出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 从上市公司层面来看，2024年酒企收入增速大幅放缓，收入下滑酒企数量从上年的2家增至6家。酒鬼酒 和顺鑫农业已经连续大幅下滑两年。 3家酒企经营活动现金流净额转负 经营活动现金流是衡量上市公司核心盈利能力和财务健康度的关键指标，2024年3家酒企经营活动现金 流净额转负，分别为舍得酒业、酒鬼酒、金种子酒，比上年多了两家。 去年8家公司经营活动现金流净额同比增长，剔除皇台酒业之后，增速最快的是泸州老窖、山西汾酒、 口子窖。此外贵州茅台增长38.85%，也排在前列。 此外，伊力特、洋河股份、顺鑫农业、舍得酒业、金种子酒、酒鬼酒在收入下滑的情况下，存货仍在增 长。 | | | 2024年上市白酒公司存货、现金 ...

出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 2024年，白酒行业进入深度调整！ "行业产销双线下滑、终端动销整体放缓、消费场景萎缩、消费信心不足，诸多产品价格不同程度倒 挂，"茅台集团党委副书记、总经理王莉2024年中曾对白酒行业发展趋势作出过这样的判断。 在这种背景下，渠道库存问题凸显，头部酒企也频频通过停货稳定价格体系。白酒企业分化进一步加 剧，头部酒企仍能维持稳健增长，中小酒企则开始面对压力。 2023年山西汾酒、泸州老窖双双进入300亿元门槛，使得300亿阵营从3家扩容到5家，不过2024年洋河股 份收入下滑12.83%至288.76亿元，掉出了300亿元阵营。 在这一轮白酒行业深度调整中，洋河股份是"掉队"酒企之一。2019年洋河的渠道库存问题就开始暴露， 公司祭出"主动控货"的措施，导致收入骤降。2021年到2023年一度有所恢复，2024年开始又陷入下滑。 从营业收入来看，2024年19家上市白酒公司（剔除*ST岩石（维权））总共实现营业收入4419.42亿元， 相比2023年增长7.67%，收入增速在明显放缓。 2024年19家上市白酒公司总收入增长率中位数为3.69%，上一年则达到 ...

食品饮料行业 2025 年 5 月 9 日 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：黄冬祎 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523020001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： huangdongyi@dgzq.com.cn 超配 （维持） 内部分化，复苏在途 食品饮料行业 2024 年与 2025 年一季度业绩综述 食品饮料（申万）指数走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，同花顺 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 业 绩 综 述 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 食品饮料行业2024年业绩增速放缓，2025Q1业绩微增。2024年SW食品饮料 行业实现营业总收入10915.80亿元，同比增长3.92%，增速同比下降3.95个 百分点；实现归母净利润2171.12亿元，同比增长5.51%，增速同比下降 11.74个百分点。今年一季度，食品饮料行业整体 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company achieved a total operating revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 12.246 billion yuan, also reflecting a 17.24% increase year-on-year [2][7] - In Q4 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 4.653 billion yuan, down 10.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 893 million yuan, down 11.32% year-on-year [2][7] - For Q1 2025, the operating revenue was 16.523 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, and the net profit was 6.648 billion yuan, up 6.15% year-on-year [2][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The total operating revenue for 2024 was 36.011 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12.79%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.243 billion yuan, reflecting a 17.29% increase year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 12.246 billion yuan, up 17.24% year-on-year [2][7] - In Q4 2024, the operating revenue was 4.653 billion yuan, down 10.24% year-on-year, with a net profit of 893 million yuan, down 11.32% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, the operating revenue was 16.523 billion yuan, up 7.72% year-on-year, and the net profit was 6.648 billion yuan, up 6.15% year-on-year [2][7] Market Dynamics - The company is steadily advancing its national expansion, establishing a solid market foundation in the surrounding Shanxi region. The long-term development logic of the company is expected to continue as industry demand gradually recovers [12][12] - The company’s product lines, including the flagship "Glass Fen" and "Qinghua 20," are positioned to benefit from changing consumer preferences, with the latter establishing an advantage in the sub-premium segment [12][12] Profitability - The company's net profit margin improved by 1.31 percentage points to 34% in 2024, with a gross margin increase of 0.9 percentage points to 76.2%. The operating expense ratio rose by 0.66 percentage points to 14.75% [12][12] - The cash flow from sales of goods and services reached 36.609 billion yuan in 2024, up 21.5% year-on-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [12][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, signs of recovery are emerging for quality companies in the food and beverage sector, with the sector's configuration value becoming more prominent [3] - The food and beverage sector's revenue growth for 2024 is projected at +4.4%, with profit growth at +5.5%. In Q1 2025, revenue is expected to grow by +4.6%, while net profit shows a modest increase of +0.3% [4][12] - The overall consumption demand in 2024 is weak, particularly in Q2 and Q3, but some sub-industries are stabilizing in Q4 2024 due to proactive policies [3][12] Summary by Relevant Sections Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector shows steady performance, with revenue growth of +7.3% in 2024 and +1.7% in Q1 2025, while net profit growth is +7.4% and +2.3% respectively [14][23] - In Q1 2025, the liquor sector's net profit growth is the lowest since the recovery in 2015, with only a few companies like Moutai and Wuliangye achieving positive growth [3][34] Consumer Goods - The consumer goods sector, including snacks, beverages, and condiments, has shown better performance, with snacks growing by +65.2% and beverages by +12.6% in 2024 [14][12] - The beverage sector demonstrates strong demand resilience, particularly in functional and health-oriented categories [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in sectors benefiting from domestic demand policies, such as liquor, beer, and dairy products, recommending companies like Moutai, Wuliangye, and CR Beer [3] - It emphasizes selecting individual stocks with strong performance certainty, such as Dongpeng Beverage and Haitian Flavoring [3] Valuation Performance - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a low point, with the liquor sector's price-to-earnings ratio below historical averages since 2011 [15][18]

金十图示：2025年05月09日（周五）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：银行、航运港口、电力等板块走高，半导体、 消费电子、证券等板块走低 +0.16(+2.19%) +0.05(+0.96%) +0.05(+1.29%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 中国人保 0 3294.69亿市值 3062.15亿市值 9452.93亿市值 4.22亿成交额 8.83亿成交额 2.68亿成交额 7.45 31.83 51.91 +0.09(+1.22%) +0.04(+0.13%) -0.05(-0.10%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 山西汾酒 五粮液 19941.76亿市值 2477.99亿市值 5109.36亿市值 19.69亿成交额 2.57亿成交额 7.74亿成交额 1587.47 131.63 203.12 +9.28(+0.59%) -1.12(-0.55%) -0.17(-0.13%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2911.18亿市值 2351.60亿市值 3349.60亿市值 10.58亿成交额 11.71亿成交额 8.88亿成交额 697.36 144.11 440.23 -8 ...

行业承压背景下，酒企调整频繁、白酒新格局的形成亦按下了"加速键"。 近日，随着山西汾酒财报的发布，白酒行业多年的"高热话题"——"白酒前三甲之争"结果似乎变得明朗。此前"茅五洋"、"茅五泸"的争论似乎有 了不一样的答案。 以2024年财报数据为依据，国内白酒企业呈现出酱、浓、清三大香型代表企业贵州茅台（1708.99亿元）、五粮液（891.75亿元）、山西汾酒 （360.11亿元）盘踞酒业"前三甲"的酒业格局。此外，泸州老窖营收311.96亿元，洋河股份营收为288.76亿元。 值得关注的是，在营收上位列"探花"的山西汾酒，其在2024年的净利（122.42亿元）逊于泸州老窖（134.72亿元），不过其净利增速实现双位数 增长，表现优于泸州老窖。 目前来看，由于不同酒企间营收数据有着较大差距、以及行业进入调整期业绩数据增速放缓等原因，酒业在经历"三甲之争"多年后，头部酒企格 局或在当下已被重塑。不过，"茅五汾"新格局稳定性如何呢？ 01 2025Q1： 不过，洋河股份业绩依然备受考验。其在2025年Q1营收为110.66亿元，同比下滑31.92%；净利为36.37亿元，同比下滑39.93%。 整个行业来看，2 ...

Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 36.011 billion and 12.243 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 17.29% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders were 16.523 billion and 6.648 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 7.72% and 6.15% [2] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the company's liquor revenue reached 35.875 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 0.93 percentage points to 76.30% [1] - The proportion of mid-to-high-end liquor revenue increased by 0.86 percentage points to 73.96%, with revenues of 26.532 billion and 9.342 billion yuan for mid-to-high-end and other liquors, respectively [1] - In Q1 2025, liquor revenue was 16.480 billion yuan, with revenue from Fenjiu and other liquors at 16.212 billion and 0.268 billion yuan, respectively [2] Market Dynamics - In 2024, revenue from provincial and out-of-province markets was 13.500 billion and 22.374 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% [1] - The number of distributors increased by 613 to 4,553, while the average scale per distributor decreased by 2.88% to 7.3657 million yuan [1] - In Q1 2025, provincial and out-of-province revenues were 6.083 billion and 10.396 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 7.18% [2] Profitability Analysis - In 2024, the gross margin and net profit margin were 76.20% and 34.00%, respectively, with increases of 0.9 and 1.3 percentage points [1] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin and net profit margin were 78.80% and 40.23%, with changes of +1.34 and -0.60 percentage points [2] - Operating cash flow increased by 68.47% year-on-year to 12.172 billion yuan in 2024, while in Q1 2025, it decreased by 0.21% to 7.027 billion yuan [1][2] Earnings Forecast - The company expects revenue growth of 8%, 9%, and 9% for 2025-2027, reaching 39 billion, 42.5 billion, and 46.3 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 6%, 9%, and 10% for the same period, reaching 13 billion, 14.1 billion, and 15.5 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The revised earnings forecast reflects a weaker consumption environment for liquor [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 360.11 billion yuan and net profit of 122.43 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79% and 17.29% respectively [1] - For 2025, the company is projected to generate revenue of 165.23 billion yuan and net profit of 66.48 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 7.72% and 6.15% respectively [1] - The company has seen a significant increase in high-priced liquor sales, with liquor revenue reaching 358.75 billion yuan in 2024, up 13% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved by 0.93 percentage points to 76.30% in 2024, with sales volume and price per ton increasing by 7.20% and 5.43% respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is forecasted to grow at rates of 8%, 9%, and 9% from 2025 to 2027, reaching 390 billion yuan, 425 billion yuan, and 463 billion yuan respectively [2] - The net profit is expected to grow by 6%, 9%, and 10% during the same period, reaching 130 billion yuan, 141 billion yuan, and 155 billion yuan respectively [2] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to increase from 16,891.10 million yuan in 2024 to 21,046.21 million yuan by 2027 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 10.04 yuan in 2024 to 12.71 yuan in 2027 [3] Market and Sales Insights - The company’s sales in the domestic market for 2025 are expected to be 60.83 billion yuan, while sales outside the province are projected at 103.96 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 7.18% respectively [1] - The number of distributors increased by 743 to a total of 4,461, although the average scale per distributor decreased by 7.88% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2025 is forecasted to be 78.80%, with a net profit margin of 40.23% [1]

出品｜搜狐财经 作者｜饶婷 编辑｜李文贤 2024年财报与2025年一季报悉数揭晓，白酒行业开启内卷突围战，酒企增速普遍放缓。 搜狐财经统计数据发现，2024年，21家白酒上市公司共创造营收4439.65亿元，同比增长7.63%；归母净利润（剔除牛栏山）为1680.78亿元，同比增长 7.01%。 尽管实现营利双增，但整体增速较2023年的双位数水平放缓，步入个位数增长区间。 与此同时，酒企普遍为守住市场份额仍在加码费用投放。2024年，21家白酒上市公司中，有12家酒企销售费用上涨。 熬过艰难的2024年，2025年酒企普遍不再要求高速增长，设定了相对"柔性"的经营规划。 搜狐酒业发展研究院专家肖竹青认为中国酒业已经进入缩量竞争的内卷时代，强者恒强，弱者更弱的趋势在提速。"一线名酒企业目前积极推动渠道下 沉，依托品牌势能降维打击区域酒厂生存空间。" "2025年，白酒价格的泡沫还将进一步消融"，搜狐酒业发展研究院专家欧阳千里判断，这将加剧竞争力不强的酒企、酒商的退出，形成头部引领的新格 局。 2024年5家酒企营利双位数增长，专家称区域酒企渠道深耕破局 | 搜狐 酒业 | | | 白酒上市公司2024年业绩 ...