Report Summary 1. Report Information - The report is the Pulp Morning Report, released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on October 22, 2025 [2] 2. SP Main Contract Closing Price - On October 21, 2025, the SP main contract closing price was 5170.00. The closing prices and related data from October 15 - 21, 2025, are as follows: - Closing prices: 4856.00 (Oct 15 - 16), 5122.00 (Oct 17), 5156.00 (Oct 20), 5170.00 (Oct 21) - Dollar - converted prices: 594.54 (Oct 15), 594.45 (Oct 16), 627.35 (Oct 17), 631.87 (Oct 20 - 21) - Daily price changes: 0.20636% (Oct 15), 0.00000% (Oct 16), 5.47776% (Oct 17), 0.66380% (Oct 20), 0.27153% (Oct 21) - Shandong Yinxing basis: 734 (Oct 15), 744 (Oct 16), 478 (Oct 17), 444 (Oct 20), 430 (Oct 21) - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis: 729 (Oct 15 - 16), 438 (Oct 17), 404 (Oct 20), 390 (Oct 21) [3] 3. Import Price and Profit - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import prices and profits of different pulp brands are as follows: - Canadian Golden Lion (CFR): port dollar price 780, Shandong RMB price 6200, import profit - 145.57 - Canadian Lion (CFR): port dollar price 730, Shandong RMB price 5350, import profit - 593.29 - Chilean Yinxing (CFR letter of credit 90 days): port dollar price 700, Shandong RMB price 5600, import profit - 101.92 [4] 4. Pulp and Paper Price and Margin - Pulp prices (Oct 15 - 21, 2025): - National average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively - Shandong average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6245.00, 4775.00, 5400.00, and 3600.00 respectively [4] - Paper prices and margins: - Cultural paper (Oct 16 - 21, 2025): double - offset index and double - copper index remained at 5725 and 5670 respectively; double - offset profit margin remained at - 0.0774%, double - copper profit margin remained at 12.9677% - Packaging paper (Oct 16 - 21, 2025): white - card index remained at 4350, white - card profit margin remained at - 10.3133% - Tissue paper (Oct 16 - 21, 2025): tissue index increased from 839 to 841, tissue profit margin changed from 6.9359% (Oct 16) to 7.0696% (Oct 21) [4] 5. Pulp Price Spreads - From October 15 - 21, 2025, the price spreads between different types of pulp were as follows: - Softwood - hardwood spread: 1330 (Oct 15), 1340 (Oct 16 - 17), 1350 (Oct 20 - 21) - Softwood - natural spread: 190 (Oct 15), 200 (Oct 16 - 21) - Softwood - chemimechanical spread: 1790 (Oct 15), 1800 (Oct 16 - 21) - Softwood - waste paper spread: 4014 (Oct 15), 4024 (Oct 16 - 21) [4]

焦煤日报 2025/10/22 研究中心黑色团队 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1575.00 | 0.00 | 25.00 | 72.00 | -1.56% Peak Downs | 204.50 | 0.00 | -0.50 | 1.50 | -7.70 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1100.00 | -15.00 | 58.00 | 100.00 | -7.17% Goonyella | 204.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | -7.70 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1420.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 70.00 | -16.47% 盘面05 | 1265.00 | -32.00 | 43.00 | 0.50 | -10.60% | | 安泽主焦 | 1550.00 | 0.00 | 20.00 | 50.00 | -13.89% ...

Core Insights - The Chinese futures market has reached a milestone with total funds exceeding 2 trillion yuan, reflecting a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1] - There has been a significant increase in new account openings, driven by interest in precious metals and stock index futures [1] - The overall performance of the futures industry is recovering, with net profits for the first eight months of 2025 reaching 76.5 billion yuan, a new high in recent years [7] Market Growth - As of September 2025, the number of effective clients in the market has surpassed 2.7 million, a 14% increase year-on-year, with 650,000 new clients added in the first three quarters [2] - Institutional clients have shown steady growth of 3%, while overseas clients have increased by 11%, with traders distributed across 40 countries and regions [2] Client Segmentation - Industrial clients and overseas clients are identified as key growth drivers in the domestic futures market, with industrial clients focusing on risk management and strategic planning [3][5] - A record 1,583 A-share listed companies have issued hedging announcements this year, surpassing the total for 2024, indicating a growing engagement in risk management [3] Service Enhancement - Futures companies are enhancing the service capabilities of frontline staff to meet the increasing demands of industrial and institutional clients [4] - Staff are required to possess in-depth knowledge of industry structures, market dynamics, and risk points, along with strong communication skills to effectively address client needs [4] International Engagement - The acceleration of the Chinese futures market's opening has led to significant interest from overseas clients, with many potential clients ready to participate actively [6] - Feedback from European client interactions indicates a strong familiarity with market entry rules and a readiness to engage in trading [6] Financial Performance - As of August 2025, the total trading volume reached 65.23 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 12.34 billion yuan for the period [7] - There is a notable performance disparity among futures companies, with profits concentrated in a few firms, while traditional brokerage competition remains intense [7] - Specific A-share listed futures companies have shown varied performance, with some experiencing significant profit increases while others have reported losses [7][8]

| | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 同比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 山西准一湿熄 | 1482.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 54.61 | -21.49% 高炉开工率 | 90.33 | | -0.22 | -0.02 | 3.22% | | 河北准一干熄 | 1735.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -4.14% 铁水日均产量 | 240.95 | | -0.59 | -0.07 | 2.81% | | 山东准一干熄 | 1660.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -19.61% 盘面05 | 1797 | 15.50 | -16.50 | 53.00 | -17.36% | | 江苏准一干熄 | 1700.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 55.00 | -19.24% 盘面09 | 1876 | 11.50 | -29.00 | 363.50 | -13.85 ...

焦煤日报 2025/10/20 研究中心黑色团队 | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 月变化 | 年变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 柳林主焦 | 1575.00 | 25.00 | 25.00 | 174.00 | -1.56% Peak Downs | 204.50 | 0.00 | -1.50 | 1.50 | -10.20 | | 原煤口岸库提价 | 1051.00 | 11.00 | 23.00 | 101.00 | -15.58% Goonyella | 204.50 | 0.00 | -1.00 | 0.50 | -10.20 | | 沙河驿蒙5# | 1420.00 | 0.00 | -30.00 | 70.00 | -18.86% 盘面05 | 1244.00 | 22.00 | -18.00 | 55.00 | -17.97% | | 安泽主焦 | 1550.00 | 20.00 | 20.00 | 130.00 ...

Market Overview - The diversified financial sector experienced a decline of 2.68% on October 17, with Hainan Huate leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3839.76, down 1.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12688.94, down 3.04% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers included *ST Rindong, which rose by 4.38% to a closing price of 6.91, and Bohai Leasing, which increased by 1.78% to 3.44 [1] - Hainan Huate saw the largest decline, dropping 6.96% to a closing price of 7.09, with a trading volume of 3.57 million shares and a transaction value of 2.50 billion [2] - Other significant decliners included Sichuan Shuangma (-5.82%), State Grid Yingda (-4.77%), and Sinopec Capital (-4.72%) [2] Capital Flow - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 666 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 602 million [2] - The table of capital flow indicates that Bohai Leasing had a net inflow of 85.51 million from institutional investors, while it faced a net outflow of 21.25 million from speculative funds [3] - The overall trend shows a mixed capital flow, with institutional investors withdrawing while retail investors remained active in the market [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - For copper, maintain a callback - buying strategy considering the continuous tightness of the ore end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,000 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay. Keep an eye on terminal demand, and hold long - term positions on dips [1]. - For zinc, due to the poor domestic fundamentals and the opening of the export window affected by export profits, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider gradually taking profits on domestic - foreign positive spreads and pay attention to the opportunity of reverse spreads in the far - month contracts. Also, pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are weak. Although the geopolitical risks in Indonesia have eased, there are still disturbances at the mining end and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [4]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals remain weak overall. There is increased uncertainty in trade frictions in the short - term macro - aspect, and the Indonesian policy end has a certain motivation to support prices [9]. - For lead, the lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock between 17,000 and 17,400 next week, and the subsequent destocking strength in October remains to be verified, with a weak outlook [12]. - For tin, follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium - to - long - term, hold positions on dips close to the cost line [15]. - For industrial silicon, the supply and demand are in balance in Q4 with few potential contradictions in the short - term. In the long - term, the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [16]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of a strong "anti - involution" commodity sentiment, the price has high elasticity after the supply - side disturbance speculation is realized, and strong downward support before the disturbance is realized [16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of SHFE copper changed from 45 to 70, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased from 3197 to 2362, and the LME inventory decreased from 139,400 to 137,450 [1]. - **Market Situation**: Affected by the Trump's tariff announcement, LME copper dropped 4.5% on Friday. The impact of this tariff conflict is estimated to be lower than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The smelting end has over - expected production cuts and moderate inventory accumulation this week. After the sharp decline in copper price on Friday, the volume of pricing and receiving goods is expected to increase significantly next week, driving inventory destocking [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased from 20,990 to 20,950, and the LME inventory decreased from 508,825 to 495,325 [1]. - **Market Situation**: The operating production capacity is increasing slightly. The production schedule of photovoltaic modules has stabilized, and the proportion of molten aluminum has rebounded significantly in September. Due to the holiday effect, there is seasonal inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots and bars. The global economic recovery is showing signs, but the Sino - US economic and trade relations are uncertain, leading to a certain divergence in the internal and external market trends [1]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased from 22,300 to 21,920, and the LME inventory decreased from 37,950 to 38,300 [2]. - **Market Situation**: This week, the domestic zinc price fluctuated and rose due to the US shutdown sentiment and the opening of the export window. The domestic TC decreased further, and the imported TC increased. The domestic zinc ore is expected to be tighter from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, while the overseas zinc ore increased significantly in the second quarter. The demand is seasonally weak domestically, and the European demand is average overseas [2]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the SHFE nickel spot price changed slightly, and the LME inventory decreased from 6894 to 6222 [3]. - **Market Situation**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, the demand is weak overall, and the domestic inventory remains stable while the overseas inventory is continuously accumulating. The Indonesian mining end has continuous disturbances, and the policy end has the motivation to support prices [3][4]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coils remained unchanged at 13,550, and the price of 304 hot - rolled coils decreased from 12,700 to 12,450 [9]. - **Market Situation**: The steel mills' production schedule in October increased slightly compared to the previous month. The demand is mainly for rigid needs. The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. There is inventory accumulation during the holiday in Xijiao and Foshan, and the warehouse receipts remain stable [9]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the spot premium of lead changed from - 195 to - 210, and the LME inventory decreased from 237,000 to 252,000 [12]. - **Market Situation**: The lead price rose this week due to macro - factors. The supply of recycled lead is expected to increase by 30,000 tons in October. The demand may weaken after the National Day holiday. The refined - scrap price difference is - 25, and the LME registered warehouse receipts decreased by 100,000 tons. The lead price is expected to maintain a high - level shock next week [12]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the tin position decreased from 71,221 to 63,683, and the LME inventory remained at 2575 [15]. - **Market Situation**: The tin price moved up this week due to macro - factors. The domestic smelting plants have reduced production, and the overseas supply is expected to recover in October. The demand for solder has a slight recovery during the peak season. The domestic fundamentals are short - term in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the 421 Yunnan basis changed from - 185 to - 105, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 50,281 to 50,291 [16]. - **Market Situation**: A leading enterprise in Xinjiang resumed production this week. The start - up in Sichuan and Yunnan is stable, and there is a strong expectation of production reduction in November. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in balance in Q4, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom in the long - term [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From October 10th to 16th, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price remained at 73,000, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 42,669 to 30,456 [16]. - **Market Situation**: The lithium carbonate price fluctuated this week. The overseas mines have a strong willingness to support prices, and the salt plants have a low acceptance of high - priced lithium ore. The pre - holiday inventory - building is coming to an end, and the spot basis is weakening. The supply is in an over - capacity cycle, but there is inventory destocking due to seasonal factors and demand growth [16].

Report Information - Report Name: Coking Coal Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 - Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Price Information - **Domestic Coking Coal Prices**: The latest price of Liulin Main Coking Coal is 1550.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 149.00, and an annual decrease of 3.13%. The price of Yuanmei Port Warehouse Pick-up is 1040.00, with a daily decrease of 3.00, a weekly increase of 6.00, a monthly increase of 105.00, and an annual decrease of 16.13%. The price of Shaheyi Meng 5 is 1420.00, with a daily and weekly decrease of 30.00, a monthly increase of 40.00, and an annual decrease of 18.86%. The price of Anze Main Coking Coal is 1530.00, with no daily or weekly change, a monthly increase of 110.00, and an annual decrease of 15.00 [2]. - **International Coking Coal Prices**: The latest price of Peak Downs is 204.50, with a daily increase of 0.50, a weekly decrease of 1.00, a monthly increase of 2.00, and an annual decrease of 12.20. The price of Goonyella is 204.50, with a daily increase of 0.50, a weekly decrease of 1.00, a monthly increase of 1.50, and an annual decrease of 12.20 [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of Futures Contract 05 is 1244.00, with a daily increase of 22.00, a weekly decrease of 18.00, a monthly increase of 55.00, and an annual decrease of 17.97%. The price of Futures Contract 09 is 1327.50, with a daily increase of 22.50, a weekly decrease of 19.50, a monthly increase of 358.50, and an annual decrease of 13.18%. The price of Futures Contract 01 is 1162.00, with a daily increase of 15.00, a weekly decrease of 3.00, a monthly increase of 46.50, and an annual decrease of 20.22 [2]. Inventory Information - **Total Inventory**: The total inventory is 3319.57, with a weekly increase of 40.39, a monthly decrease of 53.41, and an annual decrease of 12.87% [2]. - **Sub - inventories**: Coal mine inventory is 205.41, with a weekly increase of 9.55, a monthly decrease of 27.38, and an annual decrease of 19.47%. Port inventory is 294.99, with no weekly change, a monthly increase of 23.88, and an annual decrease of 27.62%. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 781.13, with a weekly decrease of 6.93, a monthly decrease of 12.60, and an annual increase of 6.33%. Coking coking coal inventory is 959.06, with a weekly decrease of 78.65, a monthly increase of 75.52, and an annual increase of 2.55% [2]. Other Information - **Coking Capacity Utilization**: The coking capacity utilization rate is 74.24, with a weekly decrease of 0.94, a monthly decrease of 1.63, and no annual change [2]. - **Coking Coke Inventory**: The coking coke inventory is 84.72, with a weekly decrease of 0.81, a monthly decrease of 1.31, and an annual decrease of 2.06% [2]. - **Futures Basis and Spread**: The 05 basis is - 81.01, with a daily decrease of 22.00, a weekly decrease of 11.89, a monthly increase of 93.28, and an annual decrease of 107.96. The 09 basis is - 164.51, with a daily decrease of 22.50, a weekly decrease of 10.39, a monthly decrease of 210.22, and an annual decrease of 12.39. The 01 basis is 0.99, with a daily decrease of 15.00, a weekly decrease of 26.89, a monthly increase of 101.78, and an annual decrease of 0.99. The 5 - 9 spread is - 83.50, with a daily decrease of 0.50, a weekly increase of 1.50, a monthly decrease of 303.50, and an annual increase of 5.68. The 9 - 1 spread is 165.50, with a daily increase of 7.50, a weekly decrease of 16.50, a monthly increase of 312.00, and an annual increase of 1.28. The 1 - 5 spread is - 82.00, with a daily decrease of 7.00, a weekly increase of 15.00, a monthly decrease of 8.50, and an annual increase of 0.37 [2]

1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 4000.00 4500.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 柳林主焦 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 600.00 1100.00 1600.00 2100.00 2600.00 3100.00 3600.00 4100.00 4600.00 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 蒙煤仓单 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 蒙古口岸原煤库提价 A10.5，V28，S<0.6%，G83 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 1月 普氏峰景 20 ...

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