Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.271 billion yuan for H1 2024, a decrease of 7.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year [2] - The consumption environment is under pressure, leading to a decline in the main business revenue of the company [2] - The company is focusing on channel inventory digestion and is not pushing for aggressive sales growth, which is expected to benefit long-term development [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q2 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.165 billion yuan, a decline of 22.65% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 88.40% year-on-year [2] - The revenue from liquor products in Q2 2024 was 1.022 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.02% year-on-year, with mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor revenues of 876 million yuan and 146 million yuan, down 19.33% and 47.34% respectively [2] Market Expansion - The company generated 910 million yuan in revenue from the domestic market, down 2.46% year-on-year, and 2.076 billion yuan from the external market, down 11.16% year-on-year for H1 2024 [3] - The number of distributors increased by 14 to 2,809, indicating ongoing efforts to cultivate base markets and expand nationally [3] Profitability and Costs - The gross margin for H1 2024 decreased by 6.16 percentage points to 69.44%, and the net margin decreased by 5.26 percentage points to 18.09% [3] - The company faced increased sales and management expense ratios due to upfront advertising costs and rising employee salaries [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to experience revenue growth rates of -2.50%, 4.79%, and 11.80% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit growth rates of -29.04%, 3.07%, and 15.59% respectively [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.77 yuan, 3.89 yuan, and 4.49 yuan respectively, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.6 times for 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 3.271 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of 591 million for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year change of +7.32% and -35.75% respectively [2] - The company is adopting a "control volume and stabilize price" strategy to cope with the pressure on profits, focusing on long-term quality development [2] - The company’s gross margin decreased by 10.96 percentage points to 60.93% in Q2 2024, primarily due to a weakening structure in mid-to-high-end liquor [2] - The company is expected to see a decline in revenue for 2024, with projected revenues of 6.387 billion, 6.591 billion, and 6.954 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 9.8% in 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts - For 2024, the company’s revenue is projected to be 6.387 billion with a net profit of 1.197 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 32.5% [3][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 3.59 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 [3][8] - The company’s gross margin is expected to be 69.89% in 2024, with a net profit margin of 18.73% [7][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [4][9]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue and profit in the second quarter of 2024, with revenue down 7.3% year-on-year and net profit down 35.7% [5][6]. - The second quarter saw a revenue of 1.165 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 88.4% year-on-year [5][6]. - The company is focusing on maintaining channel health and managing inventory levels amid weak demand in the off-season [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 3.271 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 591 million yuan, down 35.7% year-on-year [5][6]. - The second quarter's performance was particularly weak, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue at 876 million yuan (down 19.33%) and low-end liquor revenue at 146 million yuan (down 47.34%) [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 decreased by 11 percentage points to 60.9% due to product mix changes and increased discounts in certain categories [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The company reported a decline in both domestic and international sales, with domestic revenue at 1.022 billion yuan (down 18.25%) and international revenue at 655 million yuan (down 28.46%) [5][6]. - The number of distributors increased to 2,809 by the end of June, reflecting a slight improvement in distribution channels [5][6]. Profitability and Cost Management - The net profit margin decreased by 19.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rigid costs and declining sales [5][6]. - Sales expenses increased by 37% year-on-year, driven by efforts to support distributors and enhance market penetration [5][6]. Future Outlook - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025, expecting revenues of 6.119 billion yuan (down 13.6%) and 6.648 billion yuan (up 8.6%) respectively [6][7]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 1.279 billion yuan (down 27.8%), with a slight recovery expected in 2025 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) as of August 22, 2024 [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned for long-term sustainable development and is actively adjusting inventory levels to respect market conditions, which is reflected in the maintained "Outperform" rating [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 590 million yuan, down 35.8% [1]. - In Q2 2024, revenue was 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22.7%, with a net profit of 40 million yuan, also down significantly [1]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 1.29 billion yuan, 1.26 billion yuan, and 1.35 billion yuan respectively, reflecting declines of 27.1%, 2.1%, and growth of 6.8% [1]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor was 880 million yuan and 150 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 19.4% and 47.3% [3]. - The decline in mid-to-high-end liquor was attributed to a significant drop in business demand, while the ordinary liquor segment faced challenges due to the clearance of customized products [3]. Inventory and Prepayments - As of the end of Q2 2024, the company's contract liabilities stood at 162 million yuan, a decrease of 68.12% year-on-year, indicating a low level of prepayments due to inventory digestion and price maintenance efforts [4]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin in Q2 2024 was 60.93%, down 11.21 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products [5]. - The net profit margin fell by 19.73 percentage points to 3.64% in Q2 2024, reflecting a significant decline in profitability [5]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 6.375 billion yuan, 6.044 billion yuan, and 6.142 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year changes of -10.0%, -5.2%, and +1.6% [6]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.88 yuan, 3.79 yuan, and 4.05 yuan, respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with expectations for a recovery in industry conditions [6] - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected to be 5.937 billion, 5.346 billion, and 5.591 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -16.16%, -9.95%, and +4.58% [11][12] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 968 million, 875 million, and 923 million yuan for the same period, with year-on-year changes of -45.33%, -9.69%, and +5.51% [11][12] - The company is expected to maintain a steady channel expansion, which will provide significant elasticity once business demand recovers [11] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.271 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year [11] - Q2 2024 revenue was 1.165 billion yuan, down 22.61% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 88.40% year-on-year [11] - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 60.93%, a decrease of 11.21 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company has increased its distributors by 154 compared to the end of 2023, indicating steady channel expansion [11] Financial Data and Valuation - The projected PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 17, 19, and 18 times respectively [11] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 16.613 billion yuan [7] - The company's asset-liability ratio stands at 36.59% [7]

舍得酒业（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600702） 公司点评 静待市场修复 ——舍得酒业 2024Q2 点评 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------------| | 报告日期： | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 45.50 | | 近 12 个月最高/ | 147.16/45.04 | | 总股本（百万股） | 333 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 332 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.73 | | 总市值（亿元） | 152 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 151 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -75% -51% -26% -2% 23% 8/23 11/23 2/24 5/24 舍得酒业 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 主要观 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is facing challenges due to macroeconomic conditions but is proactively managing inventory and pricing strategies to maintain its market position. The product "舍之道/T68" is expected to contribute positively to revenue as the industry demand recovers [1][3] - The company reported a total revenue of 1.165 billion yuan in Q2 2024, a decrease of 22.61% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 41 million yuan, down 88.40% [1] - For H1 2024, total revenue was 3.271 billion yuan, a decline of 7.28%, with a net profit of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% [1] Revenue Analysis - In Q2 2024, revenue from mid-to-high-end and ordinary liquor decreased by 19.3% and 47.3% respectively, with mid-to-high-end liquor accounting for 85.7% of total liquor revenue, an increase of 6.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Regionally, revenue from domestic and foreign liquor in Q2 2024 fell by 18.2% and 28.4% respectively, with domestic revenue contributing significantly to overall sales [1] Profitability Insights - The gross margin in Q2 2024 decreased by 10.95 percentage points to 60.93%, primarily due to a shift in product mix [1] - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was 3.64%, down 19.7 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by increased sales and management expenses [1] Financial Forecast - The company expects to achieve total revenues of 6.659 billion yuan, 7.006 billion yuan, and 7.719 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year changes of -6.0%, +5.2%, and +10.2% [2][3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.205 billion yuan, 1.315 billion yuan, and 1.517 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting year-on-year changes of -31.9%, +9.1%, and +15.4% [2][3]

2024 年 08 月 22 日 公司点评 增持/下调 舍得酒业(600702) 目标价: 61.12 昨收盘:45.50 舍得酒业：Q2 业绩仍有承压，主动调整蓄力 走势比较 (70%) (52%) (34%) (16%) 2% 20% 23/8/2223/11/324/1/1524/3/2824/6/924/8/21 舍得酒业 沪深300 股票数据 总股本/流通(亿股) 3.33/3.33 总市值/流通(亿元) 151.59/151.59 12 个月内最高/最低价 (元) 151.2/45.04 相关研究报告 <<舍得酒业：短期盈利承压，继续夯 实进取>>--2024-04-29 <<全年业绩符合预期，战略清晰具备 长期潜力>>--2024-03-26 <<舍得酒业：业绩符合预期，坚持良 性发展主动控速>>--2023-10-26 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 证券分析师：肖依琳 电话： E-MAIL：xiaoyl@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523100003 事件：公司发布 2024 年半年度报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.271 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 1.165 billion yuan, down 22.75%, and net profit was 41 million yuan, down 88.29% year-on-year. The company has adopted a strategy of controlling volume and stabilizing prices to assist in channel destocking and relieve pressure [1][2] - The company’s mid-to-high-end and regular liquor segments achieved revenues of 2.601 billion yuan and 384 million yuan respectively in H1 2024, with year-on-year declines of 5.61% and 25.18%. In Q2 2024, these segments generated revenues of 876 million yuan and 146 million yuan, down 19.43% and 47.35% respectively. The company is focusing on banquet scenarios, with significant growth in the number of banquets for its key products [1][2] - The company’s revenue from external and internal markets in H1 2024 was 2.076 billion yuan and 910 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 11.16% and 2.46%. In Q2 2024, revenues from these markets were 655 million yuan and 267 million yuan, down 28.46% and 18.25% respectively. The company is increasingly focusing on high-occupancy base markets [1][2] Financial Performance - The company’s gross margin and net margin for Q2 2024 were 60.9% and 3.5%, down 10.9 and 19.7 percentage points year-on-year. The overall expense ratio increased by 14.1%, with sales expenses rising by 38% primarily due to increased employee compensation [2][6] - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.237 billion yuan, 1.286 billion yuan, and 1.505 billion yuan respectively, with a maintained "Buy" rating despite short-term performance pressures [2][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 3.271 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.28%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 591 million yuan, down 35.73% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2024, total revenue was 1.165 billion yuan, a decline of 22.61% year-on-year, with a net profit of 41 million yuan, down 88.4% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively controlling volume and stabilizing prices, leading to a temporary decline in revenue [2] - The sales revenue for mid-to-high-end liquor and ordinary liquor in Q2 2024 was 876 million yuan and 146 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -5.66% and -25.19% [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its market presence in the banquet sector, anticipating that mass consumption will continue to support growth in the second half of the year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s gross profit margin in Q2 2024 was 60.93%, a decrease of 10.95 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on traditional products and an increase in lower-margin product sales [2] - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was 3.48%, a significant drop of 19.74 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Cash flow from operating activities was negative 129 million yuan in Q2 2024, compared to positive 412 million yuan in Q2 2023 [2] Market Strategy - The company has adjusted its sales strategy to manage channel pressures, focusing on improving sales dynamics and controlling cash flow and delivery schedules [2] - The company aims to strengthen its market operations in Sichuan and enhance its banquet market strategy to capture market share [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 1.26 billion yuan, 1.43 billion yuan, and 1.63 billion yuan, representing reductions of 35%, 39%, and 42% from previous estimates [2] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 12, 11, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]