Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [53]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the focus on liquor sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, suggesting that consumer demand remains under pressure, particularly for high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai [4][48]. - The report indicates a structural opportunity in mass-market products, with varying performance across different sub-sectors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring demand and cost indicators in the beer sector and consumption recovery in the condiment sector [4][48]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From September 12 to September 25, 2025, the SW food and beverage industry index fell by 5.76%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 6.76 percentage points [11]. - All sub-sectors underperformed the CSI 300 index during this period, with the baking sector experiencing the largest decline at -7.80% [13][14]. - Approximately 7% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns, with notable gainers including Qianwei Yangchu (+21.90%) and Yangyuan Beverage (+16.80%) [15] . Industry Important Data Tracking Liquor Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of Feitian Moutai decreased to 1,765 RMB per bottle, while the price of Guojiao 1573 increased to 840 RMB per bottle [22]. Condiment Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the price of soybean meal was 2,988 RMB per ton, down 72 RMB from September 11, while the price of white sugar was 5,780 RMB per ton, down 110 RMB [25]. Beer Sector - As of September 25, 2025, the average price of barley was 2,230 RMB per ton, while the price of aluminum ingots was 20,710 RMB per ton, down 100 RMB [30]. Dairy Sector - The average price of fresh milk remained stable at 3.03 RMB per kilogram as of September 19, 2025 [37]. Meat Products Sector - The average wholesale price of pork was 19.44 RMB per kilogram as of September 25, 2025, down 0.49 RMB from September 11 [39]. Industry News - The report notes a slight decline in the national liquor price index in early September 2025, indicating ongoing market adjustments [41]. - The number of registered beer-related enterprises increased by 10.83% year-on-year from January to August 2025, reflecting a growing market [42]. Weekly Industry Perspective - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring liquor sales during the upcoming holidays and suggests focusing on high-certainty liquor brands and mass-market products that benefit from policy catalysts [48].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a decline on September 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.18% to 3846.33 points, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector closed at 2244.21 points, down 0.19%, with the stock of JiuGuiJiu leading the decline at 1.87% [1] - Major liquor companies saw the following closing prices and percentage changes: - Kweichow Moutai: 1434.79 CNY, down 0.29% - Wuliangye: 120.29 CNY, down 1.01% - Shanxi Fenjiu: 189.82 CNY, down 1.34% - Luzhou Laojiao: 127.04 CNY, down 1.87% - Yanghe Brewery: 67.94 CNY, down 0.60% [1] Research Insights - Huachuang Food and Beverage's report indicates that the liquor industry is undergoing a cyclical bottoming process in three phases: supply clearance, supply-demand rebalancing, and demand improvement [1] - The upcoming third-quarter reports may signal the first turning point in supply and demand, with expectations of "accelerated pressure relief in reports and marginal demand improvement," marking a potential first layout opportunity for the sector [1] - The focus for the next year will be on continuously sensing forward-looking signals and gradually confirming a positive cycle [1]

我国零售行业经历了传统零售、电商、新零售的发展过程，即时零售极大缩短履约时间、丰富消费者选 择。近年来我国即时零售规模迅速扩大，2025年外卖大战边际催化，行业有望在未来几年维持双位数增 长。具体到酒水领域，酒类即时零售最早发源于1919、酒小二等垂类平台，2015年前后加速，形成垂 类、平台型、仓店一体型、前置仓型4类渠道模式；与此同时酒企加大布局与合作，酒类即时零售渗透 率显著提升。 酒类即时零售的兴起主要有三方面原因 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近年来我国即时零售规模迅速扩大，2025年外卖大战边际催 化，行业有望在未来几年维持双位数增长。回顾历史，白酒周期更替通常伴随渠道变革，当前行业深度 调整，较弱的价格和动销、较高的库存冲击线下传统渠道利润和现金流，而线上渠道仍较为景气，拥抱 即时零售不失为一种应变方式。据美团闪购测算2027年我国酒类即时零售市场规模有望达1000亿元、复 合增速有望接近中双位数，白酒、啤酒等核心品类有望受益。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 即时零售：大盘景气，酒类积极参与 一是消费习惯改变，消费者愈发追求便捷，且临时需求激发后希望快速得到满足。二是契合性价比需 求，压缩流 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) announced a share reduction by its major shareholder, Huachuang Xinrui (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., which plans to reduce up to 16.20 million shares through block trading due to fund expiration and normal liquidation [1][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Reduction Details - Huachuang Xinrui currently holds 128 million shares, accounting for 10.50% of the total share capital, after acquiring shares in 2018 for 5.16 billion yuan [1]. - This is not the first reduction by Huachuang Xinrui; previous reductions occurred in September 2022 and February 2023, totaling 8.02 million shares, with profits of 1.492 billion yuan from these transactions [1][2]. Group 2: Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu has shown significant growth, with revenue increasing from 9.444 billion yuan in 2018 to 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, moving from the fifth to the third position in the industry [3]. - In a challenging year for the liquor industry, Shanxi Fenjiu was one of the six out of twenty A-share liquor companies to achieve growth in both revenue and net profit, reporting a revenue of 23.964 billion yuan (up 5.35%) and a net profit of 8.505 billion yuan (up 1.13%) in the first half of the year [5].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) announced a share reduction plan by its major shareholder, Huachuang Xinrui (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., intending to reduce up to 16.20 million shares through block trading due to fund expiration and normal liquidation [2][4]. Shareholder Reduction Details - Huachuang Xinrui currently holds 128 million shares, accounting for 10.50% of the total share capital, after acquiring shares in 2018 for 5.16 billion yuan [2]. - Previous reductions by Huachuang Xinrui occurred in September 2022 and February 2023, totaling 8.02 million shares, with profits of 1.492 billion yuan from these transactions [2][3]. Company Performance - Shanxi Fenjiu has shown significant growth, with revenue increasing from 9.444 billion yuan in 2018 to 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, ranking third in the industry [4]. - In a challenging market, the company reported a revenue of 23.964 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, and a net profit of 8.505 billion yuan, up 1.13% [4]. - Despite the overall industry downturn, Shanxi Fenjiu increased its marketing expenses by 19.1% to 2.382 billion yuan, contrasting with many competitors who reduced marketing efforts [4].

Core Viewpoint - The eighth "China's Four Famous Liquor Cup" men's basketball invitational tournament emphasizes collaboration and innovation among the four major liquor brands, aiming to foster a community for mutual development and promote the high-quality growth of the Chinese liquor industry [1][5][17]. Group 1: Event Overview - The tournament is hosted by Moutai Group, Fenjiu Group, Luzhou Laojiao, and Xifeng Group, with the theme "Upholding Tradition and Innovation to Brew a Better Future" [1]. - The opening ceremony featured notable leaders from the four liquor companies and local sports officials, highlighting the importance of the event [3]. - The tournament includes six high-level matches over three days, showcasing the competitive spirit and skills of the participating teams [12]. Group 2: Leadership Insights - Leaders from the four major liquor companies discussed the structural changes and opportunities in the Chinese liquor industry during a pre-event meeting [14]. - Moutai's chairman emphasized the importance of enhancing product quality and cultural heritage to promote the internationalization of Chinese liquor [15]. - Fenjiu's chairman highlighted the need for the industry to embrace youthfulness and technological innovation to adapt to changing consumer trends [15]. - Luzhou Laojiao's chairman called for collaboration to build a healthy market ecosystem and promote the unique stories of Chinese liquor [15]. - Xifeng's chairman stressed the importance of maintaining quality and exploring diverse styles of Chinese liquor while fostering a spirit of cooperation [15]. Group 3: Cultural Significance - The tournament, first held in 1987, aims to blend sportsmanship with industry spirit, creating a blueprint for collaborative development [17]. - The event serves as a platform for the four major liquor brands to strengthen their bonds and drive the industry forward through shared values and cooperation [17].

消息面上，据报道，9月25日，2025年全国国庆文化和旅游消费月主场活动在四川省成都市举办，正式 启动国庆文旅消费月，于9月下旬至10月下旬开展系列文旅消费活动，激发假日消费活力，满足人民美 好生活需要。 9月19日，2025年海口国庆中秋双节促消费活动新闻发布会举办。据悉，海口市将发放1000万元的旅游 消费券，单人"机票+酒店"最高可省1800元。 9月15日，酒鬼酒在投资者关系活动记录表中称，公司与胖东来合作的联名产品"酒鬼·自由爱"上市以来 获得了消费者的广泛认可，目前该产品正按照合作计划进行发货。 据21世纪经济报道9月12日报道，正当市场和行业关注旺季白酒消费能否如期回暖时，茅台再次向外界 释放积极信号。"从此次对三地市场调研情况和各方反馈数据来看，随着传统双节临近，8月环比6、7月 份，市场终端动销有所回暖，8月底以来至今终端动销环比增长显著，市场态势有望进一步向好。"这是 茅台管理层过去两周在全国多地调研后得出的判断。 国海证券表示，政策密集出台，有望扭转宏观经济预期并促进食品饮料板块估值和业绩双提升，目前板 块估值仍然较低，基于此我们维持食品饮料行业"推荐"评级。 9月25日，食品饮料ETF ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall market showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% to 3859.62 points, while the liquor sector experienced a decline, indicating mixed performance in the industry [1] Industry Summary - The liquor sector index closed at 2259.28 points, down by 0.45%, with 16 liquor stocks experiencing declines [1] - Key liquor companies reported the following stock prices: - Kweichow Moutai at 1441.03 CNY, down 0.07% - Wuliangye at 122.00 CNY, up 0.30% - Shanxi Fenjiu at 194.28 CNY, down 0.17% - Luzhou Laojiao at 130.50 CNY, down 1.07% - Yanghe Brewery at 68.76 CNY, down 0.51% [1] Company Insights - Tianfeng Securities noted that liquor companies have begun preparations for the upcoming double festival, although the overall consumption environment remains under pressure [1] - The report highlighted a slight downward trend in the short-term prices of core high-end liquor, suggesting that better value propositions may stimulate sales [1] - Future focus will be on the recovery of the banquet market during the double festival [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are expected to drive a peak in alcohol consumption, prompting regulatory actions to ensure product safety [1][3] - A joint inspection team was formed by the Salt Lake District Market Supervision Administration to conduct safety checks on alcoholic products in key retail locations, focusing on the safety of consumer products [1][3] - The inspection emphasized popular alcoholic beverages such as white wine, red wine, and beer, with a thorough examination of sourcing, quality, and labeling [3] Group 2 - Inspectors reviewed purchase ledgers and required documentation from retailers, specifically targeting well-known brands like "Fenjiu" and "Wuliangye" for authenticity verification [3] - Issues identified during inspections included incomplete purchase records and non-compliant labeling, leading to immediate corrective actions and follow-up checks to ensure compliance [3] - The administration plans to enhance market surveillance during the holiday period and maintain open channels for consumer complaints regarding counterfeit or expired products [3]

Market Overview - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.72% on September 24, with Luzhou Laojiao leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3853.64, up 0.83%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13356.14, up 1.8% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Luzhou Laojiao (code: 000568) closed at 131.91, down 0.53%, with a trading volume of 62,600 and a transaction value of 826 million [2] - Kweichow Moutai (code: 600519) closed at 1442.00, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 30,700 and a transaction value of 4.443 billion [2] - Yanghe Brewery (code: 002304) closed at 69.11, down 0.30%, with a trading volume of 31,300 and a transaction value of 217 million [2] - Wuliangye (code: 000858) closed at 122.37, up 0.15%, with a trading volume of 130,600 and a transaction value of 1.598 billion [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The liquor sector saw a net outflow of 394 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 93.998 million [2] - The table of capital flow indicates varying levels of net inflow and outflow among individual stocks, with some stocks like Jinhuijiu (code: 600809) showing a net inflow of 369.30 million from retail investors [3]