证券代码：600801 证券简称：华新水泥 公告编号：2025-021 华新水泥股份有限公司 2025 年半年度业绩预增公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 2025 年 1 月 1 日至 2025 年 6 月 30 日。 （二）业绩预告情况 经公司财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的 净利润为 109,583.00 万元至 113,236.00 万元，与上年同期相比，将增加 36,527.66 万元至 40,180.66 万元，同比增加 50%到 55%。 经华新水泥股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）财务部门初步测算， 预 计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为 109,583.00 万 元至 113,236.00 万元，与上年同期相比，将增加 36,527.66 万元至 40,180.66 万元，同比增加 50%到 55%。 预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净 利润为 10 ...

Group 1: Special Electronic Fabrics - The demand for M8/M9 and second-generation/Q fabrics is expected to increase significantly, with high barriers to entry and few players in the market, leading to a prolonged period of prosperity [1] - The supply-demand dynamics for first-generation fabrics are anticipated to be better than market expectations [1] - Low CTE electronic fabrics continue to face shortages, with recommendations for Zhongcai Technology and attention to Honghe Technology [1] Group 2: Cement Industry - Cement stock configurations are becoming increasingly cost-effective, with negative factors already fully priced in; the industry is expected to maintain a bottom line [1] - Recommendations include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with attention to China National Building Material and other companies [1][4] - National cement market prices have shown a slight decline of 0.4%, with regional price drops of 10-20 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Glass Fiber Industry - The industry is entering a new normal, with stable prices for electronic yarn and a gradual recovery in profitability [5] - The main transaction price for 2400tex non-alkali yarn is between 3300-3700 yuan/ton, while electronic yarn prices remain stable at 8800-9200 yuan/ton [5] - Recommendations include leading companies such as China Jushi, Zhongcai Technology, and Changhai Co., with attention to International Composite Materials and Shandong Glass Fiber [5] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Glass - The upgrade of borosilicate glass is accelerating, with a favorable competitive landscape for molded bottles [6] - Recommendations focus on Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass, which is expected to see significant growth due to product upgrades and cost reductions [6] Group 5: Safety Building Materials - Qingniao Fire Protection is highlighted as a leading player with strong growth potential due to its comprehensive competitive advantages [10] - Zhenan Technology is expected to benefit from legislation opening up a significant market space for building isolation [10] - Zhizhi New Materials is positioned to increase its market share domestically and expand overseas, particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to lead to significant improvements in the fundamentals of the real estate chain. Recommended stocks in the consumer building materials sector include Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Jianlang Hardware. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a special action plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry, aiming to control cement clinker capacity at around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, with a target of reducing comprehensive energy consumption per unit product by 3.7% compared to 2020 [3] - The "equal tariff" policy is expected to benefit fiberglass leaders with overseas production bases, allowing them to raise prices and consolidate profitability [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index rose by 3.34% in the week from July 7 to July 11, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.52 percentage points. Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index increased by 6.41%, while the construction materials index rose by 6.60%, indicating a slight outperformance of 0.18 percentage points [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index increased by 15.62%, and the construction materials index rose by 15.80%, also showing a slight outperformance of 0.18 percentage points [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 11, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 282.89 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.48% month-on-month. The clinker inventory ratio was 65.89%, down 2.29 percentage points [6][23][24] - The price of cement varied by region, with notable declines in Northeast (-4.76%), North China (-2.33%), East China (-2.98%), South China (-5.74%), Central China (-3.41%), and Southwest (-4.93%) regions [23][29] Glass Sector - The average price of float glass as of July 11, 2025, was 1205.63 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.17%. The average price of photovoltaic glass remained stable at 116.02 CNY/weight box [6][71][78] - The inventory of float glass decreased by 970,000 weight boxes nationwide, a decline of 1.66% [73][74] Fiberglass Sector - The price of non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3400 to 4100 CNY/ton, with flexible pricing based on regional differences [6] Consumer Building Materials - As of July 11, 2025, the price of crude oil was 70.63 USD/barrel, down 0.39% week-on-week. The price of asphalt was 4570 CNY/ton, up 1.11% week-on-week [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses three potential paths for the construction materials industry to counteract "involution," aiming to alleviate deflation and stabilize employment. These paths include limiting capital expenditure, clearing existing production capacity, and constraining current output [6][7] - The report highlights the ongoing decline in cement prices and a decrease in glass inventory, indicating a weak demand environment [8] - Recommendations include focusing on special glass fiber and the African supply chain, with leading companies in existing markets being the main investment focus for the year [9] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report emphasizes the need for the construction materials industry to adapt to economic pressures through various strategies to manage supply and demand effectively [6][7] Market Performance - Cement prices have continued to decline, with the national average price dropping by 1.2% due to weak market demand and production issues [8][25] - The average cement price is reported at 353.39 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 41.13% [25] Recommendations - Special glass fiber is highlighted as a key area for investment, particularly in companies like China National Materials Technology, which is positioned to benefit from domestic substitution trends [9] - The African supply chain is also recommended, with companies like Keda Manufacturing showing strong performance in niche markets [9] Demand Trends - The report notes a significant decline in real estate transaction volumes, with a 17% year-on-year decrease in new home sales across 30 major cities [8] - The construction materials sector is expected to see a shift towards existing inventory products, driven by improved demand in the second-hand housing market and urban renovation policies [9]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the building materials industry is expected to return to historical high demand levels due to the emergence of stock demand, with a significant shift towards consumption characteristics of building materials [4][7][22] - The residential renovation demand currently accounts for nearly 50% and is projected to reach around 70% by 2030, indicating a qualitative change in consumption demand for building materials [7][22][23] - The report highlights the potential of African markets for capacity expansion, identifying undervalued local leaders such as Keda Manufacturing, Huaxin Cement, and Western Cement [4][9][10] Group 2: Stock Chain Insights - The stock category is seen as a cyclical demand segment that can emerge positively, with a significant supply exit in consumer building materials due to the deep adjustment in the real estate sector [7][47] - The report predicts that by 2024, production levels for various building materials will be at approximately 90% for plastic pipes, 82% for gypsum board, and 62% for waterproofing materials compared to their peak levels [7][47][50] - The report suggests that the supply exit in consumer building materials is thorough, driven by the expansion of leading enterprises' advantages and changes in demand structure [7][47][50] Group 3: African Chain Insights - Africa is identified as a fertile ground for the export of building materials, driven by population growth and urbanization, with local leaders like Keda Manufacturing benefiting from market share advantages [9][10] - Keda Manufacturing holds a 20% market share in the ceramic tile market in Central Africa, with a net profit margin recovering to over 20% in Q1 2025 [9][10] Group 4: Domestic Substitution Chain Insights - The report highlights the opportunities for domestic substitution in building materials, particularly in specialty fiberglass and industrial coatings, driven by the transformation goals of becoming a manufacturing powerhouse [10][10] - Key players in specialty fiberglass, such as China National Building Material, are expected to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power [10][10]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.08 海外水泥的纸黄金与真功夫 [Table_Industry] 水泥制造业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——海外水泥专题 | [table_Authors] 鲍雁辛(分析师) | 杨冬庭(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880513070005 | S0880522080004 | 本报告导读： 2021-24 年是中国水泥企业出海的提速期，而 2025 年后或迎来水泥企业出海的分化 期，企业机制决定了扩产速度，但内功决定海外盈利兑现的质量。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 [Table_Summary] 维持水泥行业"增持"评级：2021-24 年国内水泥海外产能规模显著 扩张，2023-24 年部分企业的海外水泥业务已经成为其盈利构成的 重要部分。但在海外水泥规模"提速"的同时，我们观察到市场对 于高价海外水泥的"纸面黄金"能否真正兑现成盈利能力仍有分歧。 我们认为， ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The cement industry is expected to benefit from the improvement in infrastructure and real estate demand, with a long-term view of continuous optimization in supply structure. Recommended companies include Shengfeng Cement, Tapai Group, Huaxin Cement, Western Cement, and Tibet Tianlu [20][21] - The report highlights a significant drop in the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.92% [2][15] - The cement price has recently hit a low, with the average price in East China down by 17 CNY/ton year-on-year, indicating potential for price rebound due to the implementation of price coordination mechanisms [3][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.54%, while the construction materials sector (CITIC) increased by 3.63%. Notable stock performances include Yamaton (+34.9%), Zhongcai Technology (+20.7%), and Kaisheng New Energy (+19.6%) [12][14] Recent Tracking of Key Sub-sectors - Cement: The national cement market price fell by 1.3% week-on-week, with average shipment rates around 42% due to weak demand [17] - Glass: The photovoltaic glass market saw a general decline in new orders, with prices for 2.0mm coated panels down by 2.27% [18] - Fiberglass: The market for non-alkali yarn remains stable, with prices holding steady at around 3669 CNY/ton [19] Long-term Value of Traditional Building Materials - The report emphasizes that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials like carbon fiber are expected to see sustained growth due to high downstream demand and domestic substitution opportunities [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the building materials industry, particularly highlighting the recovery potential in the consumption building materials sector and the cement industry [2][4]. Core Insights - The building materials industry has seen a resurgence in attention since July 1, driven by expectations of supply-side improvements and demand upgrades, particularly in the cement and glass sectors [2][4]. - The cement industry is expected to benefit from policies aimed at limiting overproduction, while the glass industry is experiencing changes due to reductions in production capacity and demand fluctuations [2][9]. - The waterproofing sector has seen unprecedented price increases among leading companies, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][5]. - AI demand is reshaping market expectations, particularly in the low dielectric cloth segment, which is expected to see continued product premium during the upgrade process [3][26]. Summary by Sections Consumption Building Materials - The logic of improving market dynamics is beginning to materialize, with price communication among companies becoming more favorable [5]. - The waterproofing industry has seen a significant price increase among leading firms, indicating a recovery in profitability [5][6]. - The report anticipates that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth in 2025, driven by cost reductions and stabilized pricing [5]. Cement - The cement industry is experiencing a "reverse involution" with policies aimed at limiting overproduction, which is expected to stabilize prices [9][11]. - Demand remains weak, with a notable decline in production and sales, but the industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect [11][12]. - The report likens the supply-demand dynamics in the cement industry to a "tortoise and hare" race, where supply adjustments may lead to improved profitability despite weak demand [12][14]. Glass - The float glass market is currently facing pressure with prices remaining low and demand weak, leading to cash flow challenges for many companies [17][24]. - The report highlights that the photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss zone, prompting accelerated cold repairs among manufacturers [24][25]. - The automotive glass segment is expected to maintain stable profitability due to product structure improvements and cost optimization [21][22]. Fiberglass - The demand for low dielectric cloth is expected to increase due to the AI industry's growth, with companies positioned well for product upgrades [26][27]. - The report notes that mainstream electronic cloth products are performing steadily, with potential price increases anticipated in the future [27][28]. Carbon Fiber - The wind power sector is seeing a recovery in demand, which is expected to lead to improved profitability in Q2 [32].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The construction materials industry has seen a significant increase in attention since July 1, driven by unexpected changes on the supply side and a focus on demand upgrades for the end of 2024 [1][2] - The cement industry is experiencing a "de-involution" policy expectation, with a focus on limiting overproduction and improving regulatory oversight [2][10] - The demand side is shifting, with AI-related demand expected to accelerate, positively impacting various segments of the industry [3][27] Group 2: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector is witnessing a rare price increase in the waterproofing industry, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [4][5] - Companies like Sanke Tree and Dongfang Yuhong are showing improved profitability through cost reduction and price increases, validating earlier industry reports [4][5] - The outlook for 2025 suggests that profitability recovery will outpace revenue growth, with expectations of reduced price competition and improved cost management [4][5] Group 3: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply-side adjustments take effect, with a focus on limiting production and improving cash flow [10][12] - Major companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are expected to maintain strong cash flow and dividend policies, indicating long-term investment value [11][16][17] - The industry's overall profitability is anticipated to improve as demand stabilizes and production constraints are implemented [12][15] Group 4: Glass Industry - The float glass market is experiencing price fluctuations due to supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of cash losses for many companies [19][20] - Companies like Xinyi Glass and Qibin Group are facing challenges but are expected to maintain stable profitability in their automotive glass segments [21][22] - The photovoltaic glass sector is entering a cash loss phase, prompting accelerated cold repairs and production adjustments [25][26] Group 5: Fiber Industry - The fiberglass sector is seeing stable demand for mainstream electronic yarns, with a focus on high-end products like low-dielectric cloth [27][28] - Companies like China Jushi are expanding production capacity overseas to mitigate trade risks and maintain growth [29][30] - The carbon fiber market is showing signs of recovery in wind power demand, with expectations of improved profitability in Q2 [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The ongoing "anti-involution" initiative is expected to improve the fundamentals of the construction materials industry, with a focus on enhancing product quality and phasing out outdated production capacity [3] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including SanKeTree, Dongfang Yuhong, Weixing New Materials, and Jianlang Hardware, as well as beneficiaries like Beixin Building Materials [3] - The cement sector is projected to benefit from energy-saving and carbon reduction initiatives, with a target to control cement clinker capacity to around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025 [3] Market Performance - The construction materials index increased by 3.96% in the week from June 30 to July 4, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.42 percentage points [4][13] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index rose by 8.01%, while the construction materials index only increased by 2.47%, indicating a lag of 5.55 percentage points [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has risen by 16.06%, compared to an 11.69% increase in the construction materials index, resulting in a 4.38 percentage point underperformance [4][13] Cement Sector - As of July 4, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement was 293.11 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.97% decrease from the previous period [6][24] - The clinker inventory ratio nationwide was 68.18%, down by 1.18 percentage points [6][25] - Regional price variations were noted, with the Northeast region remaining stable, while other regions like North China and Southwest saw declines of 4.13% and 6.58%, respectively [6][24] Glass Sector - The average price of float glass was 1201.35 RMB/ton as of July 4, 2025, showing a slight increase of 0.07% [6][74] - The inventory of float glass decreased by 1.17%, with a total of 58.31 million weight boxes reported [6][76] - The price of photovoltaic glass fell by 3.88%, with an average price of 116.02 RMB/weight box [6][81] Fiberglass Sector - The price of non-alkali 2400tex direct yarn ranged from 3400 to 4100 RMB/ton, with variations based on specific product types [6] - The fiberglass sector is expected to benefit from favorable tariffs for companies with overseas production bases [3] Consumer Building Materials - The report indicates that raw material prices for consumer building materials have remained relatively stable with slight fluctuations [6][5]