Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, with a target price of 350 CNY [5][21]. Core Views - The report addresses market concerns regarding the company's product structure and inventory performance, asserting that the impact on profit growth is limited due to a focus on mid-tier products and a normal repayment ratio of approximately 20% in Q2 [1][2]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of around 20% for the year, with a strong emphasis on maintaining channel profits and enhancing operational efficiency through digital transformation initiatives [1][2]. - The product structure is seen as advantageous in the current demand environment, with a focus on high-end products and strategic adjustments to meet consumer trends [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 31,928 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 10,438 million CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 28.9% [3][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is forecasted at 10.71 CNY, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 [3][14]. Market Dynamics - The company has experienced a 30% decline in stock price since May, attributed to industry-wide price drops and concerns over Q2 performance. However, the report suggests that the overall market conditions remain stable, with a healthy inventory level and consistent pricing across product lines [1][2]. - The company is actively working to improve channel communication and efficiency, anticipating a significant improvement in the third quarter [1][2]. Strategic Initiatives - The "Fenxiang Liuyu" channel reform is a key focus for the company, aimed at enhancing channel profitability and operational efficiency. The company plans to hold meetings with distributors to strengthen relationships and improve execution [1][2]. - The management is committed to a long-term strategy that prioritizes market health while gradually increasing market share, particularly in the southern regions [1][2].

证 券 研 究 报 告 山西汾酒（600809）跟踪分析报告 强推（维持） 回应分歧，景气延续 目标价：350 元 当前价：181.00 元 ❖ 事项：5 月以来公司股价回调逾 30%，一是行业层面茅台批价下跌，叠加部分 区域反馈二季度宴席场景高基数下表现偏淡，行业景气度回落预期转弱。二是 公司层面，市场对公司 Q2 产品结构、库存表现、汾享礼遇推进效果以及全年 业绩等方面存在分歧和疑虑，我们进行各方交流，核心观点如下： ❖ 分歧一：短期市场担心 Q2 产品结构下移影响利润增速，实际 Q2 更多是腰部 产品放量加强，对利润率影响有限。公司回应全年目标和结构策略不变，二季 度回款比例约 20%保持正常，结构上青花系列 Q1 节奏偏快增速约 35%+，其 中青 20 增速约 40%，二季度略放缓。玻汾则因一季度进度慢于全年，二季度 节奏加快，但腰部产品尤其是老白汾二季度增速更为明显（主要系公司 6 月对 腰部产品提价发力所致），评估对盈利水平影响不大。此外考虑二季度淡季扎 实做市场下费投略高于往年，上半年利润增速有望高于收入约 5%-10%。 ❖ 分歧二：中期市场担心汾享礼遇渠道改革推进磨合过程中会影响渠道利润和 ...

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：临 2024-017 联系地址：山西省汾阳市杏花村镇 因工作调整原因，王普向先生不再担任公司证券事务代表职务， 公司及公司董事会对王普向先生任职证券事务代表期间为公司所做 出的贡献表示衷心感谢。 公司于2024年7月15日召开第八届董事会第五十四次会议，审议 通过了《关于聘任公司证券事务代表的议案》，同意聘任张弛先生 （简历附后）担任公司证券事务代表，协助董事会秘书开展工作。 张弛先生已取得上海证券交易所颁发的董事会秘书任职资格证 书，具备担任证券事务代表所需的专业知识、工作经验和相关素养， 其任职资格符合《中华人民共和国公司法》《上海证券交易所股票 上市规则》等相关法律法规和规范性文件的规定。截至本公告披露 日，张弛先生未持有公司股份，与公司或控股股东及实际控制人不 存在关联关系，与公司其他董事、监事、高级管理人员不存在关联 关系，未受过中国证券监督管理委员会及其他相关部门的处罚或上 海证券交易所的惩戒。 证券事务代表联系方式如下： 电话：0358-7329809 电子邮箱：zhang.c@fenjiu.com.cn 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 关于变 ...

证券代码：600809 证券简称：山西汾酒 公告编号：2024-016 山西杏花村汾酒厂股份有限公司 2023 年年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗 漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 每股分配比例 A 股每股现金红利 4.37 元 相关日期 | 股份类别 | 股权登记日 | 最后交易日 | 除权（息）日 | 现金红利发放日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Ａ股 | 2024/7/4 | － | 2024/7/5 | 2024/7/5 | 差异化分红送转： 否 一、 通过分配方案的股东大会届次和日期 本次利润分配方案经公司 2024 年 5 月 17 日的 2023 年年度股东大会审议通过。 二、 分配方案 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分 公司（以下简称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3. 分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本1,219,964,222股为基数，每股派发现金红利4.37 元（含税） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu with a target price of 325.50 CNY, unchanged from the previous forecast [2][11]. Core Views - The growth tools for Shanxi Fenjiu are deemed sufficient, and the company's growth logic remains intact. The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are 11.04 CNY, 13.70 CNY, and 16.72 CNY respectively [7][11]. - The second quarter of 2024 is identified as a turning point for the industry, with Shanxi Fenjiu maintaining a good balance between growth and stability. The company is expected to continue enhancing its cost management and channel strategies [12][13]. - The report highlights a transformation in the growth logic of Shanxi Fenjiu, shifting from external to internal growth drivers, which enhances its counter-cyclical capabilities [13][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - The report reiterates the "Accumulate" rating and target price of 325.50 CNY, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential [11]. 2. Industry Turning Point and Growth Tools - The second quarter of 2024 is seen as a critical period for the industry, with Shanxi Fenjiu's sales performance aligning with expectations. The company is focusing on maintaining a healthy inventory and enhancing its product structure [12]. 3. Transformation of Growth Logic - The report notes that Shanxi Fenjiu has undergone a fundamental change in its operational and marketing strategies, transitioning to a market-oriented approach that strengthens its competitive and incentive structures [13]. 4. Market Share Logic - The report suggests that Shanxi Fenjiu is well-positioned to reshape the industry landscape, leveraging its brand and product advantages to enhance market share and influence in the high-end segment [14].

Summary of Conference Call Company or Industry Involved - The conference call appears to be related to a company or industry involved in a deep report analysis, possibly in the financial or investment sector, but specific details are not provided in the content [1] Core Points and Arguments - The call welcomes participants and indicates a focus on a deep report analysis, suggesting a detailed examination of growth dynamics and potential conflicts within the industry [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of "elite status" implies that the company or industry is currently performing well or is in a strong position, although specific metrics or data are not provided [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [2][3][94]. Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu has significant growth potential as it transitions from a revenue scale of 100 billion to 300 billion, with a faster pace than other liquor companies. The company is expected to maintain its growth momentum without significant deceleration in the next two years [1][10][12]. - The company is undergoing comprehensive reforms to enhance its organizational structure and channel management, which are crucial for product upgrades and sustainable growth [2][40][98]. - The growth strategy focuses on building a solid foundation in the surrounding Shanxi region while expanding into multiple price segments, with a particular emphasis on the Qinghua 20 and Laobai Fen products [2][61][64]. Summary by Sections Horizontal Comparison - Historical analysis shows that liquor companies typically face challenges after surpassing 300 billion in revenue. However, Shanxi Fenjiu's rapid growth and proactive reforms position it favorably compared to peers like Moutai and Wuliangye [1][12][18]. - The company has successfully crossed the 300 billion revenue threshold faster than competitors, indicating a robust growth foundation [1][13][19]. Organizational Reforms - Shanxi Fenjiu is implementing a comprehensive reform strategy, including the establishment of new departments to enhance high-end product cultivation and channel reforms [2][40][41]. - The "Fen Enjoy Benefits" program is a key tool for channel reform, focusing on tiered management of distributors and terminals to improve efficiency [2][46][48]. Growth Logic - The company is building a strong market presence in the surrounding Shanxi region and expanding its product offerings across various price segments. The Qinghua 20 product is positioned for significant growth, supported by its competitive pricing and brand strength [2][61][64]. - The report anticipates that the Qinghua 20 will drive revenue growth, enabling the company to reach the 500 billion revenue mark [1][11][64]. Valuation Analysis and Investment Recommendations - The report projects revenue growth for Shanxi Fenjiu at 20.5% for 2024, with expected revenues of 384.7 billion, 454.1 billion, and 522.5 billion for 2024-2026 [2][80][81]. - The target price for the stock is set between 248.40 and 291.60 yuan, reflecting the company's growth potential and ongoing reforms [2][94][87].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [10]. Core Views - The company is focusing on product upgrades to strengthen its mid-tier offerings and is leveraging digitalization to drive channel transformation [1]. - The sales conference highlighted a price increase of 5 yuan per box for the entire series of Lao Bai Fen and the comprehensive upgrade of Qinghua 20, which includes a new five-in-one system [1][2]. - The company aims to enhance its market presence outside of Shanxi, with a reported revenue of 19.659 billion yuan from outside the province in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.84% [2]. - The Qinghua 20 upgrade features a new design and improved channel and pricing control through the integration of RFID technology [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 31.928 billion yuan in 2023 to 55.240 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 18.6% [1]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 10.438 billion yuan in 2023 to 19.469 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of about 21.5% [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline from 37.0% in 2023 to 31.5% in 2026 [1]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to rise from 8.56 yuan in 2023 to 15.96 yuan in 2026 [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [3] Core Views - Shanxi Fenjiu is expected to strengthen its mid-tier product offerings, particularly with the recent upgrades and price increases of its flagship products, which are anticipated to drive revenue growth [2][3] - The company is positioned to outperform its peers in terms of growth speed and quality, with a focus on enhancing its overall competitive capabilities [2] Summary by Sections Product Strategy - The recent dealer conference revealed the launch of upgraded products, including Qinghua 20 and upgraded Lao Bai Fenjiu, with a price increase of 5 yuan per bottle for the Lao Bai Fenjiu series [2] - The strategic shift since 2022 focuses on enhancing the mid-tier segment while maintaining strong performance in the premium segment [2] Sales Performance - The company expects revenue growth for the Lao Bai Fenjiu series to exceed the overall company growth rate, particularly in the second quarter following the price adjustments [2] - Qinghua 20 continues to show strong sales momentum, with expectations for it to maintain a growth rate above the company average [2] Financial Forecast - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 130.8 billion, 155.2 billion, and 182.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 10.7, 12.7, and 15.0 yuan [3] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 22, 19, and 16 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Market Position - The company has a solid foundation in its home market and is expanding its presence in surrounding provinces, with strong growth potential in southern markets like Jiangsu and Anhui [2] - The overall market share is expected to increase due to the company's brand and product advantages, alongside improved management and execution capabilities [2]

证券研究报告 | 2024年06月07日 山西汾酒（600809.SH） 优于大市 老白汾焕新上市，巩固市场发展基础  公司研究·公司快评  食品饮料·白酒Ⅱ  投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 张向伟 zhangxiangwei@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523090001 证券分析师： 李文华 021-60375461 liwenhua2@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070002 联系人： 张未艾 021-61761031 zhangweiai@guosen.com.cn 事项： 事件：2024年06月04日，以“深入践行汾酒复兴纲领、全面推动市场高质量发展”为主题的汾酒销售公 司经销商大会在云南昆明举行。 国信食饮观点：1）新版老白汾全面升级，青花20导入五码系统。2）数字化改造持续推进，文化重塑、 组织重塑、竞争力重塑或是核心。3）投资建议：山西汾酒步入高势能发展阶段，维持此前盈利预测，我 们预计公司2024-2026年实现营收384.7/451.7/519.3亿元，同比增长20.5%/17.4%/15.0%；预计实现归 母净利润131.2 ...