Core Insights - The apparel industry in China is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with retail sales of clothing reaching 1,071.62 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a mere 0.1% increase year-on-year, a significant decline of 15.3% compared to 2023 [1] - Among 25 selected publicly listed companies in the apparel sector, only 7 reported increases in both revenue and net profit, while 10 companies experienced declines in both metrics [1][2] Revenue and Profit Overview - In 2024, 15 companies reported a decline in net profit, and 13 saw a decrease in revenue. Notably, 10 companies experienced declines in both revenue and net profit [2] - Companies with declining performance include: - Baoxini: Revenue of 5.153 billion yuan, down 1.91%; net profit of 495 million yuan, down 29.07% [2][3] - Hailan Home: Revenue of 20.957 billion yuan, down 2.65%; net profit of 2.159 billion yuan, down 26.88% [2][3] - Sanfu Outdoor: Revenue of 800 million yuan, down 5.45%; net profit loss of 21 million yuan, down 158.83% [2][3] - Anzheng Fashion: Revenue of 2.034 billion yuan, down 6.23%; net profit loss of 124 million yuan, down 365.03% [2][3] - Aimer: Revenue of 3.163 billion yuan, down 7.71%; net profit of 163 million yuan, down 46.56% [2][3] Losses and Underperformance - Six companies reported losses, including: - Ge Li Si: Loss of 310 million yuan [4][5] - Sanfu Outdoor: Loss of 21 million yuan [4][5] - Anzheng Fashion: Loss of 124 million yuan [4][5] - Xinhe Shares: Loss of 67 million yuan [4][5] - Meibang Clothing: Loss of 195 million yuan [4][5] - Annai: Loss of 115 million yuan [4][5] Performance Rankings - The top three companies in revenue growth are: - 361 Degrees: 19.6% growth [7] - Tanshan: 14.44% growth [7] - Anta Sports: 13.6% growth [7] - The bottom three in revenue growth are: - Meibang Clothing: -49.79% [7] - Annai: -20.7% [7] - Xinhe Shares: -20.1% [7] Net Profit Growth Rankings - The top three companies in net profit growth are: - Urban Beauty: 197% growth [9] - Anta Sports: 52.4% growth [9] - Tanshan: 48.5% growth [9] - The bottom three in net profit growth are: - Meibang Clothing: -715.45% [9] - Ge Li Si: -392.99% [9] - Anzheng Fashion: -365.03% [9]

Group 1: Market Entry and Expansion - CHAGEE opened its first store in North America at Westfield Century City in Los Angeles, showcasing modern tea drinks and attracting long queues [1] - The new tea beverage industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with brands like ChaPanda, MIXUE, HEYTEA, and CHAGEE expanding internationally [3] - Several tea companies, including MIXUE, have successfully listed in Hong Kong, indicating a trend of Chinese retail brands going global [4] Group 2: Factors Driving International Expansion - The global expansion of brands is driven by the need for internationalization, competitive domestic markets, and the growing overseas Chinese population [4][5][6] - Establishing physical stores abroad enhances brand visibility and can attract investment, which may lead to better domestic store locations in the future [5] - The increasing number of overseas Chinese consumers creates demand for Chinese products, which are often perceived as cost-effective [4] Group 3: Key Markets for Chinese Brands - Hong Kong is a significant market for brands due to its proximity to mainland China, making it easier for brands with established retail networks in southern China to enter [7] - Southeast Asia, particularly Singapore, is a competitive market for Chinese brands, driven by a large Chinese population [8] - European cities like London and Paris are viewed as essential for brands aiming for international recognition, although cultural differences pose challenges [9] Group 4: Challenges in International Markets - Chinese brands face challenges in gaining local consumer recognition and adapting to cultural differences, particularly in Europe [17] - Supply chain and logistics issues require careful planning before entering new markets [18] - High operational costs in markets like Singapore and Europe necessitate thorough financial planning [18] Group 5: Localization Strategies - Successful market entry requires understanding local consumer habits and preferences, with brands needing to adjust their offerings accordingly [19][20] - Brands should focus on high-traffic areas for store locations to maximize visibility and customer engagement [19] - The importance of local partnerships for smooth market entry and operations is emphasized, as they can help navigate local regulations and consumer preferences [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][12] Core Views - The company reported a decline in sales performance in Q3 2024, with expectations for improvement during the peak season [3] - The company achieved revenue of 20.96 billion and net profit of 2.16 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.65% and 26.88% respectively [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.8 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.969 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 91.22% [4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company are as follows: - 2023A: Revenue 21.53 billion, Net Profit 2.95 billion - 2024A: Revenue 20.96 billion, Net Profit 2.16 billion - 2025E: Revenue 23.02 billion, Net Profit 2.47 billion - 2026E: Revenue 24.86 billion, Net Profit 2.77 billion - 2027E: Revenue 26.50 billion, Net Profit 3.06 billion - The growth rates for revenue and net profit are projected to be -3% and -27% for 2024, and 10% and 14% for 2025 respectively [3][9] Brand Performance - The main brand's revenue faced pressure, while other brands like Sporz and JD Outlet showed significant growth [5] - The main brand's revenue for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 15.27 billion and 4.64 billion respectively, with declines of 7.22% and 9.52% year-on-year [6] - The overseas business performed well, achieving revenue of 355 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.75% [6] Channel Performance - Online channels continued to drive growth, with revenues of 4.42 billion and 1.01 billion for 2024 and Q1 2025, reflecting increases of 35.63% and 19.76% year-on-year [6] - The offline direct sales channel showed revenue growth of 5.44% and 13.15% for the same periods [6] Profitability and Cost Structure - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 44.52%, with a slight increase of 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [9] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 10.45%, down 3.11 percentage points year-on-year [9] - Selling expenses increased due to changes in business structure, with selling expense ratio rising significantly [9] Inventory and Cash Flow - Inventory at the end of 2024 reached 11.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 28.38% [9] - The inventory turnover days increased to 330 days, reflecting a rise of 47 days year-on-year [9] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 2.32 billion, with cash earnings of 2.68 billion [11]

2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/5/6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 8.05 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 10.04/5.15 | | 总市值(亿元) | 386.62 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 386.62 | | 总股本(亿股) | 48.03 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 48.03 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 45.73 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 海澜之家 沪深300 相关研究报告 纺织服饰/服装家纺 公 司 研 究 《Q3 弱零售下负经营杠杆显著，并表 及备货推高库存—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.10.31 《Q2 线下承压线上高增，斯搏兹并 表，延续高分红—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.22 2025Q1 主业稳健，期待京东奥莱、FCC 双线发力 ——公司信息更新报告 lvming@kysec.cn 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师） zhoujiale@kyse ...

| 日期 | 2025/5/6 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 8.05 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 10.04/5.15 | | 总市值(亿元) | 386.62 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 386.62 | | 总股本(亿股) | 48.03 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 48.03 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 45.73 | 股价走势图 纺织服饰/服装家纺 公 司 研 究 2025 年 05 月 07 日 投资评级：买入（维持） 2025Q1 主业稳健，期待京东奥莱、FCC 双线发力 ——公司信息更新报告 lvming@kysec.cn 数据来源：聚源 -48% -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 海澜之家 沪深300 相关研究报告 《Q3 弱零售下负经营杠杆显著，并表 及备货推高库存—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.10.31 《Q2 线下承压线上高增，斯搏兹并 表，延续高分红—公司信息更新报告》 -2024.8.22 吕明（分析师） 周嘉乐（分析师） 张霜凝（分析师） zhoujiale@kyse ...

海澜之家总部爆火背后，是营收和净利润双双下滑。 进入2025年4月下旬，发布2024年年报的A股上市公司占总数的90%以上。直至4月30日，国内服装行业头部上市公司海澜之家的财报才姗姗来迟，2024年 海澜之家营收209.6亿元，同比下滑2.65%；净利润21.59亿元，同比下滑26.88%。 此前从其2024年前三季度财报可以看出。截至到2024年9月末，海澜之家的营收、归母净利润等业绩表现已经陷入负增长，2024年前三季度，海澜之家营 收152.6亿元，同比下滑1.99%；归母净利润19.08亿元，同比下滑22.19%。同期该公司的存货规模暴涨创下历史新高，达到123亿元。近6个月以内共有27 家机构对海澜之家的2024年度业绩作出预测；预测2024年净利润22.95亿元，较去年同比下降22.24%、每股收益0.48元，较去年同比下降29.41%。至此， 海澜之家交出的2024年答卷甚至低于市场预期。 受此影响，海澜之家近期股价涨幅不大，进入2025年股价整体上涨约5%，低于2024年全年14%的涨幅。但从整体上看，如今海澜之家的股价相比2015年 的17.11元的股价高点已经腰斩有余，截至4月29日海澜 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Add" [6] Core Viewpoints - The textile and apparel industry is expected to recover in 2024, with a focus on quality brands in 2025. The apparel brands are projected to face profit pressure in 2024, with a slight improvement anticipated in Q1 2025 [1][4] - The textile manufacturing sector shows stable growth, with a significant profit increase driven by improved capacity utilization. The impact of recent tariff changes may accelerate industry optimization in the medium to long term [2][4] - The gold and jewelry sector exhibits performance divergence, with brands that focus on store expansion and product differentiation outperforming the industry average [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Apparel Brands - In 2024, the revenue of key apparel companies (A-shares only) is expected to decline by 2.2%, with a net profit drop of 24.1%. The decline in profit is more significant than revenue due to negative operating leverage and increased expense ratios [1][21] - The gross margin for key apparel companies is projected to increase by 0.4 percentage points to 56.8% in 2024, with a further increase of 1.1 percentage points to 57.4% in Q1 2025 [1][33] - Cash flow for most brands in 2024 is expected to align with performance, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio [1][49] 2. Textile Manufacturing - The textile manufacturing sector is projected to see a revenue increase of 6.4% and a net profit growth of 26.9% in 2024, with leading companies like Shenzhou International and Huayi Group showing revenue growth rates of 15% and 19% respectively [2][4] - The revenue growth for key textile manufacturing companies is expected to slow down in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 due to high base effects, but overall performance remains stable [2][4] - The sector is expected to benefit from a more integrated and internationalized supply chain, particularly for leading companies [2][4] 3. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector is expected to see a revenue decline of 1.7% in 2024, with a net profit increase of 3.6%. Companies with strong product differentiation and store expansion strategies are likely to outperform [3][4] - The consumption of gold jewelry is projected to decrease by 25% in 2024, while the demand for gold bars and coins is expected to rise by 25% [3][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - For apparel brands, recommended stocks include Anta Sports, with a projected PE of 18 times for 2025, and other companies like Tabo, Weigao Medical, and Hailan Home, with varying PE ratios [4][9] - In textile manufacturing, recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huayi Group, with projected PE ratios of 11 and 15 times respectively for 2025 [4][9] - In the gold and jewelry sector, companies like Chow Tai Fook and Chaohongji are highlighted, with projected PE ratios of 16 and 18 times for 2025 [4][9]

Industry Overview - China is a significant global producer and exporter of textiles, with the import and export amounts of ties and bow ties reflecting domestic and international market demand and industry competitiveness [1][11] - In 2024, the import amount of ties is projected to be $13.13 million, while the export amount is expected to reach $189.74 million, indicating a strong export market [1][11] - A substantial portion of imported ties comes from internationally renowned brands, which leverage high-end design, quality materials, and craftsmanship to target premium consumer markets [1][11] Industry Definition and Classification - Ties are accessories worn at the collar of shirts, serving decorative and aesthetic purposes, primarily used in formal or semi-formal settings [2] - They are typically made from materials such as silk and polyester, with variations in length and width based on style and trends [2] Industry Chain Analysis - The tie industry chain consists of tightly connected upstream, midstream, and downstream operations [4] - Upstream includes raw material supply, such as silk and polyester fibers, which directly impact tie quality [4] - Midstream focuses on manufacturing, including design, cutting, sewing, and finishing, while branding and marketing shape market image [4] - Downstream sales channels include offline department stores, specialty shops, menswear stores, and online platforms, catering to various consumer needs [4] Development History - The Chinese tie industry has evolved through three stages: initiation, rapid development, and transformation [6][7] - The initiation phase began in the late 1970s, coinciding with economic reforms that spurred textile industry growth [6] - The rapid development phase saw increased domestic and international demand, leading to the establishment of industrial clusters and brand building [7] - The current transformation phase emphasizes technological investment, design innovation, and market expansion to achieve high-quality development [7] Upstream Analysis - China has become the world's largest producer of polyester fibers, with production exceeding 60 million tons in 2024, accounting for over 80% of global output [9] - The stable growth of polyester fiber production provides a reliable raw material supply for the tie industry, reducing supply chain risks [9] Current Industry Status - The import and export amounts of ties and bow ties have shown fluctuations due to domestic textile industry upgrades and changes in international trade environments [11] - China's tie industry benefits from cost advantages in raw material procurement and labor compared to foreign competitors [11] Consumer Demographics - Males constitute 85% of tie consumers, driven by traditional business etiquette and workplace dress codes [13] - The female consumer segment, currently at 15%, is expected to grow as fashion trends evolve and women's workplace status rises [13] Key Companies Analysis - The competitive landscape of the tie industry is characterized by diversification and differentiation among brands [15] - High-end brands like Goldlion and Baobei Tie dominate the business formal sector, focusing on quality and brand positioning [15] - Companies like Youngor and Romon leverage their menswear brand strengths to expand their tie product lines [15] - Hailan Home targets the mass market with affordable, stylish designs, appealing to a broad consumer base [15] Future Development Trends - Product innovation and design diversification are emerging trends, with brands incorporating cultural elements and artistic patterns into tie designs [21] - The female tie market presents significant growth potential, with brands encouraged to develop collections tailored to women's preferences [22][23] - Smart manufacturing is a key path for industry transformation, enhancing production efficiency and sustainability through automation and digitalization [24]

纺织服饰 上 市 公 司 《海澜之家（600398）点评：线下动销受 零售环境影响，等待大众消费拐点》 2024/10/31 《海澜之家（600398）点评：国民品牌零 售韧性优于行业，中期高分红 11 亿元》 2024/08/20 2025 年 05 月 05 日 海澜之家 (600398) ——性价比服装零售多业态成型，京东奥莱具高爆发潜力 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 8.30 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 10.04/5.15 | | 市净率 | 2.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 9.52 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 39,863 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,279.03/9,899.82 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | | 3.74 | | 资产负债率% | | 44.92 | | 总股本/流通 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to accelerate the opening of JD Outlet stores, which aligns with the trend of rational consumption and the demand for high cost-performance products [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting revenues of 221 billion, 243 billion, and 268 billion respectively, with net profits of 24 billion, 27 billion, and 29 billion [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%, and a net profit of 900 million, up 5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 4% year-on-year, with a net profit drop of 50% [1]. - The total revenue for 2024 was 21 billion, down 3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.2 billion, down 27% [1]. Brand Performance - The main brand, HLA, generated revenue of 15.3 billion in 2024, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 47% [1]. - The group purchase and customization series saw revenue of 2.2 billion in 2024, a decline of 3% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the HLA series revenue was 4.6 billion, down 10% year-on-year, while the group purchase series revenue increased by 18% to 600 million [2][1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding into the sports sector through a partnership with Adidas, enhancing its retail management capabilities [3]. - A strategic collaboration with JD has been established to create a new "City Outlet" business model, leveraging JD's brand and traffic advantages [3]. - The company aims to expand its overseas presence, achieving 355 million in revenue from international markets in 2024, a growth of 30.75% [4].