Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in the liquor sector, particularly led by Kweichow Moutai, which saw a 2.87% increase in the sector on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.38% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.24% [1] Group 2 - Kweichow Moutai (stock code: 600519) closed at 1426.00 CNY, up 3.54%, with a trading volume of 70,900 shares and a transaction value of 10.018 billion CNY [1] - Other notable stocks in the liquor sector included Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) with a 3.08% increase, closing at 176.99 CNY, and Wuliangye (000858) which rose by 1.85% to 107.90 CNY [1] - The liquor sector experienced a net inflow of 1.441 billion CNY from main funds, while retail funds saw a net outflow of 1.07 billion CNY [1][2]

来源：翠鸟资本 净值不上不下，反弹力度有限，持有人开始频繁问一个问题：白酒到底还行不行？ 在很多普通投资者的记忆里，白酒指数曾经是一条清晰而省心的赛道。不用选股，不用判断公司治理， 只要我国消费升级存在，白酒龙头就会走出趋势。 招商中证白酒指数LOF就是这一轮逻辑下的典型代表之一，但是，当时间拉长到最近几年，这种熟悉的 安全感正在被反复消耗。 站在今天回看这只产品的阶段性表现，它并不是突然失效，而是被完整地拖进了一个行业与估值同步消 化的周期里。 下跌时间长 从阶段性数据看，招商中证白酒指数基金A份额的表现给人的第一感受是：乏力。 截至2025年12月26日，产品近3个月下跌5.91%。近1年下跌11.27%，近2年下跌20.14%，近3年下跌 36.15%。 这组数据的特点很清晰：下跌时间长，反弹幅度弱。 即便在近6个月内实现0.72%的微弱正收益，也很难给投资者带来明显的信心修复。 但同时也要看到，这并不是一只出现极端回撤或结构性失控的产品，而是一种典型的行业横盘期指数表 现。 什么情况？ 这意味着可以得出一个非常直接的结论：招商中证白酒指数的表现，本质上就是几家核心白酒公司的加 权组合。 当茅台、五粮液 ...

Group 1 - The liquor sector experienced a significant rally at the beginning of trading, with notable increases in stock prices [1] - Yiyaton saw a rise of over 3%, while Kweichow Moutai increased by more than 2% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Yingjia Gongjiu, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye, also followed suit with price increases [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the recent slight rebound in the retail prices of China's top ten liquor products, indicating a stabilization after a period of decline [1][5]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten liquor products reached 9081 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan from the previous day, suggesting a potential market recovery [1][5]. - The market exhibited a trend of more price increases than decreases, with notable price rises for several products, including: - Qinghua Lang increased by 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [6]. - Guojiao 1573 rose by 4 yuan per bottle, marking its fifth consecutive day of price increases [6]. - Qinghua Fen 20 and Wuliangye Pu 58th generation both saw increases of 2 yuan per bottle [6]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ experienced a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [6]. - Conversely, some products saw price declines, with: - The price of the premium Moutai dropping by 8 yuan per bottle [6]. - Xijiu Junpin decreased by 5 yuan per bottle [6]. - Feitian Moutai fell by 3 yuan per bottle [6]. Data Collection Methodology - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring a comprehensive and objective representation of market prices [2][6]. Industry News - On January 4, Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. issued a warning regarding fraudulent recruitment information circulating online, falsely using the Moutai name and claiming direct sales at 1169 yuan, which the company has not authorized [2][6].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese liquor market, particularly the top ten baijiu products, has shown signs of price stabilization after a period of decline, with a slight rebound in retail prices observed on January 5 [1][5]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten baijiu products reached 9081 yuan, reflecting a minor increase of 3 yuan compared to the previous day, indicating a potential stabilization after hitting new lows [1][5]. - The market is experiencing a recovery pattern with more products increasing in price than decreasing. Notably, Qinghua Lang saw a significant increase of 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [6]. - Other products that increased in price include Guojiao 1573 (+4 yuan), Qinghua Fen 20 (+2 yuan), and Wuliangye Pu 58th generation (+2 yuan). Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a slight increase of 1 yuan [6][8]. - Conversely, the prices of some products have decreased, with the premium Moutai dropping by 8 yuan, Xijiu Junpin down by 5 yuan, and Feitian Moutai down by 3 yuan [6][8]. Data Collection Methodology - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. This aims to provide an objective and traceable representation of the market prices for well-known baijiu [2][6]. Industry News - On January 4, Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. issued a warning regarding false recruitment information circulating online, claiming to offer Moutai at 1169 yuan. The company clarified that it has not authorized any such offers and is cooperating with authorities to address the issue [2][6].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese liquor market, particularly the top ten baijiu products, has shown signs of price stabilization after a period of decline, with a slight rebound in retail prices observed on January 5 [1][5]. Price Trends - The overall retail price for the top ten baijiu products reached 9081 yuan, an increase of 3 yuan from the previous day, indicating a potential stabilization after hitting new lows [1][5]. - The market is experiencing a recovery pattern with more products increasing in price than decreasing. Notably, Qinghua Lang saw a significant increase of 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [6]. - Other products that increased in price include Guojiao 1573 (+4 yuan), Qinghua Fen 20 (+2 yuan), and Wuliangye Pu 58th generation (+2 yuan). Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ saw a minor increase of 1 yuan [6][8]. - Conversely, products that decreased in price include the premium Moutai, which fell by 8 yuan, Xijiu Junpin by 5 yuan, and Flying Moutai by 3 yuan [6][9]. Data Collection Methodology - The data for the "Liquor Price Reference" is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets. The aim is to provide objective and traceable data on the market prices of well-known baijiu [2][6]. Industry News - On January 4, Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. issued a warning regarding false recruitment information circulating online, claiming to offer Moutai at 1169 yuan. The company clarified that it has not authorized any such offers and is cooperating with authorities to address the issue [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese white liquor market has shown signs of stabilization with a slight rebound in retail prices after a period of decline, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment [1]. Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten white liquor products ended a continuous decline on January 5, with a total price of 9081 yuan for a bundled sale, reflecting a 3 yuan increase from the previous day [1]. - The market is experiencing a recovery pattern with more products increasing in price than decreasing, suggesting a structural rebound [1]. Notable Price Changes - Qinghua Lang saw a strong performance with a price increase of 10 yuan per bottle, leading the market [1]. - Guojiao 1573 has increased by 4 yuan per bottle, marking its fifth consecutive day of price increases [1]. - Other products with price increases include Qinghua Fen 20 and Wuliangye Pu 58, both up by 2 yuan per bottle, and Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ with a slight increase of 1 yuan per bottle [1][4]. - Conversely, the price of the premium Moutai has decreased significantly, with the boutique version down by 8 yuan, and the Flying Moutai down by 3 yuan per bottle [1][3].

Group 1 - The consumer market in China is viewed as one of the biggest investment opportunities by 2026, but there are differing opinions on where and how to invest [1] - Traditional consumption sectors like liquor, apparel, and beauty have faced challenges, yet some brands have managed to achieve stock price increases of 30% to 50% [2] - The complexity of the consumer market requires investors to connect macro trends with micro behaviors to identify structural opportunities [3] Group 2 - The "China Online Consumption Brand Index" (CBI) and the "Global Brand China Online 500" list reveal significant shifts in consumer preferences, with traditional liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye declining while newer brands like Pop Mart are rising [3][4] - The CBI index reflects the performance of brands based on real consumer behavior, including sales, price, search volume, and reputation [4] - The liquor industry is undergoing a transformation, with brands like Jian Nan Chun and Shanxi Fenjiu adapting to new consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics [6][7][13] Group 3 - The outdoor apparel market is shifting from niche enthusiasts to mainstream consumers, with brands like Berghaus gaining traction due to their stylish and affordable offerings [17] - Emerging brands in the cosmetics sector, such as Huazhi Xiao, are capitalizing on specific consumer trends and achieving significant growth in brand rankings [20][22] - The CBI index serves as a lens to identify changes in consumer demand and potential growth opportunities across various sectors [24] Group 4 - Pop Mart's financial performance shows a significant increase in overseas revenue, yet the stock has faced volatility due to market sentiment rather than fundamentals [26][28] - The brand maintains a leading position in the industry despite short-term fluctuations, indicating strong brand loyalty and potential for future growth [29][30] - The luxury gold market is experiencing challenges as competition increases, impacting customer loyalty and market positioning for brands like Laopufeng [40][35] Group 5 - The beauty industry is witnessing a resurgence for brands like Chanel and YSL as they adapt to new marketing channels and consumer preferences [22] - The investment landscape is influenced by varying investor strategies, with short-term traders reacting differently than long-term investors to market signals [34][41] - The Chinese consumer market is complex and requires a multifaceted approach to uncover hidden opportunities [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly on the liquor sector, with a focus on high-quality companies for long-term investment [3][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, which has been highlighted by authoritative media and government officials since mid-December 2025. It notes that the high-end liquor prices have recently declined, indicating a market shift towards finding a balance between volume and price [3][7]. - For 2026, the report anticipates a double-digit decline in sales volume in Q1, with a potential stabilization in Q2 and a turning point in fundamentals by Q3. If the fundamentals recover as expected, a dual boost in valuation and performance is anticipated towards the end of 2026 and into 2027 [3][7]. - The report recommends several key liquor companies, including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting attention to other brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [3][7]. - In the consumer goods sector, the report highlights opportunities in the supply chain related to condiments, frozen foods, and dairy products, recommending companies such as Anjijia, Yili, and Qianhe Flavoring [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.26% last week, with liquor down 2.79%, underperforming the broader market [6][33]. - The report notes that the liquor sector's performance is closely tied to the upcoming Spring Festival, with expectations of improved market conditions compared to the previous months [11]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The report indicates that the food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 1.95 percentage points, with the liquor sector lagging behind by 2.48 percentage points [33][34]. 3. Key Company Updates - Guizhou Moutai announced a significant adjustment to its online sales strategy, which is expected to have a profound impact on both the company and the industry. The adjustment includes a new product matrix aimed at better consumer engagement and market pricing [8][11]. - The report also mentions that Moutai's product prices have seen a decline, with the retail price for its flagship product dropping to 1490 yuan per bottle, reflecting a broader trend in the high-end liquor market [8][19].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for major liquor companies to focus on supply-demand matching and price-volume balance, especially in light of the weak demand and inventory reduction strategies being adopted by distributors [8][15][16] - The overall investment recommendation for the liquor sector remains "Buy," with a focus on companies that are expected to achieve a dual bottom in valuation and performance [8][9] Group 1: Industry Overview - The 2026 liquor distributor conference highlighted that major liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye are setting more pragmatic growth targets for 2026, with a general trend of lower revenue growth expectations compared to previous years [8][15] - The report notes that the liquor industry is increasingly emphasizing the importance of core products within various price segments, with clearer distinctions between product price bands [16][19] - Companies are prioritizing the interests of distributors, focusing on price order reinforcement and inventory management, while also exploring new sales models such as consignment and instant retail [16][19] Group 2: Company-Specific Strategies - Kweichow Moutai is focusing on market-oriented reforms to ensure consumers can access its products fairly and quickly, while also maintaining a stable supply of its flagship products [19][20] - Wuliangye aims to achieve high-quality sales through a focus on core products and enhancing brand value, with a strategy that includes performance evaluations and a mechanism for eliminating underperforming distributors [22][23] - Shanxi Fenjiu is pursuing a dual strategy of national expansion and targeting younger consumers, while also enhancing its brand collaboration across its product lines [24][25] Group 3: Market Performance and Valuation - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 0.6% in the week of December 29 to January 2, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.7 percentage points [31][34] - As of January 2, the food and beverage sector's PE-TTM valuation stands at 21.1X, while the liquor sector's PE-TTM is at 18.3X, indicating a relative valuation of 1.49 and 1.29 times compared to the CSI 300 [47][52] - The report tracks the pricing of key liquor products, noting a decrease in the price of Moutai and an increase in the price of Wuliangye, reflecting market dynamics [53]