来源：Choice终端，制表：市值风云APP） 这组数据背后，其实意味着两层含义，其一是化妆品需求的小幅减少，其二则是行业内卷越发严重。 消费需求越发向头部品牌集中，质量不佳、规模较小、生产不良的尾部企业正逐渐被淘汰出局，一场 席卷整个行业的大洗牌或许正在进行。 动荡过后，仍能留在牌桌上的企业必定各有各的看家本领，今天我们便从美容护理板块前十大市值公 司来一探究竟。 参考申万行业分类及截至2024年12月31日的市值排名，前十大公司分别为爱美客（300896.SZ）、珀 莱雅（603605.SH）、华熙生物（688363.SH）、稳健医疗（300888.SZ）、锦波生物（832982.BJ）、 贝泰妮（30095 ...

Financial Performance Expectations - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for 2024 to be between -7.1 billion and -8.8 billion CNY, indicating a significant loss compared to a profit of 5.00 billion CNY in the previous year[4]. - The anticipated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -7.2 billion and -8.9 billion CNY for 2024[4]. Goodwill Impairment and Strategic Changes - The company plans to recognize goodwill impairment of 5.5 billion to 6.8 billion CNY due to the decline in revenue and gross profit from overseas operations[6]. - The main reasons for the expected loss include goodwill impairment, a strategic shift in business operations, and a decrease in investment income due to external economic conditions[6]. - The company has undergone strategic restructuring focusing on core brands, brand building, online presence, and operational efficiency, which has negatively impacted current revenue and profits[7]. Organizational Adjustments - The company has adjusted its organizational structure to enhance decision-making efficiency and attract new talent[7]. Financial Asset Valuation - The company’s financial assets have seen a significant decrease in fair value, contributing to reduced investment income[7]. - The performance forecast has not been audited by a registered accountant, and the final impairment amount will be determined by a qualified evaluation agency[9]. Operational Management - The company emphasizes that its production and operational management remain normal and are not affected by the goodwill impairment[10].

股票简称：上海家化 股票代码：600315 公告编号：临 2024-043 上海家化联合股份有限公司 关于参加2024年三季报沪市主板美妆行业 专场集体业绩说明会的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 重要内容提示： 上海家化联合股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）已于 2024 年 10 月 29 日发布公司 2024 年第三季度报告，详见上海证券交易所网站（www.sse.com.cn）。 为便于广大投资者更全面深入地了解公司 2024 年三季度经营成果、财务状况， 公司计划于 2024 年 12 月 3 日参加 2024 年三季报沪市主板美妆行业专场集体业 绩说明会，会议时间下午 13:30-17:00，会上将就投资者关心的问题进行交流。 一、说明会类型 本次业绩说明会以视频和网络互动方式召开，公司将针对 2024 年三季度 经营成果及财务指标的具体情况与投资者进行互动交流和沟通，在信息披露允许 的范围内就投资者普遍关注的问题进行回答。 二、说明会召开的时间、地点 （一）会议召开时间：2024 年 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Jahwa (600315 SH) [8] Core Views - Shanghai Jahwa's Q3 2024 performance was under pressure due to industry-wide slowdown and strategic adjustments, with revenue declining 20 93% YoY to 1 156 billion yuan and net profit turning negative [5][6] - The company is undergoing organizational, brand, and channel strategy reforms to improve efficiency and focus resources on key brands [7] - Despite short-term pressure, the report expects the reform effects to gradually materialize, with projected EPS of 0 33, 0 53, and 0 67 yuan for 2024-2026 [7] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue breakdown: Personal care (including Six God and Maxam) 532 million yuan, Cosmetics (including Herborist and Dr Yu) 95 million yuan, Innovative categories (including Chinfie and GF) 151 million yuan, Overseas business (Tommee Tippee) 374 million yuan [6] - Gross margin narrowed by 3 24 percentage points to 54 49% in Q3 2024, mainly due to reduced cosmetics sales proportion [6] - Expense ratios increased: sales expenses rose 6 83 percentage points to 50 03%, management expenses up 0 17 percentage points to 11 4%, R&D expenses increased 0 57 percentage points to 3 07% [6] Strategic Reforms - Organizational restructuring: Adjusted domestic business structure into Personal Care, Cosmetics, and Innovation divisions to improve decision-making efficiency [7] - Brand strategy: Focused resources on first-tier brands (Six God and Dr Yu) to become category leaders, while developing second-tier brands (Herborist and Maxam) as value-for-money options [7] - Channel strategy: Online focus on interest e-commerce and content-driven operations, offline emphasis on retail channel expansion and efficiency improvement [7] Market Performance - Current stock price: 17 27 yuan (as of November 15, 2024) [8] - 12-month high/low: 23 88/13 67 yuan [8] - Recent performance: Shanghai Jahwa underperformed the CSI 300 Index and SSE Composite Index over the past 12 months [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.82 CNY per share based on a 25x PE for 2025 [4][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.477 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.07%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 163 million CNY, down 58.72% year-on-year [1][2]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 1.156 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 20.93%, with a net loss of 75 million CNY, marking a significant drop of 180.85% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments, including a shift from distributor to self-operated sales channels and reducing inventory in department stores, which has impacted both revenue and profit [2][3]. Revenue Summary - In Q3 2024, the revenue breakdown was as follows: personal care products 530 million CNY (46.16%), cosmetics 95 million CNY (8.25%), innovative products 150 million CNY (13.13%), and overseas products 370 million CNY (32.46%) [2]. - The average prices for these segments showed mixed results, with personal care products increasing by 4.7% year-on-year, while cosmetics decreased by 0.36%, innovative products dropped by 19.34%, and overseas products increased by 0.53% [2]. Profitability Summary - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 54.49%, down 3.24 percentage points year-on-year. Excluding the impact of strategic adjustments, the gross margin for domestic operations increased by 1.1 percentage points [2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was -6.51%, a decrease of 12.89 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 360 million CNY, 480 million CNY, and 600 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4]. - The expected revenue growth rates are projected at 2.0% for 2024, 9.2% for 2025, and 9.8% for 2026 [3][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 revenue decline of 21%, resulting in a single-quarter loss of 75.3 million yuan, attributed to rising costs and increased sales investments [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company generated revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 59% year-on-year [1] - The company is undergoing organizational restructuring and is expected to reach a turning point in performance [1][3] Financial Summary - Q3 revenue was 1.16 billion yuan, down 21% year-on-year, with a net loss of 75 million yuan compared to a profit of 93.13 million yuan in the same quarter last year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 54.5%, a decrease of 3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -6.5%, down 13 percentage points year-on-year [1][2] - The company is implementing a departmental reform, with the personal care division showing a 4.7% increase in average sales price [2] Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 270 million yuan, 490 million yuan, and 620 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 42, 22, and 18 [3] - The revenue forecast for 2024 is 607.1 million yuan, reflecting a 7.98% decrease, while a recovery is expected in subsequent years [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its long-term growth potential [2][4]. Core Insights - The company is currently undergoing a strategic transformation, which has led to short-term pressure on profitability. However, there are expectations for a growth inflection point as organizational adjustments and brand strategies take effect [2][3]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.477 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.07%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 163 million yuan, down 58.72% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights the completion of key talent iterations in Q3 2024, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and decision-making processes [2]. - The company is focusing on brand building and marketing strategies to enhance brand visibility and engagement, particularly targeting younger demographics [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 1.156 billion yuan, a decline of 20.93% year-on-year, and a net loss of 75 million yuan, a significant drop of 180.85% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 59.41%, while the net profit margin was 3.63%, reflecting a decline compared to the previous year [2]. - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 272 million, 393 million, and 493 million yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of -45.5%, 44.3%, and 25.5% [3][5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a flat management structure and has completed the appointment of general managers for its five front-end business units, aiming to improve operational efficiency [2]. - The report notes successful marketing campaigns, such as the "Cooling Festival" for the Liu Shen brand, which generated significant engagement and brand awareness [2]. - The company is leveraging multiple online platforms for its "Double 11" sales strategy, indicating early signs of success in its online channel reforms [2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company's strategic adjustments will lead to improved sales channel efficiency and internal growth, with a focus on core product lines [2][3]. - The expected earnings per share for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.41, 0.58, and 0.73 yuan respectively, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 41X, 28X, and 23X [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Shanghai Jahwa (600315 SH) [2][4] Core Views - Shanghai Jahwa is undergoing strategic transformation, with short-term profitability pressure but long-term growth potential [2] - The company completed core talent iteration in Q3 2024, improving operational quality [2] - Organizational restructuring has been implemented, with five front-end business unit general managers appointed by Q3 2024 [2] - Brand building efforts are showing results, with multiple brands achieving significant exposure and growth [2] - Online channel reform during Double 11 shopping festival demonstrated initial success [2] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 24Q1-3 revenue reached 4 477 billion yuan, down 12 07% YoY [2] - 24Q1-3 net profit attributable to parent company was 163 million yuan, down 58 72% YoY [2] - 24Q3 revenue was 1 156 billion yuan, down 20 93% YoY [2] - 24Q3 net profit attributable to parent company was -75 million yuan, down 180 85% YoY [2] Profitability Indicators - 24Q1-3 gross margin was 59 41%, down 0 11 pct YoY [2] - 24Q3 gross margin was 54 49%, down 3 24 pct YoY [2] - 24Q1-3 sales expense ratio was 45 12%, up 1 69 pct YoY [2] - 24Q3 sales expense ratio was 50 03%, up 6 83 pct YoY [2] Organizational Restructuring - Implemented flat management structure with front, middle, and back offices [2] - Established five front-end business units covering cosmetics, personal care, innovation, overseas, and offline sales [2] - Completed rotation and new talent introduction in middle and back offices by Q3 2024 [2] Brand Performance Six God - Focused on young consumer products like Cool Egg [2] - Third Cool Festival in July achieved over 400 million exposures and 5 75 million interactions [2] - New fans increased by 10% YoY [2] Herborist - Strengthened medical research cooperation with top hospitals [2] - Developed products for dry sensitive and oily sensitive skin [2] Dr Yu - Collaborated with new generation celebrities for brand rejuvenation [2] - Exclusive sponsorship of Tan Jianci's concert in August [2] - Achieved GMV of 20 million yuan during Tmall Super Brand Day [2] Maxam - Operated own IP "Old Baby" [2] - Collaborated with Wang Lin and Fan Huohuo in live streaming [2] - Gained nearly 200 000 new fans by Q3 2024 [2] Financial Forecast Revenue - 2024E revenue forecast at 7 083 billion yuan, up 7 4% YoY [3] - 2025E revenue forecast at 7 587 billion yuan, up 7 1% YoY [3] - 2026E revenue forecast at 8 385 billion yuan, up 10 5% YoY [3] Net Profit - 2024E net profit forecast at 272 million yuan, down 45 5% YoY [3] - 2025E net profit forecast at 393 million yuan, up 44 3% YoY [3] - 2026E net profit forecast at 493 million yuan, up 25 5% YoY [3] Valuation - 2024E PE at 41X [3] - 2025E PE at 28X [3] - 2026E PE at 23X [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance was under pressure due to multiple internal and external factors, with a revenue decline of 12.07% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 4.477 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 163 million yuan, with a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 120 million yuan. In Q3 alone, revenue was 1.156 billion yuan, down 20.93% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 75 million yuan [3]. - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments, with a focus on optimizing products, brands, and organizational structure. New product launches and adjustments in online channel operations have shown initial positive results during major promotional events [4]. - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting revenues of 6.052 billion yuan, 6.471 billion yuan, and 7.041 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 318 million yuan, 435 million yuan, and 492 million yuan, respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.47 yuan, 0.64 yuan, and 0.73 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios (PE) of 36x, 26x, and 23x [5]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the gross margin was 59.41%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.63%, down 4.11 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.597 billion yuan in 2023, a decline of 7.16% compared to 2022, with a net profit of 500 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.93% [6]. - The projected financials for 2024 include a revenue of 6.052 billion yuan, a net profit of 318 million yuan, and an EPS of 0.47 yuan, indicating a significant decline in profitability compared to previous years [6][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company aims to become a leading daily cosmetics company in China and expand its presence overseas by enhancing its brand and product quality [4]. - The company has seen revenue from personal care products reach 532 million yuan, while beauty products generated 95.07 million yuan, and innovative products contributed 1.51 billion yuan in revenue [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company's market capitalization is approximately 11.179 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 11.179 billion yuan [7]. - The stock price has shown a significant decline of 39% over the past year, indicating challenges in market performance [8]. Conclusion - The company is currently facing challenges due to strategic adjustments and market conditions, but it has potential for recovery with ongoing product and brand optimization efforts. The maintained "Buy" rating reflects confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects despite short-term pressures [2][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][3][8] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to internal strategic adjustments and intensified external competition, with a revenue decline of 12.07% year-on-year in the first three quarters, totaling 4.476 billion [1][4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 58.72% year-on-year to 163 million, with a significant loss of 75.3 million in the third quarter [1][4] - The company is undergoing a transformation with management changes and restructuring of its domestic business units, including adjustments in the personal care and beauty divisions, and the introduction of an innovation division [1][4] - Despite the challenges, the company is increasing brand marketing investments, which has led to a narrowing of revenue decline in overseas markets [1][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.156 billion, down 20.93% year-on-year, and a net profit loss of 75.3 million, compared to a profit of 93.1 million in the same period last year [1][4] - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 were 54.49% and -6.51%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.24 and 12.89 percentage points [1][4] - The company’s cash flow from operations was -219 million in Q3 2024, compared to 144 million in the same period last year, primarily due to sales returns and improved supplier relationships [1][4] Regional Performance - In Q3 2024, overseas revenue was 375 million, down 5.64% year-on-year, affected by low birth rates and increased competition in the baby products category [1][4] - Domestic revenue for the same period was 780 million, down 26.68%, with approximately 13 percentage points of the decline attributed to strategic adjustments [1][4] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 303 million, 361 million, and 404 million, respectively, down from previous estimates of 427 million, 473 million, and 503 million [1][6] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 37, 31, and 28 times for the respective years [1][6]