Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the 2025 Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day is lackluster, with a year-on-year decline of approximately 20% despite a month-on-month improvement from July to August [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The liquor sales during the 2025 double festival are reported to be flat, with a significant demand gap remaining, particularly in the high-end and sub-high-end segments [1][4]. - The mid-to-low-end liquor sales are performing better than high-end and sub-high-end products, with banquet brands showing faster sales velocity [1][3]. - Major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines, while Fenjiu maintains upward momentum with stable pricing [1][3]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The recovery of government and business consumption demand is expected to take time, impacting high-end and sub-high-end liquor consumption in the short term [2][4]. - Attention should be focused on supply-side contraction signals from companies post-festival, which could catalyze the sector [2][4]. - Price indicators are anticipated to turn positive in 2026, potentially driving inflation and corporate profitability, leading to a sustained recovery in liquor demand [1][4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring companies that are relatively healthy and have a positive market atmosphere, such as Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye [4]. - Companies that are innovating in channels and models, like Yingjia Gongjiu and Zhenjiu Lidu, are also highlighted as potential growth contributors [4].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3872.88 points, up 1.17%, with a total trading volume of 1.7438 trillion yuan [1] - As of the current date, 94 A-shares have surpassed their annual moving average [1] Stocks Surpassing Annual Moving Average - Notable stocks with significant deviation rates include: - Kaiwang Technology (301182) with a deviation rate of 15.21% and a daily increase of 17.68% [1] - Wanli Stone (002785) with a deviation rate of 9.52% and a daily increase of 10.01% [1] - Daqing Huake (000985) with a deviation rate of 9.44% and a daily increase of 10.00% [1] - Other stocks with smaller deviation rates include: - China CNR (601990) and Beidahuang (000995), both just above their annual moving average [1] Additional Stocks with Positive Performance - Other stocks showing positive performance include: - Tonghui Information (430090) with a daily increase of 6.20% and a deviation rate of 4.69% [1] - Huangtai Liquor (000995) with a daily increase of 5.17% and a deviation rate of 4.47% [1] - Nanjing Securities (601990) with a daily increase of 4.09% and a deviation rate of 4.00% [1]

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant rally on September 29, with the Food ETF (515710) reaching an intraday price increase of up to 1.3% before settling at a 0.98% gain [1][3] - Key stocks in the sector showed strong performance, with Yangyuan Beverage soaring over 7%, and major liquor brands like Luzhou Laojiao and Gujing Gongji rising over 3% [1][3] - The Food ETF (515710) has seen substantial net inflows, with a total of 55.71 million yuan in net subscriptions over the last five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2 - Sales of popular gift items such as liquor and mooncakes surged ahead of the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays, with liquor sales on Meituan increasing approximately eightfold year-on-year [3][4] - The current valuation of the food and beverage sector is considered low, with the food index's price-to-earnings ratio at 20.21, placing it in the lower 5.88% percentile over the past decade, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [3][4] - Analysts predict a recovery in the liquor sector due to government policies promoting high-quality development, with expectations for Maotai's prices to rebound as market conditions improve [4][5] Group 3 - The food and beverage industry is witnessing significant policy catalysts, such as the upcoming public consultation on the national standards for prepared food safety, which may benefit leading brands [4][5] - The Food ETF (515710) is strategically positioned, with approximately 60% of its holdings in leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, and nearly 40% in other beverage and food segments [5] - Investors can also access core assets in the food and beverage sector through the Food ETF linked funds [5]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu's stock price has shown fluctuations with a recent increase of 2.06%, while the company has experienced a net outflow of funds from major investors [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 29, Shanxi Fenjiu's stock price reached 195.10 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 238.015 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 9.51%, but it has seen a decline of 0.46% over the last five trading days and 2.74% over the last twenty days [1] - In the last sixty days, the stock price has risen by 13.11% [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 23.964 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.35% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 8.505 billion CNY, showing a slight increase of 1.13% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Shanxi Fenjiu increased to 104,400, marking a rise of 52.38% [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 34.38% to 11,687 shares [2] Group 4: Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Shanxi Fenjiu has distributed a total of 24.325 billion CNY in dividends, with 16.775 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3] Group 5: Institutional Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, major institutional shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 48.9991 million shares, an increase of 2.0136 million shares from the previous period [3] - Other notable institutional shareholders include the China Securities Index White Wine Index A and E Fund Blue Chip Select Mixed Fund, with significant increases in their holdings [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8][56]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is expected to face pressure during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival due to cautious inventory stocking and a significant impact on group purchasing channels. However, traditional channels like instant retail and live streaming are experiencing rapid growth, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [6][54]. - The report highlights opportunities in high-growth segments such as prepared dishes and snacks, driven by policy support and market expansion. The introduction of national standards for prepared dishes is expected to benefit leading companies in the sector [7][55]. - The beverage sector is approaching peak season, with a focus on new consumer opportunities and retail channel transformations. Companies like "Naixue's Tea" and "Chabaidao" are highlighted for their growth potential [8][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly News Summary - Industry news includes the selection of five liquor companies for the Zhejiang Province Industrial Heritage list and a 1.7% growth in Guizhou's liquor and tea manufacturing from January to August [6][20]. - Company news features Guizhou Moutai's investment in a biotechnology company and the launch of "Longma Liquor" by Langjiu [6][21]. 2. Key Company Feedback - The report provides insights into the performance of key companies in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on stock price movements and market trends [32][34]. - The white liquor industry saw a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72%, while revenue reached 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [36][38]. 3. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the white liquor sector such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks like JiuGui Jiu and SheDe JiuYe [6][54]. - In the snack sector, companies like Wancheng Group and Anjiu Food are recommended due to their market positioning and growth potential [7][55]. 4. Key Company and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with their respective stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and investment ratings, all indicating a "Buy" recommendation [10][25]. - Notable companies include Guizhou Moutai with a stock price of 1435.00 yuan and an EPS of 68.64 for 2024, and Wuliangye with a stock price of 120.17 yuan and an EPS of 8.21 for 2024 [10][25].

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage ETF Tianhong (159736) has shown significant market activity, with a notable inflow of funds and rising stock prices among key components, indicating a positive trend in the sector [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Tianhong food and beverage ETF (159736) experienced a slight decline of 0.28% as of the latest report, with a premium rate of 0.04% and frequent premium trading observed [1]. - The ETF has seen a net inflow of nearly 170 million yuan over the past nine trading days, with a total circulation of 7.62 billion shares, reaching a historical high [2]. Group 2: Component Stocks - Key component stocks such as Yangyuan Beverage, Gujing Gongjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and others have shown price increases, with Yangyuan Beverage rising over 4% [2]. - The ETF closely tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, which includes major stocks from the beverage, packaged food, and meat industries, featuring top holdings like Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Wuliangye [2]. Group 3: Market Trends - Reports indicate a significant increase in the prices of premium liquor, with notable price hikes for products like Feitian Moutai and other well-known brands over a short period [3]. - The liquor market is experiencing a surge in demand, particularly in the mid-range price segment (50-200 yuan), with increased sales reported across various regions [3]. - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to boost tourism and consumer spending, with a projected 130% increase in travel compared to the previous year, indicating a potential for strong sales in the food and beverage sector [4].

Industry Dynamics - Eight liquor companies made it to the list of China's top 500 manufacturing enterprises, including Sichuan Yibin Wuliangye Group, Guizhou Moutai, and Luzhou Laojiao [2] - The grape harvest season in the Helan Mountain East region started in mid-August and is expected to last until early October, with an estimated 130,000 tons of wine grapes to be harvested this year [3] - The "Moutai Cup" Chinese (Sauce Aroma) Baijiu Body Design Competition was held, with participants from 11 provinces, and a contestant from Guizhou Moutai winning first place [3] - The first China (Qionglai) Spirits Competition was launched, aiming to enhance the international brand recognition of Qionglai liquor [3] - The 2025 China International Huangjiu Industry Expo is scheduled for November 7-12 in Shaoxing, Zhejiang, featuring six exhibition areas and multiple related events [4] Company Dynamics - Wuliangye's chairman emphasized focusing on five strategies to enhance market presence and consumer engagement during a recent market research tour [5] - Moutai reported a 20% year-on-year increase in terminal sales for September, indicating a positive market trend [5] - Langjiu launched its flagship product "Longma Lang," which combines strong and sauce aroma techniques, as part of its ongoing product strategy [5] - The eighth "Four Famous Baijiu Cup" basketball invitation tournament concluded, with the Shaanxi team winning the championship [6] - Tianyoude Liquor, the only listed company in Qinghai's liquor industry, is focusing on local特色 and has developed a tourist attraction that has become popular among visitors [6]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the liquor sector, particularly for high-end brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, indicating a left-side configuration opportunity in the white liquor segment [3][12][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the core products in the liquor industry, such as Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye, have seen a rebound in wholesale prices, attributed to effective channel management by manufacturers [2][12]. - It is anticipated that the sales volume in the white liquor sector will decline by approximately 20% year-on-year, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the market [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the increasing diversification of purchasing channels for liquor, with a notable shift towards online and new media platforms, which is reshaping consumer behavior [2][12][14]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - The report notes a recovery in the wholesale prices of key products, driven by improved channel management and a positive reception during the upcoming Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [2][12]. - It suggests that the white liquor sector is entering a phase where inventory levels can be significantly reduced, leading to a temporary release of price pressure [12][14]. - Recommendations include focusing on high-end brands with strong market positions and exploring potential catalysts in the broader liquor market [3][12][14]. Beer - The beer sector is experiencing steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-draft channels and soft drinks [14]. - The report encourages continued attention to the beer sector due to its solid performance and dividend levels [3][14]. Yellow Wine - The yellow wine industry is seeing price increases among leading brands, which may lead to a more stable competitive landscape [14]. - The report highlights the importance of marketing and product innovation in the yellow wine sector as it approaches peak season [14]. Snacks - The snack industry is maintaining high growth, with new retail channels expanding rapidly and product diversity increasing [4][15]. - The report suggests that the upcoming holiday season will boost demand for snack products, particularly nut gift boxes [4][15]. Soft Drinks - The soft drink sector is nearing the end of its peak season, with segments like energy drinks and sugar-free teas showing strong growth [4][16]. - The report indicates that traditional categories are facing challenges, but health-oriented products are performing well [4][16]. Condiments - The condiment sector is stabilizing, with expectations of demand recovery in the restaurant chain segment [5][17]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages and improving profit margins [5][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu, while recommending an increase in holdings for companies like Yingjia Grape Wine and Kuaijie Wine [8][33]. Core Insights - The demand gap remains significant, with a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, despite a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - The report highlights a continued "Matthew Effect," where leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye are gaining market share at the expense of lower-tier competitors [2][8]. - The recovery of high-end liquor sales is slow, with a notable increase in demand for mid-range and low-end products, particularly in banquet settings [3][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Sales Feedback for the Holiday Season - Sales performance during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day was generally flat, with a 20% decline compared to the previous year, although there was a month-on-month improvement [2][11]. - Mid-range and low-end liquor sales outperformed high-end products, with brands like Moutai and Wuliangye gradually capturing market share from competitors due to price declines [2][12]. 2. Company Tracking - Guizhou Moutai's sales are on track, with a completion rate of approximately 75% for the year, and inventory levels are stable at 0.5-1 month [26][31]. - Wuliangye's sales completion rate is around 70%, with inventory levels between 1-2 months, and recent promotional efforts have improved dealer confidence [26][31]. - Shanxi Fenjiu maintains a completion rate of 75%-80%, with stable inventory levels and a strong market presence for its products [27][31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are showing resilience and potential for recovery, particularly those that have adjusted their strategies ahead of the market, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [32][33]. - The anticipated recovery in demand for white liquor is expected to be supported by a positive price index in 2026, which may lead to inflation and increased profitability for companies in the sector [4][32].

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Fenjiu Sealing Ceremony has commenced, emphasizing the themes of "Respect for Heaven, Love for People, Heritage, and Innovation," while celebrating the 110th anniversary of Fenjiu's gold medal at the Panama International Exposition [1] Group 1: Event Overview - The ceremony has been held ten times and has become a significant cultural IP within the industry, showcasing Fenjiu's commitment to producing quality liquor and preserving its heritage [1] - The event serves as a platform to promote the cultural confidence of Chinese liquor, particularly focusing on the "clear, pure, and righteous" quality of Fenjiu [1] Group 2: Themes and Cultural Significance - The 2025 ceremony introduces a new theme of "Innovation" alongside the existing themes, creating four thematic sections that reflect the spirit of Fenjiu culture [1] - The four themes are: - "Respect for Heaven," focusing on reverence for nature and gratitude for its gifts - "Love for People," highlighting the emotional connection and warmth in the liquor - "Heritage," emphasizing the continuity of skills and the enduring spirit - "Innovation," showcasing the determination to uphold traditions while pursuing future dreams [1]